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  • #1,321
  • May 10, 2022 3:39pm May 10, 2022 3:39pm
10 pairs that I'm now watching for reversals.
When I see a reversal, I'll post them up.
It takes a few days, most likely confirmed by Friday.
There may be more but 10 is enough.
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  • #1,322
  • Edited 5:41pm May 10, 2022 5:30pm | Edited 5:41pm
Cheers Rick, and I can't quote a deleted post of course, but yes in a way the Daily Open line will be the markets magnet,

which for those that will understand my analogy could be a positive (+) or negative (-) POLARITY, at any point in time.


But this is ONLY one part of the market pea & shell game and why many currency traders have difficulties,
even while knowing the where of price .... but not comprehending the how/why.

There is also another good volume thread that resurfaced the other day, somewhere on FF I noticed, based on the premise that
"volume leads price"
which then leads us to the question, that I and many Market Structure/Behaviour traders ask is
if,

volume leads price, then WHERE is it leading it to

the answer to that, imho,
is it is leading to the set Targets, that the market runs, day in day out, time after time on ALL timeframes (ie its fractal)


I will post below an hourly structural chart, this time (not my one minute trading charts),

and while I also assess the Daily chart (where the day open line is easily visible as the "O" on the OHLC candle that is the daily candle)

When trading Targets a trader must not, again just imo, be rigid in their view that ... what is happening will continue to happen ad infinitum.
As this is not the case at all, and this is where many reversal-only traders might get caught in a grinding day, of which GJ is a prime example.

It's always safest I reckon to be travelling with the "current" market direction as I see it.
NOT in what some folk or the industry call trend.
As the larger trend could be up while the current momentum could be down
AND tradeable against the larger 'trend', but still with the current smaller directional momentum at THAT time, even if against the dominant trend.

When there is an opposing current momentum to the larger (what the industry calls) trend I have found this can also create RANGE trading possibilties.


But these are simply things that Market Structure, Market Behaviour and Chart Reading Traders
know all about so I am only preaching then to the converted.

Other traders might not know these trading ways and therefore might incorrectly see what transpires as magic (for example),
where to others the probability outcomes are discernible.

But this is TRADING. And it's a minefield for the uninitiated & unprepared.

Two more things, quickly, firstly back to the Daily Open.
Grinding "periods" will often be when the market drives away from the Open.
The Market might well do this over two or three consecutive days, once the prior ranging rotations around the Opens are exhausted.

A Trader needs to be aware and cognisant of what the current Market Behaviour is and how it fits into Structure, and concentrated Observation is a good way.

Secondly, as well as the Opens there is also a "Fixing" time EACH day for forex currencies,
and not many traders, who maybe just get caught up in their one 'small' aspect of trading,
then foolishly think theirs is the only way to trade markets and therefore everything else is probably magic, will see.

If I ask many traders, some don't know about the Fixing or even when it takes place each day.
And for what larger financial aspect purpose it serves, than our own intraday fx trading.

SO traders, please be careful with Trading.
In my opinion it is a well designed environment where things are happening both in a micro world (one minute charts) as well as a macro world on larger timeframes.


I might refer folks to this very interesting, well I thought so, past post of BWilliam where he gave some of his own oversights into market operations.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post13932180



Anyway, here's the past 6 days of GBPJPY in a one hour format. Eminently tradeable, as is, imho.

.
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  • #1,323
  • May 11, 2022 3:54pm May 11, 2022 3:54pm
Message to BWilliam

You'll be made most welcome back onto this thread.
Checking recent history should provide you with a chuckle.

Andy
  • #1,324
  • May 11, 2022 11:38pm May 11, 2022 11:38pm
I dont like to predict the markets.. I am 90% an intra day trader 10% swing.

But heres a chart of the SPX S&P500....

I like to use measured moves/legs coupled with PA, for swing trading, as the markets tend to repeat patterns....

And DATA... I like DATA..researching DATA and developing PA trading strategies around that data.

Now this swing trade may not happen and it really doesnt matter to me if it does or doesnt..

Im only putting this up to stimulate ideas and thoughts of others.. Perhaps it sparks an idea.

In the last 75 years the SP has done approx. 25 10+% corrections.
The average correction is 14+%
Now 2022 as the market sits we are at a near 17% correction.
what is the average length in days of the correction ?
The average correction over 75 years is 133 days in length.
Today with the current ongoing SPX correction we sit at day 127.

Perhaps a rally will ensue shortly but I think it will be short lived and the market will continue down.(Magic 8BALL )

So for me Im looking for a retest as marked and to short at approx 4150 TP 3700 with a small position and adding to it as it develops.. IF IT HAPPENS..
As this trade idea is like a coin toss... I do not know if it will happen #1 and #2 if it does happen will it do as I predict?
We dont know the outcome so we take the trade if it presents itself and MANAGE RISK.

Cheers
Blue
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Markets are Mirrors,,Mastery of craft is mastery of self
  • #1,325
  • May 12, 2022 6:40pm May 12, 2022 6:40pm
Quoting TimeTells
When trading Targets a trader must not, again just imo, be rigid in their view that ... what is happening will continue to happen ad infinitum.

As this is not the case at all, and this is where many reversal-only traders might get caught in a grinding day, of which GJ is a prime example.

It's always safest I reckon to be travelling with the "current" market direction as I see it.

Grinding "periods" will often be when the market drives away from the Open.

The Market might well do this over two or three consecutive...



Market Structure & Market Behaviour

Observable, and, traded with patience, when the moment might arrive.

(An interesting Thursday again, cheers Andy/Moody )

.
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  • #1,326
  • May 14, 2022 3:43pm May 14, 2022 3:43pm
I mentioned back on Wednesday 11th that I was waiting for 10 pairs to reverse, most likely by Friday 13th.

6 have confirmed for me now, and CHFJPY,NZDJPY,NZDUSD should confirm on Monday.

GBPNZD took one more bite to the long side with no short as yet, waiting on that pair.

I wonder what the volume was at the pivot candle that could help determine the reversal.

There is structure to the market, it can be predicted, defined and traded.

It repeats!

There have been other pairs that have reversed but I'll keep this to the original 10
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  • #1,327
  • May 15, 2022 12:33am May 15, 2022 12:33am
TimeTell and MoodyBot

THANKS for the most valuable knowledge you are imparting to everyone .. every time
  • #1,328
  • May 15, 2022 1:21am May 15, 2022 1:21am
Quoting TimeTells
Cheers Rick, and I can't quote a deleted post of course, but yes in a way the Daily Open line will be the markets magnet, which for those that will understand my analogy could be a positive (+) or negative (-) POLARITY, at any point in time. But this is ONLY one part of the market pea & shell game and why many currency traders have difficulties, even while knowing the where of price .... but not comprehending the how/why. There is also another good volume thread that resurfaced the other day, somewhere on FF I noticed, based on the premise that...

George, MoodyBot, TimeTell and BWilliams teachs us to how teachs ourself, and how to trade.
We learn to discern how they thinking while they trading. They are not teacher or guru. They are the massanger.

Hope my grammar correct
While ...
IMHO .. im not trader, BUT waiter while learning being boundless
  • #1,329
  • May 15, 2022 1:51am May 15, 2022 1:51am
Quoting deanyakobs
{quote} George, MoodyBot, TimeTell and BWilliams teachs us to how teachs ourself, and how to trade. We learn to discern how they thinking while they trading. They are not teacher or guru. They are the massanger. Hope my grammar correct While ... IMHO .. im not trader, BUT waiter while learning being boundless
Everyone is different, everyone has a different mind set. I tried a great many ideas, brain stormed with some great people, still do, however not one of us could trade the others method. That’s why so many fail having purchased the next best thing. It might actually work, for the provider, but unless you can get into someone else’s mind, it’s really difficult. Take what you need, experiment, keep an open mind and make it your own.
Price moves up and down, that’s all it has ever done.
The picture cannot be taught, when you see it, you see it, and it’s different for all of us.
Pete once said when you see it, it can’t be undone.
He’s right.
  • #1,330
  • Edited 2:53am May 15, 2022 2:21am | Edited 2:53am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Everyone is different, everyone has a different mind set. I tried a great many ideas, brain stormed with some great people, still do, however not one of us could trade the others method. That’s why so many fail having purchased the next best thing. It might actually work, for the provider, but unless you can get into someone else’s mind, it’s really difficult. Take what you need, experiment, keep an open mind and make it your own. Price moves up and down, that’s all it has ever done. The picture cannot be taught, when you see it, you see...
How ONE see IT if they are not BELIEVE it ?
How u can succeed if u not believe IT ?

If one NOT believe that price chart and ALL candle are only manufactured ?

Deepest massage that George and the GANG (THAT SO GENEROUSLLY) teach about TARGET theory and mindset is learn to THINK and disect the mindset ONE that move on the pea and shell game w/ his hand.

BEHIND pea and shell game IS whats important (the cause)
and
pea and shell game itself come later (the effect)

When Moody and Time Tell wrote : ' I believe this and I believe that and so on
They are telling TRUTH

Its why Mr. G always type : Trade with VISION
WHY ? because it is UNSEEN

And Sun Tzu wrote : know your infinite weakness
What is that :
Trader have no choice other than FOLLOW and REACT
ofc, WAITING IS VIRTUE

DO PSYCHOLOGICAL BREAK DOWN FIRST (applied by MM)

RIGHT BELIEF IS MONEY

Typo here and there, ofc
please, I just learn typing English here. I'm not trader
I'm WAITER
  • #1,331
  • May 15, 2022 10:10am May 15, 2022 10:10am
What I have found is that targets, lines, rectangles, squares, triangles and any geometrical shapes including volume/delta thing even the middle line,
Elliot, Wyckoff, Hurst, Gann won’t be successful for long term without real life thing(@PeterCaleb)
Changes happen
Now I can tell targets with straight hits
Cheers
BTW moodybot, GN reversed and in the sell mode
  • #1,332
  • May 15, 2022 11:17am May 15, 2022 11:17am
Dear All, with Joe Ross mindset/theory/methodology, you must trade what you SEE,

BUT

with Mr. G mindset/theory/methodology, you must trade what you BELIEVE. FIRST
but one must throw out their previous belief.
Why ?

cause no one can serve two master

Different trader has different mindset, THEN different methodology.
We can't measure the voltage with a power meter (perspective).

its why theres soooo much conflict and confusion a.k.a discussion and forum about trading

The not so so good is we are UN-aware.

then

blind leading the blind
while pretend to be wizards


Hope my English get better here
Thanks FF
  • #1,333
  • May 15, 2022 1:30pm May 15, 2022 1:30pm
Quoting moodybot
10 pairs that I'm now watching for reversals. When I see a reversal, I'll post them up. It takes a few days, most likely confirmed by Friday. There may be more but 10 is enough. {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
Very like your clean chart. Could you pls share the indi you use on this chart to the right or show the link where to get it pls.
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  • #1,334
  • Edited 3:48pm May 15, 2022 3:25pm | Edited 3:48pm
Quoting ntk
{quote} Very like your clean chart. Could you pls share the indi you use on this chart to the right or show the link where to get it pls. {image}

Hi ntk

The indicator is my own EA which I use to determine if a possible reversal has taken place. By the way I cant program, ask ****, but I managed to put multipair multi-chart analysis into an EA, cross referencing previous Peak High/lows with my own take on money management and to display it onto a chart in a way that I can understand. Some of the ideas I gleaned from George, Pete, Dave , Kev and watching the usual guru's on the tube. It only took three years to get it how I wanted, no pain, no gain as they say.

I would certainly recommend researching Peak formation High/Low as a method but standalone it didn't work for me. I had to take on board my own preferred way to determine direction and whether the reversal signal was valid. After that money management plays a crucial role.
I would say safety in numbers would apply! Do you have other pairs showing agreement!!
I placed the charts up on the thread in response to a recent set of daft posts, here and elsewhere, attempting to persuade traders that standalone technical chartwork doesn't work.
Well it does for me, Pete scalps and that works for him and his charts are clear and concise, Blue works very successfully with probabilities, Dave is an excel wizard and again trades exceptionally well....one thing in common, they all draw lines, and George the best chartist that I have ever seen willing to help out on FF. Another thing they have in common, they have all put their time in to studying the charts and not one of them has used just one method. All have tailored their own.

Ihlas.... saw your post, GN still long for me but not one that I would trade as I can't be sure.

Hope all have a great week.

M.
  • #1,335
  • Edited May 16, 2022 1:35pm May 15, 2022 3:45pm | Edited May 16, 2022 1:35pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Hi ntk The indicator is my own EA which I use to determine if a possible reversal has taken place. By the way I cant program, ask ****, but I managed to put multipair multi-chart analysis into an EA, cross referencing previous Peak High/lows with my own take on money management and to display it onto a chart in a way that I can understand. Some of the ideas I gleaned from George, Pete, Dave , Kev and watching the usual guru's on the tube. It only took three years to get it how I wanted, no pain, no gain as they say. I would certainly recommend...
thank you for your answer

My trading is similar like your style because at the end of a complex operation, I come to the potential candidats, levels, bias, direction, targets like you displayed with your 10 chart expectations, hence I recognized them immediately and asked about if you possibly could share, with that clean, and imho much least memory hungry tools, I could monitor more markets without constant switch on/off. Because of the complex work/tools I used to get the level result, I have to keep separate profile, template for each market, and have to close one market to inspect next one, keep a note on the monitor too which markets have current potential, if open more than one or 2 market MT4 would get frozen ... in the heath sometimes often I forgot and the whole system got locked frozen
  • #1,336
  • May 15, 2022 6:13pm May 15, 2022 6:13pm
cheers deany
& andy (love your charts pal),
and all others who post

It’s always great when some folks post & just open up.
I enjoy reading them all, thank you.


What do we ask from trading, (what do we bring from life, yes Ihlas & PeterC).

For ourselves we might well consider a singular individual purpose,
to seek to be Boundless (cheers George).

Then we are Learning, we are not copying, or following.

And any challenge to be boundless (from all conflicting viewpoints) shows our success, or otherwise, in trading is because of US.

What a huge responsibility, I know.

Is this the only true purpose for what we are searching. If it’s just money, find a job if you/we can.

If it’s to approach a “boundless” mindset, then the journey might be more enriching than just $$$$$$.

And finding boundless might also bring with it a meaning, other than just lifting a rock to ‘find something’ underneath.

In Forex it might be to find a rational purpose for market movements, for why market structure changes, and also why market behaviour can help answer the first two.

And in our life, ‘boundless’ might find something else again. And it might be priceless. It might open us up to, infinite possibility.


Being boundless. ie NOT being bound by ego, not being bound by desire (purely) for money, not being bound by a want to gamble, not being bound by some hope for winning a trade, not being bound by our own restrictiveness.

At a point, we might then make the best decisions, (in trading & in life), for ourselves.

If a trader cannot understand the “WHY” (of why), they are entering a trade now, then they are setting themselves up as fodder for the markets.

And all the best to all as we commence a new Monday, and the mysteries it will bring .

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,337
  • May 15, 2022 8:53pm May 15, 2022 8:53pm
Interesting post elsewhere by someone commenting on why would a trader choose 200ema to perhaps a 199ema, why take profit at 100 pips and not 99 pips, and so on?

Lets step back and think. Humans are creatures of habit. They like to keep things tidy, boxed, repeatable, easily controlled, nice round number the list goes on.

And why would that be important. Someone, a politician I think, said spread a lie, keep spreading it until it becomes fact. So why not spread a lie, let’s talk about 200ema, every bank uses it right? It’s everywhere, on YouTube channels, various courses, PDF’s and so on. But is it true!

Price heads down to 200ema, bounces off, nice, then heads back and bounces again… nice … support right. Am I right, it’s support. One more bounce off, terrific let’s go long… whammo fast run to the short side, stops taken out limit orders fired off, return to 200 one more reversal the shorts are now cleaned out, the longs are cleaned out and another happy bunch of traders are watching the entity cash in while it now looks to visit a previously set trap.

So what happened. Have you ever arrived early morning on an empty beach and by 10am every bugger within 100 miles is sitting right in your patch of sand!! Something attracted you to that patch, and the same for the rest of them.

The entity knows where you will sit on that chart, and what looks attractive to the rest of the trading community through a previously set trap, and it’s not one, it’s always part of a combination.

Every move is designed to clear out stops, that is all they have to do, and to do that they just show you a nice empty patch of sand for you to go sit on.

Andy
  • #1,338
  • May 15, 2022 9:55pm May 15, 2022 9:55pm
Quoting TimeTells
{image}
The 1970s line useless to some but in the hands of a Master of their craft it can be another tool in the toolbox to carve some pips from the market.

Perspective is everything...An open mind is everything as George would say Boundless. Others would look at that price rejection at the median level and wonder why.
But to an Instutional trader and to Algos these levels can be very meaningful..

The more screentime you put under your belt (if your eyes and brain are open) the more you begin to see the Nuances of the market and the importance of
DAILY OPEN
MONTHLY HIGHS/LOWS
WEEKLY HIGHS/LOWS
PREV DAYS HIGHS/LOWS
DAILY HIGHS/LOWS

AND BEST OF ALL THEY ARE ALL HORIZONTAL LINES...THAT INSTUTIONS AND ALGOS ARE ALL TRADING TO AND AWAY FROM. You gotta be smarter than the average retail trader.

Cheers
Blue

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Markets are Mirrors,,Mastery of craft is mastery of self
  • #1,339
  • May 15, 2022 10:52pm May 15, 2022 10:52pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} The 1970s line useless to some but in the hands of a Master of their craft it can be another tool in the toolbox to carve some pips from the market. Perspective is everything...An open mind is everything as George would say Boundless. Others would look at that price rejection at the median level and wonder why. But to an Instutional trader and to Algos these levels can be very meaningful.. The more screentime you put under your belt (if your eyes and brain are open) the more you begin to see the Nuances of the market and the importance of...

And further trades presented themselves all based off the DAily opens and The median of the two... Mean reversion does not only apply to Moving Averages.
Simple PA is powerful but many want to complicate trading.. Keep a reasonable stop and a healthy target.. If your wrong WHO CARES NEXT ! if your right well then WHO CARES NEXT ! Success comes from repeating your process.. THink of each trade as a coin flip..SO you dont tie yourself emotionally to the trade. If it wins you landed on the right side of probabilities..If it loses you landed on the wrong side of probabilites... Simply execute your process repeatedly.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Markets are Mirrors,,Mastery of craft is mastery of self
  • #1,340
  • May 15, 2022 11:38pm May 15, 2022 11:38pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} The 1970s line useless to some but in the hands of a Master of their craft it can be another tool in the toolbox to carve some pips from the market. Perspective is everything...An open mind is everything as George would say Boundless. Others would look at that price rejection at the median level and wonder why. But to an Instutional trader and to Algos these levels can be very meaningful.. The more screentime you put under your belt (if your eyes and brain are open) the more you begin to see the Nuances of the market and the importance of...
Love the Hurst numbers and of course the 1970’s lines.


Dave
K.I.S.S.
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