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  • #1,205,681
  • Dec 5, 2021 9:00pm Dec 5, 2021 9:00pm
TA and FA
  • #1,205,682
  • Dec 5, 2021 9:15pm Dec 5, 2021 9:15pm
Adding another sell.
  • #1,205,683
  • Dec 5, 2021 9:18pm Dec 5, 2021 9:18pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} You will not get what you are looking for because every strategy is self developed and specific to the trader. As far as verifiable evidence goes do you understand that you are an avatar who wants someone to pay for an audit and post trades just for you? Why? No one can teach you how to trade. It is only seat time that works for that. {quote} While you may see heads buy, tails sell, I see an established downward trend with a double top at the pivot. The trend is late, so my position size will account for that. See the difference? Probably...

Well, today I tried a different approach and zoomed out to the daily with long-run MAs - and indeed it is late, but prior to just now I had been looking at shorter time frames. Just more evidence (AFAIC) that looking at tiny time frames is a fool's errand and blinds you to the underlying trend ('fundamentals').

I'm not asking anyone for any such thing: a simple backtest strategy using TradingView will suffice. I will try and do one for my 20 > 200 MA strategy. I can already see from 'eyeballing' that it works much better for S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 than it does for DJI or DAX.

For FX, I can see that some pairs are totally untradable but EUR/USD looks like there is potential.
  • #1,205,684
  • Dec 5, 2021 9:49pm Dec 5, 2021 9:49pm
Early morning scalp.

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We cut the winners short and let the losers run.
  • #1,205,685
  • Dec 5, 2021 9:57pm Dec 5, 2021 9:57pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} Then you trade the trend until the trend is no more. It doesn't take much thought. But even if you trade the trend, there is no guarantee it won't surprise you with a sudden move against you. Just because you see a trend, or some other pattern, it doesn't mean you are going to get it right. But let's suppose you put all of that thought into doing TA, and pull the trigger, and then go long, and someone just flips a coin and ends up taking the same trade. You could both win. The difference is you had to put more effort into making the decision....
Trading with the trend has been statistically proven to offer a so called "edge" in trading. So over the long term if a trader consistently trades with the trend he is more likely to come out ahead. If one's TA applied to a down-trend determines he should sell then probability logically is in favor of TA over coin-flipping. Coin flipping will give buy signals during the down trend.

Then why do traders lose with trend trading. Easy. They don't trend trade. They take counter trend trades and poorly timed trades leading to losses and so they conclude trend trading "doesn't work". They just don't know how to trend trade.

The so-called surprise you mention happens in all trading. It's why there are protective stops. It is expected that some trades will fail even in trend trading. Being right is not the point. Maximizing when you are right and minimizing when you are wrong is the key to successful trading.
  • #1,205,686
  • Dec 5, 2021 10:11pm Dec 5, 2021 10:11pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} Trading with the trend has been statistically proven to offer a so called "edge" in trading. So over the long term if a trader consistently trades with the trend he is more likely to come out ahead. If one's TA applied to a down-trend determines he should sell then probability logically is in favor of TA over coin-flipping. Coin flipping will give buy signals during the down trend. Then why do traders lose with trend trading. Easy. They don't trend trade. They take counter trend trades and poorly timed trades leading to losses and so they...
It would be interesting if we could both agree on using an arbitrary stop loss and take profit, and place a trade each day, one hour after the NY close. You could base your trade on TA, and I could base mine on a coin toss. We would both follow the same risk-management rules. And we could do this for 100 trades.

It would be interesting to see if a coin toss would perform better than your strategy. If so, then that would mean your strategy is no better than a coin toss. It would mean your TA really isn't giving you an advantage. It would be even more interesting if a coin toss outperformed your strategy.

Of course, it might turn out that your strategy performs better, in which case I would be proven wrong. But we would have to enter at the same price, using the same risk-management rules. Otherwise, it won't be a fair test.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,205,687
  • Dec 5, 2021 10:22pm Dec 5, 2021 10:22pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} Then you trade the trend until the trend is no more. It doesn't take much thought. But even if you trade the trend, there is no guarantee it won't surprise you with a sudden move against you. Just because you see a trend, or some other pattern, it doesn't mean you are going to get it right. But let's suppose you put all of that thought into doing TA, and pull the trigger, and then go long, and someone just flips a coin and ends up taking the same trade. You could both win. The difference is you had to put more effort into making the decision....
I cannot argue that point. We all approach the market in our own ways. I approach using the same method over and over again, and reward my position when I am right. I do not believe in a non quantitative edge. I simply show up, buy support, sell resistance, add to winners and cut losers quickly. Not much to think about. Humans are the same essentially.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,205,688
  • Dec 5, 2021 10:27pm Dec 5, 2021 10:27pm
Quoting JauntyLoon
{quote} Well, today I tried a different approach and zoomed out to the daily with long-run MAs - and indeed it is late, but prior to just now I had been looking at shorter time frames. Just more evidence (AFAIC) that looking at tiny time frames is a fool's errand and blinds you to the underlying trend ('fundamentals'). I'm not asking anyone for any such thing: a simple backtest strategy using TradingView will suffice. I will try and do one for my 20 > 200 MA strategy. I can already see from 'eyeballing' that it works much better for S&P 500 and...
Looking a small timeframes does not suit me well, but I watch a trader and he makes money most days at M5. I really think it is about personality and what suits the individual. There are no magic bullets. For me, I keep my thinking to a minimum and trade what I see. I expect to wrong most of the time, but when I am right, I try to be very right.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,205,689
  • Dec 5, 2021 10:38pm Dec 5, 2021 10:38pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I cannot argue that point. We all approach the market in our own ways. I approach using the same method over and over again, and reward my position when I am right. I do not believe in a non quantitative edge. I simply show up, buy support, sell resistance, add to winners and cut losers quickly. Not much to think about. Humans are the same essentially.
I appreciate your way of dealing with the market. If you are satisfied with your results, then keep on keeping on.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,205,690
  • Dec 5, 2021 10:47pm Dec 5, 2021 10:47pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} It would be interesting if we could both agree on using an arbitrary stop loss and take profit, and place a trade each day, one hour after the NY close. You could base your trade on TA, and I could base mine on a coin toss. We would both follow the same risk-management rules. And we could do this for 100 trades. It would be interesting to see if a coin toss would perform better than your strategy. If so, then that would mean your strategy is no better than a coin toss. It would mean your TA really isn't giving you an advantage. It would...
It would be interesting but there is a problem.

You assume that I would want to take a trade each day, one hour after the NY close. My strategy will not give trade signals according to the proposed rules of your experiment.

My strategy naturally gives with-trend trading signals but even with those "signals" I also employ other criteria before pulling the trigger. So not every signal results in a trade. I'm lucky if I get one or two trades per week but lately it's been working out.
  • #1,205,691
  • Dec 5, 2021 11:04pm Dec 5, 2021 11:04pm
Quoting Winston Reed
...I'm lucky if I get one or two trades per week but lately it's been working out.
If it's working for you and you are happy, then keep doing it.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,205,692
  • Dec 5, 2021 11:05pm Dec 5, 2021 11:05pm
I won't bore anyone with details but here's a quicky on my trend trading strategy on the 60 minute.

It uses 2 slow MAs, a 200 and a 200 shifted 20. The crossing of these two MAs tells me when longs or sells are in play.

It also employs 2 fast emas, a 3 and a 6. These give trading signals.

Although not required I'll look at the 5 minute for an entry when the fast emas line up on the 60.

There are other criteria I use for a final entry but like I said this is just a quicky.

The chart below is obviously a downtrend. If a coin flip told me to go long I'd be a fool to go long. It's not too difficult to see how TA clearly works in a trending market and it in and of itself gives an "edge". The so called "edge" doesn't exist.

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  • #1,205,693
  • Dec 5, 2021 11:12pm Dec 5, 2021 11:12pm
Quoting JauntyLoon
The Nazi World Order is going to start mandating 'vaxx' in Europe next year. People who don't submit to the twice-yearly clot shots will be fined, starved and put into concentration camps. How will this affect the European economy? Well, this could affect up to 25 - 33% of the population. What will be the effects of starving, abusing and killing off 25% of the population? I wouldn't want to be a long-term Euro bull. But then again, if America starts doing the same thing - and it probably will - then I wouldn't be a dollar bull either. At this point,...
Not much we can do about it. stupidity reigns. Some covidsmarts at the top are working on it. The german society did not do anything to stop WW2 genocide, it had to come from the top. Why do you think we are at the bottomOnly inform trying to wake up the sleepy and its been censored by people at the bottom

When revolution comes it will be unnecesary just like entering at the very tops or bottoms
POSTMASTER
  • #1,205,694
  • Dec 5, 2021 11:31pm Dec 5, 2021 11:31pm
Breakout downside a-comin'? (Demo account!)
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  • #1,205,695
  • Dec 5, 2021 11:34pm Dec 5, 2021 11:34pm
Quoting Winston Reed
It's not too difficult to see how TA clearly works in a trending market and it in and of itself gives an "edge". The so called "edge" doesn't exist. {image}

You're absolutely right, but the 'trick' is knowing when the trend is going sideways (which is where most people lose all their gains made during the strong uptrend/downtrend) and therefore when not to trade.

In 2021 there was a strong uptrend in everything (except certain FX pairs), so anyone who didn't make money in 2021 was a fool ... but if you backtest a system on 2021 results you're going to be in for a nasty surprise because very few years show such a strong continuous uptrend!
  • #1,205,696
  • Dec 5, 2021 11:55pm Dec 5, 2021 11:55pm
Quoting JauntyLoon
{quote} You're absolutely right, but the 'trick' is knowing when the trend is going sideways (which is where most people lose all their gains made during the strong uptrend/downtrend) and therefore when not to trade...
Well, you can still trade with the trend under such conditions, on the pullbacks. But you would need a wide stop loss. A 14 period ATR with a multiplier of 2.0 is good.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,205,697
  • Dec 6, 2021 12:00am Dec 6, 2021 12:00am
entering long

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POSTMASTER
  • #1,205,698
  • Dec 6, 2021 12:00am Dec 6, 2021 12:00am
Quoting MrBullBear
{quote} Added another one.. {image}
Moving my stops at BE of 2nd order to secure 13pips. Won't add yet.
Only an idiot knows with certainty to where the market is going.
  • #1,205,699
  • Dec 6, 2021 12:09am Dec 6, 2021 12:09am
Quoting Robinhood1
entering long {image}
As it stands now, first target around 11850
POSTMASTER
  • #1,205,700
  • Dec 6, 2021 12:19am Dec 6, 2021 12:19am
Quoting Robinhood1
{quote} As it stands now, first target around 11850
Wow... that's exactly 566 pips from now.
Only an idiot knows with certainty to where the market is going.
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