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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #653,661
  • Edited Mar 12, 2022 12:33am Mar 11, 2022 11:41pm | Edited Mar 12, 2022 12:33am
i keep bringing those great indicators , but don't use them
i just put them on the chart , is there something more stupid then that to do ?
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yes yes yes
  • #653,662
  • Edited 5:00am Mar 12, 2022 12:21am | Edited 5:00am
Quoting Vincent1
{quote} Just got back home and saw the nice surprise that the market hit the take profit. Fantastic trade!!! 20 pips risked, 934 pips gained. Risk to reward rate 1:46. Swap 7% of the gain {image}{image} FOMC next week, very important. High inflation should make think of +0.50, but the shock of the war has already put the markets in crisis, and the Fed could settle for only +0.25 In the long run, the dollar will return to a sell-off, GBPUSD in the coming months may reach 1.50. But we need to know when and how the trend will turn from bearish to bullish...
out of interest what was the % gain on this beautiful trade?
I look back and was actually trading this..but somehow changed plan..go figure
  • #653,663
  • Mar 12, 2022 12:30am Mar 12, 2022 12:30am
likely to fall more here , some sr there before but not good or born to hold before 2672, 2213 or 2094 . so better tank faster , may engage in war indirectly then ! if eu bottom pattern to follow the 1263 level to move first !! who knows !
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #653,664
  • Mar 12, 2022 3:01am Mar 12, 2022 3:01am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Well done for your persistence. I have a problem with it being a fantastic trade though. It looks to me like that equates to about 5.6 pips a day over a 33 week period. Must have been like watching paint dry.
Thanks Nala

Yes, if you look at the ratio of pips per day it is not a fantastic trade
My "fantastic trade" was referring to the many pips (934) and the excellent risk to reward ratio of 1:46. The entry was great, just at most of a small intermediate bull market, and then it went well down, the stop loss was never in danger.

There is one thing you need to take into consideration, I am referring to Daily and Weekly chart (sometimes Monthly too). I have a full time job that I enjoy and it keeps me busy about 50 hours a week, I have a girlfriend with I enjoy spending time together. I don't think I have the time and desire to stay at the PC to analyze periods of less than 1 hour charts (maybe just to study an entry). I've done this in the past a few times. But for my lifestyle I prefer bigger time frames.

Don't doubt that traders on H1 or M15 make a lot more pips than me per day, compliment them, but to do that they have to spend a lot more time than me on the computer
What time frame do you trade the most?
  • #653,665
  • Mar 12, 2022 3:14am Mar 12, 2022 3:14am
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} out of interest what was the % gain not this beautiful trade? I look back and was actually trading this..but somehow changed plan..go figure
Thanks Navin

When I started the trade in July, the risk of 20 pips was about 3% of the capital splitt in 2 positions (as per Money management). Out of 7% swap, the reward is 130% of the capital in July.

If you changed plan means your system told you to do so. Actually there have been 2 big retracements in this period, so it was easy to change the idea regarding the bear market, I understand you
  • #653,666
  • Mar 12, 2022 4:38am Mar 12, 2022 4:38am
Quoting Vincent1
{quote} Thanks Navin When I started the trade in July, the risk of 20 pips was about 3% of the capital splitt in 2 positions (as per Money management). Out of 7% swap, the reward is 130% of the capital in July. If you changed plan means your system told you to do so. Actually there have been 2 big retracements in this period, so it was easy to change the idea regarding the bear market, I understand you
epic trade bro epic!

  • #653,667
  • Edited 6:43am Mar 12, 2022 5:03am | Edited 6:43am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Well done for your persistence. I have a problem with it being a fantastic trade though. It looks to me like that equates to about 5.6 pips a day over a 33 week period. Must have been like watching paint dry.

I guess this comes down too, the percentage gain achieved over a 33 week period.
How many traders can risk 3% to gain over 100% of their capital? I guess, a good trader can make 40% and over, for a period of 1 year, or a lifetime. If u have this quality u can be very rich

This is where the trade become fantastic, which is why I asked the question
U can see a glass half full or half empty

Vincent is very strong mentally, like he says it wasn't easy! Was a great trade definitely IMHO
  • #653,668
  • Mar 12, 2022 5:37am Mar 12, 2022 5:37am
Quoting Headland
? Anyone on the 1st news of the Ukrainian invasion who didn't immediately buy $, gold, and oil, (although oil is more prone to so many variables versus for eg gold,) missed out and doesn't understand basic fundies. This was free money! Wkly and 1hr below. {image} {image}
I get you. Probably cause I'm a newish trader I don't really have the confidence to branch out. I have a way of scalping the pound which works for me and when I try to experiment elsewhere I usually get burned. Any advice for a newish trader (1.5 years) to develop this confidence??
  • #653,669
  • Mar 12, 2022 7:09am Mar 12, 2022 7:09am
Quoting Vincent1
{quote} Thanks Navin When I started the trade in July, the risk of 20 pips was about 3% of the capital splitt in 2 positions (as per Money management). Out of 7% swap, the reward is 130% of the capital in July. If you changed plan means your system told you to do so. Actually there have been 2 big retracements in this period, so it was easy to change the idea regarding the bear market, I understand you
Another Wavegarrick. Weldone Vincent. Maybe one day, i might have this patience.It was really worth it. 9 months and 130% profit. Epic indeed
  • #653,670
  • Mar 12, 2022 9:08am Mar 12, 2022 9:08am
...just throwing out some ideas. It's a febrile situation re Ukraine and anything could happen, ie a worsening (most likely at least in the short-term) or an improving sitiuation (ceasefire/some kind of agreement etc...) and it's a developing situation too - even when the market is closed so we could see a 'genuine' gap up or down on any w/e development (s,) at open.

Price closed near to it's lo on Friday that also being the wkly and current mthly/yrly lo. On 1hr though we still have a repeating pattern of regular bullish div @ that lo (present on 4hr too,) and the last 3 x 1hr candles were an inverted pinbar followed by 2 effective hammer candles, the last being bullish bodied. Assuming no negative developments over the w/eCould this indicate some upside pullback, or more?

1hr below.
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #653,671
  • Mar 12, 2022 9:21am Mar 12, 2022 9:21am
Quoting mysterio
{quote} I get you. Probably cause I'm a newish trader I don't really have the confidence to branch out. I have a way of scalping the pound which works for me and when I try to experiment elsewhere I usually get burned. Any advice for a newish trader (1.5 years) to develop this confidence??
Hi mate, the best advice is always to 'stay on a winning horse,' ie if your way is working for you and you are improving at it, (you should target and measure your improvement using your edge,) then stick with it. As for 'branching out' on different strategies/edges/instruments well there really is no need if your way works for you. I think it is just screen time and market exposure that helps you to develop confidence so long as that screen time and market exposure is productive and measured as described above and you see verifiable empirically measured/recorded improvements. Just as one example You will or at least should know from your own edge that there will be set-ups that have historically been higher in probability of a successful outcome than others for you so it makes sense to risk more on these for eg. Gaining more on these will help to develop a positive feedback loop critical to self-improvement.

Re the fundie based trades I described when the Ukraine thing kicked off for real, I think now and again there are no-brainer trading opportunities that are very high in probability/low in risk and this was one of them. Another was busing the Uk bank shares when the Uk Govt underpinned/effectively owned the lions share of what became LLoyds, and RBS - now Natwest, after the financial crash of 2008, even as they dropped to pennies as with govt backing they were not gonna fail and were good even as a 'buy and hold' of the physical shares. There have been good lo-risk/hi-prob 'additional' opportunities too during covid and again it is market exposure and observation/recording of these that will gain you the confidence to trade them above and beyond your mainstay edge should you wish to in the future, as they present themselves.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #653,672
  • Mar 12, 2022 9:21am Mar 12, 2022 9:21am
DXY weekly up to 102 then fall down to 96
GBP has big support on 1.298 in weekly time will be 61.8 fibo to REVERSE the price moving
but in these days all depend news of War
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  • #653,673
  • Mar 13, 2022 5:04am Mar 13, 2022 5:04am
Quoting erap
Morning's blues {image} {image} {image}
Hi,your trading system looks Awesome!
Can you share your indicator settings and rules for entry?
Also,the best timeframes to trade it.
Thanks in advance.
  • #653,674
  • Mar 13, 2022 10:27am Mar 13, 2022 10:27am
Think we may see a tap of 1.30 tomorrow and a move up to collect some internal range liquidity, then can look for shorts again when we reach 1.31-1.3150 depending on PA. We should see daily demand around 1.28-1.2950 contacted. 1.28-29 probably will be reached this week.

DXY in a range on weekly supply, approaching the top of this range
  • #653,675
  • Mar 13, 2022 2:01pm Mar 13, 2022 2:01pm
So far weekend gap is 30 pips up.
  • #653,676
  • Mar 13, 2022 4:13pm Mar 13, 2022 4:13pm
Quoting Jolita
So far weekend gap is 30 pips up.
Seems to be a positive start to the week.
Russians saying peace talks are going great and deal might be reached in matter of days. Fingers crossed.
  • #653,677
  • Mar 13, 2022 4:51pm Mar 13, 2022 4:51pm
GBPUSD market operation is in a bearish mode. On Monday last week, GBPUSD price action on the daily time frame broke down the horizontal support around the 1.32030 area (blue). Although three days of sideway price action followed the breakdown, price action on Friday produced a bearish continuation candlestick. Although we may see bullish market engineering in the early part of this week to shake out weak hands, bears are more favoured to have greater market influence than bulls.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #653,678
  • Mar 13, 2022 5:00pm Mar 13, 2022 5:00pm
Quoting IBabyTrader
{quote} Seems to be a positive start to the week. Russians saying peace talks are going great and deal might be reached in matter of days. Fingers crossed.
Very unlikely, they had too many chances to agree. I doubt Putin want to make peace, he will go to the extremes, no matter of consequences. We can't trust his intentions. He is fighting 15 miles from Polish border, it is to provoke Nato? Also they're going deeper and orders given to shoot civilians, children.
They might make peace talks with new puppet mayors of towns they've occupied, seen to much to believe.
  • #653,679
  • Mar 13, 2022 5:17pm Mar 13, 2022 5:17pm
Quoting IBabyTrader
{quote} Seems to be a positive start to the week. Russians saying peace talks are going great and deal might be reached in matter of days. Fingers crossed.
Just like they said they weren't going to invade and then were sending troops in for 'peacekeeping'

This still has the potential to get much worse
  • #653,680
  • Mar 13, 2022 7:20pm Mar 13, 2022 7:20pm
Quoting gatorinla
Yr USD chat.. USD Bull missed 96.3 close and the 95.85 year close. Bulls need to start with a month close above 95.85 and 96.03 to rise. IF Fomc can't deliver,, The usd should retrace some. Probably to Nov levels. The EU the same concerning month and 1331. Eu may rise to 1747+. China housing may hit commodity currencies harder then GU and EU. Later USD may go to supper cycle 99 and 117.. This is a 50 year chart. The begging of the petro dollar fall. Peace out. {image}
nice rise on the usd..99 done.
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