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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #688,001
  • Sep 26, 2022 4:34am Sep 26, 2022 4:34am
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} 1.056 is where I see some support on the daily chart for next week selling from the 1.10 area could be safe {image}
i put in another sell limit order at 1.10 if there is any spike higher today

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...nomy-ftse-100/

Bank of England preparing to intervene after pound slumps to all-time low
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #688,002
  • Edited 4:59am Sep 26, 2022 4:37am | Edited 4:59am
The daily looks bullish, maybe on the rumour of the Bank Of England emergency action.
We do have the opportunity to see the BOE does not need to act at all for the interest rates we pay to go up.
Unfunded spending leaves only two options to borrow or print. Both are brand new money creations.
How they stop cable falling is to close the delta between the US and UK REAL interest rates. Maybe.
It did just hit the all-time low.

'Market experts said the Bank may need to increase rates by as much as one percentage point – to 3.25% –
to steady the plunging pound as it hurtles towards parity with the US dollar following the Chancellor’s mini-budget tax cut announcements.'
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #688,003
  • Sep 26, 2022 4:39am Sep 26, 2022 4:39am
Quoting JackintheBox
Hmmm, I read your stories here...I had an advantage I think because I trade lots of GBP so more focus here. What I have seen was massive buy orders all over the place AGAINST the GBP since start of last week. So I added almost 100% to my old, already profitable position on wednesday (shorting GBP) - although that is against everything I do in general but have never seen such an imbalance in buying orders against selling orders on a currency. The buying pressure against the GBP was so huge that it only could down (theoretically)- even when it was...As I talk here they recover their open positions...
Hope someone else could use it to make money. Still pressure on it. It's insane how much was shorted this morning. good trades to all
  • #688,004
  • Sep 26, 2022 4:40am Sep 26, 2022 4:40am
Quoting Theoak
The government gives the BOE targets to achieve one is inflation. The many weapon is interest rates, but increasing the rate slows growth. It is counter intrusive...
Not sure what you're trying to say, but facing 9% inflation, not doing nothing would be worst, and worst for the ones that have less let's be clear.
There was a problem in the past politics, printing too much money for to long, but now increasing interest rates is not the cause of any of the problems, it's the solution. Not a perfect solution but it has to be done, no matter what else you do to solve it.
  • #688,005
  • Sep 26, 2022 4:40am Sep 26, 2022 4:40am
Quoting Indiara
{quote} Anything that we can catch is good I wonder how much BOJ spent on the intervention. It did not change the market trend, and I didn't think that it would, or could. Market will decide it's own level.
~$25bn well spent. They borrowed $75bn from IMF i think.
But intervention is not what is needed to support the YEN, Its rising its interest rate
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #688,006
  • Sep 26, 2022 4:45am Sep 26, 2022 4:45am
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} ~$25bn well spent. They borrowed $75bn from IMF i think. But intervention is not what is needed to support the YEN, Its rising its interest rate
japan has a different problem, their inflation is very low compared to the rest of the world, 3%, for most countries it would be fine and no one would suggest messing with interest rates. Sure they will increase interest rates, but they can never compete with the US increases or they will create a problem in trying to solve another one. Not being able to match the US interest rates, the problem will never go away.

The US pretty much f*** everyone else that for different reasons can't match those interest rates
  • #688,007
  • Sep 26, 2022 4:47am Sep 26, 2022 4:47am
Which one first NFL in UK or GU parity?
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More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #688,008
  • Sep 26, 2022 4:48am Sep 26, 2022 4:48am
Quoting Theoak
{quote} We don't make nothing to export... I'm more worried about the imports... What is inflation at now. I can see the BOE raising the interest rates soon!

Bank of England expected to make a statement today- Sky News | Forex Factory
Don't trade what you think. Just what you see!!!
  • #688,009
  • Sep 26, 2022 4:51am Sep 26, 2022 4:51am
Quoting Polimini
{quote} japan has a different problem, their interest rate is very low compared to the rest of the world, 3%, for most countries it would be fine and no one would suggest messing with interest rates. Sure they will increase interest rates, but they can never compete with the US increases or they will create a problem in trying to solve another one. Not being able to match the US interest rates, the problem will never go away. The US pretty much f*** everyone else that for different reasons can't match those interest rates
The FED was already 2-3 meetings ahead when it first start to increase rate.
ECB was dealing with anti fragmentation sh*ts
BOE was acting as a sucka. Afraid for a recession. Now the recession becomes inevitable.
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More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #688,010
  • Sep 26, 2022 4:53am Sep 26, 2022 4:53am
It's the 1 Hour reversal, and It's going down
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  • #688,011
  • Sep 26, 2022 4:53am Sep 26, 2022 4:53am
Scalping on fire
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  • #688,012
  • Sep 26, 2022 4:53am Sep 26, 2022 4:53am
Quoting Theoak
{quote} Bank of England expected to make a statement today- Sky News | Forex Factory
let's hope they can then make no one in the government say or do something stupid immediately after
  • #688,013
  • Sep 26, 2022 4:54am Sep 26, 2022 4:54am
Hourly
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  • #688,014
  • Sep 26, 2022 4:55am Sep 26, 2022 4:55am
Quoting Theoak
{quote} Bank of England expected to make a statement today- Sky News | Forex Factory
you terrified pound
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  • #688,015
  • Sep 26, 2022 4:56am Sep 26, 2022 4:56am
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} The FED was already 2-3 meetings ahead when it first start to increase rate. ECB was dealing with anti fragmentation sh*ts BOE was acting as a sucka. Afraid for a recession. Now the recession becomes inevitable. {image}
energy crisis in Europe makes the contexts different i think, apart from other specific problems like the Brexit and a crazy government in the UK and the EU has the "lets no bankrupt a couple of countries" problem.
  • #688,016
  • Sep 26, 2022 4:57am Sep 26, 2022 4:57am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Just a speculation BoE might raise interest rates as much as 200bp or 2% via an emergency meeting. Problem is in doing so they will further impact an economy which depends on endless cheap credit to survive and risk imploding financial system via derivatives markets in the process. Do BoE and Treasury have enough FX pool to execute it ?
Well according to their statement from august 2022 they have 21.509 million $ it decreased notable this year. i think it was way above >30.000 million $ at one point (at least in march 30.964). i can not say with confident if this is a lot or not, but if you compare it with japans foreign exchange reserves which is 1.292.072 million $ (not sure if only boj or whole japan) it seems not a lot at all. but than again in my humble opinion it seems enough to maybe cool down the market a bit which could result in some long pips after all.

edit: in addition to your suggestion of a 200bp rise i find this hard to imagine. i would not rule it out 100% that's for sure but it would really surprise me a lot.

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  • #688,017
  • Sep 26, 2022 5:01am Sep 26, 2022 5:01am
Quoting Theoak
{quote} Bank of England expected to make a statement today- Sky News | Forex Factory
at what time??
  • #688,018
  • Sep 26, 2022 5:03am Sep 26, 2022 5:03am
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  • #688,019
  • Sep 26, 2022 5:06am Sep 26, 2022 5:06am
Quoting shivohum2015
{quote} at what time??
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-63031372
Don't trade what you think. Just what you see!!!
  • #688,020
  • Sep 26, 2022 5:06am Sep 26, 2022 5:06am
Quoting Yngwie
{quote} Hopefully price reach or nearby 1.0840 or else Long at or nearby 1.0585
Demm miss my sell order
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