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Flying Dutchman

  • #1,681
  • Jun 9, 2022 3:40am Jun 9, 2022 3:40am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote}
I always use cash when I can.

Hi D-M, cheers pal. I'm looking now at the largest chart widest view I can find (it's only the Monthly in Forex lol)
but if you have cash in your hands and manage to get inside the shopkeeper's shop to buy your groceries, then
how far OUT of the shop on your way home might you get with 100 other hungry folks waanting to look inside your shopping bags

It's gonna be some fun & games
  • #1,682
  • Jun 9, 2022 3:58am Jun 9, 2022 3:58am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi D-M, cheers pal. I'm looking now at the largest chart widest view I can find (it's only the Monthly in Forex lol) but if you have cash in your hands and manage to get inside the shopkeeper's shop to buy your groceries, then how far OUT of the shop on your way home might you get with 100 other hungry folks waanting to look inside your shopping bags It's gonna be some fun & games
That would depend..which shop I had visited...before the grocers....HINT HINT HINT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,683
  • Jun 9, 2022 4:09am Jun 9, 2022 4:09am
Quoting whitesta
{quote}
You guys have mastered something special...lol.

Hi W,

Cheers pal.

It might look like that from the outside LOL (one persistent poster called it all magic hahaa, well and BS too )

But it's quite simply just the Market Mechanics.

Price, when we think about it can only go up or down (after those Inflection areas, my faves ).


This can all be studied sure, but in the end it still has to be 'seen'.

After that a trader can begin to finesse with some maths targets & expansion targets.

I focused on one pair at first to see if I could just observe it.

In the end Andy showed me clearly that it happens on all pairs, but its harder to observe multiple pairs (well for me) to get the starting idea right.

In the end its a matter of dedication and work but achieveable, we're not really rocket scientists here.

And I've watched on FF many a computer scientist & quant come and go in forex over time and they usually end up going back to million dollar a year jobs with Hedge Funds & Institutions and work their real their magic on the percentage advantages via hedging and offsetting.

They do there what I could not.


The video in the link just below is a view imo of the market in operation lol (the gal was pure diversion, thank you).

The outer spin rim imho is seen as the very extreme that price has ever been to
(and is not finite in forex, as price at some point in time could go higher or lower).

The inner spin-rims and directional changes are what I reckon we experience in the intraday currency movements.

It's just food for thought, that's all.


https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post13828254
  • #1,684
  • Jun 9, 2022 4:12am Jun 9, 2022 4:12am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote}
That would depend..which shop I had visited...before the grocers....HINT HINT HINT {image}

Hahaaa , you are good fun D-M thank you sir.

Me though, looking ahead then at the greater than monthly chart can

ONLY THINK

What if everybody outside the shopkepper's store was loaded up just the SAME.

And then,

Back to square one, think about it
  • #1,685
  • Jun 9, 2022 4:45am Jun 9, 2022 4:45am
Quoting Onra
{quote} Ihlas, can you "see" it on your 4H chart, or do you need higher TF's as well?
Yes, I can "see'. I don't look above 4H chart, even 4H chart for demonstration purpose.
  • #1,686
  • Jun 9, 2022 4:57am Jun 9, 2022 4:57am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi W, Cheers pal. It might look like that from the outside LOL (one persistent poster called it all magic hahaa, well and BS too ) But it's quite simply just the Market Mechanics. Price, when we think about it can only go up or down (after those Inflection areas, my faves ). This can all be studied sure, but in the end it still has to be 'seen'. After that a trader can begin to finesse with some maths targets & expansion targets. I focused on one pair at first to see if I could...
Yes its same for me too. i try to look at one or two pairs. Only GBP/JPY at the moment cos we get most info on that here. I am only able to skin it in HINDSIGHT...lol. The ahah moment is only after it has happened. Just focussing on Daily Opens and which side the price is trying to go and then which targets it might reach. Confusion starts when even after thrust candles it reverses and just plays around the Daily Open.. lol. Then i try and look deeper as to see which time it happened and so on. Lots to learn but atleast i am on the right track.

Happy Trading All
  • #1,687
  • Jun 9, 2022 6:13am Jun 9, 2022 6:13am
So yesterday's H is again overvalued zone, so we can start selling from here, better sell yesterday's H
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,688
  • Jun 9, 2022 6:15am Jun 9, 2022 6:15am
Quoting whitesta
{quote}
Confusion starts when even after thrust candles it reverses and just plays around the Daily Open.. lol.

me:
Price, when we think about it can only go up or down (AFTER those Inflection areas, my FAVES )


Hi W,

I love your words sir, as when you call it confusion - imho that is WHAT the market likes traders to be in.

You have described perfectly what I call THE pea & shell game, the sleight of hand,
the moves of the up candle down candle confusions (ie where is the pea, under which shell now???).

These are when traders should smile to ourselves and remain patient.

When the market plays around at a price line (ie day open, prior target, round number, S&R line, Pivot line, etc etc etc etc) that folks often wish to be reversal points
they are actually creating an Inflection Area and that is our most greatly desired situation.

Buyers & sellers are then BOTH trapped. Where will price go, what are our Indis telling us, our MAs our zig zags, our rsi's, our stochs etc etc etc etc
ALL indis most likely at that point are giving frustrating, mixed or SOFT signals where the impatient trader will say
"I've had enough waiting lol I'll just take a Buy (or Sell) now as my indi looks like it is saying this."

A trader is NOT alone then, this is the bane of many forex traders as they finally, in exasperation say, "I gotta trade, and I gotta trade now"

Where my suggestion would be to embrace the Inflection Plays, as when they break away (and we CAN see these in hindsight after),
SOMETHING happens and that once the market finally runs it mostly won't be stopped until a target (or many, maybe near maybe far) is reached.

Those are as I see it, The Mechanics.

Don't trade for cash unless its pennies, or use Simulators, or Demos until a trader acquires the patience to wait the market out. Then its gold.

(On a break there can also be a quick pullback, were we wrong in our trade, who knows yet, watch, the market must show us).


We shouldn't be too hard on ourselves or push ourself too early in our understandings, as when that happens traders might throw their hands in the air and look for a new system or another indi that they can then 'backfit' into showing how they might have AVOIDED their LAST failed trade. Wrong way to go.

If we can see the setup that has already been inflected and 'tested' and rotated and then breaks, then we can trade (with an exit or adjust plan).

Does it matter if we miss the start of the run. NO. Does it matter if we miss ALL of the run or that trade. NO.

There will be others and we learn by each situation. And the situations then repeat.

Trade safe & trade well, if we can't see a trade we DON'T trade now.
  • #1,689
  • Edited 6:58am Jun 9, 2022 6:18am | Edited 6:58am
Quoting whitesta
{quote} Hi Deanyakobs, Could you elaborate a bit more for new traders like us. Would be very much appreciated. Happy Trading All
Hi Whitesta, as i get that words from Mr. George in his first thread,
For me its all about overvalued zones (SELL zone) and undervalued zone (BUY zone), may be

above and/or below
its about total range for the day in comparison with each session range, again my may be
or averaging what price can do and what price can NOT do on each overvalue or undervalue zone

in order to make better assesment about how much price direction can go ABOVE and BELOW (somekind like PRICE LIMIT/PRICE WALL or BWilliam call it VALUATION INTENT (above/below)
or
where the price likely STOP (and reverse), again on above and below

Ihlas use previous WEEK HIGH and previous WEEK LOW, maybe

George get a very good handle on
WHERE PRICE WILL GO (1st) then WHERE PRICE WILL STOP AND TURN (2nd).
He is asking sexy question like WHERE IS PRICE WILL STOP ?
then WHY PRICE WILL STOP THERE ? (BEFORE that price movement HAPPEN)

(from my side its ALL about UNDERSTANDING and MASTERING MM PSYCHOLOGY APPLIED ON PRICE BEHAVIOUR, some kind like KNOW HOW MM is THINKING at any moment BASED on his motive : TO MAKE MONEY DAILY (by targeting MOST trader STOP LOSS AND TRAILING STOP order in ALL time frame)

and add that with his modus operandi to always confuse, always abuse and get most market participant in extreme fear and doubt mode (confusing the most market participant most of the time)

I don't have exact and correct answer, actually. This my best interpretation about DOL, and SESSION open price line in relationship with RANGES for the day.
BWilliam use mathematics things like permutation and Rieman Hyphotesis (beyond my understanding), while i use/prefer to use ADR and PRICE ENTRY FILTER (George version) in correlation with Herd Support/Resistance mentality.

Its all about 95% MM psychology AND 5% market structure/market dynamics.

But i can go wrong with it and it just my best guess
still learn and learn here Whitesta with 0,01 lot everyday

May be BWilliam can add some notes here and there or TimeTell, MoodyBoot and Blue Steel, I hope
to correct our understanding (our first genuine edge)

All the Best
  • #1,690
  • Jun 9, 2022 8:22am Jun 9, 2022 8:22am
Quoting Ihlas
So yesterday's H is again overvalued zone, so we can start selling from here, better sell yesterday's H {image}
Bam
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,691
  • Jun 9, 2022 3:55pm Jun 9, 2022 3:55pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} BIS decision = equals a fait accompli the CB of all CBs
I think the take away here, for crypto speculators, is that the crypto market as we know it today is not going to be around much longer, and those traders should not expect their trading advantage to be long-term (unlike the "magic" of Forex trading knowledge and skills). Crypto delta trading has a short shelf life, unfortunately.
  • #1,692
  • Jun 9, 2022 5:13pm Jun 9, 2022 5:13pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I think the take away here, for crypto speculators, is that the crypto market as we know it today is not going to be around much longer, and those traders should not expect their trading advantage to be long-term (unlike the "magic" of Forex trading knowledge and skills). Crypto delta trading has a short shelf life, unfortunately.
You "think". Let it remain a thought for now. Same thought by ppl as of 2020.

USD Index
S&P500

USD Index
Crypto

"Market cycle".

e.g. Gold - 4%-6% in 52+wks;
Crypto - 400% - 5000% in 52+wks.

Big players are in now. Who wants out??
Grit; Knowledge; Right Mindset; All you need to overcome. KIS!
  • #1,693
  • Jun 9, 2022 6:00pm Jun 9, 2022 6:00pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I think the take away here, for crypto speculators, is that the crypto market as we know it today is not going to be around much longer, and those traders should not expect their trading advantage to be long-term (unlike the "magic" of Forex trading knowledge and skills). Crypto delta trading has a short shelf life, unfortunately.
Anything could happen, liquidity is a major issue in crypto futures indeed so let’s make hay while the sun shines.

But

Delta works perhaps even better on US Indy’s so creating a dual income stream here is just smart.

Also

Forex trading on retail trading platforms isn’t looking too great either, London trading session is very disappointing over the last 12 months - it forced me to move to other trading markets and ask the question.

Isn’t trading markets that have less absorption just a smarter idea?
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,694
  • Jun 9, 2022 6:07pm Jun 9, 2022 6:07pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote}
I think the take away here, for crypto speculators, is that the crypto market as we know it today is not going to be around much longer, and those traders should not expect their trading advantage to be long-term (unlike the "magic" of Forex trading knowledge and skills). Crypto delta trading has a short shelf life, unfortunately.

Cheers GEfx, appreciate your input AND outlook.
  • #1,695
  • Jun 9, 2022 6:09pm Jun 9, 2022 6:09pm
I know I only post what I trade (GBPJPY) but here's another pair where the Mechanics of the Market still reign supreme.


(I had to smile when i saw this morning the NY session last night for GJ, will drum up a last chart as will prob move from Mechanics to Maths and expansions from BW now)

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,696
  • Edited 7:07pm Jun 9, 2022 6:16pm | Edited 7:07pm
Perhaps a discussion on whether there's any advantage to the retail trader with this much higher daily %change.

Give details how and what specific advantages have made a difference to your trading?

Edit - For value speculators, the long tail over/under-valuation in much higher volatility becomes an issue.
Know what you trade
  • #1,697
  • Jun 9, 2022 6:38pm Jun 9, 2022 6:38pm
Quoting TimeTells
I know I only post what I trade (GBPJPY) but here's another pair where the Mechanics of the Market still reign supreme. (I had to smile when i saw this morning the NY session last night for GJ, will drum up a last chart as will prob move from Mechanics to Maths and expansions from BW now) . {image}
Hi Pete, this post sums it up.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...29#post3713829
Know what you trade
  • #1,698
  • Jun 9, 2022 7:09pm Jun 9, 2022 7:09pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
Hi Pete, this post sums it up.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...29#post3713829

Cheers Jason,

And thank you again for another very interesting link.

(I read some of CPs posts when I first started on FF 4 years ago but of course they went straight over my head lol as a newcomer back then).


What I find fascinating is the very things folks are still thinking about now & having difficulty with in currency trading were discussed years and years ago,
in the case of YOUR link TWELVE years ago.


(To hear some traders say things like you guys are living in the past is very close-minded when clearly forex hasn’t changed much at all,
just the ways some traders go about their trading to FEND OFF the situation of being unable to see the big picture, and losing,
to then hopefully have an a/c get to breakeven, and then move to a situation where a profit-taking can eventually occur.)
  • #1,699
  • Jun 9, 2022 7:22pm Jun 9, 2022 7:22pm
I just had to smile again when i saw this morning what the NY session last night did on GJ.
I have drummed up a last chart from yesterday showing the New York, New York stuff
As we hopefully move from the Mechanics TO some Maths ideas & overviews and Market Expansions from BW now.


(Cheers again for your encouragement in my maths, Jason,
and folks should understand I neither asked you for, nor did you provide, ANY formula information from your private work and so it should be,
you were merely adamant that folks should open themselves up to possibility and CHASE what they can themselves find,
thus any formula is irrelevant when it is the mind of the trader that should be expanded)


No point really now in posting the GJ, each and every morning, as the Mechanics are always the same.
It's just the dimensions & timings of the intra-day movements, which vary, like the pea is moved in a pea & shell game.

All the best to all for the end of week Friday.

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM15 mystery mayhem mechanics and maths.png Size: 14 KB
  • #1,700
  • Jun 9, 2022 9:44pm Jun 9, 2022 9:44pm
(GJ this morning, 20 pips was offered up, which direction ? why ? which target ? was there then Inflection ?)

anyways

the Pea & Shell game (imho)
that currency traders will have to contend with, at some stage in their trading career

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post13994985

The first 90 seconds of the video (shows me) how I think the market is run and, if so, maybe why so many traders get tangled up,
when an Indi doesn’t see the pea under the shell that it would be expected to be under (ie price does not go in the direction IT SHOULD)

Yet price often often DOES, a little later

This is only an analogy of how I see Forex, but I am now always on the look out for what I call ‘sleight of hand’ potential

Which often shows up as a Fake N Flip (especially at, or just after, Session opens)
(ie price goes up/down when it really wants to go down/up)

Once an FnF is over, price then resumes normality
(of course the other trick played is when it DOESN’T do a Fake N Flip,
how can we know which, pls tell me when you find out, I just use observational experience)

It’s just Forex, Mechanics & Behaviour

But once price has (maybe done an FNF, and) LEFT an Inflection Area in a genuine move
then
TARGETS are the next thing to come into play imo

all the best


Maths Expansions & Targets ?
BW has more idea on this than me
(and I have usually closed my trades earlier and therefore forfeit the FULL runs)
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