Cable Update (GBPUSD)

The market is never wrong.

fuck all s&R strategies , the current trend , that's what count

Long term no, short term it can appear that way sometimes. For the big boys, with deep pockets and low leverage, moves like these are meaningless...for us, they are stressful, to say the least. lol

as long as Q2 dont close below 1.25 i remain bullish toward Q3

you are trading from scalping Tf u should remain on such trend, when you make comment about trend then you will be questioned about many things that u mean about trend, it will depend on ur tf some of us dont trade 50pips.

Cable update! I'm working with another trader to try and improve their risk management and develop a plan. Has anyone got a good template, something I can start with, maybe you can share yours or a sample. Any help appreciated.

Gbpjpy short

Gbpjpy tp 159

seeing both eu and gu miss some intermediate to by less 2 pips , anyway still can wait for , so test / break 0635 and 2682 respectively !

Traders here really angry with the market

I would like to ask if anyone knows this indicator on the image attached, im so curious about this one

Test the water buy trade opened at 1.2600 for a 50 pip target at 1.2650. Tight s/loss of 25 pips. I could be wrong.
Cheers.

Gbpchf long 1.21060

Eurgbp short 0.84600

The TREND is YOUR FRIEND

SU

Closed Gbpjpy position

Hi Mysterio, I have been working on this aspect of my trading a lot recently and have shared the general approach I take below. It is a sheet I wrote for myself so please bear that in mind, I know you can calculate odds! Nevertheless I hope this helps with their risk management plan and helps anyone here who thinks trading is about predicting price more than it is about controlling risk.

General guidelines to limit risk:
1. Always follow the trend (never predict tops or bottoms on any timeframe unless trading a range)
2. Calculate Odds - the amount of money you stand to win relative to the amount of money at risk, expressed as a ratio.
3. Assess whether the trade has a chance of succeeding equal to or greater than these odds. Let’s say 1 in 5 S&R levels hold, there is a 20% chance of winning so a trade must have a minimum risk to reward ratio of 5:1 to be viable.
4. Play tight. The more you bet relative to the size of the reward the worse the odds, so only bet when you believe the trade has a reasonable chance of success AND gives you good odds on winning.
5. Determine the relative strength the trade you are framing so that you do not over or under play it.
6. Play for value. If you think there is a 20% chance of winning and the RR is 5:1 then take the trade. But also be patient and look for setups with the best value possible. At least 10:1+ (and allow trades to play out whenever possible.)
7. Bet on price momentum rather than trade management. Always follow the trend! Trend continuation trades have the best chance of success.

“Listen, business is easy. If you’ve got a low downside and a big upside, you go do it. If you’ve got a big downside and a small upside, you run away. The only time you have any work to do is when you have a big downside and a big upside.” —SAM ZELL, NEW YORKER, 2007
Odds

Calculating Odds means to calculate the amount of money you stand to win relative to the amount of money at risk, usually expressed as a ratio
i.e, 3 to 1
£150 to £50

A bet (or trade) with odds of 3 to 1 means that you have to win this trade once for every 3 times you lose just to break even. 3 losses and 1 win creates 4 outcomes so you would need to win 25% of the time to break even. This means that if there is a 25% or greater chance of winning then it is correct to make the trade, and if there is a less than 25% chance of winning then the trade must be passed over. Chance is a subjective judgment which relies on experience and a fair assessment of the opportunity at hand.

If the ratio is 5 to 1 you have to win once for every 5 losses to BE
£250/50

If the ratio is 10 to 1 you have to win once for every 10 losses to BE etc.
£500/50

(The fibonacci retracement tool is useful for precisely calculating ratios based on Stop Loss placement and Target Profit if you change the percentages to 10, 20, 30% etc.)

Chance of improving
In the 3:1 example above, let’s say this is a bullish trend continuation setup from a pullback into support targeting the recent high - there is a fair chance that if the trade succeeds it could also exceed the profit target and target a new level which would improve the odds from 3:1 to say 5:1 or even 20:1 if the trend is strong . Setups with a chance of improving are clearly preferable and generally occur when trading away from a key level with the direction of the trend - never trade into one or against the dominant trend.

Position Size relative to risk
The more you bet relative to the size of the reward the worse the odds. I have given examples of 3:1 and 5:1 above, in reality I don’t consider anything less than 10:1

Trade Management changes odds
Changes after the initial setup affect the odds, the practice of moving the Stop Loss to BE shortly after the trade is in profit, a so-called ‘free trade’ really means that instead of risking £25 to make £100 you risked £25 to make £1! If you take profit at 50% of the intended target you are risking £25 to make £50 - there may be a good reason for this based on subsequent price action or it may be to ‘lock-in’ some profit, but what has to be considered is the effect of these actions over a large set of trades as they reduce your overall expectancy. A trader who frequently risks £25 to make £1 is clearly not going to make it very far and in the second scenario the trader needs a very high win rate to make good money as their break even percentage is measly, you would have to win once for every 2 losses just to break even - or 33.3% of the time. So if taking profit too soon becomes a habit then over time it will significantly reduce the trader's edge. A trader who takes profit at 1xR every time must have an extremely good win rate, which is very difficult. It is always best to take a long term view of these decisions, don’t act like each trade is a one time decision but something you will do a hundred times, or more, and see how you act now. Allow trades to play out whenever possible, so long as the reasoning behind the trade is sound then why not set and forget? This also has the advantage of spending less time sitting down and staring at a screen!

Timeframe
Trading requires good timing on all timeframes however short timeframes are less forgiving and therefore riskier

Funds
Play tight - bet infrequently on only the strongest setups which offer the best value, however if you are reluctant to make a trade when there is no obvious reason why you shouldn’t take it then it could be a sign that your position size is too big relative to your funds or the opportunity at hand.

Never risk more than 1% on one idea
Give yourself three chances to get into the trade, in practice this means risking 0.33% a trade.

Old wine in a new bottle
This is free version of mladen.s half-trend nrp.
change Amplitude 20.
See Attachment.
Any Time Frame

put MTLicenseLib.ex4 in Libraries folder

why is nobody checking the the low and high on lets say weekly 61.8 fib is 2499 and more better lower where we see a tl is 70% 2245