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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #85,581
  • Jul 21, 2022 10:03am Jul 21, 2022 10:03am
i don't see any sign of a downtrend yet

bulls are buying dips
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,582
  • Jul 21, 2022 3:28pm Jul 21, 2022 3:28pm
Winds of change are upon us.

Yen strength and Dollar weakening looks to be in the new cycle.
THESE PEOPLE WITH COLORED BADGES ARE NOT PROFESSIONAL TRADERS
  • #85,583
  • Jul 21, 2022 4:04pm Jul 21, 2022 4:04pm
Quoting H13
Winds of change are upon us. Yen strength and Dollar weakening looks to be in the new cycle.
i doubt it

my buy order should be executed soon
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,584
  • Jul 22, 2022 6:51am Jul 22, 2022 6:51am
I'm not convinced of chasing the pullback on this pair, I prefer to sell EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY instead
don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,585
  • Jul 22, 2022 7:28am Jul 22, 2022 7:28am
maybe 136.6/5 will be solid support on h4 today
don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,586
  • Jul 22, 2022 9:08am Jul 22, 2022 9:08am
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} i doubt it my buy order should be executed soon {image}
maybe i will be stopped out today, but i will take my loss like a man
don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,587
  • Jul 22, 2022 9:23am Jul 22, 2022 9:23am
Short to 134.9 area. 161 extension off of the first retracement down. Got short at the top and adding on the way down. We may go up from there, but that's my target for the ABC off of the 139.9 Long trade. FRACTALS baby!!!
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #85,588
  • Jul 22, 2022 9:38am Jul 22, 2022 9:38am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
Short to 134.9 area. 161 extension off of the first retracement down. Got short at the top and adding on the way down. We may go up from there, but that's my target for the ABC off of the 139.9 Long trade. FRACTALS baby!!!
where did you short from? i think that 136.5/6 should offer some resistance today
don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,589
  • Jul 22, 2022 9:59am Jul 22, 2022 9:59am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
Short to 134.9 area. 161 extension off of the first retracement down. Got short at the top and adding on the way down. We may go up from there, but that's my target for the ABC off of the 139.9 Long trade. FRACTALS baby!!!

Out of my shorts. redrew my extension....
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #85,590
  • Jul 22, 2022 10:01am Jul 22, 2022 10:01am
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} where did you short from? i think that 136.5/6 should offer some resistance today
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I drew a Fib on the first drop and entered on the 70%. It has proven useful in the past. I also drew an extension on it, and targeted the 161. I am out now, thinking we may pop back up and continue through next week. Today should tell.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #85,591
  • Jul 22, 2022 11:17am Jul 22, 2022 11:17am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} {image} I drew a Fib on the first drop and entered on the 70%. It has proven useful in the past. I also drew an extension on it, and targeted the 161. I am out now, thinking we may pop back up and continue through next week. Today should tell.
Bitcoin appears to be doing the reverse on the 15m and appears to be ahead. Looking for UJ to end the day on the LOD then continue up.
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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #85,592
  • Jul 22, 2022 1:45pm Jul 22, 2022 1:45pm
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} i doubt it my buy order should be executed soon {image}
Ouch...

The currency markets move in ways the layman just aren't aware. There's so much just not explained to the open public. You really need to be a sharp trader to make it in this business.
THESE PEOPLE WITH COLORED BADGES ARE NOT PROFESSIONAL TRADERS
  • #85,593
  • Jul 22, 2022 1:54pm Jul 22, 2022 1:54pm
Quoting H13
{quote} Ouch... The currency markets move in ways the layman just aren't aware. There's so much just not explained to the open public. You really need to be a sharp trader to make it in this business.
i put a stop loss in and i didn't get stopped out yet
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,594
  • Jul 22, 2022 2:48pm Jul 22, 2022 2:48pm
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} i put a stop loss in and i didn't get stopped out yet {image}
You placed a 180 pip SL?

If you're trading anything substantial why would you put yourself through that. It's prudent to cut the loss at even 10 pips and move on to a really good set up.

This level did breach slightly, however you're stop is actually the better entry after the break down above. Don't put yourselves though unnecessary mental hurdles.
THESE PEOPLE WITH COLORED BADGES ARE NOT PROFESSIONAL TRADERS
  • #85,595
  • Jul 23, 2022 8:24am Jul 23, 2022 8:24am
Quoting H13
{quote} You placed a 180 pip SL? If you're trading anything substantial why would you put yourself through that. It's prudent to cut the loss at even 10 pips and move on to a really good set up. This level did breach slightly, however you're stop is actually the better entry after the break down above. Don't put yourselves though unnecessary mental hurdles.
10 pips is random noise

180 pip stop loss isn't much when swing or trend trading

USD is also a safe haven, so it doesn't really make much sense selling it when trading for the long-term
don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,596
  • Jul 23, 2022 9:51am Jul 23, 2022 9:51am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
Short to 134.9 area. 161 extension off of the first retracement down. Got short at the top and adding on the way down. We may go up from there, but that's my target for the ABC off of the 139.9 Long trade. FRACTALS baby!!!
134.90 seems about right. I think we might rocket up from there to 140+ after FOMC.
  • #85,597
  • Jul 23, 2022 11:00am Jul 23, 2022 11:00am
Quoting sixth sense
{quote} 134.90 seems about right. I think we might rocket up from there to 140+ after FOMC.
149 IMO. If inflation really looses it 180ish. We are just getting into things. Crypto winter is coming, and they speculate October 2023 to be the spring. If that is even somewhat true, UJ is going to be on highs. Right now that market (Bitcoin) seems to have bottomed and left the bracket going north, which will corelate to us moving down.
I am bearish through FOMC. IMO 134.9 is about to fail. I base this on the charts, and on a little trick I have picked up. I call it my FOMC indicator. The Thursday before FOMC between 9 and 11 pm EST., what I call the the FOMC move begins. Pull up a 30m chart, and you will see it historically. Whatever direction this instrument is going at that time it does for the week into the FOMC announcement. We will jump 140, but not yet. Round numbers are good liquidity traps. .9's and .8's get a lot of love. I think that was it. Possibly a small push north to trap some hopeful bulls still looking at 140, but then we are going south for a bit. I am watching Bitcoin's 31500-35000 area for congestion and will be looking at UJ to stall the slide around the same time. Should be just enough time for everyone in the forums to start shouting about awesome numbers to the south. UJ is like that. Waits until you are excited.. then turns lol.

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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #85,598
  • Jul 23, 2022 12:05pm Jul 23, 2022 12:05pm
Quoting H13
{quote} You placed a 180 pip SL? If you're trading anything substantial why would you put yourself through that. It's prudent to cut the loss at even 10 pips and move on to a really good set up. This level did breach slightly, however you're stop is actually the better entry after the break down above. Don't put yourselves though unnecessary mental hurdles.

What you are saying is the same thought process I had lol. But I realized that he isn't a chart trader. He is a trend Fundamentalist. For his style of trading you need a big account to start with, so he can withstand some pushing. Plus he gets it back because he puts only one trade on until things are going right and then stacking them. For someone who doesn't appear to concern himself with patterns etc, he doesn't seem to do that bad. I used to trade like him except I tried to also incorporate patterns and to instead grow my account and it went kablewy every time it hit a range because it takes time for Fundamentals to confirm a reversal of trend. At least he has a SL. There is another user used to come in here. Also a Fundamentalist. I think he is still selling 107.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #85,599
  • Jul 23, 2022 1:00pm Jul 23, 2022 1:00pm
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} 10 pips is random noise 180 pip stop loss isn't much when swing or trend trading USD is also a safe haven, so it doesn't really make much sense selling it when trading for the long-term
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} What you are saying is the same thought process I had lol. But I realized that he isn't a chart trader. He is a trend Fundamentalist. For his style of trading you need a big account to start with, so he can withstand some pushing......
To the both of you

What kind of trend trader buys just before the market sells off over 250 points...why even use a stop or set it at 500 pips then.

Those are just a few things wrong.

Trend trading that is not...throwing mud on a wall and hoping it sticks, yes.

Who are you trying to kid, this website is jam-packed with this kind of thing and it doesn't do justice to yourselves trying to validate it.

If you think it's good then more power to you.
THESE PEOPLE WITH COLORED BADGES ARE NOT PROFESSIONAL TRADERS
  • #85,600
  • Edited Jul 24, 2022 1:26pm Jul 23, 2022 9:59pm | Edited Jul 24, 2022 1:26pm
Quoting H13
{quote} {quote} To the both of you What kind of trend trader buys just before the market sells off over 250 points...why even use a stop or set it at 500 pips then. Those are just a few things wrong. Trend trading that is not...throwing mud on a wall and hoping it sticks, yes. Who are you trying to kid, this website is jam-packed with this kind of thing and it doesn't do justice to yourselves trying to validate it. If you think it's good then more power to you.
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} 10 pips is random noise 180 pip stop loss isn't much when swing or trend trading USD is also a safe haven, so it doesn't really make much sense selling it when trading for the long-term
I agree with both of you. As H13 said, winds of change are upon us. If you look at most JPY pairs, almost all of them are at MONTHLY Resistance. That means something, its not just coincidence. To buy near a fking Monthly Resistance is...suicidal to say the least. Look at GBPJPY, NZDJPY, AUDJPY, CADJPY, USDJPY... I mean, it doesnt take Sherlock Holmes to find out whats going on and what is likely going to happen. Only EURJPY isnt at a monthly resistance, but its still near and it shows, just like the rest, signs of bearishness.

With that being said, I also agree with ForexGoose that 10 pips is really random noise. Any widening of spread by your brokers around low liquidity hours, 5pm NY time, or any economic/fundamental news release will take you out. 10 pips Stop if you use m15 or less is fine, but not when you trade Weekly or Daily. 150 pips or 10 pips is the same if you risk 1% regardless of the Stop... I personally dont "endure" anything. Its not because you cant endure it or see drawdown as painful that others do.

If I sound rude, I apologize, it is not intended. Its hard to get the good "intonation" when writing and to get the good phrasing lol

So SL is usually a matter of which time frame you trade and whether its good or not depends on your RR. If you are like me and trade trend reversal based on the Monthly chart and enter after a Daily confirmation, I oftentimes get 150 pips stop but do I mind if im getting +800 pips? No, why would I? But, if you let your emotions get the best of you with a 150 pips Stop and you get out prematurely at +75 pips, of course its bad. Its all a matter of perspective and context.
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