USD CHF Forex Analysis - Baxia Markets | Forex Factory

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USD CHF Forex Analysis - Baxia Markets

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 8, 2022 4:02pm Sep 8, 2022 4:02pm
USDCHF - 0.56%

The US Dollar lost 1.29% to the Swiss Franc in the last two trading sessions. The USD rally is reversing after Switzerland released Unemployment Rate for August; the result met the expert consensus at 2%, a very healthy figure for the Swiss economy, which puts an end to the 4.69% rally the USD built over the previous 18 sessions.

The US also released high-impact economic indicators earlier in the session; Jobless claims for the week came out at 222K out of the 240K analyst's prediction; this figure shows that the labor market in the US continues to be strong despite the Fed's effort to slow down economic activity to reach a comfortable inflation rate.

Next week the US will announce Inflation rate, which is expected to drop from 8.5% to 8.1%; this will give the market participants a clear picture of where the Fed stands for the next interest rate decision at the end of September, where a 75 basis points hike is expected.

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  • #2
  • Sep 22, 2022 4:00pm Sep 22, 2022 4:00pm
USDCHF +1.14%

The US dollar continues strengthening against the Swiss Franc and is up 2.76% in the last eight trading sessions. The Switzerland National Bank released an Interest Rate Decision earlier in the session, which significantly impacted the exchange rate of USDCHF. The SNB hiked the Interest rate by 75 basis points to reach 0.5%. The previous interest rate was at -0.25%.

The US released high-impact economic indicators on the labor market earlier in the session, which continue to show that the US economy is resilient and that economic activity is not slowing down at the rate the Federal Reserve anticipated; indicating that they will be taking more aggressive measures to get control over inflationary pressures.

The Initial Jobless claims came out better than expected at 213K; expert consensus indicated that the number would come out at 218K; we are seeing an increase from the previous week's figure, which suggest that the economy might be taking a step back; however, as long as the actual number is better than the consensus the market will see the result as positive for the USD.

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  • #3
  • Last Post: Sep 28, 2022 4:10pm Sep 28, 2022 4:10pm
USDCHF -1.61%

The Swiss franc is gaining ground over the US dollar, but we could see the Swiss Franc lose ground after the fundamental news release from the US. They are releasing Initial Jobless claims in tomorrow's trading session; the previous week's figure reached 213K, and analysts expect this week's number to increase to 215K. The US has a very solid labor market that has remained unaffected by the Fed's efforts to slow down economic growth; we have been surprised by the US labor market's numbers in recent months.

Switzerland will release high-impact economic indicators on Friday; they will announce Retail Sales MoM, which is expected to increase from -0.5% to 0.6%, while analysts anticipate Retail Sales YoY to decline slightly from a previous figure of 2.6% to 2% in August, this economic indicator is an excellent way to gauge the economic activity in the country.

Later in the day, Switzerland will also release the KOF Leading Indicators, where the KOF Swiss Economic Insitute gauges business leaders' optimism about the economy's performance and their organization's prospects. This indicator is expected to drop from the previous figure of 86.5; expert consensus is at 84.5.

The US will release indicators on Personal Spending MoM, Personal Income MoM, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday's trading session. These economic indicators will cause turbulence in the markets as they gauge how much people spend on goods and services, how much they make, and how they perceive the future for their financial situation.

Experts anticipate Personal Spending MoM to increase from 0.1% to 0.2%. Personal Income is expected to grow from 0.2% to 0.3%, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment is also expected to increase from 58.2 to 59.5. This is not very good news for the Federal reserve as they continue intensifying the efforts to restore price stability by hiking rates, which is meant to slow down economic activity.

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