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Flying Dutchman

  • #1,521
  • Jun 2, 2022 1:41am Jun 2, 2022 1:41am
Quoting bluesteele
{image} {quote} . . Where is the Matirx ? well it lies between highs lows opens closes.. Simple. But it is constantly changing yet always the same. Now if you see it the markets work in cycles of 3...3 hours 3 days 3 levels etc... APPLIED OBSERVATION tells us that. BRNs... 00s 25s 50s 75s 00s,,,,,, back and forth grabbing liquidity from the extremes day in and day out. What is the job of each session...its to take out the high or low of the...

Oh ... fresh reminder and thaaaank you Mr. Blue Ice
and TimeTell and Moodyboot getting more sharp and more succint.

And my English become more hot.
I am potato
NOT trader

Best Regards
GEORGE and GANG

THANKS
  • #1,522
  • Edited 2:25am Jun 2, 2022 1:58am | Edited 2:25am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Three.....the sacred number! Why would three be so important within financial circles! M.
No idea, yet
But the rule is clear :

ALL OF YOUR STOP LOSS ARE BELONG TO THREE

or

I'M THE BULL, THE BEAR AND IN BETWEEN ( a.k.a the SPACE) AS ONE

is it COINCIDENCE that George use THREE moving average on THREE timeframe regarding direction probability (as an edge)

OR
the more price change, the more its stay the same
Understanding market structure is a fundamental part of proper Fib calculations
I'm nut
Typing better

Happy peepz
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  • #1,523
  • Jun 2, 2022 3:45am Jun 2, 2022 3:45am
Quoting bluesteele
Just reading the charts.. TIME PRICE .. Lines momentum... Micro double tops bottoms etc... And of course the most important ingredient for successful trading.... MINDSET ! I traded this live along Tom in his Telegram.. all time-stamped all real. No volume or delta needed to make a decent living...only a chart...but first you have to learn how to read it...not many know how to do that let alone control your mindset... https://youtu.be/RUjk6patAgs
Only very few can read the naked charts real time.....skill that once learnt can never unlearn or accept any other BS from anyone.
Whatever Cumulative delta shows can visibly shown on the candles/levels for the trained eyes.
on a postive roll...
  • #1,524
  • Jun 2, 2022 3:57am Jun 2, 2022 3:57am
Quoting Rmg
{quote} Only very few can read the naked charts real time.....skill that once learnt can never unlearn or accept any other BS from anyone. Whatever Cumulative delta shows can visibly shown on the candles/levels for the trained eyes.
Very much so.
Pete has been showing the Cumulative Delta on his charts and it usually matches previously set targets that are blindly ignored by those wearing blinkers.
Some just can’t accept the obvious.
  • #1,525
  • Jun 2, 2022 4:03am Jun 2, 2022 4:03am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Very much so. Pete has been showing the Cumulative Delta on his charts and it usually matches previously set targets that are blindly ignored by those wearing blinkers. Some just can’t accept the obvious.
It's possible to read the intent of future cumulative delta before any trade is executed. The "algo math" is already predetermined. This means cumulative delta is way behind the curve in the info queue.
Know what you trade
  • #1,526
  • Jun 2, 2022 4:19am Jun 2, 2022 4:19am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} It's possible to read the intent of future cumulative delta before any trade is executed. The "algo math" is already predetermined. This means cumulative delta is way behind the curve in the info queue.
Good to see you BWilliam, your input has been missed.
  • #1,527
  • Jun 2, 2022 4:59am Jun 2, 2022 4:59am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Good to see you BWilliam, your input has been missed.
Hi Andy, I've been reading quietly the to and fro.

The volume and cumulative delta folks believe their "data based" approach falls under the cause and effect argument which is deterministc. (Not exactly true when we examine it in detail.)

Therefore, by extension of this same cause and effect argument, all other methods class under lines has no logical basis. Again, not exactly true.

In fact, math-wise, both cumulative delta and lines approach fail to fulfil the criteria under cause and effect math. At best, they come under correlation math which may or may not be causal. Meaning they're both the same, not one better than the other - there's correlation or none. Earlier, I posted a video of the criteria required to qualify for valid correlation for this purpose.

Here we see how belief lead to the traders rigid point of view excluding all else.
Know what you trade
  • #1,528
  • Jun 2, 2022 5:43am Jun 2, 2022 5:43am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Andy, I've been reading quietly the to and fro. The volume and cumulative delta folks believe their "data based" approach falls under the cause and effect argument which is deterministc. (Not exactly true when we examine it in detail.) Therefore, by extension of this same cause and effect argument, all other methods class under lines has no logical basis. Again, not exactly true. In fact, math-wise, both cumulative delta and lines approach fail to fulfil the criteria under cause and effect math. At best, they come under correlation math...
Thanks BW.
My own assessment over the last few has shown me, beyond all doubt, that the market is a mathematical Algo. I can’t tell you why, I couldn’t really explain it, but seeing the same setup time and time again and along with Petes own findings, it’s too much of a coincidence.
The other party believes that we draw lines without looking at data, that cannot be further from the truth.
I personally cannot predict a future time and price point, I do however know to a reasonable accuracy a useable start point to trade.
I think that I speak for various people on here who through your thought provoking posts, have looked outside the box and are starting to make decent headway.
This thread is a better place when you are able to post and it would be great to have you around again.

Andy.
  • #1,529
  • Jun 2, 2022 5:48am Jun 2, 2022 5:48am
Just add some real life PeterCaleb salt, and you will be profitable even with dull money management. You just need less exposure.
Thanks
  • #1,530
  • Jun 2, 2022 6:28am Jun 2, 2022 6:28am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
The volume and cumulative delta folks believe their "data based" approach falls under the cause and effect argument which is deterministc.
(Not exactly true when we examine it in detail.)
Meaning they're both the same, not one better than the other - there's correlation or none.
Earlier, I posted a video of the criteria required to qualify for valid correlation for this purpose.
Here we see how belief lead to the traders rigid point of view excluding all else.

Absolutely BW, and welcome back, sir.


The delving into the Volume & Delta subject has never really been dissected in detail as I guess only those that require it to trade think much about it.

However,
if the Volume and the Delta on, let’s say, Candle A closes as “xy”, then Candle A of course can never be traded as until it completes & closes,
its full volume and delta data cannot be known in “advance”.

So it would have to be Candle B (or C) that is the candle actually traded, but based on the old delta/vol DATA from the original Candle A.


So it would have to be some form of magic (wink) to know in advance that Candle B or C,
that is to be NOW traded,
would NOT itself complete its new Volume or Delta data and do a FLIP OVER into a reverse directional trade,
being opposite in direction now from the data from the original Candle A (which is well & truly a dead & past candle).

(as delta-vol can only provide a suggestion for an upcoming trade)


And if such a delta-vol flip should happen while a trader continues with their original direction trade based on the Candle A data,
could see the Candle A decision trade go into Drawdown.

How deep into drawdown would be based on the pain tolerance of the trader.

But let’s not go down that path.


Traders. Well we ALL trade the market as we view the market based on our OWN long term observations, studies & data
which provide us a resultant Implied Probability for the success of that trade.

So risk management and risk parameter profiles must also be involved in the decision making process of our trade.


There is no ONE way is the right way to trade and certainly not one way is the only way to trade a market.


Therefore any novice statement such as someone else’s trading method is bullsh!t

is in itself … horsesh!t

making the original commenter of “the b/s comment” a very long way from understanding the markets (any market).


But trading is what we do so, good fortunes to all.

Again, welcome back BW.
  • #1,531
  • Jun 2, 2022 7:01am Jun 2, 2022 7:01am
Which one is worse b/s or h/s? There is similarity (correlation, common characteristics) in every sh*t.
Cheers TimewillTell
  • #1,532
  • Jun 2, 2022 7:04am Jun 2, 2022 7:04am
Quoting Ihlas
Which one is worse b/s or h/s?
There is similarity (correlation, common characteristics) in every sh*t.
Cheers TimewillTell

Hahaa, well it is usually just from the one trader so the correlation is very strong.

cheers Ih, all the best
  • #1,533
  • Jun 2, 2022 8:03am Jun 2, 2022 8:03am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hahaa, well it is usually just from the one trader so the correlation is very strong. cheers Ih, all the best
It's all about right questionFor instance: Full of sh#t > Piece of sh#t, the question is why. Because piece is element of full.
  • #1,534
  • Jun 2, 2022 8:33am Jun 2, 2022 8:33am
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/11...nt-kinds-of-bs

Different kinds of BS
  • #1,535
  • Jun 2, 2022 12:38pm Jun 2, 2022 12:38pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Absolutely BW, and welcome back, sir. The delving into the Volume & Delta subject has never really been dissected in detail as I guess only those that require it to trade think much about it. However, if the Volume and the Delta on, let’s say, Candle A closes as “xy”, then Candle A of course can never be traded as until it completes & closes, its full volume and delta data cannot be known in “advance”. So it would have to be Candle B (or C) that is the candle actually traded, but based on the old delta/vol DATA from the original Candle A....
Hi Pete, for whatever reason the group of traders on this thread don't need cumulative volume delta to make their trading decision. It's just been a hard sell by them volume folks. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #1,536
  • Jun 2, 2022 1:00pm Jun 2, 2022 1:00pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Pete, for whatever reason the group of traders on this thread don't need cumulative volume delta to make their trading decision. It's just been a hard sell by them volume folks. Cheers
Good to see you BW...

Just another excellent day today...trading the SPX low with high probability setups....will post charts later. Funny how volume does not even figure in my head...as it's absolutely 100% unnecessary ...

Cheers !
Markets are Mirrors,,Mastery of craft is mastery of self
  • #1,537
  • Jun 2, 2022 6:21pm Jun 2, 2022 6:21pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
Hi Pete, for whatever reason the group of traders on this thread don't need cumulative volume delta to make their trading decision.
It's just been a hard sell by them volume folks. Cheers

Hi Jason,

The only reason I can envisage for that is, and I will say it again ...


"There is no ONE way is the right way to trade,
and certainly not one way is the only way to trade a market.

all the best
Pete
  • #1,538
  • Jun 2, 2022 7:26pm Jun 2, 2022 7:26pm
Quoting TimeTells
{image}

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  • #1,539
  • Edited 11:19pm Jun 2, 2022 11:07pm | Edited 11:19pm
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Well where does one start...

3 pushes...3 level pushes... 3 days...3 hours ..3's there's your first hint.

Some thoughts to ponder..... Quant firms spend hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars on their traders and algos.
Massive amounts of money for the very very brightest and the very very best algos...

One would have to be a fool to think they can recreate an algo to trade like them...

So what is one to do ? well first is observe a blank chart....as everything you need to know is displayed with a
basic candlestick chart... It is price.. That is what we buy and sell everything off of....Our trade explorers our history shows price in
and price out....

Now when one has spent enough time analyzing charts,,,trading etc...
One hopefully learns Price behaviour....Market structure....The psychology of the charts....
AS CHARTS ARE NOTHING MORE THAN A RATIONAL REPRESENTAION OF HUMAN BEHAVIOR.....
THEY ALWAYS HAVE AND ALWAYS WILL.....

That is why take a chart from 50 yrs ago....remove both axis and asset name and one would not know that chart wasnt from today.

SO NOTHING NEW !

So with observation and experience one begins to notice patterns....or we learn from others...both good....
These patterns are rational.... Rational that can be programmed by the very elite...But one has to remember that no matter
how much money these quants have for R&D... Our brains work faster and better WITH EXPERIENCE...... big caveat...

Why do I use Monthly weekly daily and session highs and Lows...Because the Algos do... Why do I use fibs...Because the Algos do....
Why do I use Time of Day...Because the Algos do....
Why do the Algos use these...Because the charts are a representation of rational human behavior.......

Just like an Insurance Actuary....I can predict with a high probability an action to take.. I cant predict the outcome individually...
I can only execute my process. And the numbers will work out on scale.

So heres a chart of the SPX today...as I posted earlier was a great day.

I like to trade from extremes... Highs and lows... The chart shows Asia sets a high and a low...UK takes out Asia high...
THen US takes out Asia Low...Then takes out UK high... THis is a never ending repeating pattern.. Market mechanics...

So off the US equity open we have a 3 level push that hits and takes out the weekly low by half a pt....
that in itself witht he 3 level push is a high prob setup for long.....
THen we have that low come at the 12th 5M candle... At the 12th 5M candle of the US open it gives us a 70% probability that the high or low of the
day has been set,
3 level push...Weekly low...12th candle from open.... BINGO BINGO BINGO>>> GO LONG HARD....

All of what I mention is exactly what the Algos are trading and doing...

Now where will the trade go ????

Well by the 18th 5M bar there is an 80% chance the high or low of the day is set in stone....
Probabilities tell me the 12th bar was the low and its set in stone...
Now once price starts trading outside of my box...
I know with a 90% certainty that price will hit 127...
70% certainty price hits 161
60% certainty price does a measured 2x move of the 18 bar US open box..

All of this was traded by the quants ... How do I know ?

Well all of these numbers and probabilities have been backtested over 30 yrs of data.
They are as solid as it comes...These are the hard numbers of the market....and years of
viewing PA around these LINES TIMES PRICE LEVELS FIBS ETC tells us what is happening..
All of this is used by seasoned indice traders and others. One just needs to know where to look to discover these FACTS.
The fibs I have gone back years by hand analyzing every single US session...

I know that at the US open there is a 20% chance price takes off in one direction...That's once a week....
Do you think the Quants algos open a feeler trade with a 20% chance?? you bet they do and when price starts
moving past the 12th to18th+bar.... positions are being added onto continuously thus driving up the price rapidly....
No need for volume to understand any of this..Is it useful sure is yep...
But 100% not necessary for a retail trader that can read a chart
and has a full and comprehensive understanding of market structure and psychology.

So to the AMATEURS that like too PooPoo lines LOL.... You truly havent a clue yet...
But with time and an open mind you can learn... And I wish all well,,,,,

Cheers
Blue

EDIT take notice of chart on top.... as I just stated in a recent previous post of the GJ pay attention to 00s 25s 50s 75s 00s the Algos do

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Markets are Mirrors,,Mastery of craft is mastery of self
  • #1,540
  • Jun 3, 2022 1:38am Jun 3, 2022 1:38am
Quoting bluesteele
{image} Well where does one start... 3 pushes...3 level pushes... 3 days...3 hours ..3's there's your first hint. Some thoughts to ponder..... Quant firms spend hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars on their traders and algos. Massive amounts of money for the very very brightest and the very very best algos... One would have to be a fool to think they can recreate an algo to trade like them... So what is one to do ? well first is observe a blank chart....as everything you need to know is displayed with a basic candlestick chart... It is price.....
Kev, that’s one of the best posts that I have ever seen on Forex Factory
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