Cable Update (GBPUSD)

oooh.. I’m hoping to see a bounce from 120-11960

one short closed 12056 still open

The day just closed saw a 166pip >30day adr move - 130%. the week just closed saw a > 13wk awr move @ 103% of that metric, and the month that closed this last week (July) saw a sub 6mth amr range. The pullback from Friday's lo/the wkly 2003 lo gave back over 50% of Friday's drop down at the current pullback hi before the sellers came in again.

So, a resilient U.s job market creates a further 500k+ new jobs. One wonders if this is the high point of job creation in the U.s, during this particular economic cycle there, given what Mervyn King (ex Gvnr of Boe) used to call the 'headwinds' currently present and may be affecting the U.s economy?

Technically;

* The Mthly t/f remains in a general downtrend although July's candle (like May's [failed] ) closed as a pinbar, finding support in the wide prev sw lo zone that extends down to 1410 on that t/f. Not a good start for the bulls though to any upside off that pinbar as price found res in the pot sbr zone on the t/f that began at 2074 and has dropped since. The mthly osc's were in extreme o/s reads @ that 1759 lo.
* The Wkly t/f too remains in a general downtrend with 8 consecutive LH's the wkly 2293 hi encountering res in the prev sw hi zone that extends to 2333 ion this t/f, this being the last LH. The wkly candle closes as a bearish candle with a slightly longer upper wick. There is a repeating pattern of regular bullish div in the wkly osc's @ that 1759 lo.
* The Dly t/f printed a first HH @ the wkly 2293 hi after 2 x HL's but it too remains in a general downtrend but with these recent signs of strength. Another HH on this t/f and the downtrend may be over, the 1759-2293 move already being the 2nd largest upmove/pullback since the move down from 4249. The dly candle today (Friday) closes as a bearish-bodied hammer-type candle. Friday's lo although not a fractal swing (yet?) comes below the 2nd HL on this t/f. There is a repeating pattern of bearish hidden div in this t/f's osc's @ that 2293 hi.
* The 4Hr t/f 's last 3 fractal prints have been a HL, LH, and a L at Friday's (and the week's) 2003 lo, The t/f may be at the start of a general downtrend? The 2094 pullback hi following Friday's drop to 2003 came @ the prev 4hr/dly sw lo zone /38.2% of the 2241-2003 move. There is a repeating pattern of regular bullish div in the 4hr osc's at the Friday/weekly 2003 lo.

NB: chart conditions mentioned per 3 candle fractal swing analysis.

Mthly, Wkly, Dly, then 4Hr, below.

I think on Sunday price will open upwards retrace and then move up again

If you’re a gambling man you’d have to say that Monday will be a down day, before opportunity to go bull will appear.

but don’t gamble ok

Monday is probably reversal day, from around 2030 or little more low , short term ( first ) to me.

Let us see, any way, I trade after seeing the chart.

not for all, but might be useful for some, to all my friends here good luck and happy holidays, See You Again..

Thanks very useful, I have short term view almost the same, but you know pattern inside pattern inside pattern and its very complicated staff here. We are in correction waves inside correction waves inside correction waves.

I will wait for 1.196—> 1.1875 area as I sing for long time

then…… boom boom boom

my mid term view

the forth wave will be 3-3-5 style

may bear weekly , ok a wick at down to try bull next weeks . better a spike down below 1963 and most favoured just below 1889.both levels may play separately or merge to support . and ok support is coming to rescue !!
monday /tuesday may try up though as of H4 tf

Insightful, thanks!
Happy holidays too

my view

double bottom or 1.15

I was getting all ready to buy the Pound from down here, but I think signs are to sell for a new low

Do I understand correctly that you have changed your view? You no longer think it will hit 1.25 first and then drop? You now see it going down first and then rising to 1.25?

we are still in the Q3 so my plan still remain the same ..

its likely we gonna range a for a lil before trend move again

Hopefully first target will be 120 before 11950 early next week

GBPUSD gonna move to 1.20 once again in early of next week. Break this level or not I'm not sure. Time will tell

Just Enjoy EPL my beloved Chelsea vs Everton tonight first.

likely and long waiting at least after double top to double bottom play but as got one good target it tried to avoid further tanking and apparently in 1 last leg down . already abc down also , breakout up and can be any complex to down before a good signal only at 2666+ for a pullback over 3100. and as already a corrective wave up started , may continue over 2406++, so crazy extension may down now or above 2406 i and all extremely unpredictable at this stage .
already in big bear still , one good target meet and may go for other good targets like double bottom to 1050 areas with or without 2666!!suspect big ranges , so to play only what may happen now , work or not !! risky!!take care
as of h4 , price typically may to go below 1889 to up / restart again .next weekly support closewise can be 1944 areas if to bounce next weeks !

My View: 4H Time Frame

yes, price should not fall below 2060/50 region for recovery.

Agreed.

probably going to 1.15 by the end of September due to more hawkish FED and dovish BOE