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Flying Dutchman

  • #2,681
  • Aug 26, 2022 8:43am Aug 26, 2022 8:43am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Is it possible to know the future market before a single trade is executed? This is the key zone for NY session. Above or below? {image}
Price bounced up off the previous 4 hour high ?
Upwards?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,682
  • Aug 26, 2022 8:46am Aug 26, 2022 8:46am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Is it possible to know the future market before a single trade is executed? This is the key zone for NY session. Above or below? {image}
you're unrivaled on here at picking these levels BW. I was reading up on ADR to see if there's other uses other than price exhaustion or extension but so far nothing.

I like this hands on session that you're currently doing but it's getting harder and harder to digest but go on i believe it will be helpful to at least one person.
One question though, the adr indicator on your profile will it help shorten the learning curve in any way? I want to download it.

What did you see in the 162.10-20? Is it in anyway related to ADR?

INtent
undervalue/ overvalue
dol/wol/mol
adr
levels
bias for the day
lots of interesting topics
please continue and thank you for sharing from your wealth of knowledge
  • #2,683
  • Aug 26, 2022 9:01am Aug 26, 2022 9:01am
Quoting angelofx
{quote} you're unrivaled on here at picking these levels BW. I was reading up on ADR to see if there's other uses other than price exhaustion or extension but so far nothing. I like this hands on session that you're currently doing but it's getting harder and harder to digest but go on i believe it will be helpful to at least one person. One question though, the adr indicator on your profile will it help shorten the learning curve in any way? I want to download it. What did you see in the 162.10-20? Is it in anyway related to ADR? INtent undervalue/...
Here you go. I modified the original indicator.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 ADR_no_sunday_bar.v1.ex4   14 KB | 364 downloads
Know what you trade
  • #2,684
  • Aug 26, 2022 9:10am Aug 26, 2022 9:10am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Is it possible to know the future market before a single trade is executed? This is the key zone for NY session. Above or below? {image}
hell yeah!!
Above-162.98
  • #2,685
  • Aug 26, 2022 9:13am Aug 26, 2022 9:13am
Quoting turnip15
Price bounced up off the previous 4 hour high ? Upwards?
Keep watching. Jot down how you feel.
Know what you trade
  • #2,686
  • Aug 26, 2022 9:14am Aug 26, 2022 9:14am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} GJ (140+ pips) {image}
Beauty B !
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #2,687
  • Aug 26, 2022 9:18am Aug 26, 2022 9:18am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Keep watching. Jot down how you feel.
eyes wide open like a drugstore!!
  • #2,688
  • Aug 26, 2022 9:33am Aug 26, 2022 9:33am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Keep watching. Jot down how you feel.
she's using 162.10-20 as support...
  • #2,689
  • Aug 26, 2022 9:45am Aug 26, 2022 9:45am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Keep watching. Jot down how you feel.
Worried -eating more ginger biscuits than I should as I watch price retreat to previous yesterday high - clueless !
watching that red line ( 5 minute chart)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY_2022-08-26_15-43-16_d48ab.png Size: 92 KB
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,690
  • Aug 26, 2022 10:04am Aug 26, 2022 10:04am
Bluesteele un going to have to unfollow you!!!!!! Hehehe you hit son much the like button that you collapse my inbox
Heheheheh
  • #2,691
  • Aug 26, 2022 10:13am Aug 26, 2022 10:13am
Are we getting the week's high and low on the same day?
  • #2,692
  • Aug 26, 2022 10:14am Aug 26, 2022 10:14am
This was my simple macro analysis for Friday.

Quoting BWilliam
The macro analysis for Friday is straight forward. Market has problems to trade above wol. High target - 162.987, low target 161.32/160.832 Daily range has narrowed. If this range expands, there's good money to make else another dull day. Cheers
A simple market analysis made in early London market.

Most traders are "indicator" traders- they use some type of "indicator" to tell them to buy or sell. That's what I wrote earlier.

As a value trader, I look at the value of the asset I trade. I look for over and under-valuation marked against fair value. The fair value today is wol.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gy3.PNG Size: 8 KB
Know what you trade
  • #2,693
  • Aug 26, 2022 10:19am Aug 26, 2022 10:19am
Quoting BWilliam
This was my simple macro analysis for Friday. {quote} A simple market analysis made in early London market. Most traders are "indicator" traders- they use some type of "indicator" to tell them to buy or sell. As a value trader, I look at the value of the asset I trade. I look for over and under-valuation marked against fair value. The fair value today is wol.
Would you suggest reading up on asset valuation models?
  • #2,694
  • Aug 26, 2022 10:24am Aug 26, 2022 10:24am
Happy Turnip
Nasdaq worked well for me albeit I was wary of news coming out.
In short, the ideas I have gleaned on this thread have helped enormously with confidence when using my normal approach.
I have much to learn here and I am grateful to people who give their time so generously. Lots of notes taken and charts printed for later study.
Enjoy your weekend all. And to those who have helped me thus far; thank-you.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NAS100_2022-08-26_16-18-46_9d701.png Size: 167 KB
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,695
  • Aug 26, 2022 10:42am Aug 26, 2022 10:42am
Quoting angelofx
Would you suggest reading up on asset valuation models?
Read up and watch utube videos on value investing which are mostly on stocks. Glean ideas how the best value investors do it. The difficult part is determine fair value calculation. It's actually not difficult, dol, wol and mol with the simple question of above or below that means value intent.
Know what you trade
  • #2,696
  • Aug 26, 2022 10:44am Aug 26, 2022 10:44am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Keep watching. Jot down how you feel.
Well - I got that spectacularly wrong - I'll get me coat !

This is why I have to continue with my Roadmap approach in conjunction with new ideas gleaned from this thread - Roadmap would have saved my bacon in a real trade and got me short around your 161.799 wol

May I ask BW - why the huge spike up into 162.700 - ish ?
What is your Blue rectangle derived from please?

EDIT: 4:44pm
And that last explosive high on the 15 min chart taking out the immediate nearby 15 minute high. Am I correct in thinking that ICT ( and maybe others) refer to this as taking out stops etc before reversing into desired direction - and swinging from open line up and back down to open line ( brown line) ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY_2022-08-26_16-34-44_e01dc.png Size: 147 KB
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,697
  • Aug 26, 2022 10:53am Aug 26, 2022 10:53am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Well - I got that spectacularly wrong - I'll get me coat ! This is why I have to continue with my Roadmap approach in conjunction with new ideas gleaned from this thread - Roadmap would have saved my bacon in a real trade and got me short around your 161.799 wol May I ask BW - why the huge spike up into 162.700 - ish ? What is your Blue rectangle derived from please? EDIT: 4:44pm And that last explosive high on the 15 min chart taking out the immediate nearby 15 minute high. Am I correct in thinking that ICT ( and...

you're not alone.
  • #2,698
  • Aug 26, 2022 10:58am Aug 26, 2022 10:58am
Quoting turnip15
Well - I got that spectacularly wrong - I'll get me coat ! This is why I have to continue with my Roadmap approach in conjunction with new ideas gleaned from this thread - Roadmap would have saved my bacon in a real trade and got me short around your 161.799 wol May I ask BW - why the huge spike up into 162.700 - ish ? What is your Blue rectangle derived from please? EDIT: 4:44pm And that last explosive high on the 15 min chart taking out the immediate nearby 15 minute high. Am I correct in thinking that ICT ( and maybe others)...
The blue rectangle 162.10-20 is the mol region. Mol - 162.116

There are 2 parts that move this market.

First is the bullish or bearish bias for the now market.

The bias was bullish from London session going into NY session.

There was this Powell's speech. This guy open his mouth move market.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newse...l20220826a.htm

The more dominant aspect of the market is the value intent. Market is likely to trade below wol.

The result, we have two halfs to the market today.

The first half is the bullish hemisphere. We look for buy opportunities.

The 2nd half is the bearish hemisphere where market correct the over-valuation. We look for sell opportunities.

That's the simple explanation that happens every trading day.

That's why if you're a typical "indicator" trader you have no idea this would happen. Except to follow what your "indicator tell you.

If you're the fundamental trader, pour through Powell's speech to glean for pointers how it affect the current market.

Remember, it all comes down to the value of the asset.

Have a great weekend everyone. Cheers.
Know what you trade
  • #2,699
  • Aug 26, 2022 10:59am Aug 26, 2022 10:59am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Read up and watch utube videos on value investing which are mostly on stocks. Glean ideas how the best value investors do it. The difficult part is determine fair value calculation. It's actually not difficult, dol, wol and mol with the simple question of above or below that means value intent.
I sure will! You did great this week. With sessions like these our knowledge will grow in leaps and bounds.

Thank you.
  • #2,700
  • Aug 26, 2022 11:10am Aug 26, 2022 11:10am
I volunteered to do a real time market analysis this week so that it gives reality to what I wrote on this thread. This is the only way for you to experience first hand what I mean. It's the only way to open your eyes about things that are not talked about on forums. This is a once off thing. So I hope you learn something from this. Cheers.
Know what you trade
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