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{quote} May I know what is a Z price?
I'm not clear and still learn ... MAN
- #1,724
- Jun 10, 2022 1:02am Jun 10, 2022 1:02am
- Joined Dec 2018 | Status: Trader | 4,600 Posts
{quote}
Hi TimeTell, Thanks for the explanation. The candle which i marked as the breakout candle after the inflection zone was actually a fake move right? This is where most traders get caught and place buy trades BUT at times there is no fakeout and price actually goes in the direction of the breakout candle. I have heard of London or Franky fake moves but its very hard to tell which is fake and which is not beforehand. And then if we are patient then we may get to see the fakeout but quite a few times there is no fake move and we may miss the...
Hi W, my post is referring to the first chart from your quoted post above.
Long answer coming, I couldn't complete it any other way (I talk like this too
, ask zoltan, he's like me too, people avoid us as we can chat on and on lol 
but we chat together no probs at all 
)Hi W,
You have hit the nail right on the HEAD imo.
How can we know?
The reality of trading is that we cannot. For example, if you & I would know, for sure, then probably 100,000 other traders would ALSO know the exact SAME thing at the SAME time as us.
The market cannot conduct itself under those circumstances of certainty. As we NEXT have to stretch our minds and think deeper into the heart of retail Forex, and think just WHO then will be the COUNTER-PARTY to ALL our 100,000 perfect trades.
The answer to that is a pineapple (as we say in Oz. ie we may never know the actual answer).
Andy, oh YES again lol, created an interesting thread “Real Or Algo” where all the counter-party possibilities were threshed out over months I reckon and with NO final conclusion or Group acceptance of one idea ever eventuating.
I have spent so much of my thinking time on this topic, found out what I could trade with from my answer, and then concluded and advised as many folk as I could that I believe IT DOESN’T REALLY MATTER lol.
So.
Back to your chart.
To me, and in hindsight of course, but as in all life hindsight understanding provides for us
FUTURE PREPAREDNESS
Stopping again sorry lol, but MUST be said imo
I have heard so many traders say “Oh yeah, you can see it all in hindsight” lol, but hindsight is also what hopefully stops a young child from putting their hands in the fire a second time.
So I dismiss hindsight naysayers and ONLY look to how I can be better PREPARED next time for me if a similar situation occurs, by utilising hindsight.
Sorry for the length of this post, but some sh!t is very important to me, and weeding out the wrong thinking which I sometimes hear is important to me (traders can think any way they wish of course, but I mean for me & my trading future).
Okay. LOL.
Your chart assessment for the breakout trade to me looked GREAT, and at the right spot.
I went back and had a look and if you bought at the start of that 15m candle you would have profited 13 pips with an 8 pip drawdown in between.
- BUT ONLY IF - lol
from your hindsight understanding that the next candles were going to be when London opened and you were now fully prepared for “anything” to occur. And maybe with huge volatility which if negative to your trade could be disastrous so you (well me lol) would have been VERY happy to take our profit around 10p (not 13) and then just see what happens (think of big session “openings” as a bit like Red News lol where “price could go anywhere”).
(see chart below showing the ONLY 4 possibilities of what could happen between both Franky & London so you have a 25% chance of getting it right before Franky and a 50% chance before London knowing what Franky did - whew - hope that makes sense. if you are right = big profits, if wrong maybe stop out or time/pain)
TIMING
Franky and London are always a worry as IF we end up trading against THEM they have huge power at the session opens.
Your assessment of what we can know beforehand and what we can’t know was excellent.
(that doesn’t help you choose a correct trade, but starts you thinking now of probabilities - which is the next big topic I guess lol).
all the best
.
- #1,725
- Jun 10, 2022 1:20am Jun 10, 2022 1:20am
{quote} Hi W, my post is referring to the first chart from your quoted post above. Long answer coming, I couldn't complete it any other way (I talk like this too
Happy Trading all
- #1,729
- Edited 12:34pm Jun 10, 2022 8:19am | Edited 12:34pm
- Joined Nov 2020 | Status: Trader | 2,634 Posts
{quote} Nice call Ihlas.
Not bad sell zone after yesterday's marathonIt looks like we have also head and shoulders shampoo {image}
It was just in an overvalued zone
- #1,730
- Jun 10, 2022 2:20pm Jun 10, 2022 2:20pm
- Joined May 2010 | Status: Straight line Fest | 3,194 Posts
Hope everyone had a great weeks trading.
Would just like to say that the posts made this week have been first rate and thanks to all that have contributed
For someone looking in for the first time, there is no one method either explained or inferred.
There are however regular contributors who have their own thoughts and methods who regularly post charts and hints.
They do this off their own back, no one is obliged to contribute or indeed to use the information given.
The one thing I will say about those who regularly contribute to the thread, the ones that I know, they genuinely do trade.
And they are just like you, regular people looking to make a way in trading.
The methods that they employ now would have worked 50 years ago and no reason that they won't heading into the future.
The single one reason for the markets to be made available are for those, controlling the markets, (and they are controlled), to make consistent money.
You as a trader must figure that out.
No one from the controlling Elite lose money!
Trading provides them with consistent money, guaranteed.
To do that the markets have to move in the most efficient way possible.
Each move is planned, in advance.
The thread started as a discussion and it has lived up to that, I have however added one line to the opening post,
No secret or hidden agendas to be found on this thread!
Hope all have a great weekend!
Andy.
Would just like to say that the posts made this week have been first rate and thanks to all that have contributed
For someone looking in for the first time, there is no one method either explained or inferred.
There are however regular contributors who have their own thoughts and methods who regularly post charts and hints.
They do this off their own back, no one is obliged to contribute or indeed to use the information given.
The one thing I will say about those who regularly contribute to the thread, the ones that I know, they genuinely do trade.
And they are just like you, regular people looking to make a way in trading.
The methods that they employ now would have worked 50 years ago and no reason that they won't heading into the future.
The single one reason for the markets to be made available are for those, controlling the markets, (and they are controlled), to make consistent money.
You as a trader must figure that out.
No one from the controlling Elite lose money!
Trading provides them with consistent money, guaranteed.
To do that the markets have to move in the most efficient way possible.
Each move is planned, in advance.
The thread started as a discussion and it has lived up to that, I have however added one line to the opening post,
No secret or hidden agendas to be found on this thread!
Hope all have a great weekend!
Andy.
- #1,733
- Jun 11, 2022 4:37am Jun 11, 2022 4:37am
- Joined Nov 2020 | Status: Trader | 2,634 Posts
Candle formation with the rhythm:
Inserted Video
- #1,734
- Jun 11, 2022 7:36am Jun 11, 2022 7:36am
{quote} Cheers Andy, and as we have discussed before we also believe RickM found something very useful in trading for himself (& others) with his study of volumes of the 1 minute candles, where he also saw certain repetitive things were happening, and well done to him. Others trade the 5min brilliantly (Kev), while Andy has the 1hr chart (with 1 wk & 1mth deep observations) under his domain. WE ALL see similar things are happening. That the market repeats its behaviours in the "areas" we all focus on individually. Which was what George was saying....
Going over the thread, I'm struggling with the targets.
In hindsight it looks great, but what about this specific example...
price breaks the D open and the first target below is very near, yet it takes out the higher one...
Has this to do with experience or rules?
Thanks!
- #1,737
- Edited 4:57pm Jun 11, 2022 4:36pm | Edited 4:57pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,208 Posts
Where are you trading from ?
Are you caught up in the wash? Getting rinsed out !
Where does the smart money trade???... Well they dont trade in the wash.
They trade from OUTSIDE the washing machine,,,not INSIDE.
Trading from the outside/the extremes is the lowest risk highest reward setups there are,,,,
DONT TRADE INSIDE THE MATRIX....TRADE FROM THE OUTSIDE !
This trade could have gone long but that would have been 200 pips back up to PDH previous day high.
This is where you need to THINK....THINK in PROBABILITIES....
Are we inside of the prev day or outside???
Look at the Daily chart. Look at the CONTEXT of that chart and the candles.
When you look at the 15M chart i have shared...the PDH the PDL is THE Daily candle H/L....Keep that in mind when analyzing the current day/session.. Are you trading INSIDE of the previous day ? Chances are price will move outside of the PD and close outside of the PD.... Can we have an INSIDE day ?? Sure thing..Its why we use a Stop just above the high on the trade I have highlighted.
Hopefully this makes sense to give you more context when your looking at the charts..
Look at what deanyakobs just posted from George...as well all pertinent questions to ask yourself.
Then think what has the yen/this pair been doing...its on a beauty of an uptrend...thus many traders in long with stops(liquidity) piling up at lower levels. Look at where the NY market sold off to....that tells you where the nearest stops have been placed... Now where the market goes we never know for sure. But this is classic smart money grabbing liquidity...
Whats the purpose of showing a chart in hindsight ? The main thing is its for training yourself to SEE MARKET MECHANICS...to learn the PSYCHOLOGY of WHY THE MARKETS MOVE IN A CERTAIN WAY. So you can build a trading methodology ,,,knowledge and convert it into experience by trading live and drawing upon your knowledge base to know what to look for etc...
As well TIME IS OF THE UTMOST IMPORTANCE.....Know when the markets open close overlap etc...Ive highlighted the 3 ACTIVE session times where the highest probability setups will generally occur.
Now if you really want to iron down market mechanics.. i highly recommend watching Stacey Burke on YouTube.. I trade in a very similar way to Stacey and he has a lot of great useful info.
Just my rambling thoughts on a 37c today here in Mexico...Hiding from the sun today after a few long days at the beach and in the pool.... So figured Id toss up a few charts and some thoughts,,,,,, and just to reiterate.... TRADE FROM THE OUTSIDE !!!!
Cheers
Blue
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
- #1,738
- Jun 11, 2022 5:06pm Jun 11, 2022 5:06pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,208 Posts
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
- #1,740
- Edited 7:33pm Jun 11, 2022 5:53pm | Edited 7:33pm
- Joined Jan 2020 | Status: Membership revoke | 2,332 Posts
Know what you trade