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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Quoting Kwt4x
{quote} Hi trumps, since your chart is 12months candle, the current candle is a LIVE candle and has 10 months to go for close, you can not base your decisions or reading on live candle unless closed. a weekly chart with period separator show 1 year/52 bars. an indicator like Donchian Channel calculate high/low/50% of a period close (in this case 52 is the setting) a ZZ with 13 setting give you the reading(HHHL-LHLL) of 3 months (1/4 of a year) {image} from the chart you can see last year high broke per 2 years highs 2019-2020 but not 2018. last...
Your ZZ swings are marking off the MN1/MN2 swings. So, it is clear that MN3 with MN12 doesn't tell enough of the story: You need to check Y2 and Y3 as well. In fact, you should really look at the full historical record to see the down trend from about 1972-1985, then the up trend from 1985-2008, then down trend from 2008-2020.

And, as I said before, it is highly likely that this down trend has ended and a new up trend is in progress. Of course, because currently MN2 is most likely in a mere pullback, more time must unfold to determine if it remains a mere pullback, or if the swing up was actually just another rally rather than the start of the reversal.

Also, I think that making an arbitrary decision to trade based on yearly levels is very illogical. Swings do not adhere to some calendar-based schedule. Such a system will be cutting into the the middle of long swings and missing shorter swings. For example, from the 2020 low in March is the start of the MN8 up swing and possibly even the MN16. And when does that swing end? So far, it has ended as far as the MN2 in June of 2021; we don't know yet for any of the higher TFs. Of course it is POSSIBLE to create a trading system using the prior year's H/L, but I think it would not be very simple and need a lot of rules.
The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
Quoting Moty
unlucky {image}
I think that luck had a minor role in it.
what about scaling out when new highs can't be reached? Or setting a trailing stop? No luck needed to do either of those.

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The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Your ZZ swings are marking off the MN1/MN2 swings. So, it is clear that MN3 with MN12 doesn't tell enough of the story: You need to check Y2 and Y3 as well. In fact, you should really look at the full historical record to see the down trend from about 1972-1985, then the up trend from 1985-2008, then down trend from 2008-2020. And, as I said before, it is highly likely that this down trend has ended and a new up trend is in progress. Of course, because currently MN2 is most likely in a mere pullback, more time must unfold to determine if...
I'm trying to be closest to his mindset my friend

no point in using advanced measurements since no one is interested in math

zoomed out

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zoomed in

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cheers,
  • Post #651,864
  • Quote
  • Edited Feb 13, 2022 9:57am Feb 12, 2022 12:07pm | Edited Feb 13, 2022 9:57am
If Friday's Dly and the Wkly candle just closed could talk they might say 'we are undecided this week having tried going down and up, but are mildly bullish.' Ie the candles are both essentially indecision candles in and of themselves, with small bullish bodies. It was a 'pump and dump' scenario on both thurs and fri particularly.

* Dly - LL, H, HL and HH are the last few fractal prints on Dly so more bullish than bearish but no uptrend yet.
* Wkly - After 4 consecutive LH's we now have a HL, so still trending down but showing recent signs of strength on this t/f.
* 4Hr - a mess lol - rangy.

As suggested in my last post the prev 4hr/dly/minor wkly sw lo zone down to 3490 and the prev 4hr/dly sw hi zone to 3662 are the immediate potential supp and res zones respectively that contains the rangy conditions on 4hr and below, ie effectively 3603-62 to the upside, and 3522-3490 to the downside.

If the Russia/Ukraine thing kicks off for real this coming week, and if history is anything to go by, we will likely see a flight to safety/risk off scenario play out, at least in the short-term. Busy week coming up re data with U.s PPi, Retail sales, and Fomc minutes, and Uk Cpi/Rpi/PPi and Retail sales, being the probable highlights.

Will be trading Mon-Weds and then still hoping to go away for 2 weeks on Thurs.

Wkly & Dly below.
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Intraday (mainly) swing scalper via a Supp/Res & Pa based edge
Quoting Kwt4x
{quote} I'm trying to be closest to his mindset my friend no point in using advanced measurements since no one is interested in math zoomed out {image} zoomed in {image} cheers,
no point in using advanced measurements since no one is interested in math

1. Who is using advanced measurements???? I simply said look at swings! No measurements needed for that.
2. You are clearly wrong in stating that no one is interested in math.

And your copious lines on the chart mean nothing to anyone if you don't give some information about what they are. Swings, on the other hand, are learned in Trading 101.
The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
Quoting Headland
If Friday's Dly and the Wkly candle just closed could talk they might say 'we are undecided this week having tried going down and up, but are mildly bullish.' Ie the candles are both essentially indecision candles in and of themselves, with small bullish bodies. It was a 'pump and dump' scenario on both thurs and fri particularly. * Dly - LL, H, HL and HH are the last few fractal prints on Dly so more bullish than bearish but no uptrend yet. * Wkly - After 4 consecutive LH's we now have a HL, so still trending down but showing recent signs of strength...
It remembers me George8Aus " Herd Mentaliy Zones"
Quoting Kwt4x
{quote} Hi trumps, since your chart is 12months candle, the current candle is a LIVE candle and has 10 months to go for close, you can not base your decisions or reading on live candle unless closed. a weekly chart with period separator show 1 year/52 bars. an indicator like Donchian Channel calculate high/low/50% of a period close (in this case 52 is the setting) a ZZ with 13 setting give you the reading(HHHL-LHLL) of 3 months (1/4 of a year) {image} from the chart you can see last year high broke per 2 years highs 2019-2020 but not 2018. last...
Hi Kwt4x,
I'm not making any decisions at this point, simply pointing out that the hammer has not yet had a close above it.
There are other things on my chart that hint at my bias, but I am flat right now, waiting for more clarity.
We can go up and down the TF's to look for Sup/Res/TL clues, then look lower TF's for some form of signal.
That's what I'm doing.
Cheers
Good Vibes - In charts we trust
Pulchra All Time Return: -88.4%
Quoting DrDave
{quote} no point in using advanced measurements since no one is interested in math 1. Who is using advanced measurements???? I simply said look at swings! No measurements needed for that. 2. You are clearly wrong in stating that no one is interested in math. And your copious lines on the chart mean nothing to anyone if you don't give some information about what they are. Swings, on the other hand, are learned in Trading 101.
measurements are needed to organize everything.

the fractal system is waves within waves, my original 3M reading will be within the Y2 Y3 that you suggested, so, we are both right. but inside the year smaller readings are more tradable.

I don't see much of math charts, that's the reason of my comment. I don't mind to be wrong.

posting the chart was not to explain it, I was agreeing with you on historical swing reading. but to explain it, it's full 360 cycles of 2 4 8 and 16 angled grids.

cheers,
Quoting trumps
{quote} Hi Kwt4x, I'm not making any decisions at this point, simply pointing out that the hammer has not yet had a close above it. There are other things on my chart that hint at my bias, but I am flat right now, waiting for more clarity. We can go up and down the TF's to look for Sup/Res/TL clues, then look lower TF's for some form of signal. That's what I'm doing. Cheers
best wish's my friend

cheers,
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not euphoria follower
...4hr shows the last candle close before the w/e break on this t/f was a bearish engulf (gmt+2 4hr feed.) Is this a clue as to near-term future price discovery at open and beyond? The t/f is clearly ranging and you can see all the potential res and supp above and below current price respectively. These have been hit several times so theoretically must be weakened. As I discussed in my last post, whilst Friday and last week as a whole closed mildly bullish but it is anyone's guess as to which way this current range/consolidation will break. I'll leave the predictions and forecasts to those that believe they have that gift, and/or think that it is necessary in trading.

Just on a geo-political point you can bet China will be watching 'the west's' reaction to the Ukraine thing, particularly if it kicks off for real, in respect of their intentions towards Taiwan.

4hr below.
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Intraday (mainly) swing scalper via a Supp/Res & Pa based edge
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} An important area for bulls folks, More importantly, can we close the day above 1.35500? Trade safe, Cheers. {image}
Hi Guys, Interesting scenario unfolding. We have not had a daily close above 1.35500 in the past week, let alone a weekly close. We have also not had a daily close below my, monthly pivot at 1.35172. Could this be a major support/res zone development? Seeing that this is significant I will treat both scenarios quite seriously with a daily breakout and close of both above or below.
For panicked scalpers without stop losses, my future weekly pivot at 1.35602 should be attained.
We have had weekly higher highs and higher lows so from this perspective I remain Bullish until the 20th of this month at least.
Take note: a daily close below 1.3500 especially will be a sign that bears are stepping in.
Have a great week,
Cheers.
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Trade to Trade another day.
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Forex is Easy, when you know the secrets....
Quoting hoda
{image}
That's a nice analysis, but I prefer a smoother, less cluttered view like this simple D2 line alone. It shows clearly this up continuation (that is riding on the W2 up swing)

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The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
in my view based on the 4 hourly chart we are in wave 4.....i still have a target of 1.41 or so.
Quoting DrDave
{quote} no point in using advanced measurements since no one is interested in math 1. Who is using advanced measurements???? I simply said look at swings! No measurements needed for that. 2. You are clearly wrong in stating that no one is interested in math. And your copious lines on the chart mean nothing to anyone if you don't give some information about what they are. Swings, on the other hand, are learned in Trading 101.

Speak for yourself Drdave I love Math.
Whatever weekly may try still in bear setup of big ranges like eurusd! So bear favored till there any bull set up of similar ranges develops! Take care
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Quoting fontu
Whatever weekly may try still in bear setup of bi ranges like eurusd! So bear favored till there any bull set up of similar ranges develops! Take care {image} {image} {image}
LOL
Quoting ninner
{quote} Speak for yourself Drdave I love Math.
Did you miss this part of my reply??

"2. You are clearly wrong in stating that no one is interested in math."
The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Did you miss this part of my reply?? "2. You are clearly wrong in stating that no one is interested in math."

LOL
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