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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #678,801
  • Aug 26, 2022 10:22pm Aug 26, 2022 10:22pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} Reverso, did you test how many times the SL at round number had been hit in your strategy?
I dont think so, may i know whats the reason behind this question? Are you saying SL is more likely to hit at round numbers?
All i know is theoretically my win rate will be around 60-70% if all the trades taken in that month itself are correct and with no regrets.
At this point clearly i did go against my rule sometimes and end up in regrets, i havent exactly master my discipline and emotions yet, but it is significantly better now compared to july.

I am thinking of only trade if i feel extremely comfortable of the setup, sort of what you all called "sniper trading". It's better to be comfortable with the strong trades, and not trade at all if the price action is erratic enough just like the Friday we just had. More trades not necessarily better, i need to get rid of this urge to trade when the trade is not there, or subpar trades. I think I unknowingly adopted this habit of "addiction to trade" along the way, need to get rid of it.
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  • #678,802
  • Aug 26, 2022 10:42pm Aug 26, 2022 10:42pm
Quoting Inthebox
usd index room to rise {image}
do you think that we will open with a gbp gap
  • #678,803
  • Aug 26, 2022 10:47pm Aug 26, 2022 10:47pm
Quoting Reverso
{quote} I dont think so, may i know whats the reason behind this question? Are you saying SL is more likely to hit at round numbers? All i know is theoretically my win rate will be around 60-70% if all the trades taken in that month itself are correct and with no regrets. At this point clearly i did go against my rule sometimes and end up in regrets, i havent exactly master my discipline and emotions yet, but it is significantly better now compared to july. I am thinking of only trade if i feel extremely comfortable of the setup, sort of what you...
Generally, the price tends to test few times before reversal.

It happened yesterday. Initially the price held at 1750 which gave a bounce of 40 pips.

Then the price fell to test 1750. If 1750 was held, then one can go long there. However, 1750 broke and fell to 1730.

That is why you can see Pat 's long.. he mentioned in his post, the long is not going to moon.

What he means, there is some bounce but again the price likely to fall.

There are traders to trade first bounce.

There are traders to trade retouch of support and trade the bounce.

I hope you got the point.
Intraday only.
  • #678,804
  • Aug 26, 2022 10:57pm Aug 26, 2022 10:57pm
Quoting navk
{quote} Generally, the price tends to test few times before reversal. It happened yesterday. Initially the price held at 1750 which gave a bounce of 40 pips. Then the price fell to test 1750. If 1750 was held, then one can go long there. However, 1750 broke and fell to 1730. That is why you can see Pat 's long.. he mentioned in his post, the long is not going to moon. What he means, there is some bounce but again the price likely to fall. There are traders to trade first bounce. There are traders to trade retouch of support and trade the bounce....
Yup, thanks, your explanation is very clear, i am the type to trade when i see the setup/pattern is there, the issue with waiting for retrace is that the price might not retrace and just go all the way, missing a trade that would have TP. Of course the merit of waiting for retrace is tighter stop which result in easier TP and also confidence, but sometimes it might just continue to head to wrong direction after retrace.

I guess one just have to pick one poison, see which suits them more.
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  • #678,805
  • Aug 26, 2022 11:12pm Aug 26, 2022 11:12pm
Quoting navk
{quote} Generally, the price tends to test few times before reversal. It happened yesterday. Initially the price held at 1750 which gave a bounce of 40 pips. Then the price fell to test 1750. If 1750 was held, then one can go long there. However, 1750 broke and fell to 1730. That is why you can see Pat 's long.. he mentioned in his post, the long is not going to moon. What he means, there is some bounce but again the price likely to fall. There are traders to trade first bounce. There are traders to trade retouch of support and trade the bounce....
what do you think about this
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  • #678,806
  • Aug 26, 2022 11:34pm Aug 26, 2022 11:34pm
Quoting dempire1
{quote} Maybe because indicators are a lot slower when you don't have anything on the right side of the chart ? And when you "backtest" with right side of the chart then it all makes sense?
It's working the same before and after
I just need the diseplan to take the signal when it appears, and not try to rewrite the strategy and decide that it's the opposite
If it's a signal for long, then i don't need go short because i think it's supposed to go down
,no, if the signal is short , so go short idiot
yes yes yes
  • #678,807
  • Aug 26, 2022 11:58pm Aug 26, 2022 11:58pm
Quoting Moty
According to the new strategy I should have earned at least 50 pips if I tried to earn only 10 pips in each trade, so how come I have $0.69 in my account ? {image}
Are you stop using bb stop?
  • #678,808
  • Aug 27, 2022 12:41am Aug 27, 2022 12:41am
Quoting navk
{quote} Generally, the price tends to test few times before reversal. It happened yesterday. Initially the price held at 1750 which gave a bounce of 40 pips. Then the price fell to test 1750. If 1750 was held, then one can go long there. However, 1750 broke and fell to 1730. That is why you can see Pat 's long.. he mentioned in his post, the long is not going to moon. What he means, there is some bounce but again the price likely to fall. There are traders to trade first bounce. There are traders to trade retouch of support and trade the bounce....
Yeah 1.1850 was a good price to start shorting. It was wiser to wait for the price to return below this price and only then put SL 20 pips.
  • #678,809
  • Aug 27, 2022 1:23am Aug 27, 2022 1:23am
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Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} wtf tl e?
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I was hoping for doji on the weekly we can see the breakout but has it confirmed to the low side . If so it could ???? Be time to buy . . As ever .regards B
  • #678,810
  • Aug 27, 2022 1:33am Aug 27, 2022 1:33am
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the breakout ti the low never confirmed . Would of caught traders out .. top box …. The down and the pull back to a fib … classic … we seen the weekly tl break as before .. now is it trying to catch you out again .. so we note that . . But it’s broke a low . No good news from GU gold might be going dow and this normally moves the same way
  • #678,811
  • Aug 27, 2022 1:42am Aug 27, 2022 1:42am
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so which one to trade . Long of the little bull candle ..or break to 1700 and more down .. or Sundays open shoot down big bounce to start new trend long to 1.300 that’s my notes
  • #678,812
  • Aug 27, 2022 2:17am Aug 27, 2022 2:17am
How are you buyers???

Not to worry hold your position as your MM was pretty good.

Think you need hedge for a week at least

Some bird told me a group of Boyance (not Beyoncé) will enter the GBP's market on Friday, 2 hours after Street Trader came in (19.30 Jakarta) to market

For this week its good to scalp Short GU.

Ghazprom still have a problem isn't it ?
I am completely a lazy Trader & Pennies Rebate Hunter
  • #678,813
  • Aug 27, 2022 2:20am Aug 27, 2022 2:20am
Elbert3 nice to have you back. Great charts and I do agree with your view.
  • #678,814
  • Aug 27, 2022 2:21am Aug 27, 2022 2:21am
Elbert3 is the charting done off your cell phone?
  • #678,815
  • Aug 27, 2022 2:35am Aug 27, 2022 2:35am
After hawkish Powell talk, all efforts for weakening USD failed so far. Especially , failure to maintain over 1.18326 (red horizontal line) at the end of week, temporarily, so hard to think another rally GU.

Technically, the price turns back to the main down trend for another trial towards 1.15931 (23 March).

Just my personal idea.

Good luck to all of you.
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  • #678,816
  • Aug 27, 2022 2:41am Aug 27, 2022 2:41am
Quoting mike79
After hawkish Powell talk, all efforts for weakening USD failed so far. Especially , failure to maintain over 1.18326 (red horizontal line) at the end of week, temporarily, so hard to think another rally GU. Technically, the price turns back to the main down trend for another trial towards 1.15931 (23 March). Just my personal idea. Good luck to all of you. {image}
It didn’t seem very hawkish, he said tough times to come, which basically covers him incase things go to pot he can always say told you so.. overall more hawkish than dovish but a tread carefully message
Insane in the Brain..
  • #678,817
  • Aug 27, 2022 3:13am Aug 27, 2022 3:13am
Elbert 3 following on from your charts I see Gbpusd heading down to your line 1.17 and then retracing up a few hundred pips before selling down again through this level
  • #678,818
  • Edited 3:46am Aug 27, 2022 3:24am | Edited 3:46am
Quoting mike79
After hawkish Powell talk, all efforts for weakening USD failed so far. Especially , failure to maintain over 1.18326 (red horizontal line) at the end of week, temporarily, so hard to think another rally GU. Technically, the price turns back to the main down trend for another trial towards 1.15931 (23 March). Just my personal idea. Good luck to all of you. {image}
likely bear continued and hold , why to retrace again and again . look next support arounds 1660/34 and 1500 towards better ones below 1300 , and 1.1150 though with or without great correction . lets see
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #678,819
  • Aug 27, 2022 4:12am Aug 27, 2022 4:12am
Friday initial pump due to Powell touched and retest long term pivot then reversed massively from there.
Calculated the daily pivot for next Monday ahead of time, due to erratic price action, the pivot area is very wide, if "what goes down must go up" saying is true, we will spend Monday doing some retracing, but general trend now is down due to below long term pivot.

Not going to trade on Monday anyway, it is GBP bank holiday, i do not trade on bank holidays.
We have red news for the rest of the week concerning GU pair, 1 of which is NFP on Friday, will exit any ongoing trade near that time if the trade doesnt have an outcome.

It's going to be an exciting week ahead i guess? This is a perfect week to practice patience and refrain from trading, i will stay put and trade only necessary, sniper style, see if my return will be significantly improved by this way. Signing off, going to enjoy my weekend.
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  • #678,820
  • Aug 27, 2022 5:19am Aug 27, 2022 5:19am
To me, the 1735 close on friday, along with the daily chart setup, is bullish. To me its a good long into 2000+.

Might be wrong, of course.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
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