Flying Dutchman

Never heard of Figure 4 but that low is part of a double Bottom ?
It would strengthen a decision to enter a long via "Roadmap" ?
And a lesson in sitting on your hands until price bounces from that first low; and makes a semi circle back to form a double bottom !
I am so pleased I found this thread. A bit like a lego pile where you build your own creation from proven pieces.

When I started my research many years ago, I was not looking for a trading strategy. I wanted to know why price move up and down every trading day.

I don't read books, I don't watch videos. I don't read FF strategy section. I was not a member of FF. And I don't surf FF at that time.

This means that I was not indoctrinated with all these narratives.

It's very important traders think deep about this topic because however and whatever we believe forms the fundamental block of our trading strategy.

That's why when this fundamental belief is questioned traders take offence. They feel insulted. There's no possibility to discuss this topic on forums. It's a taboo subject. Emotions run high.

Whatever the narrative there's a connected assumption. It's these assumptions that we question if they make sense or not.

Most traders are only interested in making profits, ie. the money. As long as the strategy work, make profits they don't question the assumptions. The proof of the assumptions is the profits made. Such is the attitude of retail traders.

I wrote many times, it's your choice. Your money, your responsibility, your choice.

As a trader, ask this one very important question first.

If you're new to trading, it's easier for you. Before you read any strategy or narrative, ask this one important question. Find out what is the most logical and sensible answer.

Why does price move up and down?

I don't want to list down what you read on FF, it's embarrassing. I believe you know.

So spend time think about this very basic question.

Why does price move up and down?

What you think how Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger answer this question?

When you have figured out the answer, it will change completely how you see any market.

Until then, you will trade like every retail trader based on the assumptions given to you on forums like FF and videos. I'm not here to convince you. I'm not here to change you. I wrote another point of view. Cheers

Do proper logical rational technical analysis based on assumptions that're sound, that's grounded and connected to the real world economy and monetary policy.
(Or remain the expert "indicator" trader.)

The pics are self explanatory.
(There's no need for fancy narratives because there's none.)

Why did the markets fall?

Read my previous posts to get the complete picture.


***Ofc I can start a topic on intraday scalping based on value intent. But I won't. This category of expert scalping is already too congested. My advise is don't scalp. Scalping reinforce this indoctrination of ob/os spike. This is the real reason why not. If you're trading purely for the money, then scalp away.

*** The issue is not about better way. The real issue is whether the underlying assumptions make logical sense or not. We should not be afraid to question the core principle.

*** last but not least, these pics are for you, Andy. Thanks for tolerating my spam.

*** With this post I have completed my series of postings. Enjoy your trading. Many pips to everyone. Cheers

Thanks for taking time out to post J.
It’s usually a thankless task but very rewarding when someone benefits from it.
As I have said on many occasions the thread is always open to you. I for one have re-evaluated my thought process regarding longer term analysis having considered your comments.
Cheers.

[quote As a forex trader, it's upon you to read fundamentals and keep up to date. At the minimum, be aware of the current fundamentals issues. [/quote]

BWilliam, sorry I missed your post last week. Well done. As for the fundamental picture, we are seeing a very significant adjustment to FA across the Euro, GBP, JPY, and the USD (a little less so with the AUD and CAD). It is my advice that technical traders keep their stops close and not leave their trading stations unattended when a trade is in play. The next few months will be...interesting. Trade well and trade safe!

How to trade for 50pips value change with all the selling already done in Tokyo session below dol on Monday, adr 68% ?

Can't trade EU now. I was thinking of checking this thread.



Rationale for entry:
1. Rejection and traded below MOL at M5

TP:
1. Might go back to DOL or lower targets with remaining 50+ ADR

Rationale for early TP:
1. Inexperience in reading the market rationally due to years of spike based thinking.

Second entry in pound yen.

Entry rationale:
1. Broke and was rejected below previous WOL valuation, means pound still expensive?
2. Rejected from MOL, means valuation is still or already high?

TP rationale:
1. Current DOL and WOL reevaluation seems to be in order?

I do not know really, I will just record my observations.

Hi all, I am a bit of a lurker. I try to trade during the day and look in here from time to time, to see what can be learned and from who. I have seen and read many threads, I have learned some great things during my few years popping in and out and I have learned some rubbish (mostly indicators). I have read probably 50 trading books that all belong in the bin.

I follow ICTs concepts in the main, Using FVGs, Liquidity sweeps, Time of Day, Daily open, PDL, PDH week and month high/lows breakers and Order blocks etc. I must say, having cut all the crap, all the flashing lights and wiggly lines out of my charts and have found it easier to trade. Don't get me wrong, I am not saying I am making fortunes, I am still early in my journey and have a lot to learn but l am getting there slowly. This thread and Bilals thread has probably helped me the most. SO I wanted to thank you all for your efforts and selfless education of others. Its difficult to post things on here at times I know, there are many who troll and have nothing better to do that rip apart another persons work because they don't understand it, its too simple or it wonk work for them.

Thanks to BlueSteele, Bilal, Time tells and BWilliam GEfx in particular for the thought provoking insights. Even Rick M and Ryu for without all the Provocation and also the questions from all the others still early in their journey, there wouldn't be so much value here. (edit* I forgot to add more names, for that I am sorry there is too many to keep mentioning but add Moodybot for starting the thread and poking and prodding also.)

With warm regards
Dave

Why does price move up and down?
It's a question that has puzzled FF from the start as far as I can see.
Firstly it was "buyers and sellers". Easy..if it moves up there's more buyers than sellers. That's that sorted..let's go make money !
Then there was "supply and demand" ... that's what's doing it. There's lots of "demand" down there so that's what bounced price. But wait a minute..sometimes it slices right through..hmm...Fat Fingers? Or maybe that great crowd of demand buyers wasn't there?
Then there was the more indepth talk of order types. "Limit orders can't move the market..only new market orders coming in can move the market".
Of course there's a zillion other things that "might" move price up or down...Fib levels, Pivots, FVGs etc.

BUT, I know you are not hinting at ANY of these. In a way, these are all "reactionary" reasons as to why prices moves. For you, it's something that's there, that happens BEFORE any of these things (as evidenced by predicting the path of price in advance). Fundamental analysis, you've mentioned that a lot lately...hmm, I've never been a big fan of that I have to admit (as a short term trader). Of course one has to be aware of the timing of news announcements, but the actual "news" contained therein? It's always been my belief that the Big Boys are most of the time going to know any data releases and these events are just used as a shakeout. Ok, I admit a hugely different number might cause enough folk to reconsider the "value" of the asset in question and we may need to be aware of a LONG TERM bias shift.

Why does price move up and down? .... Because it has to . If the roulette wheel ain't spinning, there's no more new money gonna be placed on the table.

From traders I've talked to over the years, I believe nearly ALL the successful ones end up believing that future price is an unknown and the way to profit in this game is risk/ money management. I like your posts. They come at trading from a completely different angle than the other 99%. IFMYANTE was another trader who thought outside the box. He also had a very good perception of the path of price and certain levels that had to be respected.

There's a great bunch of traders and thinkers in this thread. It would be really great to see their own conclusions on the question you asked. Thanks BW for the motivation.

P.S. an observation from your post 2723-
The GJ chart is the only one that you carry the open line from the previous week through (blue). It's also the only chart where the previous week open fell between the current WOL and the MOL. GJ was much more choppy and directionless than the other charts (with the 3 lines in close proximity). I need to think a bit more about that

"You're Off The Edge Of The Map, Mate." Hactor Barbosa

at what point did you know that price wants to trade back to the dol and wol?

When I made the post, that's why I made it. Did anyone know too?

Monalisa piccy

ps piccy not mine
pss so lotta people know

Nice monalisa piccy.

Did anyone know have to close long trades and go short ?

5 years more son ....

Does nasdaq have any options London close?

I knew that, but i checked i couldn't tell what it was just like that the 161.37 on 8/24/22 that also made it to the dol.

Nice. The short trade at dol is so obvious.
It's going up to dol again, this time don't sell.

Look at nasdaq, how many nasdaq traders knew there's no option except to fly?

Hi Danger-Mouse, I appreciate much you take the trouble to write your thoughts. Thank you. If experienced traders can contribute to share their thoughts about the question. It'll benefit many.

About what you listed, the fairy tale gets more and more fancy over the years. Shall I say, they're all junk.

To trade with an edge, we must know how market will value the asset in the FUTURE, aka value intent. That's why volume data at market is useless variable to determine future value - we're talking 50pips minimum.

Btw real time at market volume data as a "reactionary" reason is the most persuasive.

I wrote, traditional technical analysis is useless in forecasting future value. Volume data can't tell what the next future 50pips is like. Logic tell us none of that on the list tell us anything about the future value.

So, what does the retail trader has in his toolkit that tell about the future value of the asset? Step back, start thinking from today about future value aka value intent.

Answer(most common) - fade the ob/os spike aka market extreme.

Chat with a RICS, find out how the professionals do it in the property sector.

The key question is how to determine if the asset will sustain current value, and whether there's upside or downside potential. At what point is a recalibration in order. Ofc, orientated to dol, wol and mol.