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  • #2,541
  • Aug 22, 2022 10:46pm Aug 22, 2022 10:46pm
Quoting BWilliam
*** for the umpteenth time, your trades are successful because you are correct with your macro analysis about future value intent. It's got nothing to do with volume or "PA".
Or the 7 moving averages RSI (Rat shit index) or Stochastics...lol.. funny how no matter the data ..real.or fake...results always the same ..thus the macro analysis and future intent are correct... absolutely zero to do with the indicators...

That's all.....
Markets are Mirrors,,Mastery of craft is mastery of self
  • #2,542
  • Aug 22, 2022 11:15pm Aug 22, 2022 11:15pm
Highlighted in Gold for those who are hard of hearing through too much volume!

Where does volume come into play?

For lower tf entry purpose at the expected "turn" price level.

Or you can use traditional "PA".

Chose one that you're comfortable with.

After your 100th trade, you don't need this volume crutch.
Throw it into the rubbish bin.
You don't want to keep, collect useless rubbish.
Another one bite the dust.

Cheers

*** remember, don't trade for scraps 50 times a day, that's stupid thinking. Trade the meat once a day, that's all you want. There are 28 currency pairs, find ONE. Wtf you have to restrict your trading to cryptos on some dodgy crypto exchange only?

*** for the umpteenth time, your trades are successful because you are correct with your macro analysis about future value intent.

It's got nothing to do with volume or "PA".
  • #2,543
  • Aug 23, 2022 12:25am Aug 23, 2022 12:25am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quick example of trading OUTSIDE from the INSIDE....
as well as using 5M bars as Add ons in a quick moving market.

PFH.. 1M M/DT at TIMING .. GAP TIME HIGH SAME AS OIL SETUP

WHERES THE $$$ ?? Again same old same old setup... although on a small scale...where does price go?
Swing Lows...TARGETS TARGETS TARGETS.....

You dont need alot of pips to make big returns.. This is a prime example of how you do it.
Some hate Hindsight charts lol...but thats how we learn... By analyzing past price then
trading what we see and learn in the present... But then again I could post a chart right now that
by the time I write this post is a hindsight chart....
(look where price is now on the chart im posting)

anyways heres GC chart and posting again oil chart showing same GAP TIME high importance.

All the best to all even the Punters

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Markets are Mirrors,,Mastery of craft is mastery of self
  • #2,544
  • Aug 23, 2022 2:42am Aug 23, 2022 2:42am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Hi BWilliam, I've been selling this pair for some time now. Is it time to place a speculative buy order? Hope you are well! {image}
4hr green zone profit taking for shorters. Yesterday a bit premature for a buy it seems. News day today why not they spike it?

Where will they take it that bewilders the average joe retail? They took out the previous low by 50 pips.

Cheers..
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  • #2,545
  • Edited 3:44am Aug 23, 2022 3:27am | Edited 3:44am
Quoting FocusWinReal
4hr green zone profit taking for shorters. Yesterday a bit premature for a buy it seems. News day today why not they spike it? Where will they take it that bewilders the average joe retail? They took out the previous low by 50 pips. Cheers.. {image}
Hi FocusWinReal, e$ trades weak with the high of 0.9960 - nothing exciting about this pair.

Edit - look for short trades EY or GY, dax.
Know what you trade
  • #2,546
  • Aug 23, 2022 3:53am Aug 23, 2022 3:53am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi FocusWinReal, e$ trades weak with the high of 0.9960 - nothing exciting about this pair. Edit - look for short trades EY or GY, dax.
Hi BW,
That's the S1 weekly and monthly confluence as well. I am not buying or shorting, just what I see.

Cheers.
  • #2,547
  • Aug 23, 2022 4:50am Aug 23, 2022 4:50am
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} SPOT FRICKING ON....BW Heres my Oil trades from this morning... Could have I had better entries yep...Sometimes I nail them othertimes I dont... Point is im buying BELOW a number/level/price ALWAYS... Thats the line in the sand... Scalping for a few pips or points is a tough gig with the costs incurred let alone time and skewed RR. Its why "some" go into heavy drawdown wink wink..... The real money in trading is in SCALEABLE SETUPS...that you can add size too. Now this oil setup for me produced huge pips and a very healthy % gain...
I can understand the 8700 level and it chimes with ICT talking about fakeout of previous high and grabbing liquidity before turning down/up but was there a particular candle ( No FVG I could see) that got you in or simply the expectation that you were at a "grab liquidity" area? 4 hour candles seem key to analysis.
New York 90500 - another ICT type liquidity type grab sucking in the misguided before turning on them by going in the opposite direction ( short)?
What is your oil execution trigger trade time - 15 minute bar? 5 or 1 minute bar?
What are the vertical grey shaded areas ( ICT type "kill zones" or something else.?)
Rather than write detailed replies I would be happy if you simply referred me to any post and I can read from there. I am aware of the time you spend on replies and do not wish to burden you with too much writing when referral to a pertinent post will suffice.
I have read your reply and did a quick response to same. I will now print off your charts and pore over them with my trusty pencil.
I should add that I am ploughing through ICT videos ( blasted adverts) - then I discovered this thread and landed myself with a lot of study material but it seems sections from each coincide even if different labels are used.
Yesterday was amazing with oil - I learnt quickly that FVG's are nothing without context and that patience is key in that I should wait for price to go to a level or area where concepts such as FVG and "liquidity grab" mean something.
Lots of studying to do so all please forgive any glaring errors.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,548
  • Aug 23, 2022 4:54am Aug 23, 2022 4:54am
Quoting bluesteele
{image}{image} Quick example of trading OUTSIDE from the INSIDE.... as well as using 5M bars as Add ons in a quick moving market. PFH.. 1M M/DT at TIMING .. GAP TIME HIGH SAME AS OIL SETUP WHERES THE $$$ ?? Again same old same old setup... although on a small scale...where does price go? Swing Lows...TARGETS TARGETS TARGETS..... You dont need alot of pips to make big returns.. This is a prime example of how you do it. Some hate Hindsight charts lol...but thats how we learn... By analyzing past price then trading what we see and learn in the present......
Ye gods - more weekend reading and pencil marking Turnip. Thought I saw some 3 bar reversals at that short area per ICT ?
Wish I found you guys years ago !
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,549
  • Aug 23, 2022 5:55am Aug 23, 2022 5:55am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Ye gods - more weekend reading and pencil marking Turnip. Thought I saw some 3 bar reversals at that short area per ICT ? Wish I found you guys years ago !
The knowledge expressed here by the guys is second to none

I’m just watching from the sidelines.

My own level of knowledge isn’t on a par with Kev Pete Jason GEFx and others, and I’m not too proud to admit it.

Listen, watch and keep an open mind.

I bet each one of them has, at some point, looked elsewhere for guidance and eventually through sheer bloody mindedness have worked out a method that works for them.

No two traders trade exactly the same and not one method fits all.

The current run of posts have been the best that I have ever seen on FF and I would like to thank those that have taken the time to contribute and I hope that they continue to do so when time permits.

Andy
  • #2,550
  • Aug 23, 2022 6:14am Aug 23, 2022 6:14am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} The knowledge expressed here by the guys is second to none I’m just watching from the sidelines. My own level of knowledge isn’t on a par with Kev Pete Jason GEFx and others, and I’m not too proud to admit it. Listen, watch and keep an open mind. I bet each one of them has, at some point, looked elsewhere for guidance and eventually through sheer bloody mindedness have worked out a method that works for them. No two traders trade exactly the same and not one method fits all. The current run of posts have been the best that...
Agreed. This site is a gold mine of advice for those willing to study. A big thank you to those willing to share their knowledge.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,551
  • Aug 23, 2022 8:28am Aug 23, 2022 8:28am
Quoting BWilliam
About losing trades, although mindset plays a key role we stiil need a more direct and pragmatic approach to this common problem that plagued all traders. A large part of my research work was to address losing trades. How to improve the losers? It will take a long explanation. So this is a simplified shortlist - 1. Follow a trade entry protocol after you get the trade signal. Check all the boxes. 2. Quantify the "distance" where a losing trade becomes a failed trade. 3. Since the fail distance is predetermined, place a stop slightly above this level...
Hi BWilliam, I would like to add my thoughts on this, personally its the mindset that will improve your losing trades.

Nothing wrong with research at all, its at the core of ones game as well. MINDSET is number one though, its the center. In question with this post is Losing trades but in fact applies to all of trading, you need to have your MINDSET in check. 1-18 does not happen without mental toughness.

If your putting research before or above mindset then what happens when the research you laid out starts to change, or you start to question it, think twice, have fear, or the bitch voice in your head starts telling you to go sell when your research is telling you to buy. We know it happens, you will fail, time after time after time because you have not developed the right mindset to control the situation, in this case losing trades and why MINDSET comes first.

Research is in the list, in order to do that research and develop your game around that research and stick to it during rough times, and to have the ability to identify when you need to adjust/modify or adapt is all about the mindset. If you dont build the mindset, the research does nothing and the market will kick the shit out of you.

Mindset - your mental toughness is the most important part of you as a trader/investor.

I'll add something I created that can be used with any view you want, place whatever you would like in the middle, then build around it and create your CORE on what you think makes up you and your trading. As you see, mine starts with MINDSET.

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Stay Strong and Stay Protected

Great trading week to all!
Swing the AXE..HARD w/ Effort, Consistency and Patience
  • #2,552
  • Edited 11:20am Aug 23, 2022 10:12am | Edited 11:20am
Quoting HTG
{quote} Hi BWilliam, I would like to add my thoughts on this, personally its the mindset that will improve your losing trades. Nothing wrong with research at all, its at the core of ones game as well. MINDSET is number one though, its the center. In question with this post is Losing trades but in fact applies to all of trading, you need to have your MINDSET in check. 1-18 does not happen without mental toughness. If your putting research before or above mindset then what happens when the research you laid out starts to change, or you start to question...
Hi HTG, I understand your point of view. No doubt mental toughness is an important requirement. Mental toughness as in handling extreme fear, able to keep faith with what the research told us, and execute to the letter what's expected of us.

However, strong mindset, keep unwavering faith and discipline must have a metrics to focus on, that we derive from our research work. This can't be a vacumn.

Example, if we know the market will not close above dol, then the need for mental toughness and discipline is more natural. We do it because we want to get to the money - that's not difficult for traders.

Whereas, if we don't have this metrics that the market will close below dol, then what do we focus our mental toughness and discipline on?

I discovered this "ignorance" vacumn that's the source of mindset problems during my research work. And everything else thereon. Solve the source problem, don't treat the symptoms.

That's my point. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #2,553
  • Edited 11:15am Aug 23, 2022 10:23am | Edited 11:15am
Quoting BWilliam
Hi FocusWinReal, e$ trades weak with the high of 0.9960 - nothing exciting about this pair. Edit - look for short trades EY or GY, dax.
Here's the weird stuff that confounds traders.

E$ and G$ traded weak during London session.
EY and GY traded strong during London session.
Align the charts, they move opposite direction.

NY session, E$ and G$ trades strong.
NY session, EY and GY trades weak.
Again, they move opposite direction.

How come?
Did you foresee this?

What's more weird is I told in early London session to look for short trades - EY, GY, dax. As always I was talking about the future that has not happened yet.

Short trade the strong rising Y pairs during London session??? Are you mad?
Why not short trade the weak $ pairs in London session?

This is counter-intuitive, isn't it?

Fear gets heightened.
Doubts set in.
As you watch the live market unfold. Painting day highs and lows, you hesitated, doubt, brush it aside, did nothing.

Such gooblydegook market analysis confounds many traders. This is the real problem with any form of directional speculation, including Forex trading.

The point is, do you really know how this market will trade in the future?
Do you really understand market structure?
Do you really know value intent?
Do your favourite indicators tell you the correct future direction?
Have you realised the shortcomings of traditional technical analysis?
Do you have a mindset problem or are you simply blind?
Isn't the problem an "ignorance" vacumn?

You can't mentally prepare for the battle ahead if you don't know what lies ahead.

Another day of golden trading opportunities pass by.

Think deep about what I wrote on this thread. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #2,554
  • Aug 23, 2022 11:10am Aug 23, 2022 11:10am
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Markets are Mirrors,,Mastery of craft is mastery of self
  • #2,555
  • Aug 23, 2022 11:18am Aug 23, 2022 11:18am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Here's the weird stuff that confounds traders. E$ and G$ traded weak during London session. EY and GY traded strong during London session. Align the charts, they move opposite direction. NY session, E$ and G$ trades strong. NY session, EY and GY trades weak. Again, they move opposite direction. How come? Did you foresee this? What's more weird is I told in early London session to look for short trade - EY, GY, dax. As always I was talking about the future that has not happened yet. Short trade with strong rising pairs during London session???...
Hi BWilliam, I'm not sure if your questions are rhetorical or are a call for discussion. I'll assume it's a call for discussion. As you have stated, daily analysis must include an overlay of potential risks, such as scheduled FAs. The FAs in the London session are potential drivers of PA, and FAs in the NY session are potential drivers that can reverse or support the moves seen during the London session. You can't know how the market will trade in the future if there are FAs on the timeline. Case in point: the FA's during the London session today were supportive of PA since last Friday, but the NY FA reversed that sentiment. So, market analysis from last night should have included the possibility that the London FA's would be disruptive to PA trends, plus the assumption that the NY FAs would be disruptive. You manage trades and market exposure based on your analysis that must include the risks associated with FAs. And only trade when this picture is clear to you. Yesterday I squared up all my trades and was flat this morning, but had I been in the market today, I'd have been defensive all morning, especially before the NY FAs. Now that the dust has settled, I am back in the market with trades. Not sure what other questions will arise from this, so I'll stop here to see where this goes, if anywhere. Good trading to everyone!
  • #2,556
  • Aug 23, 2022 11:40am Aug 23, 2022 11:40am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Hi BWilliam, I'm not sure if your questions are rhetorical or are a call for discussion. I'll assume it's a call for discussion. As you have stated, daily analysis must include an overlay of potential risks, such as scheduled FAs. The FAs in the London session are potential drivers of PA, and FAs in the NY session are potential drivers that can reverse or support the moves seen during the London session. You can't know how the market will trade in the future if there are FAs on the timeline. Case in point: the FA's during the London session...
HI GEfx, I was asking for a discussion.

Central to this trading process is our mindset.

The strength of our mindset is relative to what we know, and what we know depends on whether the market trades in line with our normal market analysis expectations. If market trades outside this normal market analysis expectations we become "blind". And we feel uncomfortable with such a day.

That's why on a normal predictable day where market trades within our analysis expectation, we feel confident, sure and prepared - a good feel.

Whereas on days when market trade inverse of our normal market analysis expectation we struggle with a bad day - our mindset goes haywire.

We can conclude that when market trade outside of our market analysis expectation, that is counter-intuitive, our mindset gets jumble up by this "blindness". Vice versa.

Therefore, central to our trading problem is not mindset which is a resultant outcome, it's our biased market analysis expectation that's causing us this secondary mindset problem.
Know what you trade
  • #2,557
  • Aug 23, 2022 11:58am Aug 23, 2022 11:58am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} HI GEfx, I was asking for a discussion. Central to this trading process is our mindset. The strength of our mindset is relative to what we know, and what we know depends on whether the market trades in line with our normal market analysis expectations. If market trades outside this normal market analysis expectations we become "blind". That's why on a normal predictable day where market trades within our analysis expectation, we feel confident and sure - a good feel. Whereas on days when market trade inverse of our normal market analysis...
Ok that makes sense. I suggest everyone expand their daily work to include an analysis of a market reversal from current trends and PA. As you point out, if your mindset includes the possibility of something "going wrong", then you will be better prepared to absorb market turmoil as it unfolds. The more prepared you are, the less blind you will be. For example, the NY FAs today reversed PA, but the reaction fit into my analysis. Once PA settled down (post hair-on-fire reaction to the FAs), it was clear that PA was trying to settle around pre-determined target, and that opened my trading opportunities. But to anyone who is blind, your best decision is to turn off your trading station and start your day over again. Don't make a move until you see it.
  • #2,558
  • Aug 23, 2022 12:13pm Aug 23, 2022 12:13pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} E$ and G$ traded weak during London session. EY and GY traded strong during London session. Align the charts, they move opposite direction. NY session, E$ and G$ trades strong. NY session, EY and GY trades weak. Again, they move opposite direction. How come? Did you foresee this?
BTW, I have a back-of-the-envelope way to "guess" the moves on the EY and GY relative to the E$, G$, and $y. The ADR on the E$ is 93, on the G$ it is 121, and on the $Y it is 162. So the yen is moving more than the Euro and the Pound. If the yen is moving proportionally more than the other two pairs, then as the Euro and Pound move, the yen is moving more (again, back-of-the-envelope stuff here). Therefore, a market move will favor the yen on the EY and the GY. This becomes less reliable as the ADRs get closer to one another.
  • #2,559
  • Aug 23, 2022 1:34pm Aug 23, 2022 1:34pm
My attempt at Nasdaq analysis.
4 hour; 1 hour; 15min; 5 minute and one minute for execution.

Action seemed sideways from higher time frame.
4 hour lows seemed key for other time frames and trading.
saw BRN's that seemed relevant to analysis ?

Critique welcome especially on FVG's. I think these are only useful near levels and BRN; and fake out liquidity grabs ( Past high taken out - retail assume break long - wrong decision because price dives short hunting a previous lower level ?

This is a post trading chart - hindsight and not traded.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,560
  • Aug 23, 2022 6:35pm Aug 23, 2022 6:35pm
Quoting BWilliam
HI GEfx, I was asking for a discussion. Central to this trading process is our mindset. The strength of our mindset is relative to what we know, and what we know depends on whether the market trades in line with our normal market analysis expectations. If market trades outside this normal market analysis expectations we become "blind". And we feel uncomfortable with such a day. That's why on a normal predictable day where market trades within our analysis expectation, we feel confident, sure and prepared - a good feel. Whereas on days when...
Let me continue this important mindset point.

Traders don't realise how often they go into this state of "blindness" during their trading session. The reality is very often.

Unless we become aware that we do become victims of this "blindness" state, we will continue to be unaware victims every trading day. This is every traders nemesis.

To avoid becoming a victim of "blindness", we must be aware we do suffer this "blindness". We can only be aware if we journal our macro market analysis throughout our trading session. Review our real time analysis after the market unfolds itself at the end of the trading day.

Quoting BWilliam
It's important to keep a journal of your real time macro analysis. Journal your macro analysis with or without trade, not your trades. (Have anyone figured out why your real time macro analysis is more important than your real trades?)
Find out how many times you were wrong with your analysis. Follow this up analysing why you were wrong. Then figure out how to realise you are wrong in real time market. Last, how to prevent yourself from wrong analysis.

The above para is very important - the most important post on this forum. If you don't go through this correction you continue to be victim of this "blindness". This is the real mindset problem that plague every trader. This "blindness" mindset problem is bigger than how fear affect traders. Cheers
Know what you trade
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