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USD/JPY Discussion

Hmmmm my UJ strength meter just dipped. and is still going from the looks of it..
When you feel like you HAVE to trade is when you least should!
U/J still relatively strong, at least compared to most other JPY pairs. It's moving down, but in measured moves, not really a 'crash' yet. This is obviously because USD is still very strong. I think once we see the dollar start to come down, U/J could crash hard with it. I think the 102.4 -.5 area for the dollar should be interesting. Could potentially bring on some hard selling.
Quoting ICouldBWrong
U/J still relatively strong, at least compared to most other JPY pairs. It's moving down, but in measured moves, not really a 'crash' yet. This is obviously because USD is still very strong. I think once we see the dollar start to come down, U/J could crash hard with it. I think the 102.4 -.5 area for the dollar should be interesting. Could potentially bring on some hard selling.
U/J is not moving much, but maybe it will start to get dumped soon like A/J
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} U/J is not moving much, but maybe it will start to get dumped soon like A/J {image}
Yes, A/J, G/J and a few others all with large sell offs over the past several trading days. My bias on U/J is to the downside at this time. I think it's becoming more likely that we will eventually get a larger sell off, but it is definitely moving slowly and taking it's time. Like I mentioned previously, I believe that is because of a strong USD, and if/when dollar starts to crash, U/J is likely to follow. Just my best guess based on all of the current charts at this time.
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} U/J is not moving much, but maybe it will start to get dumped soon like A/J {image}
Did you just compare America to Australia???

Da hell Bro!!!
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When you feel like you HAVE to trade is when you least should!
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} Unless you are a swing trader I am wondering why not trade the channel you so eloquently pointed out. I mean.. that's a 200 pip channel. 4x your current loss.
If you were asking me, I actually did end up trading that channel both ways. I guess I should clarify that when I said I was hesitant, I meant to commit to any larger positions with a longer term bias at the time. But short term swing trades/scalps.. no problem. At the time I took the trade, the 127.40-50 area seemed like a good spot for buys, and possibly the last area where bulls might step in to buy before a stronger down move. Turned out to be right, at least short term. I closed my trade when there was hesitation around 128. Took a short on the bounce early in the London session. Bias is definitely to the downside for now. Just looking for a better entry. Will be looking for shorts if it makes it back up to the 127.90 area.
Quoting ICouldBWrong
{quote} If you were asking me, I actually did end up trading that channel both ways. I guess I should clarify that when I said I was hesitant, I meant to commit to any larger positions with a longer term bias at the time. But short term swing trades/scalps.. no problem. At the time I took the trade, the 127.40-50 area seemed like a good spot for buys, and possibly the last area where bulls might step in to buy before a stronger down move. Turned out to be right, at least short term. I closed my trade when there was hesitation around 128. Took a...
I endorse this statement.
When you feel like you HAVE to trade is when you least should!
If I were to guess I would say that the US market is loading up. Vix is HOD, strength meter down.. yet the only one up of the pairs. Looks like we are going to test the overnight. Watching the bottom of the previous consolidation. 127.8 ish
When you feel like you HAVE to trade is when you least should!
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
If I were to guess I would say that the US market is loading up. Vix is HOD, strength meter down.. yet the only one up of the pairs. Looks like we are going to test the overnight. Watching the bottom of the previous consolidation. 127.8 ish
Not so sure about 7.8... adding a short EOD. I think Asia will signal the beginning. 20:30 EST?

I would strongly advise anyone against any bullish actions...

VIX Daily chart

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When you feel like you HAVE to trade is when you least should!
  • Post #85,170
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  • Edited Apr 27, 2022 2:45am Apr 26, 2022 5:07pm | Edited Apr 27, 2022 2:45am
Possible Asian Session...
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When you feel like you HAVE to trade is when you least should!
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
Possible Asian Session... {image}
Hmmm the 4hr looks sketchy. Closed my shorts
When you feel like you HAVE to trade is when you least should!
This thing just don't want to go down. Probably waiting on BOJ to decide one way or the other. Went ahead and took a short at 128.06. SL above yesterday's high of 128.23
Vix opened down. Looks like possible support incoming. If so we may see something on UJ during the us market. We have GDP tomorrow. Also Yen Bank reports today. Resistance at 37 on this.

On UJ a lil more up is possible IMO
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When you feel like you HAVE to trade is when you least should!
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shorting the yes is fun but when the trend is up have to stick with it until we see a double top somewhere. 135.16 is the next point of interest for me for a pullback of larger move. but I would not be surprised of this trend goes all the way to 147.60. big numbers i know but if they are going to dump the markets they need them a lot higher in order not to destroy every economy that exists.
Quoting 4xjunkie
{image}shorting the yes is fun but when the trend is up have to stick with it until we see a double top somewhere. 135.16 is the next point of interest for me for a pullback of larger move. but I would not be surprised of this trend goes all the way to 147.60. big numbers i know but if they are going to dump the markets they need them a lot higher in order not to destroy every economy that exists.
How would a lower "dump" ruin the economies?
When you feel like you HAVE to trade is when you least should!
Last two times we saw this level was 2015, and 2007.

2002 we saw 135, but after hitting these levels every single time we got a huge correction of about 3000 pips or more in the following year or two.

When you have random swings of 115 points in less than a 24 hour period on no news that's a pretty good indication of irrational exuberance.

You can only treat the fx market like a casino for so long and I would caution anyone trading UJ to be careful at this point.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} Hmmm the 4hr looks sketchy. Closed my shorts

This woulda bee ooogly
When you feel like you HAVE to trade is when you least should!
Good Im taken most profits at the deep i think that was a ABC correction of wave 3 now we are moving in wave 5 to 1.308x maybe 1.316x and from this level will be watching for fat shorts down in new 5wave cycle, cheers!
People don't plan to lose. They lose because they don't plan.
I've been trading geppy over UJ the last few months.

The price movements in UJ make no sense and randomly happen.

There's nothing technically sound about it and from a risk management standpoint it's insane.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
USD/JPY doesn't seem to want to pullback just as yet, bouncing off support at 127 in the build up to today's BOJ interest rate decision.

All trading carries risk, but with central bank divergence having fuelled this rally over the last few weeks, it will be interesting to see if the meeting in a couple of hours helps extend this rally, or allows for a sustained leg lower to form a swing high around 129.
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