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Flying Dutchman

  • #2,561
  • Edited 7:40pm Aug 23, 2022 7:16pm | Edited 7:40pm
Quoting BWilliam
Let me continue this important mindset point. Traders don't realise how often they go into this state of "blindness" during their trading session. The reality is very often. Unless we become aware that we do become victims of this "blindness" state, we will continue to be unaware victims every trading day. This is every traders nemesis. To avoid becoming a victim of "blindness", we must be aware we do suffer this "blindness". We can only be aware if we journal our macro market analysis throughout our trading session. Review our real time...
The fake solution that we're taught to combat this "blindness" state is top down analysis approach, ie. higher tf.

This top down analysis approach is not the magic pill to cure this "blindness" state.

Do you know why we read intraday trading cannot be successful? Short term intraday trading is gambling? We have to trade longer term, larger tf to be profitable? Short tf is noise? Indicators lag? Market makers psychology manipulation? No one can predict the future market? Markets are random?

They were referring to this "blindness" state. This "blindness" state is more pronounce than you imagine.

If you are not aware, you can't do anything. Now that you're aware and you do nothing, you continue to be victims.

To test if you are a victim, make macro analysis of your 5 favourite pairs at the start of every trading session. Write down your analysis, continue to update your analysis throughout the trading session. Review your analysis at the end of the trading session. See if you were "blind", I'm certain you were at some point.

If you think you're above this "blindness" state, you're very wrong. Cheers

Ps The above series of posts about "blindness" is only about awareness. I'm merely scratching the surface.

Pps Volume scalpers have this advantage, they trade a specific market state, in out in a few seconds to few minutes.
Know what you trade
  • #2,562
  • Aug 23, 2022 7:40pm Aug 23, 2022 7:40pm
Hi All,

Firstly thanks to Bluesteele, Moodybot, Timetells, BWilliam, Ihlas and all other traders for their input. I have been part of different threads but this one has helped me quite a bit. Not that i am trading fulltime or always live trading. Still in the learning process. I find it difficult to understand the macro mechanics and all but atleast i am heading in the right direction. At times i have placed trades with good confluences but still failed. Example, there was round number, weekly, daily opens, PFH or PFL, Pin Bars, Double Pin Bars, Double or triple tops, etc. At times all these lined up yet i failed as price went in different direction. So bloody frustrating as i tell myself that it was so similar to trades/ charts shown by (Bluesteele or Timetells). I would say carbon copy at times but damn the price just shows all this and just reverses smashing through the stop loss. Hmm, why cos we were on the wrong side of macro analysis which BWilliam has mentioned a few times. Honestly i am not able to read it but from whatever i gather with my limited knowledge it is the bigger picture of what is happening as per larger timeframe. Probably 4hr or Daily. As Timetells says look at what the price is doing on the Daily and hourly before placing trades on 5 or 1 minute chart. BWilliam mentions looking at weekly opens and closes. Have read these but honestly still not able to grasp it. Still trying though. Bluesteele also mentioned so many times to look at RNs and Equity Opens. To be honest that has helped me like 70% of the time. Earlier this month i had placed two trades at London open with RN, PFH, Weekly and Daily Opens as confluences and it worked like a charm. Right to my take profit in no time. Bluesteele also commented that both were good trades. I thought well i am on my way. But like i stated above, exactly the same setup didn't work out the 3rd time. What i later realised was the target was on the upper side on the 4 hour chart with a rising market as per macro analysis and i was selling way too early. So even with all confluenses on one side the macro analysis still rules. Rising or Dropping market. That is what we need to know, for that we may have to look at the bigger picture. Alot to learn and even more care to be taken before a trade is placed. Sorry for the ramblings but just letting out a bit of my frustrations cos i am still quite far away from trading even part time. Few years spent but still little known.

Trade Well All.
  • #2,563
  • Aug 23, 2022 8:03pm Aug 23, 2022 8:03pm
Quoting whitesta
Hi All, Firstly thanks to Bluesteele, Moodybot, Timetells, BWilliam, Ihlas and all other traders for their input. I have been part of different threads but this one has helped me quite a bit. Not that i am trading fulltime or always live trading. Still in the learning process. I find it difficult to understand the macro mechanics and all but atleast i am heading in the right direction. At times i have placed trades with good confluences but still failed. Example, there was round number, weekly, daily opens, PFH or PFL, Pin Bars, Double Pin Bars,...
Hi whitesta, it's good to express your real state, where you're at right now. You're not alone. And I'm not surprise - I know from reading your posts.

Let's me try to help you move forward. If you're willing.

First off, the metrics you use is too complicated, all over the place. I warned many times about over complication.

Let's start with something simple. Dol.

As the trading day progresses, you make your macro analysis of today's real time market of your favourite pair, answer this one question and one question only,

The market will trade above or below dol?
(A simple answer - above or below or don't know)

Keep updating your answer in a continuous fashion throughout the trading day. It's important you do this real time exercise and write down your answers, starting now.
Know what you trade
  • #2,564
  • Aug 23, 2022 8:49pm Aug 23, 2022 8:49pm
Thanks for the reply BWilliam,

Honestly I checked GBP/YEN and have no idea whether it will be below or above day open. If i was to take a guess would say it would mostly stay below daily open. The trend on higher time frame suggests that. BUT its a just a Guess. Looking for ur input. Thanks again.
  • #2,565
  • Edited Aug 24, 2022 12:24am Aug 23, 2022 9:07pm | Edited Aug 24, 2022 12:24am
Quoting whitesta
Thanks for the reply BWilliam, Honestly I checked GBP/YEN and have no idea whether it will be below or above day open. If i was to take a guess would say it would mostly stay below daily open. The trend on higher time frame suggests that. BUT its a just a Guess. Looking for ur input. Thanks again.
Ok, the answer is GY - below.

There is no correct or wrong answer.
We are all guessing.

The point of this exercise is to record down your guess. Your guess is derived from what you see on the chart real time.

Right now, market trades 10pips below - 161.659.
Dol - 161.759, high 161.884, low 161.549, day range - 34pips, ADR20 - 179pips (19%)

Update your guess as the trading day progresses. Make sure you update if you change your answer, real time. You can write a brief summary of your analysis - at any time, real time.

I will respond to your post throughout today. I will write a summation of your guesses at London close. Cheers

Edit1 - I have subscribe to you to get notification.

Edit2 - anyone interested can participate.
Know what you trade
  • #2,566
  • Aug 23, 2022 10:02pm Aug 23, 2022 10:02pm
Quoting whitesta
Hi All, Firstly thanks to Bluesteele, Moodybot, Timetells, BWilliam, Ihlas and all other traders for their input. I have been part of different threads but this one has helped me quite a bit. Not that i am trading fulltime or always live trading. Still in the learning process. I find it difficult to understand the macro mechanics and all but atleast i am heading in the right direction. At times i have placed trades with good confluences but still failed. Example, there was round number, weekly, daily opens, PFH or PFL, Pin Bars, Double Pin Bars,...
I can guarantee that you're not alone.
I would hazard a guess that greater than 95% of the members who look in at this thread may well be in the same boat.
The one common denominator with those who have found a method that works is that they had various pieces of the jigsaw but couldn't get them to fit. Perseverance and not giving up, bloody mindedness or wont be beaten, each successful trader would have those attributes to make the jigsaw fit.
But the single greatest factor against............. is time.

At the moment we have amongst others BW, Kev and GEFX all participating in the thread, Pete has taken some time off.
Not going to get that level of experience or quality of posting anywhere else.
The thread also runs itself, apart from two I haven't really had to block anyone for disruption which allows the thread to flow and the narrative here is building and I to am benefiting greatly from reading the posts.... even from those who mention Fundies...
  • #2,567
  • Edited 10:58pm Aug 23, 2022 10:48pm | Edited 10:58pm
Interesting "thought" exercise.

I use the DOL more as an "equilibrium" point as opposed to a market direction indication.

There have been 16 full trading days so far this month. The GY has had 3 days in that period where price remained above/below the DOL after the first hour of the new day. Another 3 days where price made only a 1 or 2 (hourly) bar above/below the DOL. 2 of those three would have resulted in significant DD.

These are just observations from a quick look. Since I don't see the market through the same lens as BW, at this moment I can not make a determination of price direction from the DOL itself.

[I went almost 4 years of minimal chart time as I opted to work (a freaking lot) so I could quit the rat race. It's been about a month, and I have immersed myself into the charts as much as I can. This thread, along with its predecessor and Geroge Aus thread have led me to where I am now with my trading method. bluesteele (Kev)
was influential and also led me to doing a deep dive into Stacey Burke's method. I have adopted much of that method and am making it my own.

Are the probabilities as Burke states (no percentage has been given other than "these entries give high probability trades")? I will start to know after a 100 trades. I am thinking they may well be.]
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,568
  • Aug 23, 2022 11:13pm Aug 23, 2022 11:13pm
Quoting spzd
Interesting "thought" exercise. I use the DOL more as an "equilibrium" point as opposed to a market direction indication. There have been 16 full trading days so far this month. The GY has had 3 days in that period where price remained above/below the DOL after the first hour of the new day. Another 3 days where price made only a 1 or 2 (hourly) bar above/below the DOL. 2 of those three would have resulted in significant DD. These are just observations from a quick look. Since I don't see the market through the same lens as BW, at this moment I...
Excellent observation Spzd...I have sat for many a day backtesting things like that..and you will find they make a difference...and can reveal patterns !
The below is a scenario I have picked up from Tom Hougaard...an absolute trading stud beyond studs lol....

SCENARIO TRADING.... (copied from one of my previous posts)


So just a refresher on this Indice Pattern....

Friday trades closes below Thursday.
We want to be selling come Monday...Why ?

Over the course of a year 52 trading weeks comparing Thursday and Friday... 21 weeks Friday could not trade above Thursday.
Alright now stay with me. Out of those 21 weeks how many times did Monday trade lower than Friday?

Heres the results.. 20 out of 21 times Monday traded lower than Friday. Im sure most can do the division on these two numbers. Maybe im wrong but that seems like 95% to me. There is nothing random about a pattern that is 95% accurate.

There arepatterns in all markets, for charts are nothing but a picture of rational human thinking nothing more nothing less. And with rational human thinking comes predictability and patterns. These represent themselves onto the charts every minute of everyday san indicators.

All of which forms my wonderful friend George’s term “Psychology of the Market”.


Keep on plugging Spzd ..but I will tell you this... I am pretty certain you already know enough.... I will expand in a very near future post...

Cheers All
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #2,569
  • Aug 23, 2022 11:27pm Aug 23, 2022 11:27pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} Excellent observation Spzd...I have sat for many a day backtesting things like that..and you will find they make a difference...and can reveal patterns ! The below is a scenario I have picked up from Tom Hougaard...an absolute trading stud beyond studs lol.... SCENARIO TRADING.... (copied from one of my previous posts) So just a refresher on this Indice Pattern.... Friday trades closes below Thursday. We want to be selling come Monday...Why ? Over the course of a year 52 trading weeks comparing Thursday and Friday... 21 weeks Friday could...
That is a pattern I have not exploited yet.

Highs and lows along with the 3s and breaks in market structure are where my focus is. I like what Stacey Burke says about finding set-ups that are repeatable. Then use the compounding of scalability.

Edit: And don't trade on the inside unless it's an outside set-up.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,570
  • Edited Aug 24, 2022 1:12am Aug 23, 2022 11:46pm | Edited Aug 24, 2022 1:12am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Ok, the answer is GY - below. There is no correct or wrong answer. We are all guessing. The point of this exercise is to record down your guess. Your guess is derived from what you see on the chart real time. Right now, market trades 10pips below - 161.659. Dol - 161.759, high 161.884, low 161.549, day range - 34pips Update your guess as the trading day progresses. Make sure you update if you change your answer, real time. You can write a brief summary of your analysis - at any time, real time. I will respond to your post throughout today....
Thanks for the reply BWilliam, sorry for the late reply as i am mostly at work during the week days and try to reply or have a look at the chart whenever i get the chance. I had said that price was going to be below the DOL cos at the start of the day it spent more time below the DOL (I checked this on 5 minute chart). Now i feel it will still go further down maybe up to the 162.20 which is a target or 161.138 (another target) or maybe right up to RN 161. On the 4 hr chart the target it may go to is 160.785, if we are looking at the bigger picture. That is my observation thus far.
  • #2,571
  • Aug 24, 2022 12:09am Aug 24, 2022 12:09am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} I can guarantee that you're not alone. I would hazard a guess that greater than 95% of the members who look in at this thread may well be in the same boat. The one common denominator with those who have found a method that works is that they had various pieces of the jigsaw but couldn't get them to fit. Perseverance and not giving up, bloody mindedness or wont be beaten, each successful trader would have those attributes to make the jigsaw fit. But the single greatest factor against............. is time. At the moment we have amongst others...
Thanks Moodybot, Yes its really good to have these traders helping us see the market in a different way. For me personally it gives hope that it can be done.
  • #2,572
  • Edited 1:10am Aug 24, 2022 12:17am | Edited 1:10am
Quoting whitesta
Thanks for the reply BWilliam, sorry for the late reply as i am mostly at work during the week days and try to reply or have a look at the chart whenever i get the chance. I had said that price was gong to be below the DOL cos at the start of the day it spent more time below the DOL (I checked this on 5 minute chart). Now i feel it will still go further down maybe up to the 162.20 which is a target or 161.138 (another target) or maybe right up to RN 161. On the 4 hr chart the target it may go to is 160.785, if we are looking at the bigger...
Thanks whitesta for the update. Keep updating whenever you have the time. Till London close.

Right now, market trades 49pips below - 161.263.
Dol - 161.759, high 161.884, low 161.158, day range - 73pips, ADR20 - 179pips (40%)

Comment - the market is expected to expand beyond either day high or low or both for another 100pips(60%-ADR20).
Know what you trade
  • #2,573
  • Aug 24, 2022 1:47am Aug 24, 2022 1:47am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Thanks whitesta for the update. Keep updating whenever you have the time. Till London close. Right now, market trades 49pips below - 161.263. Dol - 161.759, high 161.884, low 161.158, day range - 73pips, ADR20 - 179pips (40%) Comment - the market is expected to expand beyond either day high or low or both for another 100pips(60%-ADR20).
Golden Nuggets BWilliam. i didn't really take notice of the ADRs. Thanks.
  • #2,574
  • Aug 24, 2022 3:14am Aug 24, 2022 3:14am
Quoting whitesta
Golden Nuggets BWilliam. i didn't really take notice of the ADRs. Thanks.
Right now, market trades 31pips below - 161.443. Dol - 161.759, high 161.884, low 161.158, day range - 73pips, ADR20 - 179pips (40%)

Comment - will this market expand to break day high or low or both or none?
Know what you trade
  • #2,575
  • Edited 6:31am Aug 24, 2022 3:55am | Edited 6:31am
Probably missed something important but why did price shoot up at that big green candle?
I see the wick reached down into shown level and took off. That level, although marked didn't register as important to me !

That big move up and down.......if you take 50% of that, you will see by the BIG arrow on the right, that price bounced off that for a nice long ( dim memory of ICT video on that) ?

Maybe something is sticking in my mind

Comment welcome.

A higher low and almost Double Bottom near BRN 13100 ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,576
  • Edited 6:34am Aug 24, 2022 4:20am | Edited 6:34am
Dax UK time.
Made a comment on rectangle consolidation that I would welcome comment on. ICT uses such consolidations but not sure I used it correctly - nearly stopped me out.

Edit: left out a few FVGaps since I was advised to do so unless around levels etc and price dips back in before moving on.

MoreEDIT: 12:20
Re....."Thought I had a long within that consolidation....?"
If I had looked I would have seen BRN 13100 just below a row of tails !!! Dax loves BRN's - the "tails" gave the fact away that something was afoot.. and I missed it. Mary Poppins claims to be "perfect in every way." A claim I cannot make
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,577
  • Aug 24, 2022 4:37am Aug 24, 2022 4:37am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Right now, market trades 31pips below - 161.443. Dol - 161.759, high 161.884, low 161.158, day range - 73pips, ADR20 - 179pips (40%) Comment - will this market expand to break day high or low or both or none?
The price has been below the DOL thus far. Early London session price came up to DOL and with rejection went down taking out targets on its way. Since it looked like a down day so far it has taken out the 161 RN. For me it was just a guess and now waiting for the real input from BWilliam.
  • #2,578
  • Aug 24, 2022 4:53am Aug 24, 2022 4:53am
Honestly - my last questions for the day

The cable chart. Have I missed something in my analysis. ( written on chart)
Order block - important or myth?
How do you locate it per ICT ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,579
  • Edited 5:42am Aug 24, 2022 5:13am | Edited 5:42am
Quoting whitesta
The price has been below the DOL thus far. Early London session price came up to DOL and with rejection went down taking out targets on its way. Since it looked like a down day so far it has taken out the 161 RN. For me it was just a guess and now waiting for the real input from BWilliam.
Here's my input although it's hindsight since the purpose is for you to make macro analysis in real time market.

Today's value intent is an extension of what I wrote yesterday - look for short trades. You are correct with your below dol analysis, and market mostly traded below dol. But I have to ask you these questions,

If your macro analysis told you that market will most likely drop value for today's trading, did you see the 2 short trade opportunities when market traded above dol, first during early Tokyo open and 2nd during early London market? If not why?

The next short trade opportunity happened about 2hrs ago with a pullback high of 161.522. Were you aware of this pullback short trade opportunity? If not why?

All 3 short trade opportunities were in line with your macro analysis that market trade lower below dol.

Look back at those moments that I point out, rewind your memory, why you did or did not think those were trading opportunities?

Last technical question, since you know the adr is 179pips and market traded lower, when did it occur to you that market will take out the early day low of 161.158 and trade below 161?

Read my series of posts above about "blindness", were you a victim? What's your emotion during those moments?

My questions are designed to make you think about what to think in real time market, or what most traders fail to think beyond their "macro analysis".

If possible, continue to post your macro analysis going into NY open, it's interesting and challenging with increasing volatility.

Btw you did great with your posts.

Right now, market trades 98pips below - 160.909. Dol - 161.759, high 161.884, low 160.832, day range - 106pips, ADR20 - 179pips (59%)
Know what you trade
  • #2,580
  • Aug 24, 2022 5:42am Aug 24, 2022 5:42am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Here's my input although it's hindsight since the purpose is for you to make macro analysis in real time market. Today's value intent is an extension of what I wrote yesterday - look for short trades. You are correct with your below dol analysis, and market mostly traded below dol. But I have to ask you these questions, If your macro analysis told you that market will most likely drop value for today's trading, did you see the 2 short trade opportunities when market traded above dol, first during early Tokyo market and 2nd during early London...
Hi BWilliam,

I did not really see the trade early Tokyo session. Now having a look back i feel that price was going up and down too often around DOL that time for me to take the trade. Maybe at that time i wasn't too sure of my analysis that price would trade below DOL. The early London Open trade i saw it and would have taken the trade for sure. For me price was at a RN, rejected DOL, PFH and Weekly Open line. These were the confluences and also that i felt that it was going to be a down day after the Asia session downward movement. Take profit would have been the targets on the way down. I will admit that i did not see the pullback which was near the RN 161.50. Yes i was blind not to see it. That being said to be honest i was not all too sure that it was going to be a down day early Asia session. I mean i have seen price toying around near the DOL at different sessions. So at the moment not confident in my analysis whether its going to be a day above or below DOL. Maybe thats why i was only seeing 1 trade out of 3. Just my input.
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