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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #695,201
  • Oct 12, 2022 6:13am Oct 12, 2022 6:13am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} I think it is the other way....
I think we are both on the same ship. If you SHORT the bonds, the bond yield (currenty 5.036%) is going UP. So someone, may be, who is pissed, is attacking the bond yield so it costs more to lend money for BOE. BOE of course want to intervene if that attack happens again at aa certain level. But to SHORT the bond market in UK you need GBP. And I think that was the reason why the GBP (weirdly) strengthened since the morning. And this means someone had no GBP left to short the bond market, so he/she had to exchange more money and get GBP. - So, as I said, the attack comes from outside of UK. Of course one day they have to throw the GBPs on the market again when they close their shorts on the bonds and the bond yield then will go down, too. So it is a bit of a curiosity currently we can see on the market, at least the reason, why the bond yield goes up and the GBP is strengthening.

By the way: The attack stopped now. Spreads are lowering and Bond yield is coming back a bit, so GBP strength should be over currently.
  • #695,202
  • Oct 12, 2022 6:14am Oct 12, 2022 6:14am
bear trap
  • #695,203
  • Oct 12, 2022 6:14am Oct 12, 2022 6:14am
Quoting billytt
{quote} i made not quite 4 pips today. Yes 4 not 400 lol I did say in advance how i would trade the break.
That's excellent! Especially when each pip is worth $1000!
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #695,204
  • Oct 12, 2022 6:18am Oct 12, 2022 6:18am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Perhaps with the changes on the battlefield, intelligence gathering and strategy adjustment are lacking.
Or perhaps simply misinterpreted.
I am neither brave nor stupid...I am just a part time trader
  • #695,205
  • Oct 12, 2022 6:19am Oct 12, 2022 6:19am
Quoting JackintheBox
{quote} I think we are both on the same ship. If you SHORT the bonds, the bond yield (currenty 5.036%) is going UP. So someone, may be, who is pissed, is attacking the bond yield so it costs more to lend money for BOE. BOE of course want to intervene if that attack happens again at aa certain level. But to SHORT the bond market in UK you need GBP. And I think that was the reason why the GBP (weirdly) strengthened since the morning. And this means someone had no GBP left to short the bond market, so he/she had to exchange more money and get GBP....
Why you need GBP to short sell? Just for collateral?
  • #695,206
  • Oct 12, 2022 6:19am Oct 12, 2022 6:19am
Quoting Moty
{image}{image}
Awesome
Live trade ~ GBPUSD only. No chart! Follow at your own risk!
  • #695,207
  • Oct 12, 2022 6:22am Oct 12, 2022 6:22am
Quoting JackintheBox
{quote} I think we are both on the same ship. If you SHORT the bonds, the bond yield (currenty 5.036%) is going UP. So someone, may be, who is pissed, is attacking the bond yield so it costs more to lend money for BOE. BOE of course want to intervene if that attack happens again at aa certain level. But to SHORT the bond market in UK you need GBP. And I think that was the reason why the GBP (weirdly) strengthened since the morning. And this means someone had no GBP left to short the bond market, so he/she had to exchange more money and get GBP....
And I don't think it is an attack. The market just wants compensation for the risk of default (which rose considerably because of mini-budget), thus the price of gilts is lower. I am not even sure there is a lot of actual selling.
  • #695,208
  • Oct 12, 2022 6:22am Oct 12, 2022 6:22am
These candles are mean! Up and down for 200 points! More in some cases! No direction. Talk about take no prisoners.
  • #695,209
  • Oct 12, 2022 6:23am Oct 12, 2022 6:23am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} I think it is the other way.... PM Truss has pissed off the Arabs with her comments over Israel. Has pissed off the Chinese over Taiwan & Russia most of all. So tell me...who in the world is going to buy UK Gilts? The UK will NOT weather this recession/depression. Few Forex reserves, sold off most of their gold. She did it to UK.
The BOE same as the FED and every other 3rd world nation central bank in the world have done and are doing.
  • #695,210
  • Oct 12, 2022 6:26am Oct 12, 2022 6:26am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} That's excellent! Especially when each pip is worth $1000!
lol,, £500 that includes compounding from £100. its enough.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #695,211
  • Oct 12, 2022 6:30am Oct 12, 2022 6:30am
on h4 timeframe gbpusd shows ascending movement. i prefer think gbp'll rise to level of 1.12550. then may be a rollback. but it's unlikely.
  • #695,212
  • Oct 12, 2022 6:30am Oct 12, 2022 6:30am
Quoting Svetul4o
{quote} The BOE same as the FED and every other 3rd world nation central bank in the world have done and are doing.
The ECB has been propping up Italy, Greece and god knows how many other nations in this manner for many years now. I don't follow them closely. This kind of begs the question. If everybody is in the same rotten creaky boat, how do you pick where to put your money?
  • #695,213
  • Oct 12, 2022 6:31am Oct 12, 2022 6:31am
Quoting VM.
{quote} And I don't think it is an attack. The market just wants compensation for the risk of default (which rose considerably because of mini-budget), thus the price of gilts is lower. I am not even sure there is a lot of actual selling.
With new party in command, the big boys already sold their large bond holdings in the last 3 weeks. Now they are watching what the new PM will put forward. Whether it is worthy to trust this govt or not. Many big guys when they sold their bonds, they didn't only sold it and keep their investment in pound sterling, but they also dump the cable for a more stable currency-the dollar. Now i think it is those same money coming back to buy GBP in smaller block and looking forward to re invest in the same bond when they become more confidence
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #695,214
  • Oct 12, 2022 6:43am Oct 12, 2022 6:43am
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} With new party in command, the big boys already sold their large bond holdings in the last 3 weeks. Now they are watching what the new PM will put forward. Whether it is worthy to trust this govt or not. Many big guys when they sold their bonds, they didn't only sold it and keep their investment in pound sterling, but they also dump the cable for a more stable currency-the dollar. Now i think it is those same money coming back to buy GBP in smaller block and looking forward to re invest in the same bond when they become more confidence
I don't know if that's what actually happens, but it makes a lot of sense. And if that's the case, then G/U should stay below 1.12 for the FX part of the trade to be profitable (as 1.12 was the price before mini-budget was announced). In my opinion, bonds are cheap now, 5% return on gilts may not be bad actually, I think many banks will be tempted to lock in the interest income.
  • #695,215
  • Oct 12, 2022 6:45am Oct 12, 2022 6:45am
USDX is floating on top of the 50 sma and 200 ema averages. Not a lot of direction in this!
  • #695,216
  • Oct 12, 2022 6:45am Oct 12, 2022 6:45am
Im placing a LONG at 1.1078
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  • #695,217
  • Oct 12, 2022 6:48am Oct 12, 2022 6:48am
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  • #695,218
  • Oct 12, 2022 6:48am Oct 12, 2022 6:48am
Quoting voeltoez
im out now..100% daily goal..but i think cable will go to 1.12 at fomc..stay safe guys {image}
100%?
  • #695,219
  • Oct 12, 2022 6:48am Oct 12, 2022 6:48am
Quoting bestchao14
Im placing a LONG at 1.1078
You are placing long at a resistance (QML)
Good luck and wishes you green pip
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #695,220
  • Oct 12, 2022 6:48am Oct 12, 2022 6:48am
Quoting vulcann1
{quote} ......will be a challenge at 65 to assimilate to most here that are younger then my children but I welcome it! Thanks again, My real name is Bill

I am right there with ya Bill.... I am 60 years old, but am just a newbie at this.... So I watch carefully and try to learn and glean all I can from these guys and gals... They really are a great bunch of people here. Glad to have you here.
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