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Flying Dutchman

  • #1,601
  • Edited Jun 5, 2022 1:23am Jun 4, 2022 10:56pm | Edited Jun 5, 2022 1:23am
Back to trading talk.

Lines and/or volume delta.

That's the dispute.

Ofc I checked out both.

Here're the facts.

Both lines and delta are not always congruent.

This means there can be missed trading opportunities. Missed opportunities by count and missed opportunities by pips. Fact.

Do your own research to find out how many missed trading opportunities if,
1. Trade delta,
2. Trade lines,
3. Trade lines with delta. Does delta help? Yes. Is there alternative?

What is your personal trading goal each trading session?
How much effort you plan to invest for each trading session?
Define your needs.

Match the above to your research about missed opportunities and how much effort to achieve your goal.

Make your decision based on collated facts.

It comes down to what the trader decides to sacrifice to fit his goal.
First find out the facts what's the sacrifice we face. Can't have both. What's the best middle ground? You get these answers by YOUR research work. (If I told you the answers I'm sure someone disagree that spark another quarrel.)

Edit - additional decisions if,
1. contrarian strategy or trend following strategy suit you.
2. Scalping, swing trading or position trading.

Edit - By reverse engineer your choice, your trading goal and circumstance can be revealed.
Know what you trade
  • #1,602
  • Edited Jun 5, 2022 12:37am Jun 4, 2022 11:29pm | Edited Jun 5, 2022 12:37am
Thanks BWilliam
Practice and practice
Hope i get it correct based on previous post you explain before.

on 2nd chart (mine):
Magenta horizontal line is my daily open line
Yellow vertical line is my 1 hour before frankfurt open line.

If 1 hour before Frankfurt open line is ABOVE today open line, the most probable direction is UP.
If 1 hour before Frankfurt open line is BELOW today open line, the most probable direction is DOWN.

if not wrong (based my own reticular formation) the next homework is where to entri ? (if my direction assesment right)
educated guess based on probability what could happen and what could NOT happen

on 3rd chart i change the background, pardon

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post13392550 (post 1.386)

all the best
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  • #1,603
  • Edited 11:57pm Jun 4, 2022 11:44pm | Edited 11:57pm
Quoting BWilliam
Back to trading talk. It comes down to what the trader decides to sacrifice to fit his goal. First find out the facts what's the sacrifice we face. Can't have both. What's the best middle ground? You get these answers by YOUR research work. (If I told you the answers I'm sure someone disagree that spark another quarrel.) Edit - additional decisions if, 1. contrarian strategy or trend following strategy suit you. 2. Scalping, swing trading or position trading.
Correct, we can't have both.

I learn no to be in the middle.
and based on my style it is better choose only one and that is LINE BASED, still do my side
Thaaanks brother
  • #1,604
  • Jun 5, 2022 2:34am Jun 5, 2022 2:34am
What is the chance of hitting low on Monday? I will say 1000%. Anybody? 50%?
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  • #1,605
  • Jun 5, 2022 2:47am Jun 5, 2022 2:47am
Low of the previous week or Fridays low?
  • #1,606
  • Jun 5, 2022 3:14am Jun 5, 2022 3:14am
Friday's low
  • #1,607
  • Jun 5, 2022 4:06pm Jun 5, 2022 4:06pm
If someone would like to see real magic .... pop over to our sister thread....

Although there was no volume as expressed by Ryu on a chart presented to him by Pete, so no trade could be placed or closed, the candles were still printing.

Think about that.
  • #1,608
  • Jun 5, 2022 8:18pm Jun 5, 2022 8:18pm
Quoting moodybot
If someone would like to see real magic .... pop over to our sister thread.... Although there was no volume as expressed by Ryu on a chart presented to him by Pete, so no trade could be placed or closed, the candles were still printing. Think about that.
As I wrote earlier the delta strategy in the manner it's used has no scalability. It does work with the right market condition like cryptos exchange. It means traders can't trade the strategy with gbpjpy or eurcad as examples. It also won't work well with btcusd traded with forex brokers or btcm2.
Know what you trade
  • #1,609
  • Jun 5, 2022 8:30pm Jun 5, 2022 8:30pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} As I wrote earlier the delta strategy in the manner it's used has no scalability. It does work with the right market condition like cryptos exchange. It means traders can't trade the strategy with gbpjpy or eurcad as examples. It also won't work well with btcusd traded with forex brokers.
Fairly limited then. Niche market and trading conditions, not for standard Forex or Brokers. Perhaps the thread is in the wrong section of FF!
  • #1,610
  • Jun 5, 2022 9:23pm Jun 5, 2022 9:23pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
As I wrote earlier the delta strategy in the manner it's used has no scalability.
It does work with the right market condition like cryptos exchange.
It means traders can't trade the strategy with gbpjpy or eurcad as examples.
It also won't work well with btcusd traded with forex brokers or btcm2.

Hi Jason,

You ALWAYS add stimulation of thought in your posts, so again welcome back sir.


"In the manner it is used"
correct.


delta has been promoted in some circles, not just on FF, as being a mysterious piece of information that will change the trading world and should be utilised.


So IF we will now go through and discuss delta
in regards to a candle or cumulative delta (groups of candles)

it might be best if we could all agree on a simple starting defintion that all traders might quickly grasp
so that we can have inputs and questions from posters from all stages of forex learning.

For me, as you say in my GJ, it is not necessary or could even be disruptive to trading that pair (disrupt my focus I mean),
as this pair likes to fake n flip and then just run for the sweet targets all lined up sitting & waiting (like already this morning ).


For myself I could always easily see the delta of a single GJ candle on the one min chart with my eyes as the candle formed.

When we talk about cumulative delta, say over one hour
would a single one hour candle delta provide us with less or the same delta info as 60 x 1min candles delta that make up that one hour candle.

I guess for a trader it would be whether we trade one or many candles combined to form a larger candle (ie 5min, 15min etc)

I'm finsihed with my GJ trades already & done for the morning, I will look in again in the leadup to Franky.


How might a trader best use delta visually in their trading or is it BEST they have software to provide this?

As always Jason your thoughts & views are appreciated.
  • #1,611
  • Jun 5, 2022 9:27pm Jun 5, 2022 9:27pm
Quoting moodybot
If someone would like to see real magic .... pop over to our sister thread.... Although there was no volume as expressed by Ryu on a chart presented to him by Pete, so no trade could be placed or closed, the candles were still printing. Think about that.
Maybe I better explain it in plain English.

There is always a base level of low liquidity that is basically directionless, then we get liquidity that attempts to push price bullish or bearish. Any trader that wants to make money needs to estimate how dense this liquidity may be and the best way to perform this task is by measuring volume levels.

So the amount of volume required for most crypto markets is around $100k of sales per minute - which shows the high probability of a breakout move making money for the trader is very high.

Putting the numbers together, any move that shows at least a 29% delta direction that’s supported by a average volume of $100K per minute will VERY likely be in green pips within seconds.

Yesterday on Crypto, many of the markets were sitting at 1/4 of the required volume to substain high probability trades - we didn’t trade. This was the position we were faced yesterday when Ryuryu made his comments.

Basically untradable.

Then it happened, around 8pm last night Brisbane time, three pairs obtained volume numbers that were acceptable.


The three amigo’s jumped on the charts and GAME on.
The best pairs were GSTUSDT / OPUSPT and GMTUSDT and a few others weren’t bad. Volume levels increased up to $300K a minute, a few of the spikes when 15% in a single 1 minute candle.

I tell you, this is better than sex.


By 1am, I was done but the the other two were still hungry. I was looking at the result tally’s while laying in bed this morning and they weren’t bad.

A combined effort somewhere around 14% for the group, Ryu lead the way as usual because the guy eats, breaths crypto trading.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,612
  • Jun 5, 2022 9:38pm Jun 5, 2022 9:38pm
Quoting RickM
{quote}
Then it happened, around 8pm last night Brisbane time, three pairs obtained volume numbers that were acceptable.
I tell you, this is better than sex.
By 1am, I was done but the the other two were still hungry.

Hi Rick,

Cheers pal lol.

Crikey 8pm to 1AM = five hours

You guys must be on the viagra .


I was in and out in 42 minutes this morning on GBPJPY with the days takings pocketed.

all the best
  • #1,613
  • Jun 5, 2022 9:48pm Jun 5, 2022 9:48pm
Hi All,

Looking at the GBP/JPY chart it seems that price is trying to move lower as we are seeing LHs being formed. Its just Asia session so anything can happen. Price is also trading entirely below the Daily Open. Those trading Asia session could have made around 30 odd pips after the first Monday LH was formed just after an hours trading. Target could have been previous Daily Low or for aggressive traders maybe the 163 Round Number. Couple of LHs have already formed during Asia session. Its just an observation and i am just starting out so hoping for some more input from TimeTells, Moodybot and other experienced traders. i am not placing any trades as yet cos still in the learning process and also have seen that most traders don't normally trade Asia session and wait for atleast Frankfurt open.

Happy Trading all.
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  • #1,614
  • Jun 5, 2022 10:01pm Jun 5, 2022 10:01pm
Quoting whitesta
Hi All, Looking at the GBP/JPY chart it seems that price is trying to move lower as we are seeing LHs being formed. Its just Asia session so anything can happen. Price is also trading entirely below the Daily Open. Those trading Asia session could have made around 30 odd pips after the first Monday LH was formed just after an hours trading. Target could have been previous Daily Low or for aggressive traders maybe the 163 Round Number. Couple of LHs have already formed during Asia session. Its just an observation and i am just...

Hi W,

Great summation sir.

Yes the first clue of a return down was after the pin bar daily from Friday which we saw on opening.

Then it was a matter of, in this first stanza, would the market participants want to trade above or below the no-nonsense Daily Open Line.


After that, and pretty quickly, it took out around seven Targets I reckon (I don't count them, I trade them)
which had all been set up & just waiting from the price drive upwards last week.

All set up & waiting - and known in advance.


This morning on GBPJPY was Textbook Market Mechanics & Market Behaviour

Waiting now to see what they do into the Franky & then London opening. No urgency, the market will show us.


The GJ trading this morning was just about "going for it".

NO delta necessary.

No problems waiting in line for any Volume to become available.

Straight shooting Forex Currency Trading.
  • #1,615
  • Jun 5, 2022 10:30pm Jun 5, 2022 10:30pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi W, Great summation sir. Yes the first clue of a return down was after the pin bar daily from Friday which we saw on opening. Then it was a matter of, in this first stanza, would the market participants want to trade above or below the no-nonsense Daily Open Line. After that, and pretty quickly, it took out around seven Targets I reckon (I don't count them, I trade them) which had all been set up & just waiting from the price drive upwards last week. All set up & waiting - and known in advance. This morning on GBPJPY was Textbook Market...
Hi Timetells,

Thanks for the info. Sorry i did not take a look at the daily pin bar. Another hint taken (always look at the longer timeframe). Yes there were quite a few targets once the price decided to go down. Also if the price shows what is trying to do then we can also trade the Asia open.
  • #1,616
  • Jun 5, 2022 10:31pm Jun 5, 2022 10:31pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Maybe I better explain it in plain English. There is always a base level of low liquidity that is basically directionless, then we get liquidity that attempts to push price bullish or bearish. Any trader that wants to make money needs to estimate how dense this liquidity may be and the best way to perform this task is by measuring volume levels. So the amount of volume required for most crypto markets is around $100k of sales per minute - which shows the high probability of a breakout move making money for the trader is very high. Putting...
Better than sex Rick?

If you rolled the condom down to the end you'll find the hidden serial number, but for that you'll need more volume..
  • #1,617
  • Jun 5, 2022 10:57pm Jun 5, 2022 10:57pm
Expand on this "wait for the market to show".

The thrust candle heading towards Tokyo open is when the market showed that Asia market will trade below DOL. That's what we wait for, as an example. The south target is Target3. We don't trade UNTIL the market tells us. Once we know the intent we wait for a "target" to hop in the direction of the intent.

What I want to point out is there are 2 levels of waiting. Got to be patient.
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Know what you trade
  • #1,618
  • Jun 5, 2022 11:02pm Jun 5, 2022 11:02pm
Quoting whitesta
{quote}
Hi Timetells, Thanks for the info. Sorry i did not take a look at the daily pin bar.
Another hint taken (always look at the longer timeframe).
Yes there were quite a few targets once the price decided to go down.
Also if the price shows what is trying to do then we can also trade the Asia open.

Hi W,

Everything about a pair is a composite (ie made up of several moving parts) and our charts dont really exist, our platform separates them into timeframes for us and where, because of that nature, it is all fractal.

Myself I use the 1 DY chart as my first outlook in the morning just to see what has happened. Not for trading tho. (The pin bar is also an illusion of sorts, as really what formed the Pb, if you look back at Friday it was when those 2 x 15 min candles ran above and then below the Prev Mth Hi which was the real clue - but it was NYork as usual and i was asleep here in Oz lol).

Then during each day I will compare the 1 DY structure to the 1 hr structure as, at times, BOTH the 1dy & 1hr are pointed (if you know what I mean) in the same direction and that is trading gold from the pullbacks to the next target. If the two are 'out of whack' then i see it as 'trading for range' day both up & down is possible with the smaller targets in between. This relationship between the 1dy and 1hr can also change its dynamic during the day so keep looking especially just BEFORE a trade. I only enter my trades on the 1 min candles and I can write a little about that later if you wish.

ASIA. It depends on the pair you trade imho. If I was trading CADCHF then I would not be interested in Asia as NO major centre would be open but with GJ I know that Tokyo is in operation and it then becomes possible (usually AFTER any Yen news which in Oz often prints at 9:50am, check your OWN times but you will see the Yen news on the FF front screen). I do not trade ANY news direction of course .... OR ... against any news direction (as often is the best way lol for some reason) ... I will only trade what the MARKET is doing and that is often after a 'settling down' period from news about 30 minutes is best. 9 out 10 times I trade WITH the market (the 1 out of 10 option is another topic entirely lol).

Now everything I do is a guestimate based on probability and past experience. It works out okay lol. So if we assume that the GJ has rolled over now, we might be foolish just NOW to continue dumping in sells, who knows not me. As we have discussed before the market needs to recalibrate (BWilliam is an expert on this, mathematically, and he might discuss this in some of his future posts if we can keep him interested in being here) and while you & I don't need to know what recalibration means entirely, I see it as ... IF the market is driving down, then it will (must ?) pull back up at some point before it can go down again. LOL. Hope that makes sense, it does to me .

So if they recalibrate GJ it might (who knows) go back up and test the Day Open line again (I have a maths line, sorry BW just the one this time, sitting at 163.347 which they might rotate around but it doesn't matter).

As a trader I never know what the market will do. BUT when it does it, I am prepared for it in either an UP or DOWN move (as there is ALWAYS a Target sitting BOTH above and below current price at ANY one time). That is the best I can do as trader who is not pulling the strings if you know what I mean.

all the best W

(edit: W, I would recommend you pay as much attention as you can to what BW says regarding intent.)
  • #1,619
  • Jun 5, 2022 11:03pm Jun 5, 2022 11:03pm
Quoting BWilliam
Expand on this "wait for the market to show". The thrust candle heading towards Tokyo open is when the market showed that Asia market will trade below DOL. That's what we wait for, as an example. The south target is Target3. We don't trade UNTIL the market tells us. Once we know the intent we wait for a "target" to get in the direction of the intent. What I want to point out is there are 2 levels of waiting. Got to be patient. {image}

Cheers, lovely.
  • #1,620
  • Jun 6, 2022 12:50am Jun 6, 2022 12:50am
Just look US500 today, Wednesday and Thursday low will be broken
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