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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #85,161
  • Apr 26, 2022 10:50am Apr 26, 2022 10:50am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} Unless you are a swing trader I am wondering why not trade the channel you so eloquently pointed out. I mean.. that's a 200 pip channel. 4x your current loss.
If you were asking me, I actually did end up trading that channel both ways. I guess I should clarify that when I said I was hesitant, I meant to commit to any larger positions with a longer term bias at the time. But short term swing trades/scalps.. no problem. At the time I took the trade, the 127.40-50 area seemed like a good spot for buys, and possibly the last area where bulls might step in to buy before a stronger down move. Turned out to be right, at least short term. I closed my trade when there was hesitation around 128. Took a short on the bounce early in the London session. Bias is definitely to the downside for now. Just looking for a better entry. Will be looking for shorts if it makes it back up to the 127.90 area.
  • #85,162
  • Apr 26, 2022 10:58am Apr 26, 2022 10:58am
Quoting ICouldBWrong
{quote} If you were asking me, I actually did end up trading that channel both ways. I guess I should clarify that when I said I was hesitant, I meant to commit to any larger positions with a longer term bias at the time. But short term swing trades/scalps.. no problem. At the time I took the trade, the 127.40-50 area seemed like a good spot for buys, and possibly the last area where bulls might step in to buy before a stronger down move. Turned out to be right, at least short term. I closed my trade when there was hesitation around 128. Took a...
I endorse this statement.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #85,163
  • Edited 2:31pm Apr 26, 2022 11:11am | Edited 2:31pm
If I were to guess I would say that the US market is loading up. Vix is HOD, strength meter down.. yet the only one up of the pairs. Looks like we are going to test the overnight. Watching the bottom of the previous consolidation. 127.8 ish
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #85,164
  • Edited 4:03pm Apr 26, 2022 2:33pm | Edited 4:03pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
If I were to guess I would say that the US market is loading up. Vix is HOD, strength meter down.. yet the only one up of the pairs. Looks like we are going to test the overnight. Watching the bottom of the previous consolidation. 127.8 ish
Not so sure about 7.8... adding a short EOD. I think Asia will signal the beginning. 20:30 EST?

I would strongly advise anyone against any bullish actions...

VIX Daily chart

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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #85,165
  • Edited Apr 27, 2022 1:45am Apr 26, 2022 4:07pm | Edited Apr 27, 2022 1:45am
Possible Asian Session...
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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #85,166
  • Apr 26, 2022 6:06pm Apr 26, 2022 6:06pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
Possible Asian Session... {image}
Hmmm the 4hr looks sketchy. Closed my shorts
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #85,167
  • Apr 27, 2022 2:08am Apr 27, 2022 2:08am
This thing just don't want to go down. Probably waiting on BOJ to decide one way or the other. Went ahead and took a short at 128.06. SL above yesterday's high of 128.23
  • #85,168
  • Edited 5:33am Apr 27, 2022 5:17am | Edited 5:33am
Vix opened down. Looks like possible support incoming. If so we may see something on UJ during the us market. We have GDP tomorrow. Also Yen Bank reports today. Resistance at 37 on this.

On UJ a lil more up is possible IMO
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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #85,169
  • Apr 27, 2022 8:40am Apr 27, 2022 8:40am
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shorting the yes is fun but when the trend is up have to stick with it until we see a double top somewhere. 135.16 is the next point of interest for me for a pullback of larger move. but I would not be surprised of this trend goes all the way to 147.60. big numbers i know but if they are going to dump the markets they need them a lot higher in order not to destroy every economy that exists.
  • #85,170
  • Apr 27, 2022 8:57am Apr 27, 2022 8:57am
Quoting 4xjunkie
{image}shorting the yes is fun but when the trend is up have to stick with it until we see a double top somewhere. 135.16 is the next point of interest for me for a pullback of larger move. but I would not be surprised of this trend goes all the way to 147.60. big numbers i know but if they are going to dump the markets they need them a lot higher in order not to destroy every economy that exists.
How would a lower "dump" ruin the economies?
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #85,171
  • Edited 10:35am Apr 27, 2022 10:25am | Edited 10:35am
Last two times we saw this level was 2015, and 2007.

2002 we saw 135, but after hitting these levels every single time we got a huge correction of about 3000 pips or more in the following year or two.

When you have random swings of 115 points in less than a 24 hour period on no news that's a pretty good indication of irrational exuberance.

You can only treat the fx market like a casino for so long and I would caution anyone trading UJ to be careful at this point.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #85,172
  • Apr 27, 2022 10:30am Apr 27, 2022 10:30am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} Hmmm the 4hr looks sketchy. Closed my shorts

This woulda bee ooogly
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #85,173
  • Apr 27, 2022 10:34am Apr 27, 2022 10:34am
Good Im taken most profits at the deep i think that was a ABC correction of wave 3 now we are moving in wave 5 to 1.308x maybe 1.316x and from this level will be watching for fat shorts down in new 5wave cycle, cheers!
People don't plan to lose. They lose because they don't plan.
  • #85,174
  • Apr 27, 2022 10:49am Apr 27, 2022 10:49am
I've been trading geppy over UJ the last few months.

The price movements in UJ make no sense and randomly happen.

There's nothing technically sound about it and from a risk management standpoint it's insane.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #85,175
  • Apr 27, 2022 7:46pm Apr 27, 2022 7:46pm
USD/JPY doesn't seem to want to pullback just as yet, bouncing off support at 127 in the build up to today's BOJ interest rate decision.

All trading carries risk, but with central bank divergence having fuelled this rally over the last few weeks, it will be interesting to see if the meeting in a couple of hours helps extend this rally, or allows for a sustained leg lower to form a swing high around 129.
  • #85,176
  • Apr 27, 2022 9:00pm Apr 27, 2022 9:00pm
It could turn bullish again
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,177
  • Apr 27, 2022 10:29pm Apr 27, 2022 10:29pm
Boom

130 can be broken today and then accelerate towards 135 to take out the stops
don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,178
  • Apr 28, 2022 1:19am Apr 28, 2022 1:19am
please open eyes on this pair, becomes the most volatile pair since three months
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each day 10%,,,, https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/1371538
  • #85,179
  • Apr 28, 2022 2:06am Apr 28, 2022 2:06am
looks like 8 bullish weeks in a row
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #85,180
  • Apr 28, 2022 2:09am Apr 28, 2022 2:09am
Im starting building shorts net from here 130.60, every 10 pips higher new short, when drop from here will add, will be adding to 132.50 when break manage with longs to 135, targeting 118
People don't plan to lose. They lose because they don't plan.
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