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Flying Dutchman

  • #3,841
  • Oct 13, 2022 10:27am Oct 13, 2022 10:27am
Quoting spzd
{quote} Nah .. more like more $$ manipulation off a Red news data release. Had to send price way down so they could take some profit on the climb back.
And that bounced off the ADR Low ( Green line around 0.96300)- like Post 3840 above
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,842
  • Edited 2:07pm Oct 13, 2022 1:16pm | Edited 2:07pm
Quoting venkatredy
Good morning pete, bluesteele , moodybot, dean can u please suggest where i am doing mistake always my position hit my stoploss {image}
Not something I have on my charting package.

Do you have any particular reason to Buy there ?

The top of high formation on the left would be a better place, Resistance turns into support and then Buy only on a reaction to that level
confirmed by a Bounce and minor break of structure to the upside. This will provide a safe small stoploss at the recent low formed and plenty of upside.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: vt.png Size: 13 KB

Edit: Sorry I just realised you have quit trading today.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #3,843
  • Edited 7:07pm Oct 13, 2022 6:52pm | Edited 7:07pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote}
Not something I have on my charting package.
Do you have any particular reason to Buy there ?
The top of high formation on the left would be a better place, Resistance turns into support and then Buy only on a reaction to that level confirmed by a Bounce and minor break of structure to the upside. This will provide a safe small stoploss at the recent low formed and plenty of upside. {image} Edit: Sorry I just realised you have quit trading today.

Hi Shabs,

V said he just took a buy there as it lined up with a George Target to the left. There appeared to my eye no reason or signal for that to be a buy point.

George himself (imho) would never had thought to buy there.

In fact George's main premise about Targets if I remember correctly was that the market would always run to them.
ie that Price would go TO a Target if heading in that direction.
(so I would likely use his Targets for trading to them.)

The main part of George Theory was mostly in the vein that
"The market is highly organised", not random at all.

Then Targets, that are essentially Swing Points on his various Timeframes, are already established (ie known in advance) and were targets the market will take out.
A Target by his definition was NOT a reversal point just because of its existence.


George's reversal points (from his thread) were based on a tma-true indicator, which had multiple bands which indicated to him (with his other filters) that a price expansion had reached a Pressure Area where he started to take notice of PA, he called it 'his playground ' for a possible reversal trade (George only did reversals)

IF that Pressure Area PLUS his filters PLUS tma-true THEN coincided (had a confluence) with a near Target then George was likely to reversal trade then.


The Swing Targets (that V underlined on his chart with Green and then Orange lines) were not reversal Targets from George's posts at all.
They were Targets the market would take out.
(and therefore, I often suggest, why not trade TO THEM).

Dedicated Reversal Points for trading (NOT targets) have been well discussed here recently on Andy's thread for any & all who have been reading the past 4-5 weeks. And some traders we can see have done well observing certain of these setup points.

Target Trading is actually the opposite to reversal trading in my eyes, so V had it back-to-front as I look at it, he hoped to combine them for a reversal trade (risky).


Your chart Shabs, structure trading, has great value imho.
  • #3,844
  • Oct 13, 2022 7:23pm Oct 13, 2022 7:23pm
Quoting whitesta
Two losing trades where i couldn't identify the Lows. Kept at it and nailed the Lows. Three winning trades followed. Still learning. Had stop loss placed so wasn't too bad. Was not a revenge trade as i was 99% sure that the Low was somewhere near the Round Number. As soon as the structure was broken the trades were placed. Last one was at pullback. GBP pairs move well and if the Hs and Ls are identified it pays well. Again the two main ingredients are RN and Time.
All other confluence(s) come second.
Trade well All. {image}

Hi W,

Open & up front, well done.

Confleunces by definition are always secondary, yes, as their purpose is to give a back up to our primary reason for a trade.

All the best
  • #3,845
  • Oct 14, 2022 12:36am Oct 14, 2022 12:36am
Quoting FulMargnAlch
{quote} The intention of the price is the crux of the matter. The open and recalibration give us reference points. I always try to follow the market aggressors.
Indeed. There is always a filter, or a reason to take the trade, or not take the trade. One man's open, is another man's close.
Get the Lag out
  • #3,846
  • Oct 14, 2022 3:26am Oct 14, 2022 3:26am
A loss and a winner today on GBP/JPY. Knew that the price would go down early London Open. Missed the first pullback and was late for entry. Waited for 2nd pull back and that was the winner. I know that Frankfurt open would have been the best for sell but i hardly place trade within the first 30 minutes of Europe/ Frankfurt Open. An ok week for me. All up 6 losses 12 winners. The losses were small and risk to ratio was atleast 3:1. Its Friday and market is going up and down so hard to identify Hs and Ls. Lots to learn still. Still trigger happy at times.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,847
  • Edited 4:26am Oct 14, 2022 3:45am | Edited 4:26am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi Shabs, V said he just took a buy there as it lined up with a George Target to the left. There appeared to my eye no reason or signal for that to be a buy point. imho.
You look for places on the chart where there are traders in pain (Trapped Traders).
Either ones that took the signal in the wrong direction or gone in too early.
Remember there are people out there that average into positions incurring huge drawdowns before getting the direction right.

The professionals are stop hunting to fill their positions. Looking not necessarily at targets to reverse from but, from where a lot of traders would get out
of the short / long position by closing their trade at breakeven when the market comes back to that level.
There must have been a lot of sellers as that was a significant High, easy to spot on the left hand side of the chart.

The price could easily have broke that level and tested it from below, that is why I would wait for confirmation with a minor re-test & break of structure.
Unless you have Balls of Steel and have a pending Buy order waiting there.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TRAPPED BUYERS.png Size: 22 KB
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #3,848
  • Oct 14, 2022 9:19am Oct 14, 2022 9:19am
What ICT has to say about Algo vs Market profile, DOM, Delta, Volume:

Inserted Video
"Exchange of hands"
  • #3,849
  • Edited 5:28pm Oct 14, 2022 11:42am | Edited 5:28pm
Quoting bilal1947
What ICT has to say about Algo vs Market profile, DOM, Delta, Volume: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQvEV2dTTW8&t=2340s
Thanks Bill - very useful video. He has so many that it is confusing to me but this was of practical import - all within one video.
FVG - breakaway - and measuring gap etc will take a little learning for me but surely worth it.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,850
  • Oct 14, 2022 6:15pm Oct 14, 2022 6:15pm
Quoting TimeTells
Where's a good Fundamentalist when you need an idea of what's going on here.
Forget the ECB,
but what is happening with the SNB ?
Swiss Chocolate or Swiss Cheese https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/d...wap-operations Anyway, interesting Asia for the GJ, and now GBP news upcoming. Any more moves afoot.

A new $6bill SNB swap line

Last weeks $3b was the first time this year for the SNB,
A week later and its double the size, and the largest single USD swap transfer in history.
Can our Fundies go through what is happening here please.
Else keep our ears to the ground. This is not normal stuff apparently.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/d...wap-operations
  • #3,851
  • Oct 14, 2022 7:56pm Oct 14, 2022 7:56pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} A new $6bill SNB swap line Last weeks $3b was the first time this year for the SNB, A week later and its double the size, and the largest single USD swap transfer in history. Can our Fundies go through what is happening here please. Else keep our ears to the ground. This is not normal stuff apparently. https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/d...wap-operations
SNB has a bank, likely Credit Swisse, that's been short dollars now for two weeks. The dollars are probably needed to cover short dollar derivative (used to hedge their dollar assets like US Treasuries to the franc) that are under water due to the surging dollar. Credit Swisse would normally liquidate other assets to raise dollars to fill the gap, but is probably unable to find something it can quickly sell. The fact that it's gone from $3 billion to $6 billion in one week should set off alarms.

That is all speculation but is probably close to the truth of the matter.
  • #3,852
  • Oct 14, 2022 8:36pm Oct 14, 2022 8:36pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} A new $6bill SNB swap line Last weeks $3b was the first time this year for the SNB, A week later and its double the size, and the largest single USD swap transfer in history. Can our Fundies go through what is happening here please. Else keep our ears to the ground. This is not normal stuff apparently. https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/d...wap-operations
Not much ...

The FED bailed out Credit Suisse by selling 6.2B in Liquidity Swaps to SNB? – Investment Watch (investmentwatchblog.com)
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #3,853
  • Oct 14, 2022 9:04pm Oct 14, 2022 9:04pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote}
SNB has a bank, likely Credit Swisse, that's been short dollars now for two weeks. The dollars are probably needed to cover short dollar derivative (used to hedge their dollar assets like US Treasuries to the franc) that are under water due to the surging dollar. Credit Swisse would normally liquidate other assets to raise dollars to fill the gap, but is probably unable to find something it can quickly sell.
The fact that it's gone from $3 billion to $6 billion in one week should set off alarms.
That is all speculation but is probably...
Quoting spzd
{quote}
Not much ... The FED bailed out Credit Suisse by selling 6.2B in Liquidity Swaps to SNB? – Investment Watch (investmentwatchblog.com)

Cheers guys,

I also trade one pair and have the BoE all over mine (ends this w/e apparently) and at the same time the BoJ not interested (in intervening) at all.
Deutche
CredSuisse

We live in (very) interesting times

Trade well, trade safe
  • #3,854
  • Oct 14, 2022 10:45pm Oct 14, 2022 10:45pm
If there is anybody in here making money consistently week in and week out, Please message me! Thank's!
  • #3,855
  • Oct 15, 2022 12:41am Oct 15, 2022 12:41am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} You look for places on the chart where there are traders in pain (Trapped Traders). Either ones that took the signal in the wrong direction or gone in too early. Remember there are people out there that average into positions incurring huge drawdowns before getting the direction right. The professionals are stop hunting to fill their positions. Looking not necessarily at targets to reverse from but, from where a lot of traders would get out of the short / long position by closing their trade at breakeven when the market comes back to that...
Hi Shabs,

You are right. it gives decent returns when the trend is identified. Entries are quite good on pullbacks.
  • #3,856
  • Oct 15, 2022 9:05am Oct 15, 2022 9:05am
Quoting vulcann1
If there is anybody in here making money consistently week in and week out, Please message me! Thank's!
i do, but i have been trading a helluva long time and i certainly didnt get there overnight. Why do you want to know who makes money ? just curious. Oh, and i still get a helluva lot of trades wrong
  • #3,857
  • Oct 15, 2022 1:53pm Oct 15, 2022 1:53pm
Quoting T721
{quote} i do, but i have been trading a helluva long time and i certainly didnt get there overnight. Why do you want to know who makes money ? just curious. Oh, and i still get a helluva lot of trades wrong
Do I hear an echo lol... I will add...

Some days I win every single trade other days I don't and will lose most or even all of my trades..and those days are usually when I'm off mentally..and thus not reading the charts signals correctly. And some days I just don't trade...

For me personally it all boils down to my mental game and risk mgmt.. the method is 3rd on the list.

Cheers
Blue
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #3,858
  • Edited 4:28pm Oct 15, 2022 4:02pm | Edited 4:28pm
I found this video a long time ago about currency trading, across the 3 main trading markets of the world.

It was made in 1985 but it is still relevant today as the psychology of trading currencies has not changed,

Maybe a lot of faster & with more technology now, but some key lessons about how banks move prices to make money out of trading money.

Inserted Video
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #3,859
  • Oct 16, 2022 4:18am Oct 16, 2022 4:18am
Look at how fast the price move at demarcation lines areas (you can only experience the speed in real time)

must have real knowledge in real time

The difference is the cycle length, time and magnitude.

in this SPEED of price IN REAL TIME that can not be teach and explain in a book or forum

ofc, George Target still keep in mind

STIIIIL LEARN
  • #3,860
  • Oct 16, 2022 5:55am Oct 16, 2022 5:55am
Quoting Shabs19
I found this video a long time ago about currency trading, across the 3 main trading markets of the world. It was made in 1985 but it is still relevant today as the psychology of trading currencies has not changed,
Discussion on the above video :

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...video-analysis

Banks were trading spread on cable in 1985 was 10 pips !!!!

In todays figures maybe multiply every number by 10 at least, so Richard Hill made £750,000 for his bank in 3 minutes.

Touch-screen screens in Hong Kong but only telephones in the UK & US.

" Game of Electronic Poker" nicely summed up Forex trading.
It never gets easier, you just get better
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