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Flying Dutchman

  • #721
  • Edited Feb 10, 2022 1:07am Feb 9, 2022 10:34pm | Edited Feb 10, 2022 1:07am
As I'm bored and waiting for London Open thoughts drift back to what I would consider to be the glory days of UK music...
I don't usually like videos dumped onto a thread but if I were to choose a piece of music suitable for the thread, i think I would have gone for this classic...
Here's to 1000 years of winding up the French.. long may it continue..

Inserted Video
  • #722
  • Feb 9, 2022 10:41pm Feb 9, 2022 10:41pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Exactly. That's target traders. Now here's the rub, should we trust our calculated limits or trust the here and now futures volume delta? This explains the divide between target traders and futures volume delta traders, what we trust.
Targets. Can't look beyond that. No need to.
  • #723
  • Feb 9, 2022 10:50pm Feb 9, 2022 10:50pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Targets. Can't look beyond that. No need to.
The criticism against target traders is that the projected target is simply guessing, there's no tangible basis. Why trust a guessed projection when there's real live futures volume data?

Criticism against futures volume data traders is that data is not representative of the decentralised FX market. And it's limited to very short term reactive scalping with no possibility of scalability.

Different strokes for different folks. There's a lot of reasons behind our individual preference. Our choice may not be due to accuracy and reliability.

The common ground is we project into the future either from the here and now or from the past.
Know what you trade
  • #724
  • Feb 9, 2022 10:54pm Feb 9, 2022 10:54pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} The criticism against target traders is that the projected target is simply guessing, there's no tangible basis. Why trust a guessed projection when there's real live futures volume data? Criticism against futures volume data traders is that data is not representative of the decentralised FX market. And it's limited to very short term reactive scalping with no possibility of scalability. Different strokes for different folks. There's a lot of reasons behind our individual preference. The common ground is we either project from the here and...
Pete just messaged me to say that BWilliam had just made a ripper of a post...and he was right!
  • #725
  • Feb 9, 2022 10:59pm Feb 9, 2022 10:59pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} The criticism against target traders is that the projected target is simply guessing, there's no tangible basis. Why trust a guessed projection when there's real live futures volume data? Criticism against futures volume data traders is that data is not representative of the decentralised FX market. And it's limited to very short term reactive scalping with no possibility of scalability. Different strokes for different folks. There's a lot of reasons behind our individual preference. The common ground is we project into the future either...
Targets can be mathematically produced from two sets of data points, one of which tells me the expected direction the market will take.
No chart work, just numbers.
  • #726
  • Feb 10, 2022 2:02am Feb 10, 2022 2:02am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} If you are making money with a non bias (gender neutral..) EA then you have achieved more than 99% of people who have also built a non biased EA. I have to disagree with you..(hell, its about time) that a staged market cannot be programmed into an algo..., I think the staged market is just that, a program, that can be reverse engineered, have I achieved that, no, I doubt anyone could, but we can give it a good shot and get to a reliable, working model.
Wait -- then we kind of agree (sorry to disappoint you). I also said a staged market couldn't be programmed -- and I was referring to a simple EA.

When I refer to an algorithm I'm referring to the simple algebra that gets coded into an MT4 EA. I understand that you advocate for a "master algo" -- I don't have a strong opinion about that and I'm not prepared to debate it. Not because I question its existence but, rather, because it doesn't come into play the way I trade -- or, if it does, it's in the background someplace.

What I found was that most EAs eventually fail because they are focused on Entry / Exit signals and the false positives eventually do you in. It's the "money management" (and I want to leave it at that) that can turn a losing EA into a winner.
  • #727
  • Feb 10, 2022 2:12am Feb 10, 2022 2:12am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Natural body temperature has a high low limit. We don't know about the detail fluctuations therefore random(washing machine - moodybot) but we do know in advance the maximum, minimum limit(Pete's targets and inflexion points).
Same as forex -- even I can look at any chart at any time and guesstimate the high and low of the current channel. But what I'm talking about are the temperatures in between the high and low. Suppose you were to log your temperature every 30 seconds for the next two weeks. If you then chart it it would look **exactly** like a price chart. A price chart has its y-axis scaled so you only see the upper 0.001%. A temperature chart would look very similar. Your current temperature would fluctuate about 1% within a channel.
  • #728
  • Feb 10, 2022 2:22am Feb 10, 2022 2:22am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} I have it under very good authority that ohitsyou would prefer a core sample!
Don't knock it until you've tried it...
  • #729
  • Feb 10, 2022 2:43am Feb 10, 2022 2:43am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi BW, I will continue to watch cTs thread, from afar, lol What you guys say is very true about the blame required for someones losses. However, cT is moving into an interesting tease at the moment, regarding the maths formulas and the Markov probability principles. From what "little" I know of Markov was in relation to "casino gambling" (they tried it with horseracing and it didn't quite work I think because the number & amount of variables - which went past 20 I think - shut it down). The useability of Markov as I understand...
It seems that cT is pushing the premise the market is random and is continuing down that path with his Markov analysis. Someone should ask him to prove it -- i.e. what's his evidence. Otherwise he risks misleading struggling traders...
  • #730
  • Edited 6:07am Feb 10, 2022 5:26am | Edited 6:07am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Exactly. That's target traders. Now here's the rub, should we trust our calculated limits or trust the here and now futures volume delta? This explains the divide between target traders and futures volume delta traders, what we trust. Futures volume delta is limited to small tf, hence scalping. There's no limit for targets although its mostly used with higher tf.
You ask whether we should trust calculated limits or futures volume data. But most of us don't have access to futures volume data or understand how to incorporate it into our trading. I would like to be able to participate in answering your question but I'm missing too many pieces to the puzzle. Maybe I'm alone -- I don't know. And if you respond that I need to do my own research then I get it. But, to be honest, if you don't hold my hand and point me in the right direction then I'm not interested. At this point in my trading career I'm not prepared to go exploring without knowing there will be a light at the end of the tunnel. And that's just me -- I'm not making a general statement about what anyone else should or shouldn't do.

My EAs can only trade what they see...
  • #731
  • Feb 10, 2022 3:26pm Feb 10, 2022 3:26pm
Today could be a good day...lets see!
  • #732
  • Feb 10, 2022 9:13pm Feb 10, 2022 9:13pm
Just some more random , stuff for the morning, the Dutchman still Flys & Floats
- while all the Yen Crosses sleep (Bank Holiday)

All the yens were well worked yesterday (Thurs) and would also give any newcomer to Fx a perfect look at why some folk may consider the markets are very
‘well worked organised’. (edit)

GJ price spiking during NY session and returning before market close RIGHT back to where they came from

(are the markets left to total random chance, we are still awaiting a quantified outcome)().


Okay, now some real random stuff


Q. Who named the Aussie biscuit (ie American cookie) the TIM TAM ?

A. Ross Arnott (who was born into the wealthy Arnott’s biscuit family).


In 1958 Ross apparently travelled from Australia to the USA to attend the running of the Kentucky Derby.

He had a flutter on the winner and, you’ve guessed the horse’s name by now.

In 1964, and the launch of a new style biscuit, Ross suggested they call the treat, the TIM TAM

(like many punters, maybe Ross hadn’t backed another winner in those six years & it was the only name he could remember).


And, as often happens in our circuitous world, in 2008 Pepperidge Farm started “importing” the Aussie cookie/oops/biscuit, the Tim Tam, over into the United States.

I couldn’t find a video of the biscuit Tim Tam,
but I found one on courageous ol’ Tim Tam the horse (#3)

(The entire went on to sire 14 subsequent Stakes winners. He lived to the ripe old age of 27 and by all accounts would have won the Triple Crown that year in ’58, after also winning the Preakness, but for fracturing a sesamoid bone late in the Belmont, and still hobbling across the line to finished second).


Tim Tam - the Kentucky Derby ‘58

(edit: no audio, sorry, it isnt your speakers)

Inserted Video
  • #733
  • Feb 10, 2022 9:31pm Feb 10, 2022 9:31pm
Quoting TimeTells
Just some more random , stuff for the morning, the Dutchman still Flys & Floats - while all the Yen Crosses sleep (Bank Holiday) All the yens were well worked yesterday (Thurs) and would also give any newcomer to Fx a perfect look at why some folk may consider the markets are very ‘well worked organised’. (edit) GJ price spiking during NY session and returning before market close RIGHT back to where they came from (are the markets left to total random chance, we are still awaiting a quantified outcome)(). Okay,...
Australia has some history then Pete.. who would have though that …..
  • #734
  • Feb 10, 2022 9:52pm Feb 10, 2022 9:52pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote}
Australia has some history then Pete.. who would have though that …..
So we have two, a biscuit AND a racehorse Andy

Well the legendary Phar Lap was foaled in New Zealand,

so we better reduce it back to one biscuit and a shared horse (the Champ did all his racing in Oz, after purchase)
  • #735
  • Feb 10, 2022 10:02pm Feb 10, 2022 10:02pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} So we have two, a biscuit AND a racehorse Andy Well the legendary Phar Lap was foaled in New Zealand, so we better reduce it back to one biscuit and a shared horse (the Champ did all his racing in Oz, after purchase)
Haha
  • #736
  • Feb 11, 2022 12:51am Feb 11, 2022 12:51am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} So we have two, a biscuit AND a racehorse Andy Well the legendary Phar Lap was foaled in New Zealand, so we better reduce it back to one biscuit and a shared horse (the Champ did all his racing in Oz, after purchase)
What about Kangaroos?
  • #737
  • Feb 11, 2022 1:58am Feb 11, 2022 1:58am
Quoting ohitsyou
{quote} What about Kangaroos?
You have probably never come across Roger the red Kangaroo that used to terrorise blokes leaving a local watering hole (pub) … the local newspaper described Roger as 6 foot tall, ripped and built like a brick shit house!
  • #738
  • Feb 11, 2022 10:22am Feb 11, 2022 10:22am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} So we have two, a biscuit AND a racehorse Andy Well the legendary Phar Lap was foaled in New Zealand, so we better reduce it back to one biscuit and a shared horse (the Champ did all his racing in Oz, after purchase)
But what a biscuit ! Salted Caramel Tim Tam's are the food of gods.......
  • #739
  • Edited 6:12pm Feb 11, 2022 5:49pm | Edited 6:12pm
Quoting rogerha
{quote}
But what a biscuit ! Salted Caramel Tim Tam's are the food of gods.......

Now you're talking pal

(About 20 years ago they also brought the Tim Tam out with a tiny liqueur flavour, like Kahlua, but the "lobbies" jumped all over it so they abandoned it).
  • #740
  • Feb 12, 2022 1:19am Feb 12, 2022 1:19am
Quoting TimeTells
Just some more random , stuff for the morning, the Dutchman still Flys & Floats - while all the Yen Crosses sleep (Bank Holiday) All the yens were well worked yesterday (Thurs) and would also give any newcomer to Fx a perfect look at why some folk may consider the markets are very ‘well worked organised’. (edit) GJ price spiking during NY session and returning before market close RIGHT back to where they came from (are the markets left to total random chance, we are still awaiting a quantified outcome)(). Okay,...
Hi Pete, since it's the weekend I thought I go into some details and charts about target traders.

Here are 3 charts, daily, H4 and h1 tf. Drew a "long term" static angular line on the daily chart that cuts through the sample space. H4 shows the last 2 months and Feb. H1 shows the last 2+weeks. Depends on which tf the trader sees it, there's Pete's limits and inflexion points.

The market is fractal so "mid--term" and "short term" lines can be similarly drawn that represents a percentage sub-set of the whole, macroscopic and microscopic view so to speak.

Going back to the question of random or "staged", such "anomaly" of coincidences shown on these 3 charts seems to imply "someone" is in control - don't offer value above or below such and such number, that's the unseen instructions in the background for whatever the unknown reason.

If the above presumed interpretation is true then this brings into question whether this higher "authority instruction" about the value on offer guides the market boundary that we trade instead of the actual live volume data. This presumption explains why target traders trust the calculated numbers instead of actual live volume "representative" data or fundamental news. We don't know if it's true but that's the narrative we trust.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: H4.PNG Size: 58 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: H1.PNG Size: 66 KB
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