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MT4: how to change "EURUSD" to "#EURUSD"? 3 replies

Re: EurUsd short term 15 replies

did oanda just drop its spread for eurusd to 1 pip? 11 replies

EA for multiple lot limit order for EURUSD 0 replies

NFP nice bump up on EURUSD 2 replies

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Quoting JauntyLoon
Nah, 20 > 200 strategy doesn't work for any FX or DAX 40. I don't see any strategies with a win rate of 40% over a long period of time. Can someone post a link to verifiable evidence?
You will not get what you are looking for because every strategy is self developed and specific to the trader. As far as verifiable evidence goes do you understand that you are an avatar who wants someone to pay for an audit and post trades just for you? Why?

No one can teach you how to trade. It is only seat time that works for that.

Quoting JauntyLoon
Heads buy, tails sell! {image}
While you may see heads buy, tails sell, I see an established downward trend with a double top at the pivot. The trend is late, so my position size will account for that.

See the difference? Probably not.

Quoting JauntyLoon
{quote} This is a cliche, a bit like 'buy low and sell high'. You can have a money management system but if you don't make money from trading then even the best money management system in the world won't stop you losing money. There is a lot of vested interest in selling technical analysis to retail traders; anyone who was consistently profitable trading would never come on to a forum and become defensive about TA. (Which I have never heard a professional trader say a good word about.) People who do that clearly have some kind of ulterior motive....
You are about halfway there. You should buy low and sell high in a trading range only. If you can't tell whether or not you are in a trend, then you are in a trading range. I agree with you about TA, it should come as a decision point and used dead last in your trading routine.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} I have a similar win rate. Actually it is sometimes lower. I also "press" the trends. I like that word, "press". Win rate cannot be considered in a vacuum. Does it not matter how many pips one wins on any given trade? Can one not win 9 trades in a row winning 2 pips per trade for a total of 18 pips then lose 30 pips on the 10th trade? Win rate is meaningless by itself including the oft sited 50% win rate being thrown about by some as some sort of benchmark that decides whether one has a so-called "edge" or not. This is purely arbitrary rhetoric....
You are missing the point.
You don't know because you don't ask.
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} ...While you may see heads buy, tails sell, I see an established downward trend with a double top at the pivot...
Then you trade the trend until the trend is no more. It doesn't take much thought.

But even if you trade the trend, there is no guarantee it won't surprise you with a sudden move against you. Just because you see a trend, or some other pattern, it doesn't mean you are going to get it right.

But let's suppose you put all of that thought into doing TA, and pull the trigger, and then go long, and someone just flips a coin and ends up taking the same trade. You could both win. The difference is you had to put more effort into making the decision. Yet your decision amounted to nothing better than a coin toss. Thus, you don't have a real edge.

And if your win rate is less than 50%, it's possible that someone could actually do better by flipping a coin. So what good is all of that TA doing for you if you can't achieve a win rate above 50%? Is it really helping you, or do you just believe it is helping you?

Unless you have a real edge, you don't know that what you are doing is actually better than flipping a coin.

That's not to say TA is useless. It has its purpose.
You don't know because you don't ask.
TA and FA
Adding another sell.
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} You will not get what you are looking for because every strategy is self developed and specific to the trader. As far as verifiable evidence goes do you understand that you are an avatar who wants someone to pay for an audit and post trades just for you? Why? No one can teach you how to trade. It is only seat time that works for that. {quote} While you may see heads buy, tails sell, I see an established downward trend with a double top at the pivot. The trend is late, so my position size will account for that. See the difference? Probably...

Well, today I tried a different approach and zoomed out to the daily with long-run MAs - and indeed it is late, but prior to just now I had been looking at shorter time frames. Just more evidence (AFAIC) that looking at tiny time frames is a fool's errand and blinds you to the underlying trend ('fundamentals').

I'm not asking anyone for any such thing: a simple backtest strategy using TradingView will suffice. I will try and do one for my 20 > 200 MA strategy. I can already see from 'eyeballing' that it works much better for S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 than it does for DJI or DAX.

For FX, I can see that some pairs are totally untradable but EUR/USD looks like there is potential.
Early morning scalp.

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We cut the winners short and let the losers run.
Quoting here2there
{quote} Then you trade the trend until the trend is no more. It doesn't take much thought. But even if you trade the trend, there is no guarantee it won't surprise you with a sudden move against you. Just because you see a trend, or some other pattern, it doesn't mean you are going to get it right. But let's suppose you put all of that thought into doing TA, and pull the trigger, and then go long, and someone just flips a coin and ends up taking the same trade. You could both win. The difference is you had to put more effort into making the decision....
Trading with the trend has been statistically proven to offer a so called "edge" in trading. So over the long term if a trader consistently trades with the trend he is more likely to come out ahead. If one's TA applied to a down-trend determines he should sell then probability logically is in favor of TA over coin-flipping. Coin flipping will give buy signals during the down trend.

Then why do traders lose with trend trading. Easy. They don't trend trade. They take counter trend trades and poorly timed trades leading to losses and so they conclude trend trading "doesn't work". They just don't know how to trend trade.

The so-called surprise you mention happens in all trading. It's why there are protective stops. It is expected that some trades will fail even in trend trading. Being right is not the point. Maximizing when you are right and minimizing when you are wrong is the key to successful trading.
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} Trading with the trend has been statistically proven to offer a so called "edge" in trading. So over the long term if a trader consistently trades with the trend he is more likely to come out ahead. If one's TA applied to a down-trend determines he should sell then probability logically is in favor of TA over coin-flipping. Coin flipping will give buy signals during the down trend. Then why do traders lose with trend trading. Easy. They don't trend trade. They take counter trend trades and poorly timed trades leading to losses and so they...
It would be interesting if we could both agree on using an arbitrary stop loss and take profit, and place a trade each day, one hour after the NY close. You could base your trade on TA, and I could base mine on a coin toss. We would both follow the same risk-management rules. And we could do this for 100 trades.

It would be interesting to see if a coin toss would perform better than your strategy. If so, then that would mean your strategy is no better than a coin toss. It would mean your TA really isn't giving you an advantage. It would be even more interesting if a coin toss outperformed your strategy.

Of course, it might turn out that your strategy performs better, in which case I would be proven wrong. But we would have to enter at the same price, using the same risk-management rules. Otherwise, it won't be a fair test.
You don't know because you don't ask.
Quoting here2there
{quote} Then you trade the trend until the trend is no more. It doesn't take much thought. But even if you trade the trend, there is no guarantee it won't surprise you with a sudden move against you. Just because you see a trend, or some other pattern, it doesn't mean you are going to get it right. But let's suppose you put all of that thought into doing TA, and pull the trigger, and then go long, and someone just flips a coin and ends up taking the same trade. You could both win. The difference is you had to put more effort into making the decision....
I cannot argue that point. We all approach the market in our own ways. I approach using the same method over and over again, and reward my position when I am right. I do not believe in a non quantitative edge. I simply show up, buy support, sell resistance, add to winners and cut losers quickly. Not much to think about. Humans are the same essentially.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
Quoting JauntyLoon
{quote} Well, today I tried a different approach and zoomed out to the daily with long-run MAs - and indeed it is late, but prior to just now I had been looking at shorter time frames. Just more evidence (AFAIC) that looking at tiny time frames is a fool's errand and blinds you to the underlying trend ('fundamentals'). I'm not asking anyone for any such thing: a simple backtest strategy using TradingView will suffice. I will try and do one for my 20 > 200 MA strategy. I can already see from 'eyeballing' that it works much better for S&P 500 and...
Looking a small timeframes does not suit me well, but I watch a trader and he makes money most days at M5. I really think it is about personality and what suits the individual. There are no magic bullets. For me, I keep my thinking to a minimum and trade what I see. I expect to wrong most of the time, but when I am right, I try to be very right.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I cannot argue that point. We all approach the market in our own ways. I approach using the same method over and over again, and reward my position when I am right. I do not believe in a non quantitative edge. I simply show up, buy support, sell resistance, add to winners and cut losers quickly. Not much to think about. Humans are the same essentially.
I appreciate your way of dealing with the market. If you are satisfied with your results, then keep on keeping on.
You don't know because you don't ask.
Quoting here2there
{quote} It would be interesting if we could both agree on using an arbitrary stop loss and take profit, and place a trade each day, one hour after the NY close. You could base your trade on TA, and I could base mine on a coin toss. We would both follow the same risk-management rules. And we could do this for 100 trades. It would be interesting to see if a coin toss would perform better than your strategy. If so, then that would mean your strategy is no better than a coin toss. It would mean your TA really isn't giving you an advantage. It would...
It would be interesting but there is a problem.

You assume that I would want to take a trade each day, one hour after the NY close. My strategy will not give trade signals according to the proposed rules of your experiment.

My strategy naturally gives with-trend trading signals but even with those "signals" I also employ other criteria before pulling the trigger. So not every signal results in a trade. I'm lucky if I get one or two trades per week but lately it's been working out.
Quoting Winston Reed
...I'm lucky if I get one or two trades per week but lately it's been working out.
If it's working for you and you are happy, then keep doing it.
You don't know because you don't ask.
I won't bore anyone with details but here's a quicky on my trend trading strategy on the 60 minute.

It uses 2 slow MAs, a 200 and a 200 shifted 20. The crossing of these two MAs tells me when longs or sells are in play.

It also employs 2 fast emas, a 3 and a 6. These give trading signals.

Although not required I'll look at the 5 minute for an entry when the fast emas line up on the 60.

There are other criteria I use for a final entry but like I said this is just a quicky.

The chart below is obviously a downtrend. If a coin flip told me to go long I'd be a fool to go long. It's not too difficult to see how TA clearly works in a trending market and it in and of itself gives an "edge". The so called "edge" doesn't exist.

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Quoting JauntyLoon
The Nazi World Order is going to start mandating 'vaxx' in Europe next year. People who don't submit to the twice-yearly clot shots will be fined, starved and put into concentration camps. How will this affect the European economy? Well, this could affect up to 25 - 33% of the population. What will be the effects of starving, abusing and killing off 25% of the population? I wouldn't want to be a long-term Euro bull. But then again, if America starts doing the same thing - and it probably will - then I wouldn't be a dollar bull either. At this point,...
Not much we can do about it. stupidity reigns. Some covidsmarts at the top are working on it. The german society did not do anything to stop WW2 genocide, it had to come from the top. Why do you think we are at the bottomOnly inform trying to wake up the sleepy and its been censored by people at the bottom

When revolution comes it will be unnecesary just like entering at the very tops or bottoms
POSTMASTER
Breakout downside a-comin'? (Demo account!)
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Quoting Winston Reed
It's not too difficult to see how TA clearly works in a trending market and it in and of itself gives an "edge". The so called "edge" doesn't exist. {image}

You're absolutely right, but the 'trick' is knowing when the trend is going sideways (which is where most people lose all their gains made during the strong uptrend/downtrend) and therefore when not to trade.

In 2021 there was a strong uptrend in everything (except certain FX pairs), so anyone who didn't make money in 2021 was a fool ... but if you backtest a system on 2021 results you're going to be in for a nasty surprise because very few years show such a strong continuous uptrend!
Quoting JauntyLoon
{quote} You're absolutely right, but the 'trick' is knowing when the trend is going sideways (which is where most people lose all their gains made during the strong uptrend/downtrend) and therefore when not to trade...
Well, you can still trade with the trend under such conditions, on the pullbacks. But you would need a wide stop loss. A 14 period ATR with a multiplier of 2.0 is good.
You don't know because you don't ask.
entering long

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POSTMASTER
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