Expecting Jeremy to give a spike towards 1.16 today 
WARNING: This post warps space and time in its vicinity.
Cable Update (GBPUSD)
- #697,121
- Oct 17, 2022 4:09am Oct 17, 2022 4:09am
- Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Risk -> Coffee -> Profit -> Repeat | 1,380 Posts
- #697,123
- Oct 17, 2022 4:20am Oct 17, 2022 4:20am
- | Joined Dec 2008 | Status: MMA Pro Wrestler | 17,549 Posts
I have another question.....I hope that you don't get sick of my questions! Today, ForexLive reported "Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda says appropriate to continue monetary easing". So doesn't this easing that Kuroda San has been doing for a long time now, make the Yen weaker? Yet he doesn't want a weaker Yen. Why would he continue easing? There must be an obvious answer, but I can't see it.
Japan not easing, just remain lower than USA
The BOJ policy to keep low inflation and let the export market grow, as YEN beoming cheaper.
BOJ continue to support the Japanese economy, hiking interest rates won't help local/people
A lot of large global Japanese corporations are making history record profit due to low JPY. 33% up.
It means the Japanese government are gaining record high corporate taxes from them.
Small to mid import businesses are hurting but from the government perspective their loss is not critically impacting because it’s covered by profits/taxes made by those large players. ( The rich corporation cover the small business)
Raising interest rate to “strengthen JPY” discussion has no point.
What the Japanese government needs to do is to support and redistribute gained taxes to those small mid size businesses impacted by low JPY.
As reminder, in order for a country to be considered to be doing well, it only has to 2 things :
1. Trade Surplus / Positive Balance of Trade
2. Positive Net International Investment Position.
That's WHY Japanese yen is keeping divergence policy.
Intervention :
Interventions like this would have little effect as long as Japan's interest rates remain far lower than those in the US.
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit:
$15,104
- #697,126
- Oct 17, 2022 4:27am Oct 17, 2022 4:27am
- Joined Aug 2022 | Status: Waiting in the long grass | 1,394 Posts
{quote} Your main Q is this...."Why would he continue easing?" Japan not easing, just remain lower than USA The BOJ policy to keep low inflation and let the export market grow, as YEN beoming cheaper. BOJ continue to support the Japanese economy, hiking interest rates won't help local/people A lot of large global Japanese corporations are making history record profit due to low JPY. 33% up. It means the Japanese government are gaining record high corporate taxes from them. Small to mid import businesses are hurting but from the government perspective...
I am neither brave nor stupid...I am just a part time trader
- #697,127
- Oct 17, 2022 4:39am Oct 17, 2022 4:39am
- Joined Aug 2022 | Status: Trader | 4,859 Posts
{quote} Thank you Pat...that makes sense to me. I suppose that USA is one of Japans largest, if the largest, export market. So as you say, they will all be doing very well except the importers who do not have a product to export. If the government can support those importers, then everyone will win, as long as the income can afford to redistribute to the income to the importers. I see, that makes sense, even to me. So was the whole intervention just a PR exercise?
- #697,129
- Oct 17, 2022 4:44am Oct 17, 2022 4:44am
- Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Postmaster | 11,928 Posts
POSTMASTER
- #697,130
- Oct 17, 2022 4:44am Oct 17, 2022 4:44am
- Joined Aug 2022 | Status: Waiting in the long grass | 1,394 Posts
{quote} A PR exercise for the world because Japan doesn't want anybody to copy what they are doing.
So when countries get accused of 'currency manipulation' Japan is never mentioned, but this is exactly what they are doing.
I'm learning a lot here....thank you all
I am neither brave nor stupid...I am just a part time trader
- #697,131
- Oct 17, 2022 4:45am Oct 17, 2022 4:45am
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: Trader | 14,017 Posts
Insane in the Brain..
- #697,133
- Oct 17, 2022 5:06am Oct 17, 2022 5:06am
- Joined Aug 2022 | Status: Waiting in the long grass | 1,394 Posts
I put a Buy Stop in at 1.13164 with a TP at 1.13950. Is just fishing in case something chancellor says makes GBP jump up.
I am neither brave nor stupid...I am just a part time trader
- #697,134
- Oct 17, 2022 5:09am Oct 17, 2022 5:09am
- Joined May 2022 | Status: I'm Done | 2,577 Posts
Scalped for some pips since I noticed price wants to test 1.1299 again in my opinion. Entry was at 1.12707 and TP-ed just now at 1.12788. I don't use green line to indicate entry but this deep blue is when I enter position, so don't think I am fooling you here!
Either bouncing down and we have double top or to 1.1350 and the retrace to this R now which is 1.13 at the moment. Then this R will become S. Don't expect further price movement above 1.135, otherwise 1.15 is close..
What did Hunt say? There were some "rumors" of raising interest rates by 1 full percent.
- #697,135
- Oct 17, 2022 5:14am Oct 17, 2022 5:14am
- Joined Aug 2022 | Status: Trader | 4,859 Posts
Had a scalp in for 10 pips in the last spike and settled for 17
- #697,137
- Oct 17, 2022 5:15am Oct 17, 2022 5:15am
- Joined Aug 2022 | Status: Waiting in the long grass | 1,394 Posts
I am neither brave nor stupid...I am just a part time trader
- #697,140
- Oct 17, 2022 5:18am Oct 17, 2022 5:18am
- Joined Aug 2018 | Status: Research Analyst | 4,290 Posts
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management