Price action at the core = family members' discussion project | Page 109 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Price Action and Trading Discussion 5,928 replies

Price action at the core / tma intra day 5,016 replies

Price Action discussion 26 replies

Volume Price Level Trading Discussion Area 1 reply

Attachments: Price action at the core = family members' discussion project
Exit Attachments

Price action at the core = family members' discussion project

  • #2,161
  • Feb 24, 2022 10:51pm Feb 24, 2022 10:51pm
Quoting venkatredy
hi mike how are you i hope your doing well
i read the george mentioned post reg herd mentality
but my main problem when looked at chart

some time price taken out herd mentality stoploss pool price reverse
& some time price move farward to next target or next herd mentality validations.

Hi V,

Now you are making progress, sir. Well done.

As you say, "sometime price will reverse, and the next time it won't".

Welcome to the World Of Forex !


Your next mission, and this will be the long one,
is to go back and examine each of those scenarios you mentioned.

as you are now really asking the question how a trader
will KNOW whether price will go up or will price go down from where price is NOW

When you solve that problem, you must promise to tell the rest of us, as we also wish to know this, in advance

For most, we can only work on probability, of either maths or wisened experience,
and, accordingly, then trade as safely as we can in the moment.

all the best
Pete
  • #2,162
  • Feb 24, 2022 11:06pm Feb 24, 2022 11:06pm
Quoting TimeTells
... as you are now really asking the question how a trader will KNOW whether price will go up or will price go down from where price is NOW When you solve that problem, you must promise to tell the rest of us, as we also wish to know this, in advance For most, we can only work on probability, of either maths or wisened experience, and, accordingly, then trade as safely as we can in the moment. all the best Pete
Hi Pete, that's similar to asking to which corner of the court Djokovic will hit his next shot. Lol

If we watch Djokovic in motion can we predict what the next few shots are going to be played ?

For tennis fans watching the match we can guess and we enjoy the flow of strokes.

To the tennis expert he can tell by his vast experience the possible shots that's going to be played.
The question then becomes how many years of learning and experience to attain this status of tennis expert ?
Most of us are fans, there are only few experts on the pro tennis circuit.
Btw, Djokovic's coach was Carlos Moya, a former world no.1
Know what you trade
  • #2,163
  • Feb 24, 2022 11:11pm Feb 24, 2022 11:11pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Pete, that's similar to asking to which corner of the court Djokovic will hit his next shot. Lol If we watch Djokovic in motion can we predict what the next few shots are going to be played ? For tennis fans watching the match we can guess and we enjoy the flow of strokes. To the tennis expert he can tell by his vast experience the possible shots that's going to be played. The question then becomes how many years of learning and experience to attain this status of tennis expert ? Most of us are fans, there are only few experts on the...



Probability !

That's all any trader has to decide.
  • #2,164
  • Edited 11:38pm Feb 24, 2022 11:14pm | Edited 11:38pm
Hi mike
thank you for replying sir.
yes as you said its probability game
but we can only consider only george targets ( swing point top / bottom) will go up or will price go down from where price is NOW.
why george sir insist to look at herd mentality?? & period seperator
i had to think on above two points.
  • #2,165
  • Feb 24, 2022 11:41pm Feb 24, 2022 11:41pm
Quoting venkatredy
Hi mike thank you for replying sir. yes as you said its probability game but we can only consider only george targets ( swing point top / bottom) will go up or will price go down from where price is NOW. why george sir insist to look at herd mentality?? & period seperator i had to think on above two points.
Hi V, just a simple exercise to try answer both yours and lasttry question..... take a look at GU now, since rising from an hour before London close where did price stop - anywhere or somewhere specific ?
Know what you trade
  • #2,166
  • Feb 25, 2022 12:04am Feb 25, 2022 12:04am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi V, just a simple exercise to try answer both yours and lasttry question..... take a look at GU now, since rising from an hour before London close where did price stop - anywhere or somewhere specific ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 32 KB
  • #2,167
  • Feb 25, 2022 12:23am Feb 25, 2022 12:23am
Hi bwillams , mike
this way i am looking at herd
Attached File(s)
File Type: docx mick 1.docx   155 KB | 381 downloads
  • #2,168
  • Feb 25, 2022 1:16am Feb 25, 2022 1:16am
Quoting venkatredy
Hi bwillams , mike this way i am looking at herd {file}

Hi V,

Your's look more to me like George's standard 15m targets.

See the charts in this post of George's, from his first thread,
which show how the Herd Validation Lineup is time-distanced, but prices are quite close together.

The lineup is ready to be taken out & broken through (often by one quick large candle).

The Herd Lineup are NOT any s/r.

The visual image they create for traders, is that they do form some incorrect notion of S/R.
As George explained these herd lineups are waiting there & primed to be "taken out" by a price run at them in the future.

all the best
Pete

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post12001104
  • #2,169
  • Feb 25, 2022 2:57am Feb 25, 2022 2:57am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi V, Your's look more to me like George's standard 15m targets. See the charts in this post of George's, from his first thread, which show how the Herd Validation Lineup is time-distanced, but prices are quite close together. The lineup is ready to be taken out & broken through (often by one quick large candle). The Herd Lineup are NOT any s/r. The visual image they create for traders, is that they do form some incorrect notion of S/R. As George explained these herd lineups are waiting there & primed to be "taken out" by a price run at...
Hi mike.
Some clarification mike why George mention target with herdmentality at above george post .
Just to place stoploss order of herd mentality traders at previous top/ bottom ( Target)
  • #2,170
  • Edited 7:13pm Feb 25, 2022 6:18am | Edited 7:13pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi V, Now you are making progress, sir. Well done. As you say, "sometime price will reverse, and the next time it won't". Welcome to the World Of Forex ! Your next mission, and this will be the long one, is to go back and examine each of those scenarios you mentioned. as you are now really asking the question how a trader will KNOW whether price will go up or will price go down from where price is NOW When you solve that problem, you must promise to tell the rest of us, as we also wish to know this, in advance For most, we...
Hi Pete,
This is interesting ... to work on that above you mentioned, do we need the "same Time-frame" of reversing or going through to the next "herd mentality" ? i think the probability can be calculated at any Time frame. if i am not wrong .... i mean that this "herd mentality" is actually some kind of psychological "level" , Not exactly ... but may be similar in its function, or you mean some thing else ?????
  • #2,171
  • Edited 5:07pm Feb 25, 2022 6:51am | Edited 5:07pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi V, Your's look more to me like George's standard 15m targets. See the charts in this post of George's, from his first thread, which show how the Herd Validation Lineup is time-distanced, but prices are quite close together. The lineup is ready to be taken out & broken through (often by one quick large candle). The Herd Lineup are NOT any s/r. The visual image they create for traders, is that they do form some incorrect notion of S/R. As George explained these herd lineups are waiting there & primed to be "taken out" by a price run at...
Hi Pete,
Two things i want to ask you :
*) first one is that i remember a great genius young trader said that he calculated on big TF (may be D1 ,4H or other TF) ... how far price will go, before it snaps back (in average, maybe around 80-150 pips??), but he did not said how he did it... using the probability calculation, or some thing like channel, for example: MA hilo, Atr, BB, Donchian, Envelopes, etc ... because other great trader also said that all of them are related ....??
*) second question is: lets say we have some kind of support & resistance, or supply & demand zone or may be other name we gave to it ... if we have the opposite zone (lets say we have support now, waiting for resistance zone to entry as the snap back point... going home to support zone), it means that the price are in sideways (not trending) behavior ... but how about it price in trending in one direction like one way ticket to the moon ?? the draw down will be extremely big, because we are using big chart as our base point ... it is much more than 150 pips ..

Below i put again the link you gave at your previous post for more clear about what i mean ...

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post12001104

this has relationship to time i think, but not so sure ... Time calculated is the same as Bar calculated or not ... because they are Similar ?
  • #2,172
  • Feb 25, 2022 6:57am Feb 25, 2022 6:57am
Quoting mixedbags
{quote} Hope you don't mind, I would suggest the Daily Open Line for a start and a M1 to M15 chart. Compare the candle sizes when they makes those U-turn. If you want to record those U-turn I suggest use ROC. Flipper posted something about it.
I saw what I want to see, it happened everyday, maybe across all pairs. But I only keen on GBPUSD, BTCUSD (lines but of different percentage) and Gold.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8O4dal9.png Size: 24 KB
OK TMA is and must be part of what I want to see. It repaints like hell.
  • #2,173
  • Edited 5:37pm Feb 25, 2022 7:59am | Edited 5:37pm
Quoting mixedbags
{quote} I saw what I want to see, it happened everyday, maybe across all pairs. But I only keen on GBPUSD, BTCUSD (lines but of different percentage) and Gold. {image}OK TMA is and must be part of what I want to see. It repaints like hell.
Hi MB,
So every one knows that TMA is repaint, agree with it ... it repaints badly, un fortunately-... yes, if is the fact.... one clue: i read some where that we can use some kind of MA (we know that MA are Not repaint, but it is other than SMA) to replace it, but until today i still can not find the best setting for it ... any way, i will try to read it in my free time, may be i can find some interesting stuff there some day ...
  • #2,174
  • Feb 27, 2022 1:09pm Feb 27, 2022 1:09pm
Quoting venkatredy
{quote} {image}
Hi V, take a look at the chart. Your pic showed the day high for Friday, that's why I asked you at that specific time before London market. Is there a way to figure out that's the day high? I use this example to demonstrate the type of thinking about lines and levels. This is the type of knowledge traders must somehow try to acquire that will give answers to your questions. Answer to my question is price stop at day high.

I know it's hard. Imagine how much time George spent studying the details to gather the knowledge he shared on his threads. The way I share is to post charts. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #2,175
  • Feb 27, 2022 4:33pm Feb 27, 2022 4:33pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi V, take a look at the chart. Your pic showed the day high for Friday, that's why I asked you at that specific time before London market. Is there a way to figure out that's the day high? I use this example to demonstrate the type of thinking about lines and levels. This is the type of knowledge traders must somehow try to acquire that will give answers to your questions. Answer to my question is price stop at day high. I know it's hard. Imagine how much time George spent studying the details to gather the knowledge he shared on...

Is their a way to figure out the day’s high ?

Good question...Yes you can with 99.99% certainty and here's how.
There are 78-5M bars in a trading session i.e. The US30 SP500 etc...
from the morning open at 630 EST till the close.

Over 30 years of data tells us that :

5 minute bars
Bar 1 : 20% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day.
Bar 7 : 50% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day.
Bar 13 : 70% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day.
Bar 18 : 90% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day.
Bar 78 : 99% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day.

What jumps out to you ? To me is Bar 13 and upwards .. (make a mental note)

What if you could know with a high degree of probability that the daily HI/LOW has been reached ?

Probabilities in relationship to Context, Content and Confluence of Day of week,Time, Price, Price Action is what helps me overcome something i eluded to in my recent post I believe....and that is Apophenia https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post13903512 Flying Dutchman thread

How does this all relate to “profitable trading” well.... that's a lot to go into. But this gives aglimpse of just some of the details that really matter.

I must also say I have lines on my chart as I am old fashioned and believe in the importance of
the Open price of the current day and the previous days Open High and Low. All are very important TARGETS to me.. Remember TARGETS TARGETS TARGETS as George always, always stressed.

Here's another thought on Probabilities... And so called “RANDOMNESS” of markets

What if I was trading the US30 and I see Friday had failed to trade above Thursdays highs.
What has that have to do with PROBABILITIES or RANDOMNESS ?
What does that have to do with my BIAS for Monday ? Hmmmm

Well i will tell you that there is a 95% chance Monday will trade lower ... Not so random for the randomness markets should be eh. Makes one wonder about the other days of the week. And i will tell you there are other high probability daily patterns like this.

And i must not take credit for all of this..The credit goes to Tom Hougaard and Al Brooks. I have researched more myself as well and incorporate all of this in my daily trading.

Here's a thought what would one do on a Monday US morning session.. Looking at the 5M chart we are at bar 13 or bar 18 and price has formed a double top at bar 18 or thereabouts... And price is nearing Fridays high... I know what i would do...I would short hard.



Another scenario... where Wednesday closes in comparison to Monday and Tuesday gives you a 84% probability that Thursday will trade lower than Wednesday.. Again one has to think how to use this significant edge to your advantage...

Anyways... just wanted to throw out some ideas to those of you that may choose to add these high probability scenarios to your Trading Toolbox.

Ive attached a chart marked up. Its PART PART PART of how i trade. What i dont show is a previous long just after the open for 15 pts. Which was off the 1M.... And I apologize for the complete lack of USELESS indicators.... I prefer LINES !

Cheers
Blue


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SPX SETUP.png Size: 51 KB
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #2,176
  • Feb 27, 2022 5:03pm Feb 27, 2022 5:03pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} Is their a way to figure out the day’s high ? Good question...Yes you can with 99.99% certainty and here's how. There are 78-5M bars in a trading session i.e. The US30 SP500 etc... from the morning open at 630 EST till the close. Over 30 years of data tells us that : 5 minute bars Bar 1 : 20% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day. Bar 7 : 50% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day. Bar 13 : 70% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day. Bar 18 : 90% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day. Bar 78 : 99% probability of...

Awesome post Kev.

Andy.
  • #2,177
  • Feb 27, 2022 5:15pm Feb 27, 2022 5:15pm
Quoting lasttry
{quote} Hi MB, So every one knows that TMA is repaint, agree with it ... it repaints badly, un fortunately-... yes, if is the fact.... one clue: i read some where that we can use some kind of MA (we know that MA are Not repaint, but it is other than SMA) to replace it, but until today i still can not find the best setting for it ... any way, i will try to read it in my free time, may be i can find some interesting stuff there some day ...
George waited for price to enter the kill zone based on analysis of higher time frames.
Once he was certain a trade MIGHT be available he TIMED the entry of the trade using his TMA, settings are in the first thread!
TIMED is the operative word, not because of.
If price is in his kill zone the TMA was confirmation only.
  • #2,178
  • Feb 27, 2022 6:56pm Feb 27, 2022 6:56pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} Is their a way to figure out the day’s high ? Good question...Yes you can with 99.99% certainty and here's how. There are 78-5M bars in a trading session i.e. The US30 SP500 etc... from the morning open at 630 EST till the close. Over 30 years of data tells us that : 5 minute bars Bar 1 : 20% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day. Bar 7 : 50% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day. Bar 13 : 70% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day. Bar 18 : 90% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day. Bar 78 : 99% probability of...
Awesome post Kev, this is the type of post I was hoping to read which is rare.

The purpose why I made both posts to V is to tell there's much to think about when we analyse the charts. Most traders are "indicator" traders of some sort, they have stop thinking beyond "indicators". They trust their favourite "indicators" so much that their understanding, narrative, analysis and trades are centered on "indicators". That's all we read about on FF.

Kev has written the details he think about when he look at the chart. He wrote only the tip of the iceberg, imagine how much more knowledge he gathered in his decades of trading experience.

Both V and lasttry asked valid difficult questions that every trader have those same questions that has no ready made answers, no curriculum to study.

In summary, there are 2 points I want to make. First is the type of knowledge we have to gather. Kev answered that part beautifully, thank you sir. Second, from this first part, without ready made curriculum and past year answers to refer to, traders have to figure all that up from thin air. This is the representation of the effort and time that traders put in studying the chart. It simply means lots of hard work with creative thinking to gather small bits of info, one at a time, and eventually it becomes a personal trading library.

Last, I posted a chart on flying Dutchman thread. It's not to boast. My purpose is the same as these 2 posts I made on this thread. Do you know where price stop? The entry at the day high. Take a look at where price ended at eod. Perhaps this few posts explain why I don't scalp this market. The journey ahead is a long difficult and frustrating one, the same for all of us traders. I can tell you nothing is impossible. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #2,179
  • Mar 3, 2022 8:34pm Mar 3, 2022 8:34pm
Quoting lasttry
{quote}
Hi Pete, This is interesting ... to work on that above you mentioned, do we need the "same Time-frame" of reversing or going through to the next "herd mentality" ? i think the probability can be calculated at any Time frame. if i am not wrong .... i mean that this "herd mentality" is actually some kind of psychological "level" , Not exactly ... but may be similar in its function, or you mean some thing else ?????

Quoting venkatredy
{quote} Hi mike. Some clarification mike why George mention target with herdmentality at above george post . Just to place stoploss order of herd mentality traders at previous top/ bottom ( Target)


Hi LT & V,

Guys, if you can, please defocus immediately for a minute from herd mentality.

Herd Mentality Validation is a longer term setup.
Often 3+ days in the making. Why do you want to stare at a chart for 3+ days hoping to find a reason for trade entry?
(Unless that’s your SOLE trading personality behaviour, which I then accept no probs).


In the interim maybe have a quick look at today’s GU chart below.
And contemplate a quite remarkable, if not repetitive & “consistent” behaviour, of the market.

Yes, the market has A behaviour, repeatable & observable (in most of my posted charts, I reckon).

THOUGH often ONLY observable, in its FULLNESS, at the conclusion of the price runs.
NOT in the middle, where a trader might freeze not knowing at that point if price will still rise OR fall.

I call it the Traders’ Dilemma, the Two Horns of Misery.


However, the middle of a price run move (from one of it's edge endings) is where a discretionary trader,
based on NOTHING MORE than long-term observation, will have their edge (their magic, if you will).

And I don't mean picking those 'edge ending' points precisely, to the pip, I leave that to those with more info or data.
But when you get a grip on what I mean by 'not precisely' (ie trade with logical confirmations & confluence) you may get a head-start or leg-up.


I trust you guys are still working on the Training Simulator, running all the candles in their “quick mode”.

That way you don’t have to suffer a ‘burnout’ of just staring at charts in their laboriously slower ‘real time’,
and ending up often in a hypnotic state, or maybe suffering a debilitating effect from all the "gazing without purpose".

all the best
Pete

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM15 scalping the behaviour.png Size: 25 KB
  • #2,180
  • Mar 3, 2022 9:31pm Mar 3, 2022 9:31pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: KEVsSPr.png Size: 85 KB

Trade the lines - George, CrucialPoint, Billytt

"The comprehension is a scalper's delight" - Timetells

or keep adding more to PlanetX

or keep a record
+0.5% eurusd
+10% gbpusd
+200% dogcoin
+110% corkcoin
+500% shitcoin
0 traders viewing now