EURUSD only

Maybe we should wave some red towels...

What did I read?


I KNEW this would come in handy

Crazy usdx still on but waiting failure signal soon, as may last leg up. Like eu down! Care at Roughly eu 1.0006/9998, up and down also ok though. That any level may violent react up!
Daily close may compete with 0034 or 0012 if try bounce and likely! May any of two perfect.

1.0065 holded the price down and noe 1.0052 is the make it, or break it level. I see only 1.0008 as posible target.

Looking below parrot!

I think we will be breaking the low on EURUSD this time around and given the way things look I wouldn't be surprised to see a long term move down to the 0.87 level.

golden number for me 0029

Care to share the "factors" for DXY weakness please? interested. thanks

Clear bullish divergence in1 Hour timeframe, It would help bulls to reach some good level before day close.

Initial top failure usdx and eu bear but not enough, may 2 wave down or up possible. Take care

Difficult to avoid the unavoidable. The bottom will be tested today or...Monday.

Guys watch out its profit taking Friday! I have covered my short at above 1.0069. If, it doesn't bounce, it needs 8 more pips to complete the daily range, or its going to stagnate until the end close, or its going the opposite from here - 68 pips from bottom - 1.0104.

It would take me hours to explain them all. But I can give a few:

1. US government debt- Issued at ~2%. They didn't expect the bond market to sell off so much. Maybe they expected 2.5% or 2.75%? So they factor that in when issuing debt. Now, new debt is issued at 2.9%+. If feds continue to raise rates, then those rates continue higher. Now, they cannot afford to service the debt. Printing more money = dilution.

2. The US is a large exporter of goods. ~$1.5+ trillion per year. A stronger USD creates less demand for US goods. Increase rates = higher USD demand = Lower exports

3. When feds make their monetary policy decisions, they must consider what the leading countries of the world are doing as well. Europe is at 0%, China just cut rates, Japan is still negative, Swiss is still negative, etc.

4. The feds say they are worried about Inflation, but in fact, they are not. Most of the debt issued is NOT inflation protected. So all the old debt that has been issued is now much cheaper to pay back with inflated USD value. So to think that they have a significant worry about the 9% inflation, IMO is false. So they are not that interested in raising rates as much as most expect.

This all will not happen overnight of course. But it's easy to see that the USD is well overvalued. Europe does have its own set of problems. That is why I think parity or below is still in the cards. But, I don't think the market will allow this in a straight line.

Hope this helps, and I hope this doesn't get outside the guidelines for posting here.

Cheers!

Quoting Js3mwtRc

Disliked

EU broke above the falling trendline - time of writing and is looking to reach 1.0100 resistance at 15 min. Probably its going to fail again. Vol is bigger - 68 pips! {image}

Ignored

I shared this at morning, bulls target (1.0100) never reached and it droped below the marked blue shaded area. Volatility is 13 pips more from Monday open and it may reach higher if, it keep falling with this rythem.

Next week in the calendar the main theme will be the Jackson Hole symposium and FED's Powell speech. USDX is strong and its ealy yet to consider a turn in the longer term trend, but we may see the price consolidate around here also, next week will show us what it wants, following price action is the best we can do to avoid losses.

I am closing now, see you!

I think we can expect a last push down, right in the bullish orderblock area and we see a reversal @ 0.9991.
If the 1.000 area holds we are getting a major opportunity my friends.
-Going long @ 1.0010, building my way up.
-Target 1.0540 and holding longs long term.

Strong DXY sellers @ 108.43..

Looks no decision werkend and so may not daily close 0012, nor even 0034 or weekly 0084. So bear remain intact for next week, even able 0034. Take care

Minor Bull to 0160 - 0168, and then

Full Bearish 400 - 450 pips

How Euro is going really depends how EU wants to get through winter. If they still want to burden higher costs and worsen economic environment, EURUSD is likely to break 0.99 and need a relatively long time to bounce up. If they decided to have some agreements with Russia about Ukraine, or release some signals indicating incentives to capitals, a quick reverse is possible.

https://fxssi.com/tools/current-ratio

Retail longs going through the roof, now 72%. If they keep increasing longs at this pace we will approach 100% by the time we crash through parity.