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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #647,401
  • Jan 6, 2022 11:52am Jan 6, 2022 11:52am
Quoting mysterio
{quote} Thanks Moty you're bullish, eh? Going for those highs. interesting {quote} Yea, sure, I mean pros in the loosest sense. If you're trading and making money you're a pro. Newbie opinions are fine too. And of course nobody knows but at the time of taking a trade you're professing to have an idea of where price is headed. I guess you're bullish in the short term then ?
Bullish since 3200+ actually, i for sure prefer buying some dips for now
I'll wait COT report tomorrow and see what they did

NFP tomorrow could move the market, but its been a while we haven't seen huge move out of it
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #647,402
  • Jan 6, 2022 12:00pm Jan 6, 2022 12:00pm
Quoting mysterio
{quote} Thanks Moty you're bullish, eh? Going for those highs. interesting {quote} Yea, sure, I mean pros in the loosest sense. If you're trading and making money you're a pro. Newbie opinions are fine too. And of course nobody knows but at the time of taking a trade you're professing to have an idea of where price is headed. I guess you're bullish in the short term then ?
Not a pro by any means but will share an opinion. Down to 1.34400ish tomorrow followed by climb back to 1.36050ish by Wednesday, then down in the following weeks.
  • #647,403
  • Edited 12:30pm Jan 6, 2022 12:19pm | Edited 12:30pm
Quoting PiploEscobar
{quote} Not a pro by any means but will share an opinion. Down to 1.34400ish tomorrow followed by climb back to 1.36050ish by Wednesday, then down in the following weeks.
I like the 1.3440 idea

I'll be selling likely tomorrow, lets see what Asia brings first though

still have a partial sell running from 1.35567
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  • #647,404
  • Jan 6, 2022 12:40pm Jan 6, 2022 12:40pm
Quoting mysterio
Question for the pros Where next for cable ? Time to start selling off or are we heading to 1.36 ? Thanks everyone your thoughts are appreciated For me i'm in sell mode I think we're bearish
Hi Mysterio.
I am no pro but I am looking for a stronger dollar in the first quarter of this year, I am in a cyclic downtrend in accordance with my system with GbpUsd. I am bullish on the longer-term trend, but it will not come without a decent pullback. I could be wrong of course.
Cheers.
Trade to trade another day
  • #647,405
  • Jan 6, 2022 12:43pm Jan 6, 2022 12:43pm
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Hi Mysterio. I am no pro but I am looking for a stronger dollar in the first quarter of this year, I am in a cyclic downtrend in accordance with my system with GbpUsd. I am bullish on the longer-term trend, but it will not come without a decent pullback. I could be wrong of course. Cheers.
Thank you! Your opinion is valuable I love seeing your trade calls on GU. Very logical swing trading

I'm with you I think DXY will hit 97 in the near-ish term but not alot higher. 97-98 is strong weekly supply though I dont see us breaking it. But we've only just kissed those levels I think a deeper push is coming.
  • #647,406
  • Jan 6, 2022 1:43pm Jan 6, 2022 1:43pm
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Is there a new Fractals on MT4? I guess I have to check it out. Good luck with your FTMO. You are doing well.
Thanks Mitiblotch.
Not sure, maybe was available from the start. I was trading through different broker platforms. Ig dont have this indi available.
Have you tried FTMO for yourself?
  • #647,407
  • Jan 6, 2022 2:01pm Jan 6, 2022 2:01pm
Quoting mysterio
Question for the pros Where next for cable ? Time to start selling off or are we heading to 1.36 ? Thanks everyone your thoughts are appreciated For me i'm in sell mode I think we're bearish

i am a pro of my own view market is the pro of al trader...just my view

a break below 3250 open 1.28
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MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #647,408
  • Jan 6, 2022 2:13pm Jan 6, 2022 2:13pm
Quoting mysterio
Question for the pros Where next for cable ? Time to start selling off or are we heading to 1.36 ? Thanks everyone your thoughts are appreciated For me i'm in sell mode I think we're bearish
This is from prof chartists and their opinion on GU is-
56% Sell with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.
Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.
Overall Average Signal calculated from all 13 indicators. Signal Strength is a long-term measurement of the historical strength of the Signal, while Signal Direction is a short-term (3-Day) measurement of the movement of the Signal.

Hope this helps , J
  • #647,409
  • Edited 2:31pm Jan 6, 2022 2:19pm | Edited 2:31pm
Quoting mysterio
Question for the pros Where next for cable ? Time to start selling off or are we heading to 1.36 ? Thanks everyone your thoughts are appreciated For me i'm in sell mode I think we're bearish
It all depends on the t/f (s) we each individually operate on if we are technical traders. of course the fundie traders (who have a proven edge from such analysis) may already be holding longer-term positions, but for the majority here, myself included who are technical traders, we have no clue as to what the next tick in price will be let alone where price will go next over any given longer time scale. And nor should we care, we just trade the set-ups consistent with our edges as they present themselves, and after that the market will decide which of our individual entries will be successful or result in a losing trade. Feeling/thinking/expecting where price will go next is folly, wholly unnecessary, and very possibly counter-productive in that such a bias may prevent you from taking a perfectly good contra set-up. As tech traders we should try not to hold any opinions as to what might happen next and just trade what we see. In this respect this is what I see at the moment;

* 1hr ranging
* 4hr/dly in uptrends
* wkly in downtrend
* mthly a L @ 3572 below last HL (3669,) then a LL @ 3411 and what will be a 2nd LL when it forms fractally @ 3161 or lower, so possibly the beginnings of a downtrend on that t/f.

BTW: I get it that it was probably just an academic question/time filler and that a lot of the time participants ponder this question to fill the time between set-ups (lol,) and I think I know your trading style / t/f's of interest but even so I am sure you get my point.
-----------------------------------------

Speaking of the mthly, see chart below

Point a was the 1st HH @ 4242 then a 3rd HL @ 3669 @ pt c (up from the 1410 floor,) then a 2nd HH @ point b 4249, then as above. Some bullish hidden div on this t/f which may well stay valid as long as price above 2675 (point d.) Of course you have to ask whether there is a 4mth uptrend to enter after a pullback, (err, no!) on this lower mthly t/f in such t/f combo, and the fact that the hidden div so far on this lower mthly t/f is @ a 2nd potential LL on the t/f, so both these points not optimum for a hidden div set-up.
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #647,410
  • Jan 6, 2022 2:26pm Jan 6, 2022 2:26pm
Quoting Jolita
{quote} Thanks Mitiblotch. Not sure, maybe was available from the start. I was trading through different broker platforms. Ig dont have this indi available. Have you tried FTMO for yourself?
I tried ENFOID, which was good, and passed the trial many times. Made the profit within the required drawdown but they kept asking me to do it again each time I passed. They actually wanted me to pay for the fast track or whatever they called it. I then tried FTMO. First time I passed the demo trial in few days with ease. But then again there is an entrance fee, which I couldn't afford to pay at that time, as I had other things to cater for so I let it go. Since I am making some money from my trading account, no matter how little, I didn't bother to go further.
  • #647,411
  • Jan 6, 2022 2:44pm Jan 6, 2022 2:44pm
Quoting donfriday
{quote} i am a pro of my own view market is the pro of al trader...just my view a break below 3250 open 1.28 {image}
problem is we need a break below 135 first
Insane in the Brain..
  • #647,412
  • Edited 3:16pm Jan 6, 2022 2:47pm | Edited 3:16pm
...Nfp may give it a shake-up tomorrow, but as someone commented earlier - it generally isn't what it used to be in terms of being a big market mover - at least on the initial knee-jerk react. Used to be a shoe-in hi-prob trade to buy or sell the 1st pullback after an explosive initial knee-jerk reaction. You could even arb it between 2 brokers. Cmc -vs- a slower feed was a classic. Then when your account manager at the broker got wise (they are all aged 12 so it took them a while lol,) and accused you of 'trading within the price' which was a nice way of saying 'cheating' (as they saw it,) you had to scale it back, but it was free money and a good way of sticking it up'em. They don't like it up 'em you know (don't panic, don't panic,) and hate it when we the clients get one over all their dirty tricks. (Happy days.)

Re Nfp -Last time surprised with a low # against high forecasts so I wouldn't be surprised to see a high #, upside revision to last mth's #, and a fall in un-emp rate. This said today's ISM services pmi surprised to the downside so who knows? ADP was a big # but just anecdotally, (I have no empirical stats) it has seemed like a generally unreliable leading indicator for NFP, over the years. After my comments in last post made, I should say I expect nothing, lol!
----------------------------

1hr below.
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #647,413
  • Jan 6, 2022 2:49pm Jan 6, 2022 2:49pm
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} I tried ENFOID, which was good, and passed the trial many times. Made the profit within the required drawdown but they kept asking me to do it again each time I passed. They actually wanted me to pay for the fast track or whatever they called it. I then tried FTMO. First time I passed the demo trial in few days with ease. But then again there is an entrance fee, which I couldn't afford to pay at that time, as I had other things to cater for so I let it go. Since I am making some money from my trading account, no matter how little, I didn't...
Good experience and practice that counts, I'm with you, if you can make some profit for yourself stick with it, you are in charge fully.

Good Luck Mitibloch.
  • #647,414
  • Jan 6, 2022 3:03pm Jan 6, 2022 3:03pm
Guys, if any spare time, some good data can be found on all instruments on this website -

https://www.barchart.com/forex/quote...SD/performance
  • #647,415
  • Jan 6, 2022 3:55pm Jan 6, 2022 3:55pm
Quoting Headland
{quote} It all depends on the t/f (s) we each individually operate on if we are technical traders. of course the fundie traders (who have a proven edge from such analysis) may already be holding longer-term positions, but for the majority here, myself included who are technical traders, we have no clue as to what the next tick in price will be let alone where price will go next over any given longer time scale. And nor should we care, we just trade the set-ups consistent with our edges as they present themselves, and after that the market will decide...
I find your Monthly interpretation interesting, because I have MN2 down swing as a pullback to end in a higher low followed by an up continuation in keeping with the MN8 upswing, and MN16 attempting to swing up.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #647,416
  • Jan 6, 2022 4:02pm Jan 6, 2022 4:02pm
Close below 13550 works for me
Insane in the Brain..
  • #647,417
  • Jan 6, 2022 4:13pm Jan 6, 2022 4:13pm
Most probably the NFP is going to cause a dip. We have bearish divergence on the daily chart and the price was rejected by the 1.3600 resistance while coming really close to the upper bound of the channel (1D).
My gbpusd chart on tradingview.
Risk Management is of utmost importance!
  • #647,418
  • Jan 6, 2022 4:13pm Jan 6, 2022 4:13pm
Quoting Robinhood1
Reversal pattern {image}
looks like this is it, just broke the retracement enough leaving everybody outside. lets see

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POSTMASTER
  • #647,419
  • Edited 7:06pm Jan 6, 2022 6:54pm | Edited 7:06pm
I doubt we hit NFP target ,this isn't just one miss we saw last year and this chart is tailing off .
Also as the take their foot off the gas on QE the cost of borrowing will rise ,the general numbers will not look as rosy ,what happens by the time they stop spending any new money in to existence ?
There was a record job quits in November 2020 with the omicron on top .

While the minutes say theres a huge central bank job list to get off the heroine very soon ,in reality something will blow up before they can achieve all that chatter ,they will push it till then.
In actual fact it's the FED's job is talk the market down without lifting a finger if possible ,
It was only a year ago we had the FED inflation transitory chatter that FF people really believed as statements of fact ,nothing to see on inflation .

The ADP good number is probably largely regarding the infrastructure package with government expansion ,anyway it's not necessarily a leading number.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #647,420
  • Jan 6, 2022 7:44pm Jan 6, 2022 7:44pm
sell - 1.3547
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