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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #692,881
  • Oct 6, 2022 2:16pm Oct 6, 2022 2:16pm
As Newbie, I got much to learn from members of this thread.
Come noob question. I'm here to learn.

In fact, can anyone tell/enlighten me why GBP even bounced on this gilt intervention especially after BOE showed their hand on the fragility of their pension system? Something not right here, or somebody making deal to short GBP high up there.

Can someone tell me please, the strength of the pound for all these years?
Kuwaiti dinar I understand.
But why was the pound so strong?

When a government (UK) says “do not short our currency”, that should be the very first thing you do, as it means they have no ability to stop a fall.
Happening in Japan, now UK and China.
Developed East Asia, China, and Europe are screwed.

Comment are welcome... Newbie here to learn.

Thank You
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #692,882
  • Oct 6, 2022 2:19pm Oct 6, 2022 2:19pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
Why GBP/USD rally last night after until Tokyo ? INTERVENTION This is in coming with UK now. The gilt saga continues........ The Bank of England managed to push 30-year yields back below 4% via its intervention. But now yields are rising quickly again (4.32% today) and dragging the GBP with it (weaker) Intervention is not so simple.
That is an unusual time for the Bank of England to intervene, isn't it?
  • #692,883
  • Oct 6, 2022 2:20pm Oct 6, 2022 2:20pm
Just look at DXY
Now the $DXY back at Friday close.
Everything going back to where it belongs.
GBP dumping hard, and there are rumors pension plans are dumping assets before the BOE stops buying bonds.

Some body know something and let retail trade in wrong direction....
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #692,884
  • Oct 6, 2022 2:22pm Oct 6, 2022 2:22pm
Quoting tonyb123
{quote} Try just trading? Maybe? Post your charts, I would like to see your prognosis and predictions.
Don't use charts, flip a coin and never predict...
  • #692,885
  • Oct 6, 2022 2:27pm Oct 6, 2022 2:27pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
Just look at DXY Now the $DXY back at Friday close. Everything going back to where it belongs. GBP dumping hard, and there are rumors pension plans are dumping assets before the BOE stops buying bonds. Some body know something and let retail trade in wrong direction....
Retail always trades in the wrong direction, that is how the big boys make money! Look at the Goldman Sachs accounts on wall street and the Dark Pools! They manipulate the markets so that they can make money, essentially stealing it from the public! The exact same way that whales in Forex get access to bid and ask data to troll for stop losses!
  • #692,886
  • Oct 6, 2022 2:30pm Oct 6, 2022 2:30pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
GU Scalp Short{image}
GU

This is my revenge trade against The Wolf...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Is it Friday yet ?.
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #692,887
  • Oct 6, 2022 2:31pm Oct 6, 2022 2:31pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} I'm just trying everything to get him off my back, if anybody else has a better suggestion I'm all ears...
Sometimes the pitbull has to be shot, and even then, his jaws have to be pried open to release the victim.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #692,888
  • Oct 6, 2022 2:31pm Oct 6, 2022 2:31pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Don't use charts, flip a coin and never predict...
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #692,889
  • Oct 6, 2022 2:33pm Oct 6, 2022 2:33pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
As Newbie, I got much to learn from members of this thread. Come noob question. I'm here to learn. In fact, can anyone tell/enlighten me why GBP even bounced on this gilt intervention especially after BOE showed their hand on the fragility of their pension system? Something not right here, or somebody making deal to short GBP high up there. Can someone tell me please, the strength of the pound for all these years? Kuwaiti dinar I understand. But why was the pound so strong? When a government (UK) says “do not short our currency”, that should be...
Are any of those "whys" and " hows" actually of value in your trading??
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #692,890
  • Oct 6, 2022 2:34pm Oct 6, 2022 2:34pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} GOLD Stopped out an re enter H4OB{image} GU Stopped out. No more entry for today.{image} I trade with Stop Loss. It's just Good practice to use stop loss. It's individual choice to justify using it or not. We will get a trade that does NOT come back and we will have to close with Major losses OR have to wait weeks or months for it to return. ALL that time waiting could have been spent making more money trading. Using the available leverage entering the trades.
GOLD

I hope to reach target by NFP on Friday.
Need a lot of luck here.
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #692,891
  • Oct 6, 2022 2:37pm Oct 6, 2022 2:37pm
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Retail always trades in the wrong direction, that is how the big boys make money! Look at the Goldman Sachs accounts on wall street and the Dark Pools! They manipulate the markets so that they can make money, essentially stealing it from the public! The exact same way that whales in Forex get access to bid and ask data to troll for stop losses!
So what you saying trade opposite to retail traders
  • #692,892
  • Oct 6, 2022 2:38pm Oct 6, 2022 2:38pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
As Newbie, I got much to learn from members of this thread. Come noob question. I'm here to learn. In fact, can anyone tell/enlighten me why GBP even bounced on this gilt intervention especially after BOE showed their hand on the fragility of their pension system? Something not right here, or somebody making deal to short GBP high up there. Can someone tell me please, the strength of the pound for all these years? Kuwaiti dinar I understand. But why was the pound so strong? When a government (UK) says “do not short our currency”, that should be...
Simply put, there is generally an inverse relationship but as chaos reigned that Monday morning Asian session re the 500pip Gbpusd crash after the big Friday fall the week before - the Boe recognized that some parts of the Uk financial system were at risk, they intervened to create liquidity in the gilt market, thereby bring down yields, and hence the £ stabilized as a potential systemic risk to the British economy was averted, for then at least.

The £ has historically been strong because of the historic reach of the British economy/empire, and we have lived in that shadow and afterglow since the 'sun started going down on it' post WWII - ie starting really in the late 1940's/1950's. The post-war Bretton Woods agreement fixed £ far too high really, and when it floated post-Bretton Woods, really 1974 onwards when Nixon effectively took U.s off the gold standard, it has been a general downward trajectory ever since, with some bumps and swings in the road each way.

Correct, when a govt issues a give-away line like 'don't short our currency' it is intended to deter shorters at the implicit risk of they, thru their central bank, as a 'big-beast,' intervening to prop the currency up, but actually it has the opposite effect generally. It acts as a siren call to shorters who know, as your previous post intimated, that 'the ' market, ' if that's is it's will - generally cannot be deterred or beaten by a single state entity.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #692,893
  • Oct 6, 2022 2:40pm Oct 6, 2022 2:40pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
As Newbie, Comment are welcome... Newbie here to learn. Thank You

MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #692,894
  • Oct 6, 2022 2:41pm Oct 6, 2022 2:41pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
As Newbie, I got much to learn from members of this thread. Come noob question. I'm here to learn. In fact, can anyone tell/enlighten me why GBP even bounced on this gilt intervention especially after BOE showed their hand on the fragility of their pension system? Something not right here, or somebody making deal to short GBP high up there. Can someone tell me please, the strength of the pound for all these years? Kuwaiti dinar I understand. But why was the pound so strong? When a government (UK) says “do not short our currency”, that should be...
It is simply not the dirtiest shirt in the closet. Yes, things in the UK are not great (I live in the UK), but in the rest of the world things are a lot worse. Everyone crying about the stupid mini budget. With that mini budget they may have averted mass social unrest, which is either already present in other countries or on the way.
  • #692,895
  • Oct 6, 2022 2:43pm Oct 6, 2022 2:43pm
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Retail always trades in the wrong direction, that is how the big boys make money! Look at the Goldman Sachs accounts on wall street and the Dark Pools! They manipulate the markets so that they can make money, essentially stealing it from the public! The exact same way that whales in Forex get access to bid and ask data to troll for stop losses!

There is a lot of shit/conspiracy talked about re the relationship between institutional players and retail and I can assure you, having been there, that retail doesn't figure for institutional, they don't give it a 2nd thought, retail collectively, are just way too small. They certainly don't make their money from taking it off retail.

This Gbpusd is approx 11% of total FX volumes in a $6.6tr a day market (more recently) that is $660bn per day, and retail is circa 2%.

It's a myth put around by losing retail traders looking for someone to blame.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #692,896
  • Oct 6, 2022 2:45pm Oct 6, 2022 2:45pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Just got to keep watching this as it develop. When I see GBP rising ( by BOE Intervention), I wonder how they going to handle Gilt yield ?. Intervention is indeed not so simple. The BOE did not buy any bonds Tues or Wed. And I note that the mkt no longer thinks a 150 bp hike at the next MPC meeting next month is the most likely scenario. It seems to be 100-125 bp now.
I don't think BOE is manipulating the G/U, they just don't have enough currency reserves. Even BOJ finds it difficult to fight yen depreciation, and BOJ has way more reserves.
G/U (and E/U) rise since last week did not make sense fundamentally, but should be attributed to big banks that wanted to squeeze the shorts. Also, now that the medium-term direction for G/U is clear (down to 1.05 at least, maybe to parity or even below), they wanted to sell from high.
  • #692,897
  • Oct 6, 2022 2:46pm Oct 6, 2022 2:46pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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yes yes yes
  • #692,898
  • Oct 6, 2022 2:51pm Oct 6, 2022 2:51pm
Quoting Headland
{quote} Simply put, there is generally an inverse relationship but as chaos reigned that Monday morning Asian session re the 500pip Gbpusd crash after the big Friday fall the week before - the Boe recognized that some parts of the Uk financial system were at risk, they intervened to create liquidity in the gilt market, thereby bring down yields, and hence the £ stabilized as a potential systemic risk to the British economy was averted, for then at least. The £ has historically been strong because of the historic reach of the British economy/empire,...
Excellent Post Headland,
Much info and understanding of the market.
You really understand how finance /Govt/Market works. Clearly explained.
I learn a lot for your post.

Best Regards
Pat Chiko
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #692,899
  • Oct 6, 2022 2:57pm Oct 6, 2022 2:57pm
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Lol Pat or should I say paddyboy, You are his pet project. Waveski does not post one live trade and he is calling for live trades. It is a farce and a joke, You are being used for his hedging strategy.
...ps everyone if you are interested in my live trades read my posts from end of July to mid September you may find 1 or 2....thanks
  • #692,900
  • Oct 6, 2022 2:58pm Oct 6, 2022 2:58pm
Quoting Headland
{quote} There is a lot of shit/conspiracy talked about re the relationship between institutional players and retail and I can assure you, having been there, that retail doesn't figure for institutional, they don't give it a 2nd thought, retail collectively, are just way too small. They certainly don't make their money from taking it off retail. This Gbpusd is approx 11% of total FX volumes in a $6.6tr a day market (more recently) that is $660bn per day, and retail is circa 2%. It's a myth put around by losing retail traders looking for someone to...
Adding to that point, the global economic and monetary system is centered and leveraged around the US and the USD.
This is why in a deleveraging episode other currencies struggle and foreign Central Banks might have second thoughts about tightening.
The Fed doesn’t.
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
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