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Flying Dutchman

  • #2,701
  • Aug 26, 2022 11:14am Aug 26, 2022 11:14am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} The blue rectangle 162.10-20 is the mol region. Mol - 162.116 There are 2 parts that move this market. First is the bullish or bearish bias for the now market. The bias was bullish from London session going into NY session. There was this Powell's speech. This guy open his mouth move market. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newse...l20220826a.htm The more dominant aspect of the market is the value intent. Market is likely to trade below wol. The result, we have two halfs to the market today. The first half...

wow!! who would have thought!.
"Market has risen from the low to 161.371 going into NY market, interesting level.

Right now, market trades 51pips below - 161.245. Dol - 161.759, high 161.884, low 160.832, day range - 106pips, ADR20 - 179pips (59%)"
I ask again this 161.37 level, what is it? algo math level for the week?
  • #2,702
  • Aug 26, 2022 11:18am Aug 26, 2022 11:18am
Quoting angelofx
wow!! who would have thought!. "Market has risen from the low to 161.371 going into NY market, interesting level. Right now, market trades 51pips below - 161.245. Dol - 161.759, high 161.884, low 160.832, day range - 106pips, ADR20 - 179pips (59%)" I ask again this 161.37 level, what is it? algo math level for the week?
Trade secret.
Know what you trade
  • #2,703
  • Aug 26, 2022 11:20am Aug 26, 2022 11:20am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Trade secret.
That's fine. Thank you.
  • #2,704
  • Aug 26, 2022 1:41pm Aug 26, 2022 1:41pm
Hi Bwilliam.

Thanks alot for your input this week. You are really changing the way i look at the market. Good work! Thank you!

Just like Angelofx, that 161.37 level has been giving me some dry scratch on my humongous bald
  • #2,705
  • Aug 26, 2022 5:57pm Aug 26, 2022 5:57pm
Fantastic posts this week from various contributors and a big shout out to BW, you’re helping a great many people. Myself included.
Thanks.
  • #2,706
  • Edited 11:34pm Aug 26, 2022 10:22pm | Edited 11:34pm
Quoting BWilliam
This was my simple macro analysis for Friday. {quote} A simple market analysis made in early London market. Most traders are "indicator" traders- they use some type of "indicator" to tell them to buy or sell. That's what I wrote earlier. As a value trader, I look at the value of the asset I trade. I look for over and under-valuation marked against fair value. The fair value today is wol. {image}
Notice I have not posted any charts. I don't want to influence your market analysis. Here's the chart analysis for Friday. It had all the complications with the market trading above and below all three open lines - dol, wol, mol. It was not a normal day.

In my macro analysis I referred to wol.
And mol is so near wol indicated this triple open line is on the card.
Check the fundamentals we get Powell with his speech. Fundamentals tie in with chart analysis, time already known.
Market will make a statement about the value today.
Prepare for the ride as the big question is on recalibration. Yes or no.

I wrote earlier, our macro analysis must tie in with fundamentals.
It make no sense if we do chart analysis with no relation to the real world monetary policy.

My macro analysis is simple directly addressing this fundamentals question.
The answer is no.
There's nothing about the market and economy that the market participants don't already know.
Powell told nothing new to warrant recalibration.

If your fundamentals analysis come to this same no verdict, then the chart analysis becomes simple.
If the verdict is yes, this market will close above target3.

The chart is self explanatory.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gy1.PNG Size: 15 KB
Know what you trade
  • #2,707
  • Edited Aug 27, 2022 11:13am Aug 26, 2022 10:41pm | Edited Aug 27, 2022 11:13am
In both these posts, I explained the factors that move the market.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post14115092
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post14115528

The ideas offered on forum are too simplistic, incomplete, and unrealistic with imaginary assumptions that has no relation whatsoever to the real world economy, fiscal and monetary policy.

That's the problem with retail forex analysis.
They are mostly "indicator" centric.

This orientation to dol, wol and mol is an attempt to relate the macro analysis to basic valuation of the asset we trade.
In face of complexity, I devise a simple solution for retail forex.
Technical analysis that's orientated to open lines - above or below.

As a forex trader, it's upon you to read fundamentals and keep up to date.
At the minimum, be aware of the current fundamentals issues.

For the rest, read my earlier posts where I delve on specific topics.

Enjoy the weekend. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #2,708
  • Edited Aug 27, 2022 2:31am Aug 26, 2022 10:54pm | Edited Aug 27, 2022 2:31am
Majority of traders are "indicator" traders.

The result is trading to reverse spike.
Fade the extreme.

Or to trade the momentum after the spike.
A physics concept which assumes price as an object.

Both has this common denominator, ie. spike.

In short, most retail trading ideas are devised around spikes.
No spike means no trade.
Signal alerts are spike calibrated alerts.
Ofc there's the spike dashboard.

Packaged with different creative narratives.

Traders chose the narrative on offer that best suit them.

These spike strategies are simple and can be profitable.
There are plenty of expert spike scalpers.
There are plenty of expert spike triggered swing traders.

The thing to realise is all these ideas are spike centric with different narratives.
Raise your awareness.

Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #2,709
  • Edited Aug 27, 2022 2:38am Aug 26, 2022 10:55pm | Edited Aug 27, 2022 2:38am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Well - I got that spectacularly wrong - I'll get me coat ! This is why I have to continue with my Roadmap approach in conjunction with new ideas gleaned from this thread - Roadmap would have saved my bacon in a real trade and got me short around your 161.799 wol May I ask BW - why the huge spike up into 162.700 - ish ? What is your Blue rectangle derived from please? EDIT: 4:44pm And that last explosive high on the 15 min chart taking out the immediate nearby 15 minute high. Am I correct in thinking that ICT ( and maybe others)...
People who price these markets, it is upto them where they wanted to take the price m15 high or h4 or wherever, it is upto them how much air they want to blow in the baloon when to inflate and when to deflate but how the algo moves is the catch.

what did price do?
same two things taking a prev high / into an old fvg (high to low and mid level)

GJ - D1 - is this precise ? yes to the pip.
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Seeing D1 chart in H1:

Oh there is an order block too
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- That's how i manage to enter even below the daily open for long yesterday
with no intention to devalue any one here, its knowledge and understanding sharing.
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GJ - M15 - Intraday chart:
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how would we as a trader find out from where it has to flip?
never enter when price sweeps a high or low, unless it is landing on a fvg like GJ yesterday my entry, else one wont know how far it can go otherwise, so wait for price to show of hands by a fvg and then need to see PA on LTF and take small chances to get your fill.

and yes, one can anticipate sessions/daily/weekly/monthly high and lows for a flip.

opsss ... the secrets revealed how ICT anticipates prices to move according to algo

regards
bilal
"Exchange of hands"
  • #2,710
  • Aug 26, 2022 11:39pm Aug 26, 2022 11:39pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Where is the LO on your chart please and what time do you mark it as...8am etc? Thankyou W
hi, London Open is 10am as per my charts.
  • #2,711
  • Aug 27, 2022 12:44am Aug 27, 2022 12:44am
Quoting whitesta
{quote} hi, London Open is 10am as per my charts.
Same.
  • #2,712
  • Edited 11:01am Aug 27, 2022 2:42am | Edited 11:01am
Quoting BWilliam
Majority of traders are "indicator" traders. The result is trading to reverse spike. Fade the extreme. Or to trade the momentum after the spike. A physics concept which assumes price as an object. Both has this common denominator, ie. spike. In short, most retail trading ideas are devised around spikes. No spike means no trade. Signal alerts are spike calibrated alerts. Ofc there's the spike dashboard. Packaged with different creative narratives. Traders chose the narrative on offer that best suit them. These spike strategies are simple and can...
continue...

When the base idea is to fade spikes, there's a connected assumption that price is overbought or oversold.
That's why price rebound strongly from this overbought and oversold zone.
Supposedly the rebound changes the market sentiment.
What's the explanation for this change at supposed ob/os zones?

But if price do rebound from this ob/os zone. then price should stop moving after it got out of this ob/os zone.

This means price just return back to where it was before this ob/os spike.

And traders are assuming there are clusters of stop losses sitting in this ob/os zone.
Order clusters are sitting in this ob/os zones.
That's the incentive that caused the spike

I can't see a single order of whatever type on my mt4 chart.
Perhaps it's due to my poor eyesight.

We're told to get access to futures data for this purpose which is supposedly representative of the interbank fx market orders.

Lets assume all these assumptions are true, why do price change sentiment after spiking into ob/os zones and rebounding out of it?

The explanation is, the rebound caused a new momentum in the opposite direction.

Momentum is an assumption from the physics textbook that price behave as an object.

Why do we naturally accept such assumptions?

Because there's credibility when this comes from some successful trader.

Why do adults switch off their brains when they see $$$, readily accept assumptions without proper logical, rational assessment?
----------------------------------------------------------------------

What's the end result from this base assumption?

Plenty of colourful and creative narratives.
The more sophisticated the better.
Packaged with nice ribbons to hide the base assumption of ob/os.

Plenty of controversial assumptions to deliberate on and discuss.

Cheers

*** replace ob/os with whatever creative jargons.

*** Are you the typical ob/os trader?

*** did I offend anyone? Ofc I do.
Don't click the like button that identify you, just read and think.

If you want to change the way you see the market, then start by recognising this ob/os spike centered assumption given to you. You accepted it with both arms. If you don't begin to be aware of this indoctrination and take action to remove it together with all the connected assumptions, there's no change. Extreme hard truth.
Know what you trade
  • #2,713
  • Aug 27, 2022 3:22am Aug 27, 2022 3:22am
Bilal what are your views for cable in terms of learning. Please could you set your views out as above.
  • #2,714
  • Aug 27, 2022 3:31am Aug 27, 2022 3:31am
Bilal in terms of your gbpjpy example I see price opening up towards 161.450 and then selling down again through your bottom yellow line. What are your thoughts in terms of interest.
  • #2,715
  • Aug 27, 2022 3:46am Aug 27, 2022 3:46am
Where do you get your weekly, monthly,daily and pre/daily low and high values from because they differ from mine?
  • #2,716
  • Aug 27, 2022 4:37am Aug 27, 2022 4:37am
BWiiliam do you please have a good mt4 Weekly and Monthly opens indicator. I have a couple of options in my archives from years ago which no longer work.
  • #2,717
  • Aug 27, 2022 4:56am Aug 27, 2022 4:56am
Here is an excellent Open Line indicator by Cja , it can be set for Daily, Weekly & Monthly, also into the past.
You can apply indicator multiple times for more lines :

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Open levels v1 nmc.ex4   78 KB | 369 downloads

This a very useful ADR lines indicator, which changes colour when ADR levels are achieved. Of course lines will move during the day until either the low or high of the day is established.

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 !SM_ADR_Marker.ex4   12 KB | 334 downloads

MTF Hi Low indicator :

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 MTF_HI_LOW_v1.1j.ex4   51 KB | 352 downloads
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #2,718
  • Aug 27, 2022 5:00am Aug 27, 2022 5:00am
Quoting Houtbay
Bilal what are your views for cable in terms of learning. Please could you set your views out as above.
do the learning on ES-Minis (learn directly from the source i.e., Michael J Huddleston aka ICT) follow him on twitter and YouTube to watch his stuff.
Inserted Video


Quoting Houtbay
Bilal in terms of your gbpjpy example I see price opening up towards 161.450 and then selling down again through your bottom yellow line. What are your thoughts in terms of interest.
I assume it is related to interest rates, please refer below earlier post:
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post14038854

Quoting Houtbay
Where do you get your weekly, monthly,daily and pre/daily low and high values from because they differ from mine?
Wicks may differ candles may remain the same, i get the price feed from IC Market broker and the MT4 indicator plot them accordingly.

regards
bilal
"Exchange of hands"
  • #2,719
  • Aug 27, 2022 5:38am Aug 27, 2022 5:38am
Quoting handy148
BWiiliam do you please have a good mt4 Weekly and Monthly opens indicator. I have a couple of options in my archives from years ago which no longer work.
Hi handy148, let me explain abit about the open lines indicator that fit our requirement.

For most of the open line indicators, they don't do 2 things -

1. They don't plot beyond current candle in smaller timeframe.

2. They plot only current candle, no lookbacks.

The first pic is Nih98 indicator. The 2nd pic open lines indicator.

So I had to use Nih98 indicator for this purpose. Use the open line plot, remove the rest.

And if you're looking for adr history plot, I posted R4M indicator here.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post13104989
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: d1.PNG Size: 15 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: d2.PNG Size: 16 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 ! NIH98 Open Price Pct Range Mapping Indi.ex4   23 KB | 467 downloads
Know what you trade
  • #2,720
  • Aug 27, 2022 5:57am Aug 27, 2022 5:57am
One more thing if you use it for different open lines, example dol, wol and mol, you have to name them in the first input field - OPPRM.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: d3.PNG Size: 8 KB
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