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Quoting sammy454515
the pair's fall is at almost 200 pips. I don't have that much experience in the market. but it seems to me a very brutal onslaught of bears. (force or attempt to complete this wave soon) the day is delivered to the bears, the next, I believe that the bulls should be present to the point of correcting (starting with tomorrow). such a force of movement as this has good chances of the next day being retraction or low volatility. (at least in my view). but ATA.... What do you think of this huge fall???
I follow the technicals and based on weekly and daily this drop is just the long expected wave 5.. many will rush in trying to buy the dips but these kind of waves end when they end.. As you said, maybe tomorrow maybe next week.. I am not in a rush.. Let's see how it goes..
Be a seer, not a looker!
Ata's Trend Hunter V2.0 All Time Return: 8.6%
Hitting a touch of monthly resistance on the dxy.... either they punch through or we retrace.
i sell @1.02416 SL 10pips, TP 1.02203.
Not losing money is almost good as making money
We are in a downtrend since 29 jun - H4 time frame
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REDA_EL_HARAOUI
ELITE MOROCCO SNIPER All Time Return: 27.5%
Nearest and foremost bull target: 1.0266..
Be a seer, not a looker!
Ata's Trend Hunter V2.0 All Time Return: 8.6%
Hi all!

I guess it could be touch 1.02 before rebound.
Descending Triangle pattern validated on Daily.
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Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Nearest and foremost bull target: 1.0266..
According to the wave counts that were done, this drop can be sub-wave 3 of wave 5, and probably to complete this wave 5, a sub-wave 4 is also needed, which you mentioned well in the previous analysis.
Quoting Erkat
{quote} According to the wave counts that were done, this drop can be sub-wave 3 of wave 5, and probably to complete this wave 5, a sub-wave 4 is also needed, which you mentioned well in the previous analysis.
Yes correct.. we are probably in the early stages of a wave 4 of 5 now..

*Imho, as long as price doesn't go to 1.0627 the trend on daily will stay bearish and wave cycle will not be complete..
Be a seer, not a looker!
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After we reach late market hours, the general mistake of retail traders is to try to catch a fresh sell entry... Don't do that.. no selling after Europe closes! Beware of the "vacuum" effect!
Be a seer, not a looker!
Ata's Trend Hunter V2.0 All Time Return: 8.6%
daily looks reach the target today !! not know what happen to the market , no time to see also today, and miss short again.
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Not understand?never follow my analyses!
Finally good news!

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Feels right this time!
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
After we reach late market hours, the general mistake of retail traders is to try to catch a fresh sell entry... Don't do that.. no selling after Europe closes! Beware of the "vacuum" effect!
This is an interesting piece of advice - and very absolute! 0265 would appear to be an opportune pullback level for a short entry on the H1 with a TP target of 0210. Can you elaborate on your reasoning behind "no selling after Europe closes" and the "'vacuum' effect"? Your wording makes it sound like a firm rule of yours. Do you believe H1 entry points aren't reliable outside of European market hours?
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} New pivot point at 0275 and resistance is at 0307. Support is at 0210!
Keeps droping, now 0262 is the new decision point. The price may drop, bounce, or stay around there for a nap
Feels right this time!
Quoting gmettler
{quote} This is an interesting piece of advice - and very absolute! 0265 would appear to be an opportune pullback level for a short entry on the H1 with a TP target of 0210. Can you elaborate on your reasoning behind "no selling after Europe closes" and the "'vacuum' effect"? Your wording makes it sound like a firm rule of yours. Do you believe H1 entry points aren't reliable outside of European market hours?
Yes in general I respect the vacuum effect a lot... This last drop could be a bear trap before handing over wave 3 to wave 4.. and the end of London session can also have unexpected effects (not always though)..

Long story short: Traders must beware!
Be a seer, not a looker!
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Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Yes correct.. we are probably in the early stages of a wave 4 of 5 now.. *Imho, as long as price doesn't go to 1.0627 the trend on daily will stay bearish and wave cycle will not be complete..
excellent ⁦⁦⁩
Since wave 4 should not enter wave 2, if a correction occurs it could be up to the 1.0350(+-) level.

with today's sharp decline, I think a correction to the 23 Fibo level makes sense
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Depois de chegarmos às horas tardias do mercado, o erro geral dos comerciantes de varejo é tentar pegar uma nova entrada de venda... Não faça isso... não venda depois que a Europa fechar! Cuidado com o efeito "vácuo"!
qual seria esse efeito?
Quoting sammy454515
{quote} qual seria esse efeito?
It could cause a sudden rally back to 1.0430...
Be a seer, not a looker!
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Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} It could cause a sudden rally back to 1.0430...
Starting to feel like the sheep have been fleeced for a minute. A .5 retracement would be nice.
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} This last drop could be a bear trap before handing over wave 3 to wave 4
Hmmmm. The data that gives the bear trap hypothesis a little more weight for me is that the volume to pip range ratio on today's big drop is noticeably lighter (so far) than the ones from 6/9 - 6/13 and 4/22 - 4/28. A wave 4 retracement is almost sure to come, but the question is obviously how far? Erkat has suggested 0350.

I have had too many painful experiences in the past trying to catch falling knives however. Much more to be gained by trading with the trend. And when a major downside violation occurs like this morning's explosion through the green line followed by the break of 0350, more often than not I think it takes a while for the bulls to lick their wounds and venture back into the fray with any force. New short positions taken at justifiable H1 levels in the immediate aftermath of a collapse often have a long time (many hours, if not more than a day) before being seriously tested to the upside. See 0630 from 6/9. 0815 on 4/22 is interesting because there was a decent attempt at a shakeout for 30 pips above, but when that effort was rejected at the green line it proceeded to drop another 325 pips over the following 4 days.

If either one of my examples above doesn't compare well to our present situation because they were at different places in the wave cycle and that matters, then I concede. I'm not well informed about or experienced with wave theory at all. It just seems that the odds are greater for further continuation to the downside early in a strong downward move (within the first day) and there is ample time and opportunity to set a modest SL to protect against something like a bear trap or wave reversal.
Quoting gmettler
{quote} Hmmmm. The data that gives the bear trap hypothesis a little more weight for me is that the volume to pip range ratio on today's big drop is noticeably lighter (so far) than the ones from 6/9 - 6/13 and 4/22 - 4/28. A wave 4 retracement is almost sure to come, but the question is obviously how far? Erkat has suggested 0350. I have had too many painful experiences in the past trying to catch falling knives however. Much more to be gained by trading with the trend. And when a major downside violation occurs like this morning's explosion through...
I hear your concern BUT price reaching fib 161.8 is generally where the falling knife hits the floor... so? As long as price stays near to 1.0239 all good..
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