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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #702,981
  • Nov 2, 2022 8:51pm Nov 2, 2022 8:51pm
Gbpusd sell @ 1.1419, Eurusd sell @ 9836
TP 1.1365 9810
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post14207449

Trade Safe
  • #702,982
  • Nov 2, 2022 9:09pm Nov 2, 2022 9:09pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Hi Fardeen. on subject of GOLD Agree with you, it is interesting to trade it. Also, it is the place to get perfect timing for your N3, if not the drawdown (on pullback ) can hurt your account. Trading gold need high degree of concentration and will drain your energy as the spike can range between 40 to 80 pips. If one is skillful, it can catch the timing of pullback, this is a very profitable trade. Example below in comparison to football analogy ( yesterday post) The Final score is impassive, but live trade is far from smooth sailing.{image}...
Agreed, the price formation on a 5mins & 15mins TF is very unpredictable and very volatile.
It is truly the big guys' game there.
Btw is that a tick chart on the right?
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #702,983
  • Nov 2, 2022 9:22pm Nov 2, 2022 9:22pm
Quoting navk
Long trades Closed quick. Let it come down a bit... to take long. My aim is to take long on every dip until London open {image}
Thanks. Definitely..
  • #702,984
  • Nov 2, 2022 9:35pm Nov 2, 2022 9:35pm
Was reading Powell speech, it didnt come out as expected. Glad I closed my position yesterday, cause I thought on Dec 14 we might see FED pivot which apparently will not come soon.
EOY neutral target went from 4-4.5% to 4.5-4.75% or 4.75-5%
Not see a 100bps hike coming tho.
The Money market already price in a large proportion of the 75bps hike
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #702,985
  • Nov 2, 2022 9:46pm Nov 2, 2022 9:46pm
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  • #702,986
  • Nov 2, 2022 10:02pm Nov 2, 2022 10:02pm
Quoting Jollson
Gbpusd sell @ 1.1419, Eurusd sell @ 9836 TP 1.1365 9810 https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post14207449 Trade Safe
All trades running good so far.
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https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post14207521
Trade Safe
  • #702,987
  • Nov 2, 2022 10:25pm Nov 2, 2022 10:25pm
Quoting elude
The twist of the euphoria. Accuracy of the forecast shouldn't be always in the counting, euphoria at first then comes the real-thing.
Thanks for remind me...
Euphoria leads to over confident and over trade.

I'm here to cross check with Pat chiko...
Normally when my trade allign with him, success rate very high...
Peace Yo!
  • #702,988
  • Nov 2, 2022 10:29pm Nov 2, 2022 10:29pm
Quoting buddha-
{image}
Hi Buddha

Your chart looks intriguing as to what are these zones, interested to hear from you more on it.

Regards
bilal
"Exchange of hands"
  • #702,989
  • Nov 2, 2022 10:32pm Nov 2, 2022 10:32pm
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} Agreed, the price formation on a 5mins & 15mins TF is very unpredictable and very volatile. It is truly the big guys' game there. Btw is that a tick chart on the right?
We dont need to be in every of the move, even if my bias gets wrong my setups should be right so to get some +20pips, and most important is preservation of the capital nothing else.

Good day
bilal
"Exchange of hands"
  • #702,990
  • Nov 2, 2022 10:39pm Nov 2, 2022 10:39pm
Quoting Fardeen1209
Was reading Powell speech, it didnt come out as expected. Glad I closed my position yesterday, cause I thought on Dec 14 we might see FED pivot which apparently will not come soon. EOY neutral target went from 4-4.5% to 4.5-4.75% or 4.75-5% Not see a 100bps hike coming tho. The Money market already price in a large proportion of the 75bps hike
Some how made up to the election neXt week, and there are several aspects say geopolitical and intra country scenarios, news statements, fundamentals of monetary and fiscal policies and technical analysis on top.

The more i understand, the more difficult it gets to choose which one to follow at present, so all it comes down to trade what we see even after knowing the facts and news.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #702,991
  • Nov 2, 2022 10:41pm Nov 2, 2022 10:41pm
Quoting navk
My long entry with momentum candle + 4hr candle + support 430 bucks booked. Previous 850 + 430 = 1280 bucks today. If there is no news event, i might have held long entry, but i am happy with this result. {image}
Hi Navk

I wanted to ask yesterday but thought to ask you later, what are these histograms if you like to share please.

TIA
regards
bilal
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #702,992
  • Nov 2, 2022 11:20pm Nov 2, 2022 11:20pm
GU 2H chart
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!! Radha Radha !!
  • #702,993
  • Nov 2, 2022 11:31pm Nov 2, 2022 11:31pm
Structure is dowtrend with LH and LL
Will we see a Hawkish disappointment from BOE today?
i.e. Hike by only 50bps instead of 75bps
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #702,994
  • Nov 2, 2022 11:33pm Nov 2, 2022 11:33pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} GU - Super Thursday An important of the event for the quarterly monetary policy statement that makes it the “Super Thursday”. Is The “Old Lady” going to do 75 bps rate hike or 50 bps move. ? As the fears of the UK’s recession, the BOE is less likely to impress the GBP/USD by announcing the 75 bps rate hike. If BoE announce an unexpected 50 bps rate lift-off, it would be an outright dovish outcome. Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference by will be also eagerly awaited. Economists believe that the UK economy is in recession. UK is having...
I set pending 1449-89 and stop 1530.
hopefully get fill and one more push down first
PA Return This Week: 35.2%
  • #702,995
  • Nov 2, 2022 11:57pm Nov 2, 2022 11:57pm
New UK PM already talking about higher taxes on the rich to help poor pay energy costs, doesn't seem like a dovish approach to problem solving. Just a thought.
  • #702,996
  • Nov 3, 2022 12:09am Nov 3, 2022 12:09am
Quoting LeongPuiy
{quote} I set pending 1449-89 and stop 1530. hopefully get fill and one more push down first
worth a shot if it gets there.
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  • #702,997
  • Nov 3, 2022 12:37am Nov 3, 2022 12:37am
1.1470 keep pressure for bears
Live trade ~ GBPUSD only. No chart! Follow at your own risk!
  • #702,998
  • Nov 3, 2022 12:51am Nov 3, 2022 12:51am
Let's see where we stand for my long to 1.18.

The whole trade package of 8 trades now has a floating P/L of +$16. I could just leave it there for it to run, and come back when it hits 1.18. Could take a month, 3 months, who knows, right?

Fed yesterday hike was 75 bps. I expect them to go on with hikes until early 2024. No reason for Fed to stop. Slow down, may be but not stop. Core PCE for Sept 2022 was at 5.1%. I guess Fed would just continue until interest rate is above core PCE. We can now expect 6.0% to 6.25% interest rates before Fed stops hiking.

Here's how I see it:

  1. Dec '22 (75 bps) --> 4.5 to 4.75%
  2. Mar '23 (50 bps) --> 5.0 to 5.25%
  3. Jun '23 (25 bps) --> 5.25 to 5.5%
  4. Sep '23 (25 bps) --> 5.5 to 5.75%
  5. Nov '23 (25 bps) --> 5.75 to 6%
  6. Dec '23 (25 bps) --> 6.0 to 6.25%

On Sterling front, now with Sunak in No.10, they'll try to prop up the pound. Just to give an impression everything was good. We may see some volatility on the gilt market, but overall, Sterling should rise regardless of UK inflation data.

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  • #702,999
  • Edited 1:44am Nov 3, 2022 1:03am | Edited 1:44am
Am I only one who thinks Rates will be increased by 50 bps and not 75 bps.

Pound will crash like anything if that happens

PS: Edit Pips changed to bps
PaRaM
  • #703,000
  • Nov 3, 2022 1:05am Nov 3, 2022 1:05am
Short GU
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!! Radha Radha !!
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