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Flying Dutchman

  • #701
  • Feb 9, 2022 6:56pm Feb 9, 2022 6:56pm
Quoting ohitsyou
{quote} When we fail we always look for an external excuse -- that's the way we're wired. It has to be that way. Can you imagine if you blamed yourself the first time you got turned down for a date? Our species would never survive... PS: Okay, perhaps some of us like moodybot wouldn't know about that...
Turned down… never..
Although I should have waited to demonstrate a Dutch oven, that didn’t go down to well as I recall..
  • #702
  • Edited 7:33pm Feb 9, 2022 7:20pm | Edited 7:33pm
Quoting TimeTells
Hi OIY Yes I do. My post though was based, not so much on whether a positive 'outcome' can be achieved or not, but on the initial premise by cT that the forex market is random. My understanding, if you can clarify, is that Markov cannot even be used UNLESS the subject of probability under consideration is in fact, RANDOM.
Random is not the point. Random allows for infinite resources and time. My point is that statistics does not take into account the SEQUENCE in which events occur. In the case of trading, the SEQUENCE of wins and losses matters. In baseball the sequence of hits and misses doesn't matter -- all that matters is your 0.250 batting average at the end of the year earns you a million dollar contract. An experienced player may be allowed to stay in the lineup until the end of the year to improve upon his batting average. But in trading your broker won't allow you to keep playing when your account drops below a certain threshold.

Statistics require a minimal sample size -- e.g. 50 trades -- for the results to be considered statistically valid. Random or not, in real-time trading your account may not survive for 50 trades. But in the luxury of your dorm room and playing with MatLab you can always complete 50 trades and compute some results.

PS: I don't think I answered your question. You're focused on 'random' and I'm focused on the limitation of applying statistics. I don't really think much in terms of whether the market is random or not. I see periods of trending, ranging, choppiness, consolidation. Is that random? Chaotic? I don't know -- it's just how it is. If it is not already agreed upon that the system under study is random then it is foolish to waste time applying a statistical metric that assumes randomness. So -- I would agree with you. Not so much because I believe it's not random but, rather, I'm not sure and it doesn't make any difference to me if it is or isn't.
  • #703
  • Feb 9, 2022 7:25pm Feb 9, 2022 7:25pm
Quoting TimeTells
Hi OIY Yes I do. My post though was based, not so much on whether a positive 'outcome' can be achieved or not, but on the initial premise by cT that the forex market is random. My understanding, if you can clarify, is that Markov cannot even be used UNLESS the subject of probability under consideration is in fact, RANDOM.

Immediately we have an issue, random or .... and I'm thinking of a new buzz word to describe how I feel about the market....and that word is it's 'Staged'!
The market is staged, controlled to the 'nth degree... presented in a form that just shouts out which direction it's going to go. It's obvious right!
It's subtle, very subtle, to draw in gamblers, the 99% who claim to trade but actually, just gamble.

I mentioned before in the old days, barrow boys against the higher echelon of academia, barrow boys had to learn how to survive from day 1, not day 1 in a trading environment but day 1 of life.
Frowned upon. Laughed at because they didn't have the wealth or knowledge to succeed, well they did, they prospered and they didn't require Markov or Freddie the Frog to achieve that.
There are people operating on this forum expecting to waltz right in and takeover the trading world... they have always succeeded in life, been the best, eloquent, brash, arrogant...well trading is a leveler.....and sometimes the Old grumpy farts with a basic academic background just might have a handle on what might work.

Andy
  • #704
  • Feb 9, 2022 7:39pm Feb 9, 2022 7:39pm
Quoting ohitsyou
{quote}
Random is not the point.

Hi OIY,

We are talking at cross purposes, mate, so I will let it go.

(edit: thanks for your PS on the post, I get it now don't worry)

For ME the only interesting aspect of Forex is whether or not it is a random behaviour market.
(I concede there are random-like aspects to it, but when I say non-random I mean price has a purpose and that price is going to a SOMEWHERE each session.
That 'somewhere', to me, is not random).

Plus, if the market was truly just 2 ticks up and one tick down for example, with NO PURPOSE OR DESTINATION for price during a session/s, then I cannot continue to trade as it would become just gambling. Again.

And then I might as well go back to my beloved horseracing.


Here I go lol, sorry.
When I was attending the races trackside, with my own probability markets for certain races in my pocket,
I used to go down to the stalls well before the races and just 'natter' with the ponies and watch their reactions to me as a human. I fk'n loved it .


In Forex there is no love/joy like that which I got from the smell, the look, and just being around the horses.


So IF the Forex market is random (which to myself, alone, I have sufficiently proved that it isn't), then I cannot trade it. Just gamble it.

I would then probably just flip a coin in Forex OR maybe wait for the FREE indi that cT will place on the mql5 website as he said he might do at the start of his thread, I think, and then use HIS ea lol. (maybe NOT now after what you just wrote, I would examine it first lol)

BUT

It ain't random, and that's just my belief.

And that is & has always been my belief, and the point with all my charts, the charts aren't for a glorification of artwork, they SHOW me that the market is NOT random lol. That is all.

I DO understand what you are trying to present to others OIY, with YOUR studies of the stats, and comments on Markov, and I thank you very much for your valued input.

But I'm just here in my own room lol, watching a different show on the TV to others I guess (the forex market that is, lol), if you understand my drift.

all the best
Pete
  • #705
  • Feb 9, 2022 7:44pm Feb 9, 2022 7:44pm
Seen a reference on another thread to 'transition matrix'.......I really enjoyed the first four films... will look out for this one!
  • #706
  • Feb 9, 2022 7:48pm Feb 9, 2022 7:48pm
Quoting TimeTells
Hi OIY Yes I do. My post though was based, not so much on whether a positive 'outcome' can be achieved or not, but on the initial premise by cT that the forex market is random. My understanding, if you can clarify, is that Markov cannot even be used UNLESS the subject of probability under consideration is in fact, RANDOM.
From Wikipedia:

"A Markov process is a stochastic process that satisfies the Markov property[1] (sometimes characterized as "memorylessness"). In simpler terms, it is a process for which predictions can be made regarding future outcomes based solely on its present state and—most importantly—such predictions are just as good as the ones that could be made knowing the process's full history.[12] In other words, conditional on the present state of the system, its future and past states are independent."

So, yes, Markov analysis assumes the events are random. Only the present state of the system matters. Future and past states are independent of the current state.

You and I trade differently. Your approach clearly requires that events are not random -- i.e. price is not random. On the surface my algorithmic approach makes no assumptions about randomness -- but because I use indicators then I suppose there is an underlying assumption that price is NOT random. If you trade a trend then the assumption is the next bar will probably be in the same direction as the previous bar -- and that is definitely NOT random.
  • #707
  • Feb 9, 2022 7:51pm Feb 9, 2022 7:51pm
Quoting ohitsyou
{quote}
From Wikipedia: "A Markov process is a stochastic process that satisfies the Markov property[1] (sometimes characterized as "memorylessness"). In simpler terms, it is a process for which predictions can be made regarding future outcomes based solely on its present state and—most importantly—such predictions are just as good as the ones that could be made knowing the process's full history.[12] In other words, conditional on the present state of the system, its future and past states are independent." So, yes, Markov analysis assumes...

Cheers OIY,
You are helpful, as always, much appreciated
  • #708
  • Feb 9, 2022 8:02pm Feb 9, 2022 8:02pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi OIY, We are talking at cross purposes, mate, so I will let it go. (edit: thanks for your PS on the post, I get it now don't worry) For ME the only interesting aspect of Forex is whether or not it is a random behaviour market. (I concede there are random-like aspects to it, but when I say non-random I mean price has a purpose and that price is going to a SOMEWHERE each session. That 'somewhere', to me, is not random). Plus, if the market was truly just 2 ticks up and one tick down for example, with NO PURPOSE OR DESTINATION for price during...
TT -- loved hearing about natter'ing with the ponies -- great story.

You say that price is going somewhere -- sure, that makes sense. Forex is a complex system and price is pulled in different directions. I believe there are feedback mechanisms that keep the price within a channel or envelope. The price drifts from one edge of the channel to the other. The feedback mechanisms are always attempting to pull it toward equilibrium or "fair market value". I think that was one of the things I learned from George's thread.

But having said that, it makes a yuuuge difference at what point in time you know where the price is going. Two weeks in advance or two seconds in advance. Yes -- price is going somewhere -- so what. It seems that observation would only be of value if I knew that somewhere far enough in advance that I could trade it. Do you know what I'm asking?

PS: I think I may be forcing you to bring up targets -- and that wasn't my intention. I get targets. In fact, you may recall I even created an indicator that attempted to draw them. No need to revisit targets. When you mentioned price was going somewhere then I couldn't help ask the question of when do you know where it's going.
  • #709
  • Feb 9, 2022 8:53pm Feb 9, 2022 8:53pm
Quoting ohitsyou
{quote} TT -- loved hearing about natter'ing with the ponies -- great story.
cheers pal

When you mentioned price was going somewhere then I couldn't help ask the question of when do you know where it's going.

Hi OIY,

I'll clear up a few points, hope it's not tooooo long this time, we'll see.


All I will say is there ARE Targets that prices GO to.

The rub is, as you suggest, short-term target, medium-term and long term ones, but which ones AND more importantly when.


I’ll dump poor Andy in here as an example and say that he once showed me his Targets. Two days in advance, and which had already been running for a day, and that YES his price target was achieved in a the course of time. Substantial pips too as I remember. I can't discuss Andy's when sorry.

But to THAT multi day target I would just say, Freaky !!!! (but then Andy ALSO showed me the exact same thing on at least four other chart pairs, ffs, it wasn't a one pair scenario of that same activity which was happening, but across multiple pairs - random, I think not)

So I guess Andy & I are NOT in the random camp.


YET the forex market meanders towards targets, at times, AS IF it WERE random. And THAT I suggest is where traders get into bother.

So if THAT meandering is considered ‘random’ behaviour, then I think we all should give cT a fair crack at it.

I have no idea whether cT will try this on a 1 DAY chart, a 1 hour chart OR a 1 minute chart.

The apparent randomness, I mentioned, sort of “looks to me” to be greatest on the 1 min chart, but NOT necessarily (and I have my thoughts on that also lol).
(So the 1 min is probably where I would suggest cTe begins his studies, but I’m not that qualified to suggest, I’m just another barra-boy lol as Andy says ).


Now once we get my Targets out of the way (well George’s actually, thank you again pal), then something else happened.


BW came along and I listened & listened and he encouraged me AND OTHERS to at least sit down with Forex and examine it on a mathematical basis.

Which I did, and (thanks BW) I now have another level of target/s which I have variously referenced as Inflection, Confluence, Rotation points
(and maybe some more names lol, those targets are not like your puppy that responds to ONLY the one name).

These maths targets I don’t discuss as, even though I KNOW they are not the same at all as BWs more detailed studies (BW did post a comment on a thread to me once where I could see enough to know I was on a fair track) but therefore I would NOT ever speak my studies out - as that is only fair to real good guy who put most of his Forex life into his own studies.


So when I find price “around” both my Targets plus an Inflection point, I know what price might DO and it usually does something from THERE.
While, and again the big RUB in Forex, for me, price can still either go UP or DOWN, so I must wait for CONFIRMATION, confluence has already been established, to present me with a trade that HOPEFULLY (I am a gambler in Forex as such, still I believe, when I push the buy/sell button) might net me (IF I am a lucky gambler lol) say 8-10 pips within a much larger 30-40 pip run.

(BW has of course studied INTENT, and his knowledge in this arena is at a level way above my current).


So, you know I love a long story OIY, sorry

BUT I do not know the exact (ie programmable ) - which is what I was explaining to cT on his thread when he told me he COULD program my statements as numbers, even though I clearly stated at least ONE VARIABLE was “it seemed to me that it was still a sell area”.
So that is what I meant when I finished my post with ... “well, program THAT”. lol



Another long one ffs, sorry folks, I talk like this too, so to finally ANSWER your question.

OIY, I don’t know the when, I do have a WHERE, and then I just let the market show me, I am discretionary, so I cannot really help a coder, even if they think they can codify what I say on here .
  • #710
  • Feb 9, 2022 9:10pm Feb 9, 2022 9:10pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Immediately we have an issue, random or .... and I'm thinking of a new buzz word to describe how I feel about the market....and that word is it's 'Staged'! The market is staged, controlled to the 'nth degree... presented in a form that just shouts out which direction it's going to go. It's obvious right! It's subtle, very subtle, to draw in gamblers, the 99% who claim to trade but actually, just gamble. I mentioned before in the old days, barrow boys against the higher echelon of academia, barrow boys had to learn how to survive from day...
I like the word "staged" -- it implies some control. I wouldn't go so far as to say that it "shouts out" its direction, but it does imply there are some forces at work pulling it in one direction or another. And let's leave out what those forces might be for now. But "staged" is good.

I trade algorithmically and do not explicitly pay attention to the staged market -- and never will. And here's why -- my algorithms just aren't smart enough. They will never hold a candle to your discretionary trading. As a discretionary trader you can take advantage of the staged market that you see. You can see and deduce things that my simple algorithm can not. My algorithm can only see what's in front of its nose. That's one of the compelling things about forex -- different strokes for different folks. What I'm claiming is that treating forex as a staged market works for discretionary trading but doesn't work for algorithmic trading. I'm not looking for a fight. I wish I could program rules into an algorithm that would take into account the staged nature of the market that you see, but I have yet to figure out how to do that. So my algorithms have to be content with more modest gains -- and that suits my trading style.
  • #711
  • Edited 9:29pm Feb 9, 2022 9:16pm | Edited 9:29pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi OIY, I'll clear up a few points, hope it's not tooooo long this time, we'll see. All I will say is there ARE Targets that prices GO to. The rub is, as you suggest, short-term target, medium-term and long term ones, but which ones AND more importantly when. I’ll dump poor Andy in here as an example and say that he once showed me his Targets. Two days in advance, and which had already been running for a day, and that YES his price target was achieved in a the course of time. Substantial pips too as I remember. I can't discuss Andy's when...
TT -- great, great post. Thank you.

We trade differently, but we're on the same page. Because I approach trading from a programmer's point of view then my brain will only see things that it can describe as codable rules. I envy your ability to see a bigger picture.

PS: And though I have all the respect for BW, I don't have the patience to do the math analysis. I've done plenty of data analysis in my day and I just don't feel like doing more. Mine is an empirical approach -- that is what I do and what I enjoy. Trial and error. See it, code it, trade it. Plus, there is always a little magic sauce, thanks to my trading buddy... But again -- I acknowledge I will never be as profitable as a good, discretionary trader...
  • #712
  • Feb 9, 2022 9:39pm Feb 9, 2022 9:39pm
Quoting ohitsyou
Random is not the point. Random allows for infinite resources and time. My point is that statistics does not take into account the SEQUENCE in which events occur. In the case of trading, the SEQUENCE of wins and losses matters. In baseball the sequence of hits and misses doesn't matter -- all that matters is your 0.250 batting average at the end of the year earns you a million dollar contract. An experienced player may be allowed to stay in the lineup until the end of the year to improve upon his batting average. But in trading your broker...
OIY, you described sequence of result in 2 post. The point you make is about the streak of wins and losses, therefore expected PTV(peak to valley) drawdown, therefore we design the money management to survive this potential risk of ruin long tail variance. This maximum streak of wins or losses can be calculated. This is more important for converging(return to mean) strategies. Check this link.
https://www.soccerwidow.com/football...osing-streaks/
Know what you trade
  • #713
  • Feb 9, 2022 9:39pm Feb 9, 2022 9:39pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi OIY, I'll clear up a few points, hope it's not tooooo long this time, we'll see. All I will say is there ARE Targets that prices GO to. The rub is, as you suggest, short-term target, medium-term and long term ones, but which ones AND more importantly when. I’ll dump poor Andy in here as an example and say that he once showed me his Targets. Two days in advance, and which had already been running for a day, and that YES his price target was achieved in a the course of time. Substantial pips too as I remember. I can't discuss Andy's when...
Fab post Pete, and yes you do talk like that, I remember once asking you what you had for lunch....
When talking about confluence, rotation points etc some people walk away thinking your trying to pull the wool over their eyes, the reality is it's just the way you can explain the market to an individual and to fully understand the point you are trying to put across.
I have a monthly start point and finish, two weeks out of four I know within reason where price is going. Outside of those two weeks it can be awkward as price for one pair can enter a 'limbo' or (ranging)state and can hang around waiting for other pairs to complete a rotation or cycle while all the time making enough movement to give the illusion of a random walk.
  • #714
  • Feb 9, 2022 9:40pm Feb 9, 2022 9:40pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Immediately we have an issue, random or .... and I'm thinking of a new buzz word to describe how I feel about the market....and that word is it's 'Staged'! The market is staged, controlled to the 'nth degree... presented in a form that just shouts out which direction it's going to go. It's obvious right! It's subtle, very subtle, to draw in gamblers, the 99% who claim to trade but actually, just gamble. I mentioned before in the old days, barrow boys against the higher echelon of academia, barrow boys had to learn how to survive from day...
It just occurred to me -- an analogy for the FX market: body temperature. Our body temperature fluctuates within a range, just like price. Would you say that body temperature is staged or random or ???
  • #715
  • Feb 9, 2022 9:45pm Feb 9, 2022 9:45pm
It might depend on whether the temperature was taken under the tongue or rectally
  • #716
  • Edited 9:59pm Feb 9, 2022 9:48pm | Edited 9:59pm
Quoting ohitsyou
{quote} I like the word "staged" -- it implies some control. I wouldn't go so far as to say that it "shouts out" its direction, but it does imply there are some forces at work pulling it in one direction or another. And let's leave out what those forces might be for now. But "staged" is good. I trade algorithmically and do not explicitly pay attention to the staged market -- and never will. And here's why -- my algorithms just aren't smart enough. They will never hold a candle to your discretionary trading. As a discretionary trader you can take...
If you are making money with a non bias (gender neutral..) EA then you have achieved more than 99% of people who have also built a non biased EA.
I have to disagree with you..(hell, its about time) that a staged market cannot be programmed into an algo..., I think the staged market is just that, a program, that can be reverse engineered, have I achieved that, no, I doubt anyone could, but we can give it a good shot and get to a reliable, working model.
  • #717
  • Feb 9, 2022 9:49pm Feb 9, 2022 9:49pm
Quoting TimeTells
It might depend on whether the temperature was taken under the tongue or rectally
I have it under very good authority that ohitsyou would prefer a core sample!
  • #718
  • Edited 10:27pm Feb 9, 2022 9:51pm | Edited 10:27pm
Quoting ohitsyou
{quote} It just occurred to me -- an analogy for the FX market: body temperature. Our body temperature fluctuates within a range, just like price. Would you say that body temperature is staged or random or ???
Natural body temperature has a high low limit.

We don't know about the detail fluctuations therefore random(washing machine - moodybot) but we do know in advance the maximum, minimum limit(Pete's targets and inflexion points).
Know what you trade
  • #719
  • Feb 9, 2022 9:57pm Feb 9, 2022 9:57pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Natural body temperature has a high low limit. We don't know about the detail fluctuations therefore random(washing machine - moodybot) but we do know in advance the maximum, minimum limit(Peter's targets and inflexion points).
High/Low limit is what makes the market tradeable, without that I wouldn't know how/where to work out direction.
  • #720
  • Feb 9, 2022 10:34pm Feb 9, 2022 10:34pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} High/Low limit is what makes the market tradeable, without that I wouldn't know how/where to work out direction.
Exactly. That's target traders.

Now here's the rub, should we trust our calculated limits or trust the here and now futures volume delta?

This explains the divide between target traders and futures volume delta traders, what we trust.

Futures volume delta is limited to small tf, hence scalping. There's no limit for targets although its mostly used with higher tf.
Know what you trade
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