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  • #61
  • Jun 2, 2019 4:40pm Jun 2, 2019 4:40pm
hi marecki,
U/J started the day with price being where it left off last week, so that is a good sign I think... the move last Friday might be a bit overdone and a good chance price will retrace a bit.. maybe good to have your last 2 buy orders and exit your buy orders at break-even?
  • #62
  • Jun 3, 2019 8:50am Jun 3, 2019 8:50am
Quoting yonnie
{quote} I think you should read the whole thread before commenting........now you sound so ignorant
OK I just did, ignorance comes from the word ignore right?
Just hope you guys don´t ignore the existance of black swans.

You can have many small accounts, let them run without a stop, and have a margin call here and there...provided your Broker doesn´t make you liable for negative balance. Europe´s ESMA protects traders from that.

I hate stops too, they are the income source of the Big Boys, stop running retailers...
Wish you guys the best of success.. easier said than done.
The 2 best traders I know: one makes often 50 % a day trading just one pair.
The other one is a millonaire.
Both use stops.HARD STOPS.
  • #63
  • Jun 3, 2019 4:15pm Jun 3, 2019 4:15pm
hi marecki,
in post 55 you mention 3 different ways of managing the drawdown....which one did you choose?....could you give a detailed explanation why you chose this one and why not one of the other two?....thank you
  • #64
  • Jun 3, 2019 5:33pm Jun 3, 2019 5:33pm
Hi yonnie,

Honestly, I am not sure what is gonna happen, but I still expect some move up. The question is where is the local bottom.
Last week has ended at 108.2. Looking on a chart level 105 looks quite achievable. Achievable doesn't mean that for sure price will go there. It's just possible.

Let's assume I know what will happen;
If I knew that:

  1. price will surely touch 105 - I wouldn't need a red triangle. I would put one big order just below last week Close price and put TP at let's say 105.15. If I knew that price will retrace from 105 I would put another long order around 105.1 (.1 to be sure that order opens)
  2. price will go only slightly down, let's say to 108.4 I wouldn't be opening any short order.

But I don't know any of above, but let's assume that happens one of 3 cases:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: case123.png Size: 21 KB


In case 1 - the less short orders open, the better. The lower is their amount the better. If they open, I would like them to have possibly shortest take profits. If we distribute short orders like in post 55 at 3rd image (red triangle) the shorter move down, the less orders open.
In case 3 - it's quite opposite. In that case I want most orders to be as high as possible - like red triangle in post 55 at 1st image.
2nd image in post 55 is like a kind of compromise between two others, and I decided to manage it more or less this way.
By a mistake I made green triangle reversed . Today morning I realized that and changed it as it should be.

For now I don't analyze what to do if price will go more down.
If necessary I will distribute another short orders, maybe reducing long position a little bit in order to increase it at better prices. We'll see.


I have very little time available, so the thread grows very slow. But my plan for next posts is to present another shapes/mechanisms based on triangles which will give us a wide palette of "tools".
With all those tools I feel more like playing strategy game than trading mechanical forex.
I want to share this idea as this might be as exciting to the thread followers as it is to me.

Regards!
  • #65
  • Edited 6:35pm Jun 3, 2019 6:20pm | Edited 6:35pm
This seems like a sensible way to size positions, taking advantage of standard deviation from the average price. Do you adjust the 'density' of the grid so that more orders are clustered further away from the COG and fewer are clustered near the centre, since the likelihood of a price reverse increases as price gets closer to the centre?

Are you agnostic about price (trend) direction or is that the function of the Bollinger bands?

How do you define when an 'unexpected situation in the market' has occurred and you need to use a different (reversed) triangle order set?
  • #66
  • Jun 3, 2019 6:31pm Jun 3, 2019 6:31pm
thank you for your explanation marecki.
don't think a lot of people will know what happens next; we can only guess.
if you place a sell triangle to counteract the buy orders in U/J, do you still take profits on individual long and short trades?
or are you hoping for a break-even of the long and short trades and exit?
you seem to think that U/J will break out to the upside, although the trend is down since September 2018. I realize you trade short-term like two weeks.

we are now in a big trade war and how long this will last is anybody`s guess. if it carries on for any great length of time. the supply chain in the US will be severely disrupted and business profits may fall, Fed might lower interest rates and the US dollar will take a dive.
do you think you should have a short bias on U/J from now on?
thank you for your time and awaiting your next reveal..........
  • #67
  • Edited Jun 4, 2019 11:43am Jun 3, 2019 7:10pm | Edited Jun 4, 2019 11:43am
Quoting clemmo17
This seems like a sensible way to size positions, taking advantage of standard deviation from the average price. Do you adjust the 'density' of the grid so that more orders are clustered further away from the COG and fewer are clustered near the centre, since the likelihood of a price reverse increases as price gets closer to the centre? Are you agnostic about price (trend) direction or is that the function of the Bollinger bands? How do you define when an 'unexpected situation in the market' has occurred and you need to use a different (reversed)...
I was thinking about adjusting the density of the grid, but this would require total rebuilding my spreadsheet which is designed based on equal distances between orders. So as for my use, this idea waits for better times.
If it's about a price or direction I'm trying to trade at areas where I see some technical pression on price. For this I like to use bollinger bands when it's quite wide and the price looks like moved to the right from the bands, e.g:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bb_pression.png Size: 26 KB


I don't know if You read the posts #34 and #35, where I was trying to show actually what I understand as reversed triangles.
If You read and it is still not clear, please let me know - I'll try to give further explanation.
  • #68
  • Edited Jun 4, 2019 11:34am Jun 3, 2019 7:27pm | Edited Jun 4, 2019 11:34am
Quoting yonnie
if you place a sell triangle to counteract the buy orders in U/J, do you still take profits on individual long and short trades? or are you hoping for a break-even of the long and short trades and exit? you seem to think that U/J will break out to the upside, although the trend is down since September 2018. I realize you trade short-term like two weeks
Generally yes, when I place a sell triangle as You ask I put also TPs. I am trying to have in mind when regulating the TPs lengths, that:

 

  1. too long TPs might stay uncatched and after possible retracement I will stay with unwanted short orders
  2. too short TPs will be catched too high and further move down will be not hedged enough


I don't want to fight against market. The aim is to make equity a bit higher than the preliminary balance, which was around 557. To achieve that, it should be enough that the price will go up to area of 110.5.
Result is of course dependant on other traded pairs as well.

One or two weeks is a plan. However, as I wrote in previous posts, such way of trading requires some time for open + closed trades in total give positive result. If two weeks will seem not enough I'll try to give it some more time. Let's see what happens.

  • #69
  • Jun 4, 2019 11:45am Jun 4, 2019 11:45am
Quoting marecki
{quote} For this I like to use bollinger bands when it's quite wide and the price looks like moved to the right from the bands, e.g: {image}
For example USDCHF h1 looks much like has now pression UP.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchfh1_4jun.png Size: 25 KB


I'll put some orders up.
  • #70
  • Jun 4, 2019 7:05pm Jun 4, 2019 7:05pm
Quoting marecki
{quote} For example USDCHF h1 looks much like has now pression UP. {image} I'll put some orders up.
I think your long entries are too early. you might just be catching a falling knife. the daily is not even up yet for 1 day. but who knows and good luck.
  • #71
  • Jun 5, 2019 4:33pm Jun 5, 2019 4:33pm
Quoting yonnie
{quote} I think your long entries are too early. you might just be catching a falling knife. the daily is not even up yet for 1 day. but who knows and good luck.
Hi yonni,
being honest I was ALMOST certain that there is a strong pression over there, especially that on W1 chart it looked like unnaturally big move down after some falling candles. I might be wrong but I think that 1.024 is quite possible in few next weeks.
  • #72
  • Jun 10, 2019 6:44pm Jun 10, 2019 6:44pm
Hi, Marecki
Nice thread, I am trying to test it in order to filter out "wrong" trades. Proper filtering is the key to this method, as well as proper exit or hedge system.
One question - can u send a link or explanation on how to enter trades through excel. I searched youtube, however, didn't find good explanation.
Additionally, what is your space (distance) between orders as well as TP distances?
Thank you
  • #73
  • Jun 11, 2019 8:47am Jun 11, 2019 8:47am
Quoting cubicpip
Hi, Marecki Nice thread, I am trying to test it in order to filter out "wrong" trades. Proper filtering is the key to this method, as well as proper exit or hedge system. One question - can u send a link or explanation on how to enter trades through excel. I searched youtube, however, didn't find good explanation. Additionally, what is your space (distance) between orders as well as TP distances? Thank you
Hi cubicpip,

You didn’t find any youtube movie about trading this way, because I think there are very few people doing this.
( The methods and strategies I am presenting in this thread are made up by myself. At oanda V20 REST API (https://developer.oanda.com/rest-live-v20/introduction/) site there is raw reference of methods and parameters, however I am now working on making a good essence of that inside this thread. )

In this particular method I have fixed amount of orders inside a triangle: 19.
19 is not a special number – I once prepared a spreadsheet with this amount and it stayed until now.
Fixed number of orders and fixed distances make, that distances are result of:

DISTANCE = (HIGHEST PRICE – LOWEST PRICE) / 19 = (TOTAL DISTANCE) / 19

Knowing each distance, I am setting TP prices for HIGHEST PRICE ORDER and for LOWEST PRICE ORDER watching charts on the right side of FORM spreadsheet.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TP and distances.png Size: 20 KB


Usually I set shortest TP to be slightly longer than DISTANCEs, and longest TP about 40% - 50% of TOTAL DISTANCE.


If it is about filtering, fxtrade application has a nice option to export "TRADES", "POSITIONS" and "EXPOSURE" data from a pogram to csv file.
Especially exporting the TRADES is very usefull if You want to filter bad trades.

Cheers!
  • #74
  • Jun 18, 2019 4:36pm Jun 18, 2019 4:36pm
Quoting marecki
But my plan for next posts is to present another shapes/mechanisms based on triangles which will give us a wide palette of "tools". With all those tools I feel more like playing strategy game than trading mechanical forex. I want to share this idea as this might be as exciting to the thread followers as it is to me. Regards!
hi marecki,keeping track of your DD and profit numbers. you`re slowly digging yourself out of that small hole. good on you!I cannot see the actual trades you make in TE. I contacted admin and they told me that happenes because I don't run the chrome operating system. strange though; I`m sure heaps of people have a windows program.are you going to share your latest hedging system anytime soon when you have time?thank you.
  • #75
  • Jun 20, 2019 12:53pm Jun 20, 2019 12:53pm
Quoting yonnie
{quote} hi marecki,keeping track of your DD and profit numbers. you`re slowly digging yourself out of that small hole. good on you!I cannot see the actual trades you make in TE. I contacted admin and they told me that happenes because I don't run the chrome operating system. strange though; I`m sure heaps of people have a windows program.are you going to share your latest hedging system anytime soon when you have time?thank you.
Hi yonni and thread followers!

As I wrote in previous posts I would like to describe few types of grids that I use as tools for constructing complex strategies and react on changing market conditions. I think that some of You might want to test it by Yourself. Therefore that is the best moment to start preparing the excel file for Your use - without this we will not be able to use some of the features, for example sending orders that will REDUCE_ONLY or REDUCE_FIRST our positions.

The excel file I presented already in #Post 49 makes two important things:

  1. It is calculating sets of orders
  2. It is preparing a ready http REQUEST in a rest api format so it is ready to be sent to the server through api.

When using this spreadsheet EXCEL must be configured in such a way that "." (dot) is a decimal separator. Otherwise if it is gonna be colon, request will generate an error.

As I wrote before, so far it is configured only for OANDA API, so only OANDA users are able to use this file with success.
HTTP request using authorization code that needs to be obtained at oanda account manager.

https://www.oanda.com/account/tpa/personal_token

Be sure that nobody sees Your personal token to avoid unwanted trades taken from Your account.
Having this token You are now authorized to trade through OANDA API.

Around internet there are various ready REST API http clients. Before preparing macros in EXCEL, I sometimes used RESTLET client for chrome browser. This however was uneffective because I couldn't send more than one request at a time. If You want to test some of the clients You can already send prepared request from the EXCEL file from #Post 49. Prepared request are in BOLD cells above buttons in "BUY" and "SELL" sheets.

In next posts I'll publish excel macros for our excel so we can activate buttons inside.

Regards!

  • #76
  • Jun 21, 2019 4:04am Jun 21, 2019 4:04am
Below is macro to be paste to vba.
This macro should be assigned to each button that is below the cells in BUY and SELL spreadsheet
"C26" - be sure that this address is indicating the cell in which You will enter number of account You will be trading at.
XXXXXX - In this place You should paste Your token taken from Oanda API management site.
This macro is working in such a way, that before pushing a button You need to select a cell with ready (rest api) request. Clicking the button will send the request directly to the server.
Be sure that Your Oanda account is v20 and is allowed for hedging.
_____

Sub HTTPReq()
Dim xmlhttp As New MSXML2.xmlhttp, myurl As String
myurl = "https://api-fxtrade.oanda.com/v3/accounts/" + Arkusz1.Range("C26").Text + "/orders"
xmlhttp.Open "POST", myurl, False
xmlhttp.setRequestHeader "Content-Type", "application/json"
xmlhttp.setRequestHeader "Authorization", "Bearer XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX"
xmlhttp.send ActiveCell.Text

MsgBox xmlhttp.responseText

End Sub

_____

If anybody tries and something will not work I'll try to help.

Regards!
  • #77
  • Jun 29, 2019 4:17am Jun 29, 2019 4:17am
Hi,

I promised that I will show some tools that make trading like a strategy game.
VEEFX in his post (that has vanished very shortly) told something I liked very much. He called this way of trading: "a price trapping".
He was so much right!
This is what I actually do with triangles in general. Thanks for very wise comment VEEFX!

The strategy game is about to prepare and manage kind of "traps". Let's see some examples:

Strategy GBPCAD 4h
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: strategy1.png Size: 85 KB


Strategy EURUSD 1h
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: strategy2.png Size: 72 KB


Those examples are made of "tools" I want to describe here.
Someone might wonder what are REDUCE_ONLY or REDUCE_FIRST descriptions. Those are orders with such options of opening:
REDUCE_ONLY - it will only reduce existing positions (e.g. long order REDUCE_ONLY will only reduce existing short position)
REDUCE_FIRST - it will first reduce existing position (e.g. short order will first reduce long position when existing, then it will put short orders)

hint: take profits are not placed for reducing part of orders. For REDUCE_ONLY orders take profits are not placed at all.
  • #78
  • Dec 22, 2021 10:10am Dec 22, 2021 10:10am
Quoting LDFX
{quote} « I just don’t believe a system has to take losses if traded correctly « , so why not using stop loss instead of letting them run ? If he had any confidence other than in delusion, he would use stop loss.
Keep fighting for your b book friends, but we all know no one with a lick of sense uses a stop loss, unless they have 3 jobs to support their foolish loss stop delusions....
  • #79
  • Last Post: Mar 23, 2024 9:40am Mar 23, 2024 9:40am
Quoting marecki
Gentlemen, many of traders in this thread are hungry of examples to see how this works, so before elaborating more theory let's put some orders to the market. First what I do is prepare my quick prediction of what will happen the few next days. Time horizon for our session is one or two weeks, so I'll look on h4. In order to do so I use bollinger band (75,3), which gives me also some information about expected scope of the move. {image} Now let's take for example USDJPY pair which. like in a scheme, I'll be trading mostly LONG. Here is a chart with...
Why distance of 2 ranges are different? Buy range is longer than sell range. I am confusing about your calculation
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