Cable Update (GBPUSD)

The fall is not fast except for news, NFP and GU Interest rate.

On regular days, buy if it falls. Even if the level breaks. Still you can score.

The retrace is always unpredictable, can retrace more.


Because, gu has a weekly range of 250 pips.

Average 50 pips per day.

based on previous day low broken and h4 lower high lower low, to go down.

At the moment my sentiment leans more to the bullish side.
In my view weekly made higher high to previous week, heading towards 12400.
Daily dipped due to strong US event on Friday, then fast bounced of support 12003, next to attempt 12330.
Due to good employment data signs of recession are fading, no need to buy securities.

GBPUSD price action on the daily time frame is in a bullish correction of the 1.26670/1.17450 bearish swing. Presently, price action is sideways, but any further bullish move would be temporary as the technical structure is bearish.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I mentioned in my last (weekly summary) post on Friday that there is a repeating pattern of bearish hidden div in the dly osc's @ last week's 2293 hi. This would signal an entry into the wkly downtrend (next higher t/f) after the p/back from 1759. On the dly it comes @ a H after 2 x LH's but that H coincides with a potential LH on the wkly into whose downtrend it signals an entry after the said pullback. This repeating pattern on this gbpusd pairing, on this t/f, in that position, (ie @ a H after 2 x LH's,) into the next higher t/f established trend, has a 71% probability of seeing a with trend follow thru to a new trend lo below that 1759 current wkly trend/yrly lo. (This is based on a documented multi-year, large, now historical sample, in the forward market.)

I mention the above just to highlight that this is all I know...but it's also all I need to know... I do not know whether on this occasion this is what will happen...It may be one of the 29 times out of 100 that it, so far, hasn't. Now I don't actually trade the dly t/f as a trigger for entry but I keep stats/spreadsheets on all my repeating set-ups across all the t/f's, including those higher than I actually currently trade, so that if ever I decide to switch t/f's I am not doing so blind. My point is that there is no need to worry about where price is going to go and no need to try and predict/think/expect where it will go. All you need is probability.

I mentioned in a post on Saturday that there is a repeating pattern of bearish hidden div in the 15min osc's @ Friday's 2094 p/back hi. This of course also has a certain probability of success too (of both seeing some greater than or equal to 1:1 R:R pip gain, and in resulting in a new 1hr downtrend lo below fri's/last week's/the 1hr downtrend lo of 2003, [I record both these stats for each repeating set-up I trade,]) based again on a large multi-year historical sample. Again this is all I need to know. What will happen will happen, and I don't waste my time trying to 2nd guess the market, or in expecting/thinking this or that, or predicting - just real analysis.

You don't need to know what is going to happen to price next in order to make money. This is just as well because unless you have the trading plans of every market participant, at every second of the trading day, you cannot know.

Interesting behaviour so far today.
Price seems to be heading down first.
What will be interesting to see is if It makes a new low or misses, as that could be rather telling

If it continues to drop like this, expect a buy opportunity - but be wary. The recent low is just above 1.2
What's the bet that the market will eventually want to go beyond that price for fun before rising?

The price some time today likely to visit S1 below 2078

GU 4 hour.
short zone in blue.

above 2050, retrace today.

Broke the range.

May be new cycle for this week.

Dunno.

2050 is key support for today..and..

What are you looking at which area

They could choose to swing either direction today, but we probably won't find out until London open at this rate.

the wick of this candle , daily candle low probably 2048.

May be I am wrong.

I am going long above 2050

I am looking at 2160 first.

My stop 2050.

23 pips risk.

A correction up try towards 2108 to at best 2124 before tanking towards 1960 and if breaks the weekly bear may to stay, to and below 1889. And most likely. Anyway pa same as before. Take care

LO/ Frankfurt open likely to revisit today lows. ( or it may not )

Then long only today to me above 2050.

For today atleast.

May try tanking just above 2074 or. previous high near and or just plus. Take care long scalping.

Certain patterns I follow.

It is similar to last week on 2nd August.

Any case, i have my stop at 2050.

Will loose 23 pips if it hits.

If we can break 1.2080, be looking for at least 20 pips!!

Cadjpy long
sl 104.255
tp: 106.000