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EURUSD only

So what exactly is Europe doing to bring down energy prices, print money or punish companies? This will only artificially lower inflation in my opinion.
Today and tomorrow I am expecting EU will move up to level 1.01xx. Technical consideration I see EU is having a chance to reverse its current downtrend in daily timeframe. In my system, the daily downtrend actually started from June 2021; it tried to reverse the trend one time in Jan 2002 but failed.
Quoting fontu
H4 close may compete for 0040 now, failing may next 0015/11exact to bull tone next try while 0024 1st confirmation top failure as start! Last option for bull may 9997 h4 closewise! While daily close may compete next day at 9985 if to bull again! Take care. {image}
Overnight fall and no exact h4 close, having top failure confirmed at 0024 and hence next h4 close may compete 0011, limit up 0035 and better 9997 while last bull territory exact 9979. That is continue down till get exact support to bull try again and for the last time apparently. Below 9970 will be bear with inadequate supply to turn into demand!
Not understand?never follow my analyses!
Quoting Hamzalolo
{quote} Is it possible to change direction completely without ending wave 5 Dear, I don't know anything about Elliott waves.. only classic analysis
There is always a wave 5, but sometimes it can fall short.. Technically speaking, for our case, all the requirements to complete wave 5 have actually been met.. So, from now on, both scenarios are possible: 1) It can go lower or 2) it never comes back to previous lows and just keeps going up... Which of the two scenarios would play out is still a mystery... That's why I need more data..

The chart below shows my wave count.. You can see that I put a Fib Extension there, measured from wave 2 to 3 to 4. This forecast technique to guess where wave 5 could end comes from Bill Williams, but I will not go into details here. So according to him, wave 5 can end somewhere between the purple fib extension levels but generally ends around midpoint... And you can see that price actually dipped into this zone. So technically, wave 5 actually reached minimum target. BUT as I said, it still could go deeper to midpoint: 0.9832 area... or even to 0.9705 area... BUT will it? Nobody knows... That's scenario 1... Now, if bulls just keep going higher and take out the high of wave 4 then we will know that wave 5 ended for sure! That would be scenario 2....

I hope it answers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-W1.png Size: 15 KB
Be a seer, not a looker!
Quoting fontu
{quote} Anything can happen before 9900 bear contuation, otherwise 9859/9802 or more down to play from this present level! Before checked. May not back arounds before next 2 months if below those levels next week. Lets see
Yep, apparently the market has already decided on a long-term downtrend for the eur. But before the usd finally consolidates above the eur, there must be a correction.
Yesterday, I hold long EU with an expectation for the correction, but I realized currently there is a mix in rate , Once it goes down, then goes up, and goes down
My daily chart: I will short today in the rally, focus on 1.0030; 1.0100, allocate the suitable lot size for the account safety.

Holding short would be safer than holding long now.

It just my view.

Good luck to all of You.
Good day, 15 min chart. Price reached from 1.0009 to 1.0017 time of wrirting.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 19 KB
Feels right this time!
Quoting Marekus
{quote} Yep, apparently the market has already decided on a long-term downtrend for the eur. But before the usd finally consolidates above the eur, there must be a correction.
may do after a low and new lows even .anyways todays most important level to deal is 9990, low may try respect 9983 , daily close perfect 9987 to bounce , or just fail smooth to the low and new lows this week, pa has good interest breaks the 9968 still intact and was supposed breaks down to up comfort , failed allegedly and only crazy ran to die apparently.. so looks only a last leg up try to fall most probable scenarios now . lets give a clap to bull to keep afloat ! take care
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Not understand?never follow my analyses!
Quoting Js3mwtRc
Good day, 15 min chart. Price reached from 1.0009 to 1.0017 time of wrirting. {image}
EU stumbled at 1.0080 and we all saw what happened after the ADP payrolls the price bounced up then, the real trend which is down on bigger timeframes moved the price to 0.9983 from 1.0019 (ADP high) but some news came out telling that the ECB is going to raise the rate next week another 0.75% up and that is why this mess in pricing happened together with end of Month flows. Fundamentals (war in Ukraine) support a drop to EU bellow 0.9901, but next week the bears should be carefull, the price can overcome 1.0100 and reach at higher levels.

Today is not good for the bulls, but EU can recover that missed pips and reach 1.0081 from down here 1.0009 according to volatility which counts 72 pips.

Also on the news US ISM Manufacturing should be the case for a stronger dollar as Europe looks like, it should be in a contraction too and maybe worst in this case with energy crisis slowing manufacturing at least until the numbers come out later!

Have a great and profitable Month!
Feels right this time!
The USD 1 mark is still considered an important support zone. If this could be defended again in today's trading and used for purchases, daily targets are USD 1.0023 - USD 1.0033 and USD 1.0072. However, below USD 0.9989, a return of the bears is likely. Yesterday's daily low at USD 0.9971 as well as USD 0.9952 and USD 0.9900 - USD 0.9917 would be the next targets.
carpe noctem
If I had to pick one crucial level for today, it would be 0.999999999
Be a seer, not a looker!
15 minutes, ready to jump for 0030 - 0050

Just my expectation.
Thursday.

Fed 75 bps hike is almost certain. ECB's 75 bps is getting priced in.
Powell's soft landing is off the table, we can only expect the tug-of-war like scenario for EURUSD this September.

Inflation or no inflation, central banks are moving their rates up, one way or another.
Fed may reach 3.75% in Q1 2023, while ECB may go to 2.25%.
By this time next year, we'll all be talking about rate cuts again.

Into September, I expect price to get capped between 50-SMA and 200-SMA.
Volatility on NFP day may push the price up to $1.015, but market is likely to short into the rising price, bringing it down to $1.
Even in the case of bad NFP, London will do the job for us, shorting it down before they go home.
Let's not forget it's Friday afterall. Monday is typically low volume, so many funds don't trade.
Investors prefer holding USD over the weekend, gaining higher interest rates for three days in a row, before returning on Tuesday.

Through September, I expect EURUSD to trade between 1.01 and 1.03.
My plan remain the same, go long whenever it dips.

Cheers,
Cat
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} EU stumbled at 1.0080 and we all saw what happened after the ADP payrolls the price bounced up then, the real trend which is down on bigger timeframes moved the price to 0.9983 from 1.0019 (ADP high) but some news came out telling that the ECB is going to raise the rate next week another 0.75% up and that is why this mess in pricing happened together with end of Month flows. Fundamentals (war in Ukraine) support a drop to EU bellow 0.9901, but next week the bears should be carefull, the price can overcome 1.0100 and reach at higher levels....
You make some great points.

The Eurozone's gloomy economic backdrop is likely to keep demand for the Euro suppressed, and from a technical standpoint, EUR/USD remains in a longer-term downtrend, trading in a bearish channel since February. This makes it hard to build a bullish case for EUR despite yesterday's record-high Flash CPI print supporting the ECB's hawkish comments.

However, with focus now on the key US economic data being released over the next couple of days, there is scope for the pair to potentially retest resistance just below 1.0100 should USD pullback on disappointing data.

Of course, all trading carries risk, and EUR/USD may find itself moving back below parity heading into the weekend if the data ultimately reflects continued strength for the American economy.
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
If I had to pick one crucial level for today, it would be 0.999999999
How about 0,998 region?
Another day, another dollar.
Quoting cchin
Thursday. Fed 75 bps hike is almost certain. ECB's 75 bps is getting priced in. Powell's soft landing is off the table, we can only expect the tug-of-war like scenario for EURUSD this September. Inflation or no inflation, central banks are moving their rates up, one way or another. Fed may reach 3.75% in Q1 2023, while ECB may go to 2.25%. By this time next year, we'll all be talking about rate cuts again. Into September, I expect price to get capped between 50-SMA and 200-SMA. Volatility on NFP day may push the price up to $1.015, but...
Hi cchin, rate cuts should worry us next year and its good for the Central Banks to raise hard the rates, so they can combat inflation and we can have some "meat" later when cutting rates. I agree
Feels right this time!
Quoting CityIndex
{quote} You make some great points. The Eurozone's gloomy economic backdrop is likely to keep demand for the Euro suppressed, and from a technical standpoint, EUR/USD remains in a longer-term downtrend, trading in a bearish channel since February. This makes it hard to build a bullish case for EUR despite yesterday's record-high Flash CPI print supporting the ECB's hawkish comments. However, with focus now on the key US economic data being released over the next couple of days, there is scope for the pair to potentially retest resistance just below...
Thank you CityIndex.
Feels right this time!
Go my wonderful bears! And bring me the pips!
SL: 1.0053, TP: 0.9967
Risk Management is of utmost importance!
Quoting RCtrader
Go my wonderful bears! And bring me the pips! SL: 1.0053, TP: 0.9967
Your SL is my TP.

I would go short as price touch there, now I go my short period bull

Good luck to All
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Nestor07