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  • #151,061
  • Jul 5, 2022 10:14am Jul 5, 2022 10:14am
i sell @1.02416 SL 10pips, TP 1.02203.
Not losing money is almost good as making money
  • #151,062
  • Jul 5, 2022 10:16am Jul 5, 2022 10:16am
We are in a downtrend since 29 jun - H4 time frame
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REDA_EL_HARAOUI
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  • #151,063
  • Jul 5, 2022 10:21am Jul 5, 2022 10:21am
Nearest and foremost bull target: 1.0266..
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #151,064
  • Jul 5, 2022 10:26am Jul 5, 2022 10:26am
Hi all!

I guess it could be touch 1.02 before rebound.
Descending Triangle pattern validated on Daily.
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  • #151,065
  • Jul 5, 2022 10:31am Jul 5, 2022 10:31am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Nearest and foremost bull target: 1.0266..
According to the wave counts that were done, this drop can be sub-wave 3 of wave 5, and probably to complete this wave 5, a sub-wave 4 is also needed, which you mentioned well in the previous analysis.
Half of the time, the market is building resistance and support levels, and
  • #151,066
  • Jul 5, 2022 10:38am Jul 5, 2022 10:38am
Quoting Erkat
{quote} According to the wave counts that were done, this drop can be sub-wave 3 of wave 5, and probably to complete this wave 5, a sub-wave 4 is also needed, which you mentioned well in the previous analysis.
Yes correct.. we are probably in the early stages of a wave 4 of 5 now..

*Imho, as long as price doesn't go to 1.0627 the trend on daily will stay bearish and wave cycle will not be complete..
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #151,067
  • Jul 5, 2022 10:44am Jul 5, 2022 10:44am
After we reach late market hours, the general mistake of retail traders is to try to catch a fresh sell entry... Don't do that.. no selling after Europe closes! Beware of the "vacuum" effect!
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #151,068
  • Edited 11:42am Jul 5, 2022 10:48am | Edited 11:42am
daily looks reach the target today !! not know what happen to the market , no time to see also today, and miss short again.
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #151,069
  • Jul 5, 2022 10:52am Jul 5, 2022 10:52am
Finally good news!

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Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #151,070
  • Jul 5, 2022 11:18am Jul 5, 2022 11:18am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
After we reach late market hours, the general mistake of retail traders is to try to catch a fresh sell entry... Don't do that.. no selling after Europe closes! Beware of the "vacuum" effect!
This is an interesting piece of advice - and very absolute! 0265 would appear to be an opportune pullback level for a short entry on the H1 with a TP target of 0210. Can you elaborate on your reasoning behind "no selling after Europe closes" and the "'vacuum' effect"? Your wording makes it sound like a firm rule of yours. Do you believe H1 entry points aren't reliable outside of European market hours?
  • #151,071
  • Jul 5, 2022 11:21am Jul 5, 2022 11:21am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} New pivot point at 0275 and resistance is at 0307. Support is at 0210!
Keeps droping, now 0262 is the new decision point. The price may drop, bounce, or stay around there for a nap
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #151,072
  • Jul 5, 2022 11:21am Jul 5, 2022 11:21am
Quoting gmettler
{quote} This is an interesting piece of advice - and very absolute! 0265 would appear to be an opportune pullback level for a short entry on the H1 with a TP target of 0210. Can you elaborate on your reasoning behind "no selling after Europe closes" and the "'vacuum' effect"? Your wording makes it sound like a firm rule of yours. Do you believe H1 entry points aren't reliable outside of European market hours?
Yes in general I respect the vacuum effect a lot... This last drop could be a bear trap before handing over wave 3 to wave 4.. and the end of London session can also have unexpected effects (not always though)..

Long story short: Traders must beware!
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #151,073
  • Jul 5, 2022 11:24am Jul 5, 2022 11:24am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Yes correct.. we are probably in the early stages of a wave 4 of 5 now.. *Imho, as long as price doesn't go to 1.0627 the trend on daily will stay bearish and wave cycle will not be complete..
excellent ⁦⁦⁩
Since wave 4 should not enter wave 2, if a correction occurs it could be up to the 1.0350(+-) level.

with today's sharp decline, I think a correction to the 23 Fibo level makes sense
Half of the time, the market is building resistance and support levels, and
  • #151,074
  • Jul 5, 2022 11:34am Jul 5, 2022 11:34am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Depois de chegarmos às horas tardias do mercado, o erro geral dos comerciantes de varejo é tentar pegar uma nova entrada de venda... Não faça isso... não venda depois que a Europa fechar! Cuidado com o efeito "vácuo"!
qual seria esse efeito?
  • #151,075
  • Jul 5, 2022 11:43am Jul 5, 2022 11:43am
Quoting sammy454515
{quote} qual seria esse efeito?
It could cause a sudden rally back to 1.0430...
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #151,076
  • Jul 5, 2022 11:55am Jul 5, 2022 11:55am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} It could cause a sudden rally back to 1.0430...
Starting to feel like the sheep have been fleeced for a minute. A .5 retracement would be nice.
  • #151,077
  • Jul 5, 2022 12:20pm Jul 5, 2022 12:20pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} This last drop could be a bear trap before handing over wave 3 to wave 4
Hmmmm. The data that gives the bear trap hypothesis a little more weight for me is that the volume to pip range ratio on today's big drop is noticeably lighter (so far) than the ones from 6/9 - 6/13 and 4/22 - 4/28. A wave 4 retracement is almost sure to come, but the question is obviously how far? Erkat has suggested 0350.

I have had too many painful experiences in the past trying to catch falling knives however. Much more to be gained by trading with the trend. And when a major downside violation occurs like this morning's explosion through the green line followed by the break of 0350, more often than not I think it takes a while for the bulls to lick their wounds and venture back into the fray with any force. New short positions taken at justifiable H1 levels in the immediate aftermath of a collapse often have a long time (many hours, if not more than a day) before being seriously tested to the upside. See 0630 from 6/9. 0815 on 4/22 is interesting because there was a decent attempt at a shakeout for 30 pips above, but when that effort was rejected at the green line it proceeded to drop another 325 pips over the following 4 days.

If either one of my examples above doesn't compare well to our present situation because they were at different places in the wave cycle and that matters, then I concede. I'm not well informed about or experienced with wave theory at all. It just seems that the odds are greater for further continuation to the downside early in a strong downward move (within the first day) and there is ample time and opportunity to set a modest SL to protect against something like a bear trap or wave reversal.
  • #151,078
  • Jul 5, 2022 12:49pm Jul 5, 2022 12:49pm
Quoting gmettler
{quote} Hmmmm. The data that gives the bear trap hypothesis a little more weight for me is that the volume to pip range ratio on today's big drop is noticeably lighter (so far) than the ones from 6/9 - 6/13 and 4/22 - 4/28. A wave 4 retracement is almost sure to come, but the question is obviously how far? Erkat has suggested 0350. I have had too many painful experiences in the past trying to catch falling knives however. Much more to be gained by trading with the trend. And when a major downside violation occurs like this morning's explosion through...
I hear your concern BUT price reaching fib 161.8 is generally where the falling knife hits the floor... so? As long as price stays near to 1.0239 all good..
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #151,079
  • Jul 5, 2022 1:05pm Jul 5, 2022 1:05pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} I hear your concern BUT price reaching fib 161.8 is generally where the falling knife hits the floor... so? As long as price stays near to 1.0239 all good.. {image}
In your analysis, is the 1.0299 level an important point?
because I am waiting for the 23 Fibo level which is at 1.0285, of course as the first stop.
Half of the time, the market is building resistance and support levels, and
  • #151,080
  • Jul 5, 2022 1:18pm Jul 5, 2022 1:18pm
Quoting Erkat
{quote} In your analysis, is the 1.0299 level an important point? because I am waiting for the 23 Fibo level which is at 1.0285, of course as the first stop.
It is important IF you are trading the H4 chart... It is nearest resistance there and could provide sell opportunities.. but again: only for those who trade the H4 timeframe.. If you don't. then just ignore..
Focus only on what truly matters!
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