Today and tomorrow I am expecting EU will move up to level 1.01xx. Technical consideration I see EU is having a chance to reverse its current downtrend in daily timeframe. In my system, the daily downtrend actually started from June 2021; it tried to reverse the trend one time in Jan 2002 but failed.
- #155,682
- Aug 31, 2022 8:25pm Aug 31, 2022 8:25pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Name real with real own way | 23,418 Posts
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
- #155,683
- Edited 10:10pm Aug 31, 2022 9:53pm | Edited 10:10pm
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,312 Posts
{quote} Is it possible to change direction completely without ending wave 5 Dear, I don't know anything about Elliott waves.. only classic analysis
The chart below shows my wave count.. You can see that I put a Fib Extension there, measured from wave 2 to 3 to 4. This forecast technique to guess where wave 5 could end comes from Bill Williams, but I will not go into details here. So according to him, wave 5 can end somewhere between the purple fib extension levels but generally ends around midpoint... And you can see that price actually dipped into this zone. So technically, wave 5 actually reached minimum target. BUT as I said, it still could go deeper to midpoint: 0.9832 area... or even to 0.9705 area... BUT will it? Nobody knows... That's scenario 1... Now, if bulls just keep going higher and take out the high of wave 4 then we will know that wave 5 ended for sure! That would be scenario 2....
I hope it answers
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #155,686
- Aug 31, 2022 10:31pm Aug 31, 2022 10:31pm
- Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Sharing EUR/USD Ideas and Insights | 15,540 Posts
Good day, 15 min chart. Price reached from 1.0009 to 1.0017 time of wrirting.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
- #155,687
- Aug 31, 2022 10:33pm Aug 31, 2022 10:33pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Name real with real own way | 23,418 Posts
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
- #155,688
- Aug 31, 2022 10:57pm Aug 31, 2022 10:57pm
- Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Sharing EUR/USD Ideas and Insights | 15,540 Posts
Good day, 15 min chart. Price reached from 1.0009 to 1.0017 time of wrirting. {image}
Today is not good for the bulls, but EU can recover that missed pips and reach 1.0081 from down here 1.0009 according to volatility which counts 72 pips.
Also on the news US ISM Manufacturing should be the case for a stronger dollar as Europe looks like, it should be in a contraction too and maybe worst in this case with energy crisis slowing manufacturing at least until the numbers come out later!
Have a great and profitable Month!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
- #155,690
- Aug 31, 2022 11:29pm Aug 31, 2022 11:29pm
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,312 Posts
If I had to pick one crucial level for today, it would be 0.999999999 
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #155,692
- Aug 31, 2022 11:39pm Aug 31, 2022 11:39pm
Thursday.
Fed 75 bps hike is almost certain. ECB's 75 bps is getting priced in.
Powell's soft landing is off the table, we can only expect the tug-of-war like scenario for EURUSD this September.
Inflation or no inflation, central banks are moving their rates up, one way or another.
Fed may reach 3.75% in Q1 2023, while ECB may go to 2.25%.
By this time next year, we'll all be talking about rate cuts again.
Into September, I expect price to get capped between 50-SMA and 200-SMA.
Volatility on NFP day may push the price up to $1.015, but market is likely to short into the rising price, bringing it down to $1.
Even in the case of bad NFP, London will do the job for us, shorting it down before they go home.
Let's not forget it's Friday afterall. Monday is typically low volume, so many funds don't trade.
Investors prefer holding USD over the weekend, gaining higher interest rates for three days in a row, before returning on Tuesday.
Through September, I expect EURUSD to trade between 1.01 and 1.03.
My plan remain the same, go long whenever it dips.
Cheers,
Cat
Fed 75 bps hike is almost certain. ECB's 75 bps is getting priced in.
Powell's soft landing is off the table, we can only expect the tug-of-war like scenario for EURUSD this September.
Inflation or no inflation, central banks are moving their rates up, one way or another.
Fed may reach 3.75% in Q1 2023, while ECB may go to 2.25%.
By this time next year, we'll all be talking about rate cuts again.
Into September, I expect price to get capped between 50-SMA and 200-SMA.
Volatility on NFP day may push the price up to $1.015, but market is likely to short into the rising price, bringing it down to $1.
Even in the case of bad NFP, London will do the job for us, shorting it down before they go home.
Let's not forget it's Friday afterall. Monday is typically low volume, so many funds don't trade.
Investors prefer holding USD over the weekend, gaining higher interest rates for three days in a row, before returning on Tuesday.
Through September, I expect EURUSD to trade between 1.01 and 1.03.
My plan remain the same, go long whenever it dips.
Cheers,
Cat
- #155,694
- Aug 31, 2022 11:49pm Aug 31, 2022 11:49pm
- Joined Jun 2020 | Status: Trader | 1,175 Posts
If I had to pick one crucial level for today, it would be 0.999999999
Another day, another dollar.
- #155,695
- Aug 31, 2022 11:51pm Aug 31, 2022 11:51pm
- Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Sharing EUR/USD Ideas and Insights | 15,540 Posts
Thursday. Fed 75 bps hike is almost certain. ECB's 75 bps is getting priced in. Powell's soft landing is off the table, we can only expect the tug-of-war like scenario for EURUSD this September. Inflation or no inflation, central banks are moving their rates up, one way or another. Fed may reach 3.75% in Q1 2023, while ECB may go to 2.25%. By this time next year, we'll all be talking about rate cuts again.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
- #155,696
- Aug 31, 2022 11:57pm Aug 31, 2022 11:57pm
- Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Sharing EUR/USD Ideas and Insights | 15,540 Posts
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
- #155,697
- Sep 1, 2022 12:03am Sep 1, 2022 12:03am
- Joined Aug 2018 | Status: Joyful and Proud | 2,001 Posts
Go my wonderful bears! And bring me the pips!
SL: 1.0053, TP: 0.9967
SL: 1.0053, TP: 0.9967
Risk Management is of utmost importance!
- #155,699
- Sep 1, 2022 12:23am Sep 1, 2022 12:23am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,312 Posts
Focus only on what truly matters!
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