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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #650,041
  • Edited 9:11am Jan 29, 2022 8:57am | Edited 9:11am
Why GBP/USD will rally.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/the-boe-...hike-1.1709009

Quote
There’s more at stake than an interest-rate hike at next month’s Bank of England meeting, giving traders extra reason to correctly call the decision from the increasingly unpredictable central bank.

If it pulls the trigger and raises interest rates to 0.5%, that would be the first back-to-back hikes since 2004. It also opens the door for the BOE to start reducing its record balance sheet by stopping the reinvestment of expired bonds. That would affect 28 billion pounds ($38 billion) of gilts maturing in March.

Next week, I expect range trading around the 1.34 level on GBP/USD until the rate hike. Then I expect GBP/USD to rally towards 1.38 at least.

Trade setups:

1. Buy from 1.34 level, stop loss under 1.33 for weaklings and mere mortals.

2. Buy from 1.34 level, stop loss under 1.316 for pros to protect against fat fingers and crazy volatility.

Have fun and good luck.
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #650,042
  • Edited 11:43pm Jan 29, 2022 10:13am | Edited 11:43pm
checking usdx , ok storing broke out at one last leg up to down scenarios but may hold long time , likely count for the next crash big enough to rum years! . in smaller tf likely a pullback to 96.57/47 down at market open!! so range dollar up may 96.57/47 even 00 to 97.56 or 75 possible next week! a top possible next .take care
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #650,043
  • Jan 29, 2022 10:31am Jan 29, 2022 10:31am
Nice support at 1.3380....believe cable going alot higher now.
  • #650,044
  • Jan 29, 2022 11:10am Jan 29, 2022 11:10am
Quoting ninner
Nice support at 1.3380....believe cable going alot higher now.
Expecting another trip to the 1.3350 area and then bull all the way

Primarily a scalper but going to attempt a swing trade around that level
  • #650,045
  • Jan 29, 2022 11:14am Jan 29, 2022 11:14am
Quoting mysterio
{quote} Expecting another trip to the 1.3350 area and then bull all the way Primarily a scalper but going to attempt a swing trade around that level
could dip to the 1.3333 to 1.3283 area for more orders even.
  • #650,046
  • Jan 29, 2022 11:20am Jan 29, 2022 11:20am
Quoting ninner
{quote} could dip to the 1.3333 to 1.3283 area for more orders even.
I have two zones on h4 where I expect the bull rally to happen-- I think it will be the one we just contacted but could be the lower one too. Lets see what the PA says I don't like to make predictions
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  • #650,047
  • Jan 29, 2022 11:44am Jan 29, 2022 11:44am
Quoting mysterio
{quote} I have two zones on h4 where I expect the bull rally to happen-- I think it will be the one we just contacted but could be the lower one too. Lets see what the PA says I don't like to make predictions {image}
yup i agree ...everything happans algorithmically so we will see where they take it.
  • #650,048
  • Jan 29, 2022 12:02pm Jan 29, 2022 12:02pm
Per forexgoose's chart in his post above, If Boe hikes rate again to the consensus forecast of 0.5%, which is an effective doubling from the current 0.25%, then this will most likely see a general upside reaction which may well last until next fomc. Of course there is other mainly U.s data due this week most notably Nfp - but this is generally not what it was in terms of being a market mover. That said pip ranges are smaller than say 10 years ago on many instruments and certainly this one, so it's all relative I guess?

Conversely, no rate rise or a smaller than expected could see the opposite reaction. Speaking of market reactions we also have the slim chance of a BoJo expulsion from no.10, and the Russia/Ukraine thing. If the later flares up all bets are off as if history repeats we usually see a 'flight to safety/perceived safety,' with for example Dollar buying.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #650,049
  • Jan 29, 2022 12:26pm Jan 29, 2022 12:26pm
Quoting Headland
Per forexgoose's chart in his post above, If Boe hikes rate again to the consensus forecast of 0.5%, which is an effective doubling from the current 0.25%, then this will most likely see a general upside reaction which may well last until next fomc. Of course there is other mainly U.s data due this week most notably Nfp - but this is generally not what it was in terms of being a market mover. That said pip ranges are smaller than say 10 years ago on many instruments and certainly this one, so it's all relative I guess? Conversely, no rate rise or...
this is a great fundamental analysis.
which is finally not about the ego but about the market.
That's great.
  • #650,050
  • Jan 29, 2022 12:34pm Jan 29, 2022 12:34pm
Quoting ninner
{quote} yup i agree ...everything happans algorithmically so we will see where they take it.
They take it where the money is. So for Monday I only want to trade long below the low set on the 26th or short above the high set on the 28th. Monday's are terrible for intraday trading so I'm only getting involved at the extremes of this 70 pip accumulation range
  • #650,051
  • Edited 1:04pm Jan 29, 2022 12:44pm | Edited 1:04pm
A negligible distance left to the December value area. (A mess of lines and rectangles)
Then looking for buys...
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Air force
  • #650,052
  • Jan 29, 2022 1:32pm Jan 29, 2022 1:32pm
Quoting W0lfram
A negligible distance left to the December value area. (A mess of lines and rectangles) Then looking for buys...{image} {image}{image}{image}
Hi W0lfram

I have a dumb question. How do you determine the value area high and low ? Thanks !
  • #650,053
  • Jan 29, 2022 1:32pm Jan 29, 2022 1:32pm
I Am 100% ABOUT The Bull Move

HAHAhahahahaaaaaa

Dont Forget It Target 1.34830 And If You Enjoyed You Can Send Me Private Message

Ciao
Stalker...
  • #650,054
  • Edited Jan 30, 2022 3:06am Jan 29, 2022 2:02pm | Edited Jan 30, 2022 3:06am
Quoting mysterio
{quote} Hi W0lfram I have a dumb question. How do you determine the value area high and low ? Thanks !
G'evening
Not a dumb question at all)
I use the default setting - 70% volume concentration (by a tool for custom period, shaded areas on Daily candles also value area). Btw, interesting how the price consolidates last two days, filling the gap between nodes..Attachment g
Air force
  • #650,055
  • Jan 29, 2022 2:24pm Jan 29, 2022 2:24pm
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} G'evening Not a dumb question at all) I use the default setting - 70% volume concentration (by a tool for custom period, shaded areas on Daily candles also value area). Btw, interesting how the price consolidates last two days, filling the gap between nodes...{image}
Thank you! Honestly I'm still a doofus with market profile. I've not figured out how to turn it into a useful trade. I'll keep observing it then maybe one day I'll get it figured out. Is there a good YT video to watch on it ?
  • #650,056
  • Jan 29, 2022 3:21pm Jan 29, 2022 3:21pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} why are u bullish on GU? Im struggling, I find myself conflicted when price is this low..and I always somehow not able to stick to plan when we are low. euro is close to parity which I also find concerning. Id like to know your thought on it?
Hello baba Navin. here is why i am long. First of all, i am a swing trader so i might have to hold my longs 150/200 pips against where i will be adding.

The Gann calculator goes up and down by levels. Had cable reached 13983 aprox. then it would have gone below 13000. Now if we take 2 levels missing 13983 we reach 14220 aprox. 13384 was my reference to reach 13747 and 13983. It has broken 13384 without reaching 13983. This means that 13747 is equivalent to 13384 thus, 13747 and finally 14220.

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POSTMASTER
  • #650,057
  • Jan 29, 2022 5:33pm Jan 29, 2022 5:33pm
Quoting Bones
{image} {image} {image}
If inflation is not coming down anytime soon, what might that mean for the Fed monetary policy moving forward this year?
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #650,058
  • Jan 29, 2022 5:39pm Jan 29, 2022 5:39pm
Quoting trumps
Oil looks almost ready for a shake down {image} {image} {image}
Oil nearing key resistance and tech reversal zone.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #650,059
  • Jan 29, 2022 7:19pm Jan 29, 2022 7:19pm
Possible target up there around 102 at the Trendline retest.
But some zones to watch for bounces and retests in the meantime
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Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #650,060
  • Jan 29, 2022 7:49pm Jan 29, 2022 7:49pm
Quoting trumps
{quote} If inflation is not coming down anytime soon, what might that mean for the Fed monetary policy moving forward this year?
Well I don't think the fed is accepting QE is the main cause of inflation ,Powell said himself the next moves they make are data dependent.
To my mind the further/faster they go the deeper red data will be ,it can be further can kicking
or a nutty scheme in a crisis.They could even try price fixing ,nothing is set in stone.
They already drop the price gouging idea for the oil rise .

Oil won't come down as long as rates are that negative ,the miners don't price it themselves .
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