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Attachments: Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #7,121
  • Feb 16, 2022 8:14am Feb 16, 2022 8:14am
Quoting parisboy
These Lows are of the same nature, order, degree.. But they are of a lower degree than those of the previous Charts These present Lows touch the Lower Limit of the Envelope 32 (blue) The previous ones of the first chart were slightly under and slightly above theLower Lilit of Envelpe 256 (brown) Graphically we do not know if the break of the Ascending VTL is areal Action Signal fr a candidate Short or a false positive. If and when we openen a short position a key informatin to have is to be able to estimate the potential amplitude of the short Swing...
Fabulous set of posts Parisboy. Thanks for taking the time and showing us the way!
When there's a will, there's a way.
  • #7,122
  • Feb 16, 2022 8:23am Feb 16, 2022 8:23am
Quoting Tebzaor
{quote} Hi can you please share this indicator
Come on now, get curious and search the thread. Read some stuff about it before just wanting to plug an indicator in.

I'll refer you to Swede's post where he shared the indicator.
When there's a will, there's a way.
  • #7,123
  • Edited 8:47am Feb 16, 2022 8:36am | Edited 8:47am
So obviously that break was a false break. One can sorta predict that a break could be false, IMHO, by paying attention to these points:

1- Breaks during low volume sessions. (EURUSD has low liquidity in Asian session, compared to Europe and NY session)
So we could've been suspicious about that break and just wait and see how NY acts.
(Which btw is actually what I always do as I only trade NY session. Asian sessions I mostly just observe. Mostly never trade.)

2- Better to look for trend changes in the Hourly charts since their indications are always more correct than lower timeframes.

3- Had you even considered going short, 5min Heiken candles didn't give you a signal. Therefore you wouldn't go short at the pullback:

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And a very important point, which I think is the most important for a trader to get through their thick head:

Probabilities! You win some, you lose some!
When there's a will, there's a way.
  • #7,124
  • Feb 16, 2022 8:39am Feb 16, 2022 8:39am
Considering going long if I get a retrace. Price action is too fast now.

Trend continuation at its finest. 1 Hour 32 envelopes still pointing up.

Now I'm seeing what people mean when they say, "you just go with the trend! Nothing easier than that!"

And it can really be

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When there's a will, there's a way.
  • #7,125
  • Feb 16, 2022 8:44am Feb 16, 2022 8:44am
Explanations will follow !
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  • #7,126
  • Feb 16, 2022 8:46am Feb 16, 2022 8:46am
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  • #7,127
  • Feb 16, 2022 9:08am Feb 16, 2022 9:08am
Going short on the US30.

Why?

1- Focal point on the recent upmove of the hourly= upmove is over. So price action is going to be sideways or down.
2- Break of 256 envelope center on 15 min.

However, two points are contradictory here to me:

We're at the lower limit of the 32 envelope on the hourly. And also on the 15 min.

Should be interesting.

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When there's a will, there's a way.
  • #7,128
  • Feb 16, 2022 9:11am Feb 16, 2022 9:11am
Quoting craig65
{quote} can you share the fib channel tool?
Go to your inserts tab/channels/Fibonacci...every mt4 has it as standard
  • #7,129
  • Feb 16, 2022 9:11am Feb 16, 2022 9:11am
Attachment g
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  • #7,130
  • Feb 16, 2022 9:27am Feb 16, 2022 9:27am
Everyone be aware FOMC minutes in a few hours...this can trump the most perfect setup so be careful....
  • #7,131
  • Feb 16, 2022 9:27am Feb 16, 2022 9:27am
Ok, tell me when I'm flooding and I'll stop posting lol

Looking to go long when/if price comes back a little and gives an entry on the lower channel made by focal points. (though based on the recent focal point of the down move, I doubt it comes lower)

Or even at the break of the mid-channel and I'll go long there.

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When there's a will, there's a way.
  • #7,132
  • Feb 16, 2022 9:28am Feb 16, 2022 9:28am
Quoting MoeinYzz
Going short on the US30. Why? 1- Focal point on the recent upmove of the hourly= upmove is over. So price action is going to be sideways or down. 2- Break of 256 envelope center on 15 min. However, two points are contradictory here to me: We're at the lower limit of the 32 envelope on the hourly. And also on the 15 min. Should be interesting. {image}
Very nice !
  • #7,133
  • Feb 16, 2022 9:29am Feb 16, 2022 9:29am
Quoting Swede
Everyone be aware FOMC minutes in a few hours...this can trump the most perfect setup so be careful....
Totally forgot about that lol. Thanks for reminding us.

This system can get so engaging sometimes, you forget there's a big event around the corner.
When there's a will, there's a way.
  • #7,134
  • Edited 9:48am Feb 16, 2022 9:34am | Edited 9:48am
Quoting MoeinYzz
{quote} Totally forgot about that lol. Thanks for reminding us. This system can get so engaging sometimes, you forget there's a big event around the corner.
This is at 12:00 mountain standard time...3 and a half hours from now.

ps.....if there is an interest rate adjustment which many expect, the markets will react strongly. And stops won’t help you because once a stop is triggered your order will be filled at the next available price, which in the case of GU could be 75 pips...
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  • #7,135
  • Edited 12:01pm Feb 16, 2022 9:56am | Edited 12:01pm
New traders, or those without a firm trade plan/ method, look to new indicators or methods to find the holy grail technically, only to have their ass handed to them when a major news event comes out, in others words not paying attention to fundamentals.

At all times, know the landscape/environment your trading in. That would be lesson one if I were training a new or novice trader.

ps...look at the chart attached, another reason for using stops on every trade, you never know when a simple news thingy comes over the wire and boom, your cable trade goes south 70 pips, and it was only rumour at this point..
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  • #7,136
  • Feb 16, 2022 10:49am Feb 16, 2022 10:49am
Beautiful example of patience.

Going long on the break and retest of the mid channel made by connecting two focal points.

Have a good edge here. The rest is probabilities ; )


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When there's a will, there's a way.
  • #7,137
  • Feb 16, 2022 12:03pm Feb 16, 2022 12:03pm
Quoting MoeinYzz
Beautiful example of patience. Going long on the break and retest of the mid channel made by connecting two focal points. Have a good edge here. The rest is probabilities ; ) {image}
Only thing holding your Euro trade back is the directionless market waiting for fomc.....it can chop u up until the news is out and disseminated.
  • #7,138
  • Feb 16, 2022 12:16pm Feb 16, 2022 12:16pm
US30 1h ......standby mode.....waiting FOMC.... it seems want to go SOUTH
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  • #7,139
  • Feb 16, 2022 12:30pm Feb 16, 2022 12:30pm
One a major news day, I like to use a bare chart to guage where the market openned at the start of the week, the high and the low up to the news event, often gives me a pretty clear picture what to expect one way or the other.....
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  • #7,140
  • Feb 16, 2022 1:00pm Feb 16, 2022 1:00pm
Quoting Swede
{quote} Only thing holding your Euro trade back is the directionless market waiting for fomc.....it can chop u up until the news is out and disseminated.
Well said. Rarely can you see pairs move good before a major news event.

Had to run an errand for an hour so stops were moved to breakeven. Stopped at breakeven for the EURUSD.

Closed US30 now minutes before the Fed minutes : )

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Let's get ready to rummmmble!
When there's a will, there's a way.
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