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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #657,681
  • Apr 29, 2022 3:25pm Apr 29, 2022 3:25pm
Quoting Whale
{quote} well done, congrats. But call the child by his name. when market is trending big time you are cant handle it, nobody does because we are trading probability, and its not always work as we expect, never mind what yours strategy is. you can take every strategy that you want, it has a weakness.. and without control the weaknesses of the strategy, the account will burn, Boris will phone home for a margin call. shabat shalom.
It is always the same...in big trending markets it is very easy to earn money but has nothing to do with probabilities. Give me a bigger pair where you can be sure it has a range of 100 pips in the next 24 hours and I make you $10000 Dollar each month... .

Nevertheless you can use these exaggerations we see currently. Easy money- but not usual.
  • #657,682
  • Apr 30, 2022 4:14am Apr 30, 2022 4:14am
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yes yes yes
  • #657,683
  • Edited May 1, 2022 2:50am Apr 30, 2022 5:45am | Edited May 1, 2022 2:50am
after a heavy drop in April Q2 i would love to see a consolidation in may Q2 retest that low and bounce toward 1.2750 area and make a drop to 1.2250


my overall view remain bullish toward the Q3 of the year if Q2 break back above 1.2550 Area then i will be looking for 1.3550, i will change my plan of 1.3550 this year if Gu touches 1.20.
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MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #657,684
  • Apr 30, 2022 6:16am Apr 30, 2022 6:16am
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  • #657,685
  • Apr 30, 2022 9:16am Apr 30, 2022 9:16am
Quoting Headland
An exceptional week about to close in just over 1Hr. Another > 30 day adr day Friday @ a likely 176% of that metric, though this time a bullish day. A > 13wk awr and > 6mth amr week and month soon to close too. * The week's 2410/11 lo saw o/s levels on the dly, and regular bullish div there on 4hr and 2hr oscillators. * The mthly candle will close bearishly but likely with a bigger lower wick than upper wick. The t/f remains in a downtrend with it's last LL @ 3161, and last LH @ 3749. * The wkly candle will also close similarly and the t/f...
Headland, really smart analysis as ever. Would you mind simplifying the bold text to idiot level language so I can understand. How do you calculate the average weekly/monthly range. Is there an indicator or something or do you do it by hand. Cheers !
  • #657,686
  • Apr 30, 2022 10:31am Apr 30, 2022 10:31am
Quoting mysterio
{quote} Headland, really smart analysis as ever. Would you mind simplifying the bold text to idiot level language so I can understand. How do you calculate the average weekly/monthly range. Is there an indicator or something or do you do it by hand. Cheers !
i have indis for adr and weekly if you need them. if your on telegram look for me and i will add you to my indi room
  • #657,687
  • Edited 2:36pm Apr 30, 2022 10:48am | Edited 2:36pm
Happy Saturday mates
Quoting fxmasterdxb
{quote} So bulls took over next week we head to 1.2690 and then i need to re-assess the trend

I thought merrily of your trade when the breakout happened.

I can't wait to see Monday if here is a first intraday support!

With this potential resistance zone, and considering downtrend and steadiness on >3H, my own coin is slightly rigged to flip in favor of more lows right away. But a little more in favor of some bloody ranging cock fighting in these levels right here, unless bears simply continue their 4month long downward dance to inferno....

So basically, for me, Monday, price movements will probably give us the burger on the left or the burger on the right, if it continues its pristine waterfall of a drop. And in case of my slightly less likely scenario, a continued rise from here, I'll definitely wait for last Monday's low (2690s!) to be reached before considering new shorts.

6 days straight of big news will clear the sky and give us some sun, I hope.

Who knows if this Mr.4Hdrop is just getting started, or if it is done. But no matter what happens, I feel that the heightened volatility will continue and that's all that should matter to us!
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If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #657,688
  • Edited 2:53pm Apr 30, 2022 2:21pm | Edited 2:53pm
Quoting mysterio
{quote} Headland, really smart analysis as ever. Would you mind simplifying the bold text to idiot level language so I can understand. How do you calculate the average weekly/monthly range. Is there an indicator or something or do you do it by hand. Cheers !
Hi, I do use an indy. The MT4 version I use is attached and has changeable inputs so you can set it for what is best for you. I use 6 months average monthly range (amr,) 13 weeks [ie 1/4 of 1 year's worth of weeks] for 13 week average weekly range (awr,) and 30 days for average daily range (adr.) Remember these are actually moving average pip ranges, so they take the last x periods (whatever you have it set to) to calculate the current average range for that period, valid for how long the period lasts (one month, one week, one day respectively,) and in my case the current 6mth amr, 13wk awr, and 30day adr respectively. When a period ends, the last period drops out of the calculation in favour of the most recent one just closed, and the new average of those is calculated accordingly. An excel spreadsheet coded the right way will do the same thing for you, but an indy is easier as it updates itself at the start of each new respective period.

'... A > 13wk awr and > 6mth amr week and month soon to close too....' - what I meant was that this week and month just closing on friday would see a pip range greater than (>) the 13week awr, and 6mth amr.

It is attached below.
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File Type: ex4 rangefinder.ex4   19 KB | 296 downloads
Trader with an Edge.
  • #657,689
  • Apr 30, 2022 5:32pm Apr 30, 2022 5:32pm
Quoting pipibrasci
Maybe just a little wick on May's (month) candle to take out buy SLs and head for 1.2700 - 1.2800 in the interim. 3 bar reversal pattern. Strong 3rd bullish bar(Engulfing candle 2 red bars). Bullish expanding triangle/Ascending triangle(flip)/ possible H&S patterns confirm trend to be bullish. {image}
I hope it plays out this way (H2 TF) with confluences in play.

Months of March /April gave lots of failed chart pattern scenarios. But tripple bullish chart pattern confirmations WONT FAIL this time. I challenge the market to do its worse! "Market is always right"

My TP - 1.2750 from entry levels x2.

Happy weekend.
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Grit; Knowledge; Right Mindset; All you need to overcome. KIS!
  • #657,690
  • Apr 30, 2022 10:39pm Apr 30, 2022 10:39pm
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  • #657,691
  • Edited 6:23am May 1, 2022 4:41am | Edited 6:23am
Quoting Headland
{quote} Hi, I do use an indy. The MT4 version I use is attached and has changeable inputs so you can set it for what is best for you. I use 6 months average monthly range (amr,) 13 weeks [ie 1/4 of 1 year's worth of weeks] for 13 week average weekly range (awr,) and 30 days for average daily range (adr.) Remember these are actually moving average pip ranges, so they take the last x periods (whatever you have it set to) to calculate the current average range for that period, valid for how long the period lasts (one month, one week, one day respectively,)...
Thanks this helps a lot-- I've been trying to puzzle out this issue for months. This is what I was looking for. Thank you bud

Oh last question-- in terms of percentages. Is there any numbers to watch that people typically use ? When talking about ADR or AWR ?
  • #657,692
  • May 1, 2022 6:35am May 1, 2022 6:35am
Morning anybody see 2240 ish 2045
  • #657,693
  • May 1, 2022 6:45am May 1, 2022 6:45am
Here's what I think for next week

Thanks Headland for the range indicator ! Good times
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  • #657,694
  • May 1, 2022 9:14am May 1, 2022 9:14am
Just checking the pa next opening possible, same as eu, another half to end before next tanking if to! So correct down to take advantages of further up correction, may fail at any high below limits and even now. Take care
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #657,695
  • May 1, 2022 11:58am May 1, 2022 11:58am
The trend remains down. There has been a retracement up but the overall trend is down
  • #657,696
  • May 1, 2022 12:03pm May 1, 2022 12:03pm
Gold I see retracing to 1900 and then returning to trend which is downwards.
  • #657,697
  • May 1, 2022 12:18pm May 1, 2022 12:18pm
Quoting fontu
Just checking the pa next opening possible, same as eu, another half to end before next tanking if to! So correct down to take advantages of further up correction, may fail at any high below limits and even now. Take care {image} {image}
Evening Fontu . Your charts are looking as crude as mine . But hay ho as long as they work that’s the main thing lol Regards E
  • #657,698
  • May 1, 2022 12:23pm May 1, 2022 12:23pm
Elbert how long have you been trading and are you a full time trader?
  • #657,699
  • May 1, 2022 12:27pm May 1, 2022 12:27pm
Cable 1.26 is the key level
  • #657,700
  • Edited 2:51pm May 1, 2022 1:11pm | Edited 2:51pm
Quoting elbert3
{quote} Evening Fontu . Your charts are looking as crude as mine . But hay ho as long as they work that’s the main thing lol Regards E
yeah , hope no any great more correction possible , though more space available , should be very limited , 2730 can be max if to have probable double bottom in intention at around 2470 support , not any strong than 2250 0r 2075 next . however even get support next tanking to lower levels likely , just crash market may happen unconditionally ! so less correction be the better to get that 2250 support to bounce more confidently . take care .
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
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