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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #693,481
  • Oct 7, 2022 3:57pm Oct 7, 2022 3:57pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} Pat, if the current drop is a 1-5 move, it doesn't look good for the bulls (in the long run). GU touched today the upper zone for the completion of Wave 4, although the W:4 is invalidated below 1.0931. There is always the chance that the market makes some pattern I don't recognize now. {image}
Now you made me pee in my pants....
Let me clean up first, I will reply on my view.
Sorry
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #693,482
  • Edited 4:36pm Oct 7, 2022 3:59pm | Edited 4:36pm
Another great trading week just closed with each day except today-Friday (@ 90%) seeing > 30day adr pip ranges. This metric has more than doubled since this time last year, and as of Friday close stands @ a multi-year hi of 188pips. The week also saw a > 13wk awr range @ 117%, (439pips.) The month so far has seen price travel 58% of the 6mth amr.
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Wkly. The wkly candle closes as a bearish-bodied hammer having seen an early week upside follow-thru on last week’s bullish hammer candle that encountered sbr on this @ the prev sw lo zone (once previously disrespected as sbr) that started @ 1410, and 50% of 2666-0327, on this t/f. The t/f closes the week still in a classic downtrend. It’s oscillators end the week much as last week, showing regular bullish divergence @ that 0327 all-time/current Yrly lo.
Dly. Friday’s dly candle closes bearishly, the 3rd consecutively to do so, (‘3 black crows?’) These came after 6 consecutive bullish-bodied candles on this t/f. The t/f closes the week still in a general downtrend with a new LH @ 1495, the 5th consecutively on the t/f. It’s oscillators show bearish hidden divergence @ that 1495 last LH. A new descending t/line joins 2276 with said 1495 on this t/f.
4Hr. The last candle close on this t/f is a bearish-bodied hammer-esq candle. Perhaps a bullish end to the week re this candle? The t/f ends the week possibly in a new general downtrend. It’s last few fractal prints starting @ the 1495 wkly hi have been a HH, L, LH, LL, HL, LH, and what, when it forms fractally, will be a 2nd LL, @ or below Friday’s wkly lo. It’s oscillators end the week in a non-descript state. Price @ Friday’s wkly lo, (1055,) found support @ the top of the 4hr part of the prev 1hr/4hr sw lo zone that extends down to 1023, and just @/around the Mthly pivot.
------------------------------------------

So, the big technical question for at least the first part of next week (probably beyond,) is whether the upside pullback in the dly/wkly/mthly downtrends is over @ 1495, or is 0327 really the lo for some time to come, with either a period of ranging, or the start of a new uptrend on these longer t/f ‘s? Next week's known fundie event risks may have a say in the answer, the U.s highlights being Cpi, Fed minutes, and Retail Sales.

NB: Chart conditions per 3-candle fractal swing analysis. GMT+3 charting referred to.

Wkly, Dly, 4Hr, and 10/20/50 ema crosses below.
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #693,483
  • Oct 7, 2022 4:00pm Oct 7, 2022 4:00pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} GU Not many want to discuss on how to get out on bad trades. 99% posted in FF is everyone makes profit.... really . I'm the only newbie in the world that loser() money on bad trades. Or most don't want to post bad trade or loser() as to protect one ego. Anyway....here how I get out my bad trades. I use averaging up. There are many ways to get out of bad trades. If we don't know how, the the final deal is Margin Call...... You may have diffrent method on how to handle bad trades or managing it to BE, please with me...
Pat, I use the stop loss.
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Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #693,484
  • Oct 7, 2022 4:02pm Oct 7, 2022 4:02pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Now you made me pee in my pants.... Let me clean up first, I will reply on my view. Sorry
Pat, you got fricken potential 400 pips to the upside...what else do you want the market to offer you?
edit: ok, make it 350 pips.
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #693,485
  • Oct 7, 2022 4:03pm Oct 7, 2022 4:03pm
Quoting Jolita
{quote} GBP not looking good, 107 not far and possibility will get there to complete its mission. But no one knows where the end will be. Wishing you luck. I stayed out of GU over a week now. My view on daily. {image}

Thanks Jolita.........
There goes another one, more bad news for my trade.....

All of you guys here are nice people, sincere and always helpful.
I really am happy to know you Jolita.

Have a great weekends with family and enjoy the party...
Let me figure out this bad trades exit strategy over the weekeneds.

Take Care & Best Wishes
Pat Chiko
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #693,486
  • Oct 7, 2022 4:08pm Oct 7, 2022 4:08pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} GU Not many want to discuss on how to get out on bad trades. 99% posted in FF is everyone makes profit.... really . I'm the only newbie in the world that loser() money on bad trades. Or most don't want to post bad trade or loser() as to protect one ego. Anyway....here how I get out my bad trades. I use averaging up. There are many ways to get out of bad trades. If we don't know how, the the final deal is Margin Call...... You may have diffrent method on how to handle bad trades or managing it to BE, please with me here....
It's looks like Martingale...
Edited: Also looks like your last N3 like ideal, but only if you watch 1Min chart, personally minimum watching only 3 min chart periodically
  • #693,487
  • Oct 7, 2022 4:20pm Oct 7, 2022 4:20pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Thanks Jolita......... There goes another one, more bad news for my trade..... All of you guys here are nice people, sincere and always helpful. I really am happy to know you Jolita. Have a great weekends with family and enjoy the party... Let me figure out this bad trades exit strategy over the weekeneds. Take Care & Best Wishes Pat Chiko
pm you
  • #693,488
  • Oct 7, 2022 4:20pm Oct 7, 2022 4:20pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} Pat, you got fricken potential 400 pips to the upside...what else do you want the market to offer you? edit: ok, make it 350 pips.

CPI numbers are due next week. Current expectations:
Headline +8.20% (prev. +8.3%)
Core +6.6% (prev. +6.3%)

Seems to me narratives are being created for the market to fixate/pivot on & everyone is falling for it, one self-fulfilling prophecy after another. What will happen if FED Pivot ...

Factors that should be of little to no consequence to this market; all landing with nigh on perfect timing.
What I can see now this GU bear market mostly is macro driven, no matter how good someone is with charting can't deny the macro factor.

I'm reading NFP report and some article on micro, seems to me I must be insane to be long GU or SPX now when it’s so clear that massacre is coming,

Many are hoping GU to bounce up, but hope and trading is not good advice
Maybe I do more reseach on the weekends and take time to think about it;.....

The question is, will CPI number will open the flood gate on GU......
Take care Goreg and have a great weeknds.
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #693,489
  • Oct 7, 2022 4:21pm Oct 7, 2022 4:21pm
Looks like a 4hr H&S pattern.
Pound still on struggle street.
Selling rallies continues to be a good option.
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Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #693,490
  • Edited Oct 8, 2022 6:59am Oct 7, 2022 4:23pm | Edited Oct 8, 2022 6:59am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} GU Not many want to discuss on how to get out on bad trades. 99% posted in FF is everyone makes profit.... really . I'm the only newbie in the world that loser() money on bad trades. Or most don't want to post bad trade or loser() as to protect one ego. Anyway....here how I get out my bad trades. I use averaging up. There are many ways to get out of bad trades. If we don't know how, the the final deal is Margin Call...... You may have diffrent method on how to handle bad trades or managing it to BE, please with me here....
Nice exposition Pat, thanks. I am an 'all in all out' type of trader, and because I trade @ potential swing points (ie pre-identified potential supp/res/sbr/rbs factors) and barring the entry candle trigger close as near to a potential top or bottom as it is possible to get, I can keep stops tight, particularly in the lower t/f's that I operate on for entry triggers. My 'disaster' stop' is placed as a % of account when I place the trade, but I am generally out manually before this is hit and just cancel it, if the trade goes against me. I tend not to 'average in,' or indeed 'average out' when it is going in my favour. I do stats for every 20 trading sessions and as long as my average winner is bigger than my average loser, (and a few other stats) at my high win rate - that's ok.

As you intimate in your post, if the trade is just wrong and your stop (s) is/are hit then by averaging in, (ie adding to a losing trade) you lose more. You obviously have this under control overall, but others, particularly newbies, may not if using the technique, so they would be advised to decide beforehand their max risk split between the max number of 'averaging in' trades (plus the initial trade) they are prepared to place, if it goes against them.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #693,491
  • Oct 7, 2022 4:23pm Oct 7, 2022 4:23pm
Quoting T721
{quote} pm you
Lucky you 're around on Friday...
Everyweek, I am waititng for Friday.
Wednesday ids the worse, coz it's stuck in the middle.

Why Friday specail.......... coz.......
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Party time...
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #693,492
  • Oct 7, 2022 4:26pm Oct 7, 2022 4:26pm
Quoting Jolita
{quote} GBP not looking good, 107 not far and possibility will get there to complete its mission. But no one knows where the end will be. Wishing you luck. I stayed out of GU over a week now. My view on daily. {image}

Hi Jolita, it's me again...

On serious note, I still regard the current levels of the pound as unsustainable given the fragility of the bond market and the deterioration of the UK's current account and fiscal position.
If it breaks the 1.07500 level, I expect the GBPUSD at 1.0400 - 1.0200 by the end of the year.

I enjoy using micro for my analysis. Chart (TA) is set up and N3.
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #693,493
  • Oct 7, 2022 4:30pm Oct 7, 2022 4:30pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Lucky you 're around on Friday... Everyweek, I am waititng for Friday. Wednesday ids the worse, coz it's stuck in the middle. Why Friday specail.......... coz.......{image}Party time...
thats why i dont call it fuckem friday for nothing. when your on the right side of fucken friday its always a good day and vice versa
  • #693,494
  • Oct 7, 2022 4:37pm Oct 7, 2022 4:37pm
Quoting DmShka
{quote} It's looks like Martingale... Edited: Also looks like your last N3 like ideal, but only if you watch 1Min chart, personally minimum watching only 3 min chart periodically
Thanks for the shout Bro.

Little bit differ form Martingale coz martingale double the bad on each successive N3.
Mine is more to averaging up, with 20 lot spread over 3 or 4 package ( each package have two or three trades in it)

The added N3 on the successive lot are based on S&R zone confluence with OB.
I only watch Daily/H4 for set up and H1/M30 for N3.

Lower than those time frame, I will get confused ( Newbie in natural form)

Take care and be good father& husband this weeknds. Bring fmily for nice food and outing.

Best Regrds
PAT
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #693,495
  • Oct 7, 2022 5:02pm Oct 7, 2022 5:02pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Friday, what are you doing here ?. I'm still here trying to get some break even money to close this bad trdes..... You already made the money, go and enjoy with your yacht at Manaco Bay. Don't waste time here, coz in here you will only see suffering people to earn.. Take care Bro and enjoy your weekends, send some food ( photos)....
Yes, i am 3 pips up. Market closed 10 minutes after i opened the trade.
No yacht here. The winter is coming and war is killing economy of vast majority of Europe. There will be no yacht soon. I hope i will have a job next month.

No money from forex for me this year, only salary is keeping food on my table.

Stay strong and survive

  • #693,496
  • Oct 7, 2022 5:49pm Oct 7, 2022 5:49pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Hi Jolita, it's me again... On serious note, I still regard the current levels of the pound as unsustainable given the fragility of the bond market and the deterioration of the UK's current account and fiscal position. If it breaks the 1.07500 level, I expect the GBPUSD at 1.0400 - 1.0200 by the end of the year. I enjoy using micro for my analysis. Chart (TA) is set up and N3.

This is unusual for GBP to dip while oil is increasing.
Someone with big pockets adding selling pressure on .
Can BOE handle this continues sell off? Low pound, will lift prices up. Perhaps one other intervention on Sun/Mon.
  • #693,497
  • Oct 7, 2022 6:12pm Oct 7, 2022 6:12pm
Quoting RemyLou
{quote} Sorry i new to this ...What are 2% margin rules
In addition to what Chris already shared, here is some info on risk management advise. It is very hard to follow but if you stick with this, you will succeed. If you brake rules, sadly might not survive in this business for long. Trading is all about mastering skills for the better result. GL
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  • #693,498
  • Oct 7, 2022 8:58pm Oct 7, 2022 8:58pm
Quoting Yngwie
Let see. SELL 1.1314 SL 1.1340 TP 1.1080
After 33 hours finally touchdown 234 pips very last minute before market closed.
Live trade ~ GBPUSD only. No chart! Follow at your own risk!
  • #693,499
  • Oct 7, 2022 9:19pm Oct 7, 2022 9:19pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} GU Underwater 43 pps. Add position {image}
Are you struggling, I may be able to help.
  • #693,500
  • Oct 7, 2022 9:32pm Oct 7, 2022 9:32pm
Quoting Jolita
{quote} This is unusual for GBP to dip while oil is increasing. Someone with big pockets adding selling pressure on . Can BOE handle this continues sell off? Low pound, will lift prices up. Perhaps one other intervention on Sun/Mon.
Wow! Please please please learn price action nothing else matters the information that is put out is there to confuse you! They know where your stops are and will come back and get them, look at your charts closely and you will see what I mean. They teach you to put your stops in swing highs and lows and if you pay attention you will see the makers go right back to those areas!! These are the areas you want to enter after the stops are taken out. Stop being a retail fool!!
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