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  • #1,209,101
  • Jan 25, 2022 2:52pm Jan 25, 2022 2:52pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} The same can be said about supply and demand trading.
That's true. I better try both
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #1,209,102
  • Jan 25, 2022 3:07pm Jan 25, 2022 3:07pm
DOW had it's biggest weekly selloff since Oct 2020.
Closed weekly Channel break, but support below
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Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #1,209,103
  • Jan 25, 2022 3:18pm Jan 25, 2022 3:18pm
The DOW is an interesting study on divergences, TL's, Channels and S&R.

Current weekly bearish Divergence is stronger that the previous in 2018, with much more consolidation before the current move down
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Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #1,209,104
  • Jan 25, 2022 3:20pm Jan 25, 2022 3:20pm
Quoting trumps
The DOW is an interesting study on divergences, TL's, Channels and S&R. Current weekly bearish Divergence is stronger that the previous in 2018, with much more consolidation before the current move down {image}
Equity market is so weak, can't hold any gains lately

Lets see what Powell has to say
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #1,209,105
  • Jan 25, 2022 3:21pm Jan 25, 2022 3:21pm
I think that DXY will easily go to 97 in the coming weeks. Dollar is still in a bullish trend with strong support at 94.5.
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #1,209,106
  • Jan 25, 2022 3:32pm Jan 25, 2022 3:32pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Equity market is so weak, can't hold any gains lately Lets see what Powell has to say
I think Powell will continue talking tightening.
Too early right now to change language and back down.

He will need a significant market "Crash" to justify changing any talked up plans and policy.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #1,209,107
  • Jan 25, 2022 3:35pm Jan 25, 2022 3:35pm
Quoting trumps
{quote} I think Powell will continue talking tightening. Too early right now to change language and back down. He will need a significant market "Crash" to justify changing any talked up plans and policy.
And honestly 10% drop on ES is "nothing"
It happened plenty of time, he can't switch from hawkish stance to dovish

But the chief economist M.El Erian said the FED will have to stop QE right away tomorrow, it would be crazy if so
He is usually spot on, we'll see
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #1,209,108
  • Jan 25, 2022 3:58pm Jan 25, 2022 3:58pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} And honestly 10% drop on ES is "nothing" It happened plenty of time, he can't switch from hawkish stance to dovish But the chief economist M.El Erian said the FED will have to stop QE right away tomorrow, it would be crazy if so He is usually spot on, we'll see
Watching Cable right now, with the FED expected to be hawkish, you can wager that most of the meeting outcome is priced in.
I'm thinking the usual scenario will ensue.
On the talk, today's GU low will be taken out, going into the demand zone, before a significant correction north to 1.36 area.

Then continue down...
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #1,209,109
  • Jan 25, 2022 4:06pm Jan 25, 2022 4:06pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} And honestly 10% drop on ES is "nothing" It happened plenty of time, he can't switch from hawkish stance to dovish But the chief economist M.El Erian said the FED will have to stop QE right away tomorrow, it would be crazy if so He is usually spot on, we'll see
Personally, I'll be waiting to see if we get into the top zone before looking for reasons to short
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Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #1,209,110
  • Jan 25, 2022 4:32pm Jan 25, 2022 4:32pm
Quoting Nordling
{quote} Well i agree and i think that way too, but seeing some successful economists using those patterns + my timing problem really makes me question my stand on this matter. Maybe they can be used with fundamentals? Idk we will wait and see
The authors of this article tested the predictive power of 6 patterns against random guessing on the example of the stock market. Forex..乁( •_• )ㄏ Try to find them, then perform a simple statistical test
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8713248
Quote
In conclusion, among the six candlestick models, onlyt wo of them are somewhat effective and provides profitable revenue for investors using nine US stocks. Our results provide an up-to-date view of the “ancient” candlestick analyses. Given the limited applicability, general investors should not be using the candlestick model as the major guideline for their decision-making process
.
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And these are bullish patterns. And we know that "stonks only go up".. so no new information
Air force
  • #1,209,111
  • Jan 25, 2022 4:33pm Jan 25, 2022 4:33pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} The same can be said about supply and demand trading.
No. SnD zones represent accumulation/distribution areas. While they can be refined, the probability of them working for you decreases if all you're doing is trading them haphazardly by using limit orders at the open, middle or close of them. The proper way to trade SnD is to look at a higher timeframe zone and then zoom into a lower timeframe, and then refine your entry.

SnD zones fail when the trend has already changed (on the corresponding timeframe) and they become liquidity targets. It's very easy to spot that.
  • #1,209,112
  • Jan 25, 2022 4:38pm Jan 25, 2022 4:38pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} FYI, trendlines are not subjective when used in combination with fractals.
They are very subjective, and often change when the market does, rendering them unreliable. They serve mainly to get you liquidated.

Here's a video for your enjoyment. The title is tongue-in-cheek, as he stomps a mudhole in retail trendline traders.

Inserted Video
  • #1,209,113
  • Jan 25, 2022 4:55pm Jan 25, 2022 4:55pm
its simple 1 candle is less reliable
than 2 or 3 is most reliable
take the dxy it did break already which adds some weight
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #1,209,114
  • Jan 25, 2022 5:03pm Jan 25, 2022 5:03pm
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} The authors of this article tested the predictive power of 6 patterns against random guessing on the example of the stock market. Forex..乁( •_• )ㄏ Try to find them, then perform a simple statistical test https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8713248 {quote}.{image} And these are bullish patterns. And we know that "stonks only go up".. so no new information
Thank you buddy this is very helpful! I see that they are not that great, but not so bad either.
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #1,209,115
  • Jan 25, 2022 8:45pm Jan 25, 2022 8:45pm
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} The authors of this article tested the predictive power of 6 patterns against random guessing on the example of the stock market. Forex..乁( •_• )ㄏ Try to find them, then perform a simple statistical test https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8713248 {quote}.{image} And these are bullish patterns. And we know that "stonks only go up".. so no new information
from the p-value it seems hammer is the one to try should a trader would explore candlestick patterns

There is another study on FOREX market EURUSD.
It is interesting as the candlestick formation is definite into 27 types, and perform pattern recognition up to 24 bars.
From quick scan I don’t see the study actually have mapped performance of all 27^24 = 2e34 patterns, but certainly the hammer.
I think it used curve fitting model to quickly optimise by modifying the patterns being recognised. Faster but not deep enough.

it does have provided some interesting information of Fx market as an overview.

https://www.researchgate.net/publica...et_Eurusd_Case

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  • #1,209,116
  • Jan 25, 2022 10:23pm Jan 25, 2022 10:23pm
Quoting fxpipper
{quote} They are very subjective, and often change when the market does, rendering them unreliable. They serve mainly to get you liquidated. Here's a video for your enjoyment. The title is tongue-in-cheek, as he stomps a mudhole in retail trendline traders. https://youtu.be/vk-8YO7GsdQ
Great explanation, trend lines or just random drawing lines on the chart, are actually absolutely useless, and no one needs them there. They are 100% unreliable, useless, no meaning to be on the chart, literally just a line that was drawn on the chart, nothing else.
  • #1,209,117
  • Jan 25, 2022 10:57pm Jan 25, 2022 10:57pm
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} Great explanation, trend lines or just random drawing lines on the chart, are actually absolutely useless, and no one needs them there. They are 100% unreliable, useless, no meaning to be on the chart, literally just a line that was drawn on the chart, nothing else.
Ignorant comment. Just because you don't know how to use trendlines for trading, it doesn't mean they are useless.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,209,118
  • Edited 11:38pm Jan 25, 2022 11:25pm | Edited 11:38pm
Warning to noobs! Techanalyst can't be trusted to give an unbiased perspective on trading. Just because he says something is useless, it doesn't mean it won't work for you. This forum is filled with opinions. Do your due diligence to put what people in here say about trading to the test. That's the only way you will find out what works. Experience speaks louder than words. What doesn't work for one trader, might work for another trader. Trading is not 'one size fits all'.

As for experience, despite his username, Techanalyst is not a Technical Analyst. Based on some of the comments I have seen coming from him, it doesn't appear he has much experience with technical analysis. Therefore, anything he has to say about technical analysis should be taken with a grain of salt. He is a Fundamental Analyst.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,209,119
  • Jan 26, 2022 12:00am Jan 26, 2022 12:00am
so breakout , correct towards 1377/1430 if for next target 1.0870 next weeks possible . so sell at any high still in place for now !take care
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #1,209,120
  • Jan 26, 2022 2:27am Jan 26, 2022 2:27am
Candlesticks like pinbars on the chart (example) are good with supply and demand levels, except if the tails are huge, then I change timeframe. Today is not the day to use small timeframes only Daily and above, because of the volatility that expected later at the US FOMC meeting.

1 Hour graph.

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