Cable Update (GBPUSD)

until 1999 that is

Rigging is so evident that it hurts looking at it. Well, i´ll give you guy a break.

Ohhhh.. now I get what you are talking about. I know who this clown is yeah.. I know what is going on at the moment, I know covid was bs, vaccines were bs, moon landing was bs, 9/11 was inner job bs (just so happens Bush was at the school with kids when that happened, that must have been the first and last time he was at school LoL, so people think he's amazing and innocent), this censorship is bs, WEF is bunch of clowns gathered around; the lowest form of humans in one place; sewage on Earth. Honestly I don't care anymore about this stuff. I'll let the One with power to deal with this. I could be wrong about some of the things I mentioned but these are just my beliefs and what I believe in isn't important at all for anybody, as everyone has their own opinion/belief. It's only important to me. Also, controlling documents and whatever isn't important at all. If they can control the way you think, only then you're fuc*ed. I've been in this rabbit hole for quite some time now and know what you on about. This isn't bad. As said: Question everything, learn something and believe nothing until proven so with your very own eyes!

Don't worry though! You know Nature always finds a way to dispose of shit to a proper place for it and eliminate anomalies like WEF and such..

Back to trading!

Money management and emotional stability are two sides of the same coin. Your first job is to control and limit risk.

“Listen, business is easy. If you’ve got a low downside and a big upside, you go do it. If you’ve got a big downside and a small upside, you run away. The only time you have any work to do is when you have a big downside and a big upside.” —SAM ZELL, NEW YORKER, 2007

General guidelines to limit risk:
1. Always follow the trend (never predict tops or bottoms on any timeframe unless trading a range)
2. Calculate Odds - the amount of money you stand to win relative to the amount of money at risk, expressed as a ratio.
3. Assess whether the trade has a chance of succeeding equal to or greater than these odds. Let’s say 1 in 5 S&R levels hold, there is a 20% chance of winning so a trade must have a minimum risk to reward ratio of 5:1 to be viable.
4. Play tight. The more you risk relative to the size of the reward the worse the odds, so only pull the trigger when you believe the trade has a reasonable chance of success AND gives you good odds on winning.
5. Determine the relative strength the trade you are framing so that you do not over or under play it.
6. Play for value. If you think there is a 20% chance of winning and the RR is 5:1 then take the trade. But also be patient and look for setups with the best value possible. At least 10:1+ (and allow trades to play out whenever possible.)
7. Bet on price momentum rather than trade management. Always follow the trend! Trend continuation trades have the best chance of success.

Odds
Calculating Odds means to calculate the amount of money you stand to win relative to the amount of money at risk, usually expressed as a ratio

i.e, 3 to 1
£150 to £50

A trade with odds of 3 to 1 means that you have to win this trade once for every 3 times you lose just to break even. 3 losses and 1 win creates 4 outcomes so you would need to win 25% of the time to break even. This means that if there is a 25% or greater chance of winning then it is correct to make the trade, and if there is a less than 25% chance of winning then the trade must be passed over.

If the ratio is 5 to 1 you have to win once for every 5 losses to BE
£250/50

If the ratio is 10 to 1 you have to win once for every 10 losses to BE etc.
£500/50

Chance of improving
In the 3:1 example above, let’s say this is a bullish trend continuation setup from a pullback into support targeting the recent high - there is a fair chance that if the trade succeeds it could also exceed the profit target and target a new level which would improve the odds from 3:1 to say 5:1 or even 20:1 if the trend is strong . Setups with a chance of improving are clearly preferable and generally occur when trading with the direction of the trend - never against the dominant trend. A lot of people were caught flat footed recently trying to predict a bottom when GU broke below 1.14 (myself included) but there were no technical or fundamental reasons to go long. Why bother? It is so much easier and safer to hitch a ride with an established trend.

Position Size relative to risk
The more you risk relative to the size of the reward the worse the odds. I have given examples of 3:1 and 5:1 above, in reality I don’t consider anything less than 10:1 although it is not something I actually calculate explicitly. See the Sam Zell quote.

Trade Management changes odds
Changes after the initial setup affect the odds, the practice of moving the Stop Loss to BE shortly after the trade is in profit, a so-called ‘free trade’ really means that instead of risking £25 to make £100 you risked £25 to make £1! If you take profit at 50% of the intended target you are risking £25 to make £50 - there may be a good reason for this based on subsequent price action or it may be to ‘lock-in’ some profit, but what has to be considered is the effect of these actions over a large set of trades as they reduce your overall expectancy. A trader who frequently risks £25 to make £1 is clearly not going to make it very far and in the second scenario the trader needs a very high win rate to make good money as their break even percentage is measly, you would have to win once for every 2 losses just to break even - or 33.3% of the time. So if taking profit too soon becomes a habit then over time it will significantly reduce the trader's edge. A trader who takes profit at 1xR every time must have an extremely good win rate, which is very difficult. It is always best to take a long term view of these decisions, don’t act like each trade is a one time decision but something you will do a hundred times, or more. Allow trades to play out whenever possible, so long as the reasoning behind the trade is sound then why not set and forget? This also has the advantage of spending less time sitting down and staring at a screen!

Timeframe
Trading requires good timing on all timeframes however short timeframes are less forgiving and therefore riskier.

Funds
Play tight - bet infrequently on only the strongest setups which offer the best value, however if you are reluctant to make a trade when there is no obvious reason why you shouldn’t take it then it could be a sign that your position size is too big relative to your funds or the opportunity at hand.

Never risk more than 1% on one idea

This is good stuff you said yeah! Actually, I'm starting a journal now so all of this is going to be covered there. Although ratio 3/1 etc, I use ATR instead for this. And by covered, what I mean is live trades, not covering what some word means or whatever. Pure trading, money management. Free-trade concept is awesome and is something that is also going to be included to the way I'll trade soon. Many of the stuff you wrote is great and I was going to start a new journal anyway, so perhaps we will be able to learn from my mistakes or good decisions very soon. 1% per trade is of course as good as 2%, this is the question of personal taste. Good post!

Thank you Rick , you didnt waste my time, in fact i am thankful to you that you take time out and respond to my query, i always listen to and try to learn something from everyone here, ict is also about aggression which creates a gap to enter along with them, as far as liquidity is concern it is only an anticipation for a reversal without knowing how far it can keep going until it finally reverse.

I will revisit futures data on a 5Min EU chart against this chart side by side just to analyze further.

best regards
bilal

This is ultimate blindness anyway thanks for the chart but it wasn't in discussion.

enjoy the weekend.
regards
bilal

lol, much to my own chagrin , gonna add to or keep pace and help on that 133 pages of forum posts per week in the old gbp thread lol, guess I dont follow the rigging , but there is something a bit obvious , just monitor bottom support may make one ?think: differently, middle of chores but it was coffee time lol
what the hell I like shekels , they do something or they dont , dont much care
that little line down yonder would be drawn in on any time frame visable on the quickie M10 to be the same but this is where it came from , start of a new quarter , boys may diddle dally a bit , they may not , as said dont much care , bit of pocket money if they do anything lol ,

7 hours till market opens, a big drop down on opening would be ideal! Clueless Liz , on tv this morning threw Kwazi under the bus

Nothing better to do on a sunday mate?

Blue dot will not be traspassed by no entity

target above 20200

Which is your target big head?

lol how ever far they make it if anywhere wont be paying no swap so out one way or another before eod ,and color blind , a blue dot , where ?

Are you doing some overtime this weekend my corporative freind? Not interested waisting time with you cheers

Join Wavy, patty(same guys by the way) and others

well then , there ya go , I guess we will make it mutual , best to ya

So far so good

This is so inspiring and lovely. it's what i want to read not fellow traders competing with themselves
about who go gives better analysis and quarrelling all over the entire place.

Hi RH,
never would buy BTC, target between 12 and 13 000. Only my view!
Best for you next week!