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EURUSD only

  • #154,901
  • Edited 5:18am Aug 20, 2022 3:01am | Edited 5:18am
Quoting MarvOli
{quote} It would take me hours to explain them all. But I can give a few: 1. US government debt- Issued at ~2%. They didn't expect the bond market to sell off so much. Maybe they expected 2.5% or 2.75%? So they factor that in when issuing debt. Now, new debt is issued at 2.9%+. If feds continue to raise rates, then those rates continue higher. Now, they cannot afford to service the debt. Printing more money = dilution. 2. The US is a large exporter of goods. ~$1.5+ trillion per year. A stronger USD creates less demand for US goods. Increase rates...
Regarding point 3, the FED is the leader, other countries are followers, not the other way around. Regarding point 4, you mix up the FED and the US government. The latter is not concerned with inflation from a budget point of view, the former actually is, because they want to deliver on their mandate. Actually even Biden is concerned with inflation as it risks the reelection of his party. All other arguments are very long term. For sure the USD is highly overvalued right now but it might well get much more overvalued before turning. In the short term we have Europe‘s trade balance collapsing. We have a ECB which cannot act as hawkish as it is supposed to because Putin imposes a recession on Germany and maybe on Italy. And we even face breakup risks with Italien yields ready to blow out and the ECB potentially impotent against it.
Another day, another dollar.
  • #154,902
  • Aug 20, 2022 3:15am Aug 20, 2022 3:15am
Quoting nic9man
{quote} Regarding point 3, the FED is the leader, other countries are followers, not the other way around. Regarding point 4, you mix up the FED and the US government. The latter is not concerned with inflation from a budget point of view, the former actually is, because they want to deliver on their mandate. Actually even Biden is concerned with inflation as it risks the reelection of his party. All other arguments are very long term. For sure the USD is highly overvalued right now but it might well get much more overvalued before turning. In the...
The dollar is actually undervalued still.
  • #154,903
  • Aug 20, 2022 4:06am Aug 20, 2022 4:06am
Quoting andvk74
{quote} {image}
What's the two charts at right side?
  • #154,904
  • Aug 20, 2022 5:15am Aug 20, 2022 5:15am
Quoting investing101
{quote} The dollar is actually undervalued still.
By which measure?
Actually most currencies of the G10 space have fluctuated around their purchasing power parity in the long term. The most comprehensive PPP is computed by the OECD. This shows a fair value above 1.40 for EURUSD. Right now we are at a record deviation of EURUSD from this PPP and we are in the longest deviation phase without touching the PPP since the inception of the euro. Normally it returned to the PPP every three years approximately. Keep in mind that the PPP was around 1 when the euro was introduced and mostly increased ever since as US inflation outpaced euro inflation.
Another day, another dollar.
  • #154,905
  • Aug 20, 2022 6:23am Aug 20, 2022 6:23am
In the EU demand zone, DXY has not yet reached the supply zone. In my experience this is an important tip. Have a good rest on the weekend.

See you on Monday.
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Swing Trader
  • #154,906
  • Aug 20, 2022 6:55am Aug 20, 2022 6:55am
Prelim GDP Q/Q forecast is -0.8%. If this is to be true on Thursday, is now America officially in a recession?
  • #154,907
  • Aug 20, 2022 7:16am Aug 20, 2022 7:16am
Quoting nic9man
{quote} Regarding point 3, the FED is the leader, other countries are followers, not the other way around. Regarding point 4, you mix up the FED and the US government. The latter is not concerned with inflation from a budget point of view, the former actually is, because they want to deliver on their mandate. Actually even Biden is concerned with inflation as it risks the reelection of his party. All other arguments are very long term. For sure the USD is highly overvalued right now but it might well get much more overvalued before turning. In the...
I do agree with you. Lately there has been less and less action during London session and more and more during New York session. I do not trade until New York open anymore, because the price just seems to be ranging until New York open and this is where the most money is lost due to false buy and sell signals.
  • #154,908
  • Edited 8:20am Aug 20, 2022 7:21am | Edited 8:20am
My plan for Monday.

If the price falls below parity and then returns to parity level I will trigger buy order with SL of 50 pips and TP of 50 pips. I will post the trade here so as not to violate forum rules. See you on Monday!
  • #154,909
  • Aug 20, 2022 1:12pm Aug 20, 2022 1:12pm
Quoting nic9man
{quote} By which measure? Actually most currencies of the G10 space have fluctuated around their purchasing power parity in the long term. The most comprehensive PPP is computed by the OECD. This shows a fair value above 1.40 for EURUSD. Right now we are at a record deviation of EURUSD from this PPP and we are in the longest deviation phase without touching the PPP since the inception of the euro. Normally it returned to the PPP every three years approximately. Keep in mind that the PPP was around 1 when the euro was introduced and mostly increased...
1.40 fair value = smoking crack

I like Danske's and ING's model due to several economic factors Europe is and will face later this year. Europe's slow reaction to raising interest rates, unlike the US, and lack thereof was a bad decision.
  • #154,910
  • Aug 21, 2022 8:19am Aug 21, 2022 8:19am
dangit. i have no idea, go more ??
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  • #154,911
  • Aug 21, 2022 2:03pm Aug 21, 2022 2:03pm
Quoting nic9man
{quote} By which measure? Actually most currencies of the G10 space have fluctuated around their purchasing power parity in the long term. The most comprehensive PPP is computed by the OECD. This shows a fair value above 1.40 for EURUSD. Right now we are at a record deviation of EURUSD from this PPP and we are in the longest deviation phase without touching the PPP since the inception of the euro. Normally it returned to the PPP every three years approximately. Keep in mind that the PPP was around 1 when the euro was introduced and mostly increased...
The euro was introduced to world financial markets as an accounting currency on 1 January 1999, replacing the former European Currency Unit (ECU) at a ratio of 1:1.
The initial rate of EUR/USD was 1.1743. Meaning EUR is now in a really, really deep s**t.
Hence there is little to no ground to say that "USD is still undervalued". It can be an emotion most US guys feel about their currency, but really, that'll be all to it.
  • #154,912
  • Aug 21, 2022 2:38pm Aug 21, 2022 2:38pm
Quoting yvestrcz
{quote} The euro was introduced to world financial markets as an accounting currency on 1 January 1999, replacing the former European Currency Unit (ECU) at a ratio of 1:1. The initial rate of EUR/USD was 1.1743. Meaning EUR is now in a really, really deep s**t. Hence there is little to no ground to say that "USD is still undervalued". It can be an emotion most US guys feel about their currency, but really, that'll be all to it.
Exactly, especially since US inflation has consistently outpaced EU inflation most of the time since inception of the euro.
Another day, another dollar.
  • #154,913
  • Aug 21, 2022 3:14pm Aug 21, 2022 3:14pm
Eurusd just hit my Daily bullish order block
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Going down lower timeframe for extra confluence I see a falling wedge and divergence which are pretty good signs. Will wait for price the channel and look for a trade
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"Cut your loses short and let the winners Run"
  • #154,914
  • Aug 21, 2022 5:49pm Aug 21, 2022 5:49pm
God will bless you so much, I just learnt ob today when I saw your post despite that I have been studying it so pls dont stop posting
  • #154,915
  • Aug 21, 2022 5:56pm Aug 21, 2022 5:56pm
Quoting Enagy
God will bless you so much, I just learnt ob today when I saw your post despite that I have been studying it so pls dont stop posting
Anytime hey
"Cut your loses short and let the winners Run"
  • #154,916
  • Aug 21, 2022 11:47pm Aug 21, 2022 11:47pm
Preparing for a new week.

My direction on EURUSD has not changed. I'll continue to long whenever price hits my support level.
I'm spreading them out when adding new trades.

Here're my rationale for going long:

  1. ECB/Fed interest rate differential narrowing in six months
  2. Yields spread flattening on US side. In fact, inverted curve has already shown on one such indicator
  3. The very fact that QT has not started is concerning

I know there's been "gloomy" talks on European side, on some macro and geopolitical front.
I don't trade based on politics, i.e. it doesn't concern me if some leaders say something, or someone threaten to do something. I don't get involve in those debate.
Likewise, I don't trade based on macroeconomic data. I use the volatility from data releases to exit my trades.

On technical side, it looks like the final phase (Phase E) of Wyckoff distribution on EURUSD has completed.
I'm not going to speculate where the price will go this week, until a new trend formation is confirmed.
To the upside, price needs to clear levels 1.007, 1.012, 1.016 before 1.02.

Cheers,
Cat

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  • #154,917
  • Edited 3:23am Aug 22, 2022 12:52am | Edited 3:23am
Good day. EURUSD recovered the fall from Asia after Fridays close and now is consolidating below 1.0047. Vol is 68 pips.

Quoting Js3mwtRc
Good day. EURUSD recovered the fall from Asia after Fridays close and now is consolidating below 1.0047. Vol is 68 pips. {image}
1.0034 now is where we should see, more upside, or downside, don't forget we are near parity again and a break opens the road to 0.9953. Fundamentals are not good, but the psycological level of 1.0000 offers some support to the bulls that should take an advantage here.
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Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #154,918
  • Aug 22, 2022 2:02am Aug 22, 2022 2:02am
watching for 9979 and 9939 supports test and react!
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #154,919
  • Edited 2:21am Aug 22, 2022 2:04am | Edited 2:21am
And
Head and Shoulders
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  • #154,920
  • Aug 22, 2022 2:22am Aug 22, 2022 2:22am
A new small trend created. If, you connect 1.0096 Fridays high European session high and todays Asian high at 1.0047 you will see what I mean. That and 1.0034 decision point are holding the trend down now. Next nearest target could be 1.0008.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
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