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Flying Dutchman

  • #3,221
  • Edited 6:19am Sep 9, 2022 6:01am | Edited 6:19am
Quoting FocusWinReal
{quote} Open is fine. 1:1501 Do you mean the blue vertical line?
Blue verticals are the London Open for Forex in UK time ( 7am then 8am UK Equity market Open and 10am UK time ) These are the "Killzone" ? for Stacey Burke type trading method - I hope.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,222
  • Sep 9, 2022 6:12am Sep 9, 2022 6:12am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Blue verticals are the London Open for Forex in YK time ( 7am then 8am UK Equity market Open and 10am UK time ) These are the "Killzone" ? for Stacey Burke type trading method - I hope.
He makes his 12 candle box zone (killzone) quite clear in his vids. NY time. Just convert to your time then convert to your broker time.
  • #3,223
  • Sep 9, 2022 6:14am Sep 9, 2022 6:14am
Quoting turnip15
The 15 minute. Edit: The grey horizontal line at the top is a 4 hour support line back in August from the 22nd to the 31st August when it was broken to the downside. It has now come back but this is hindsight analysis. I don't think Stacey Burke has so many levels from different time frames. I imagine 4 hour puts you in the ball park then hourly and fifteen minute lay the areas for watching price action on the 5 minute ( my execution time frame) ? Constructive comment most welcome please {image} {image}
Zooming out certainly puts the 5 minute into focus !
What say you ?
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,224
  • Sep 9, 2022 6:18am Sep 9, 2022 6:18am
The weekend is here -enjoy it everybody
Thank-you for your constructive comments relating to my pleas for help in progressing my trading. I have a growing folder of charts and comments from some persons on this thread which I shall peruse over the coming days
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,225
  • Sep 9, 2022 7:49am Sep 9, 2022 7:49am
It's a difficult day of trading for me. I had to trade E$ at major level and on the backdrop of possible intervention, so extra caution booking profit, not sure what might happen next. I'm done for the day and week. Cheers
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Know what you trade
  • #3,226
  • Sep 9, 2022 8:12am Sep 9, 2022 8:12am
Plain and Simple explanation ?
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  • #3,227
  • Sep 9, 2022 8:13am Sep 9, 2022 8:13am
I have been waiting for that strike at MOL.
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The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #3,228
  • Sep 9, 2022 8:20am Sep 9, 2022 8:20am
Quoting FulMargnAlch
I have been waiting for that strike at MOL.{image}
TP awhile ago, the value at NY open seems unclear.
The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #3,229
  • Sep 9, 2022 5:31pm Sep 9, 2022 5:31pm
Quoting FulMargnAlch
Looks like there is a failure here and the range exhausted around 60%. But we are near London so it has still the capacity to hit previous low. I'll set BE incase.{image}
Hi FMA, failure simple layman word is the key vocabulary.

Quoting FulMargnAlch
Already TP, second win for today. Trading looks nice.{image}
You're getting it.

Quoting FulMargnAlch
Damn. It did hit dol. Perhaps the next question is, will it closed above dol? {image}
How much did market pay you if you knew the answer?

Quoting FulMargnAlch
The target seems to have already been reached and now a deciding point. {image}
Since you knew target reached and it's all about deciding point from here, what tools do you have to answer this trade entry question?

Look back my previous post, I mentioned learn scalping skills.

Quoting FulMargnAlch
I have been waiting for that strike at MOL.{image}
Correct. You begin to get the idea how professional traders move value.

Quoting FulMargnAlch
TP awhile ago, the value at NY open seems unclear.
Imagine if you hit 50pips every trading day. Risk 0.5% a trade, how much your gain in the long run assuming a 50% hitrate?

Don't be greedy with profit target. Don't expect the impossible to happen.
Know what you trade
  • #3,230
  • Edited 9:18pm Sep 9, 2022 5:51pm | Edited 9:18pm
Quoting FulMargnAlch
Thanks BW, still practicing.{image}
Lots of practise allow you to learn the detail nuances of the market. Key word - detail. You learn how to define the market according to the market as it is, don't make the common mistake to impose assumptions which has no basis.

Watch the clock always. Taken note of sessions open times, futures market open times, and stock market open times.

These are real market variables.

One of the most common reason for assumption is statistical observation. My advice is don't turn trading into a statistical speculation if you're trading value - stick with cause and effect logical reasoning, stay away from statistical mindset. You can't have both.

I'm sure you've learnt a bit this week. Keep practising. Remember, the best strategy is the one that directly address blindness in real time market.

The biggest mistake in trading is assuming you know the future market in real time by imposing assumptions with no basis and with no clear and complete definition.

Like everyone else, I'm constantly learning all the same.

Enjoy the weekend. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #3,231
  • Sep 9, 2022 6:39pm Sep 9, 2022 6:39pm
Now, it's time to address this algo thing again.

Why algo?
How is it possible that a market with so many participants under CBs supervision trade like an algo?

The answer is it's not the almighty Algo entity.

The commonality that link all stakeholders is the value of the asset. This common ground make the market look like a single algo entity on our chart. Cheers.
Know what you trade
  • #3,232
  • Sep 9, 2022 6:51pm Sep 9, 2022 6:51pm
Quoting BWilliam
Now, it's time to address this algo thing again. Why algo? How is it possible that a market with so many participants under CBs supervision trade like an algo? The answer is it's not the almighty Algo entity. The commonality that link all stakeholders is the value of the asset. This common ground make the market look like a single algo entity on our chart. Cheers.
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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #3,233
  • Sep 9, 2022 7:19pm Sep 9, 2022 7:19pm
With regards to scalping, if the open line is the static mean. I use an indicator that dynamically determines the mean with standard deviation.
The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #3,234
  • Sep 9, 2022 7:49pm Sep 9, 2022 7:49pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi FMA, failure simple layman word is the key vocabulary. {quote} You're getting it. {quote} How much did market pay you if you knew the answer? {quote} Since you knew target reached and it's all about deciding point from here, what tools do you have to answer this trade entry question? Look back my previous post, I mentioned learn scalping skills. {quote} Correct. You begin to get the idea how professional traders move value. {quote} Imagine if you hit 50pips every trading day. Risk 0.5% a trade, how much your gain in the long run assuming...
This valuation needs practice because we do not know what is the mean, what is fair value, under/overvaluation unless it is in real time. (I hope I am describing it aptly)

ENTRY:

There was a reaction at previous NY open, a good scalping opportunity but I did not take it, I want the big short here.

Now, if I still rely on the mean of dol and the previous days, it doesn't makes sense anymore because of how the price is overextended, it should fall already at the high of the week.

But no, it extended at MOL and to that little dol at the end of the month.

In my mind, THE MEAN SHIFTED! and perhaps that hit at dol (before MOL) is the overvalue!

So that's it, there was a violent reaction and I made a grand slam.

TP:

If indeed the mean shifted, then we cannot expect the close below dol but only around NY open.

But if the mean did not shift then around WOL is the mean and it might test the low of the week.

Now there seems to be fair value between LO and NYO as price just wanders at that range.

Considering it is friday and the ADR seems "very exhausted", I just closed my positions.
The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #3,235
  • Sep 9, 2022 7:55pm Sep 9, 2022 7:55pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Lots of practise allow you to learn the detail nuances of the market. Key word - detail. You learn how to define the market according to the market as it is, don't make the common mistake to impose assumptions which has no basis. Watch the clock always. Taken note of sessions open times, futures market open times, and stock market open times. These are real market variables. One of the most common reason for assumption is statistical observation. My advice is don't turn trading into a statistical speculation if you're trading value - stick...
Thanks to this, another arsenal added.
The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #3,236
  • Sep 9, 2022 9:31pm Sep 9, 2022 9:31pm
Quoting Viktor
{quote} Having all the answers? No, very far from it... Curious? Always. Still lots to learn... Improving in various aspects (not only as a "trader")? Yes, I like that, and search for it...
I wrote about this in my first post on this thread.

Quoting BWilliam
This is how an educated person think. "And therefore when we go to investigate it we shouldn't pre-decide what it is we're trying to do except to find out more about it." ~ Richard Feynman
Inserted Video


I posted this Feynman video to explore deeper into the difference between knowing and understanding.

Inserted Video
Know what you trade
  • #3,237
  • Sep 9, 2022 10:21pm Sep 9, 2022 10:21pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} I wrote about this in my first post on this thread. {quote} https://youtu.be/QkhBcLk_8f0 I posted this Feynman video to explore deeper into the difference between knowing and understanding. https://youtu.be/NM-zWTU7X-k
A good summary and example by Feynman.

https://coffeeandjunk.com/knowing-something/

Translated to forex. We should just forget about forex or trading in general and learn why price move up or down just as you said. We should learn value.
The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #3,238
  • Sep 10, 2022 1:14am Sep 10, 2022 1:14am
Quoting FulMargnAlch
{quote} A good summary and example by Feynman. https://coffeeandjunk.com/knowing-something/ Translated to forex. We should just forget about forex or trading in general and learn why price move up or down just as you said. We should learn value.
years and years ago i said for new traders , pick one chart like AUD/USA put it on a 30min time frame and watch the movements for a few months when you get time don't trade just watch and write times what happens in your session , i know its boring and 95% of traders dont do it they to busy looking for the holygrail of forex with greed in there eyes instead of learning why things happen and when on a chart , i repeat it every now and then but its a waste of time , because human nature , kindest regards
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #3,239
  • Sep 10, 2022 1:46am Sep 10, 2022 1:46am
Quoting Aussi
.... i know its boring and 95% of traders dont do it they to busy looking for the holygrail of forex with greed in there eyes instead of learning why things happen and when on a chart , i repeat it every now and then but its a waste of time , because human nature , kindest regards
Hi Aussi, it sure feels that way.

It's cool, FF is an interesting place to learn about people. Lots of angry people. Lol Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #3,240
  • Sep 10, 2022 2:34am Sep 10, 2022 2:34am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Aussi, it sure feels that way. It's cool, FF is an interesting place to learn about people. Lots of angry people. Lol Cheers
Hi mate yes i have had my share of lies and personal attacks , i do love FF and i stand up to the bullys and what they miss out on is the cash because they have no understanding , its about the cash not ego
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
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