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EURUSD only

EURUSD drop from 1.0369 may stop to rest at the lower demand area, for a test of 1.0203 below the monthly pivot level. My attention will be at the red trendline, but the newly (grey) didn't formed yet, only a new lower low will make it count, but its interesting to look at price action if, it moves around.

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Feels right this time!
just sitting idle to see charts at random ! yearly already great disaster started , and greatest likely ahead by this year end ! wish not any yet market seems merciless ! yesterday close 0038 not any hope to brings with , bear strongly remain present though only little hope may withstand tanking limited to 23 yrs low, though already 21 yrs low running and so may support 9951 next week to month end at least only about 80 pips left while year may to limit by 8825 only about 1806 pips for months to year play while yearly close may try compete 1.0200 !! wish a rescue may come forward and no greatest disaster so soon , posing inevitable.
so step by step we to deal with , first 9951 having limit up 0122 . if hold to play few weeks or not !!if success this month then a correction likely logical next signal up breaks 0122 and if falls then this month may to react next at 9804 areas to 9513,
take care
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Not understand?never follow my analyses!
Quoting MarvOli
{quote} It would take me hours to explain them all. But I can give a few: 1. US government debt- Issued at ~2%. They didn't expect the bond market to sell off so much. Maybe they expected 2.5% or 2.75%? So they factor that in when issuing debt. Now, new debt is issued at 2.9%+. If feds continue to raise rates, then those rates continue higher. Now, they cannot afford to service the debt. Printing more money = dilution. 2. The US is a large exporter of goods. ~$1.5+ trillion per year. A stronger USD creates less demand for US goods. Increase rates...
Regarding point 3, the FED is the leader, other countries are followers, not the other way around. Regarding point 4, you mix up the FED and the US government. The latter is not concerned with inflation from a budget point of view, the former actually is, because they want to deliver on their mandate. Actually even Biden is concerned with inflation as it risks the reelection of his party. All other arguments are very long term. For sure the USD is highly overvalued right now but it might well get much more overvalued before turning. In the short term we have Europe‘s trade balance collapsing. We have a ECB which cannot act as hawkish as it is supposed to because Putin imposes a recession on Germany and maybe on Italy. And we even face breakup risks with Italien yields ready to blow out and the ECB potentially impotent against it.
Another day, another dollar.
Quoting nic9man
{quote} Regarding point 3, the FED is the leader, other countries are followers, not the other way around. Regarding point 4, you mix up the FED and the US government. The latter is not concerned with inflation from a budget point of view, the former actually is, because they want to deliver on their mandate. Actually even Biden is concerned with inflation as it risks the reelection of his party. All other arguments are very long term. For sure the USD is highly overvalued right now but it might well get much more overvalued before turning. In the...
The dollar is actually undervalued still.
Quoting andvk74
{quote} {image}
What's the two charts at right side?
Quoting investing101
{quote} The dollar is actually undervalued still.
By which measure?
Actually most currencies of the G10 space have fluctuated around their purchasing power parity in the long term. The most comprehensive PPP is computed by the OECD. This shows a fair value above 1.40 for EURUSD. Right now we are at a record deviation of EURUSD from this PPP and we are in the longest deviation phase without touching the PPP since the inception of the euro. Normally it returned to the PPP every three years approximately. Keep in mind that the PPP was around 1 when the euro was introduced and mostly increased ever since as US inflation outpaced euro inflation.
Another day, another dollar.
In the EU demand zone, DXY has not yet reached the supply zone. In my experience this is an important tip. Have a good rest on the weekend.

See you on Monday.
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traders helps traders
Prelim GDP Q/Q forecast is -0.8%. If this is to be true on Thursday, is now America officially in a recession?
Quoting nic9man
{quote} Regarding point 3, the FED is the leader, other countries are followers, not the other way around. Regarding point 4, you mix up the FED and the US government. The latter is not concerned with inflation from a budget point of view, the former actually is, because they want to deliver on their mandate. Actually even Biden is concerned with inflation as it risks the reelection of his party. All other arguments are very long term. For sure the USD is highly overvalued right now but it might well get much more overvalued before turning. In the...
I do agree with you. Lately there has been less and less action during London session and more and more during New York session. I do not trade until New York open anymore, because the price just seems to be ranging until New York open and this is where the most money is lost due to false buy and sell signals.
My plan for Monday.

If the price falls below parity and then returns to parity level I will trigger buy order with SL of 50 pips and TP of 50 pips. I will post the trade here so as not to violate forum rules. See you on Monday!
Quoting nic9man
{quote} By which measure? Actually most currencies of the G10 space have fluctuated around their purchasing power parity in the long term. The most comprehensive PPP is computed by the OECD. This shows a fair value above 1.40 for EURUSD. Right now we are at a record deviation of EURUSD from this PPP and we are in the longest deviation phase without touching the PPP since the inception of the euro. Normally it returned to the PPP every three years approximately. Keep in mind that the PPP was around 1 when the euro was introduced and mostly increased...
1.40 fair value = smoking crack

I like Danske's and ING's model due to several economic factors Europe is and will face later this year. Europe's slow reaction to raising interest rates, unlike the US, and lack thereof was a bad decision.
dangit. i have no idea, go more ??
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Quoting nic9man
{quote} By which measure? Actually most currencies of the G10 space have fluctuated around their purchasing power parity in the long term. The most comprehensive PPP is computed by the OECD. This shows a fair value above 1.40 for EURUSD. Right now we are at a record deviation of EURUSD from this PPP and we are in the longest deviation phase without touching the PPP since the inception of the euro. Normally it returned to the PPP every three years approximately. Keep in mind that the PPP was around 1 when the euro was introduced and mostly increased...
The euro was introduced to world financial markets as an accounting currency on 1 January 1999, replacing the former European Currency Unit (ECU) at a ratio of 1:1.
The initial rate of EUR/USD was 1.1743. Meaning EUR is now in a really, really deep s**t.
Hence there is little to no ground to say that "USD is still undervalued". It can be an emotion most US guys feel about their currency, but really, that'll be all to it.
Quoting yvestrcz
{quote} The euro was introduced to world financial markets as an accounting currency on 1 January 1999, replacing the former European Currency Unit (ECU) at a ratio of 1:1. The initial rate of EUR/USD was 1.1743. Meaning EUR is now in a really, really deep s**t. Hence there is little to no ground to say that "USD is still undervalued". It can be an emotion most US guys feel about their currency, but really, that'll be all to it.
Exactly, especially since US inflation has consistently outpaced EU inflation most of the time since inception of the euro.
Another day, another dollar.
Eurusd just hit my Daily bullish order block
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Going down lower timeframe for extra confluence I see a falling wedge and divergence which are pretty good signs. Will wait for price the channel and look for a trade
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"Cut your loses short and let the winners Run"
God will bless you so much, I just learnt ob today when I saw your post despite that I have been studying it so pls dont stop posting
Quoting Enagy
God will bless you so much, I just learnt ob today when I saw your post despite that I have been studying it so pls dont stop posting
Anytime hey
"Cut your loses short and let the winners Run"
Preparing for a new week.

My direction on EURUSD has not changed. I'll continue to long whenever price hits my support level.
I'm spreading them out when adding new trades.

Here're my rationale for going long:

  1. ECB/Fed interest rate differential narrowing in six months
  2. Yields spread flattening on US side. In fact, inverted curve has already shown on one such indicator
  3. The very fact that QT has not started is concerning

I know there's been "gloomy" talks on European side, on some macro and geopolitical front.
I don't trade based on politics, i.e. it doesn't concern me if some leaders say something, or someone threaten to do something. I don't get involve in those debate.
Likewise, I don't trade based on macroeconomic data. I use the volatility from data releases to exit my trades.

On technical side, it looks like the final phase (Phase E) of Wyckoff distribution on EURUSD has completed.
I'm not going to speculate where the price will go this week, until a new trend formation is confirmed.
To the upside, price needs to clear levels 1.007, 1.012, 1.016 before 1.02.

Cheers,
Cat

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Good day. EURUSD recovered the fall from Asia after Fridays close and now is consolidating below 1.0047. Vol is 68 pips.

Quoting Js3mwtRc
Good day. EURUSD recovered the fall from Asia after Fridays close and now is consolidating below 1.0047. Vol is 68 pips. {image}
1.0034 now is where we should see, more upside, or downside, don't forget we are near parity again and a break opens the road to 0.9953. Fundamentals are not good, but the psycological level of 1.0000 offers some support to the bulls that should take an advantage here.
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Feels right this time!
watching for 9979 and 9939 supports test and react!
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Not understand?never follow my analyses!
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