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Roadmap - A Way To Read Markets
{quote} Excellent that you hit the first target. So, is this the one where you would normally take 80% off the table? I'm curious why the target of 1.1700, though? I'm sure it's because I'm not used to looking at the chart at these timescales, but I can't see any reason to expect it to go that high.
I'm curious why the target of 1.1700, though? I'm sure it's because I'm not used to looking at the chart at these timescales, but I can't see any reason to expect it to go that high. I was going for 1.1700 because when looking at the D1 chart it was the next place we may encounter support after 1.16750 (at least to my eyes). Also its a big round number. Those big round numbers often seem to act like a magnet for price. Look closely at my D1 chart and the quarter points. In my opinion they do a pretty good job of lining up with support and resistance. Obviously its not absolute and price itself is more important. And what may seem small on the D1 is often pretty big when you come down to the lower time frame. Furthermore when you have a large single candle as seen almost 2 weeks prior price can often fill it without to much trouble. Don't quote me on it but i call it a liquidity pool. It's an area in which I believe there were very few contracts and price was able to easily move through. Again don't quote me as I make up terms that fit me and not the real world Harvard educated wolfs of wall street.
I am still holding for 1.1700. Even though it is looking less likely to hit it. I imagine if I was at the charts yesterday I May have closed back at the top. Looks like we have some news coming up so i will keep a close eye on it
{quote} Ah, I think your analysis is sound. I've also noticed this phenomenon where price seems to rush through areas with either no horizontal levels or where it has previously had a large bar. It would be interesting to know why this actually is, but at the end of the day, I have no idea why any of this analysis works (but it does!) at the moment, I think it's really difficult to tell what EURUSD will do. However, several of the other euro pairs appear to be collapsing (EURJPY, EURCHF, EURCAD), so I would guess it's going down. Do you ever check...
at the moment, I think it's really difficult to tell what EURUSD will do. However, several of the other euro pairs appear to be collapsing (EURJPY, EURCHF, EURCAD), so I would guess it's going down. Do you ever check correlated markets? I find that often it can be quite insightful. Yes it seems to be ranging/consolidating. I'm still suspecting it will go up around 1.1700 before possibly coming back down. However I'm not willing to keep the trade open for the weekend. After news failed to give me a new high and NY also failing to give me a new high i closed the remaining 20% of my trade which was at 1.6%risk. But that gave me close to a 6:1 R:R with a +9.6% of account balance. With 80% (2.4% risk) of my trade closed out on the 18th at roughly 2:1 gives me +4.8% of account balance. So for that single trade I managed a total of +14.4% this week. I absolutely look at correlated pairs. If i see a setup short in USDX and a long in EUR/USD I have a high probability of success. So when it comes to EUR/USD i only look at USDX. However if i was looking at EUR/JPY for a setup I would look at EUR/USD and USD/JPY for a correlation.
https://www.earnforex.com/guides/wha...rity-in-forex/ (i did not read over entire page, but it seems to be correct)
Check out EUR/USD vs USDX below
Just some potential roadmap trades this week. I did not take these Just showing some that were available
{quote}Not bad! Seems like you must have reasonably good predictive ability to be able to get a good fraction trades right and high ROI. In this particular case, was the trade based off a cross of the five minute SMA?
{quote}
Interesting. I should look at the dollar index more. I wonder if would also be informative to look at other currency indices (e.g. euro index, Australian dollar index). I think I didn't try to do this in the past because the MT4 brokers don't tend to offer anything besides dollar index. However, I just noticed that you can view them on TradingView.
I currently use currency strength meters a lot, but index charts seem a lot more information rich.
{quote} It wasn't quite a full cross like the roadmap rules. But there was a lot lining up indicating it would go long. I only had reservations about the 1.16000 area. Since we know price often is attracted to big numbers I was fairly confident I could get out around 1.16000 if i didn't like what a saw {image}
{quote} Yeah most brokers don't have them and if they do you often have to have a certain size account. I have used trading view in the past as you can view pretty much anything with out having to pay. However some may only update every 5 minutes or even hours. I haven't tried looking int other indexes. I have looked into the US treasury bonds. Its nice to see them line up with USDX when looking more long term. for AUD I will look at silver and for CAD I look at OIL. I have to be careful though because sometimes i can become paralyzed with over...
The currency strength indicators I find are pretty useful. I also tried that Hanover one and couldn't get it to work (so it's good to know it's not just me).
One which I find particularly useful is MADDash, which is a free one released here on Forex factory. Unfortunately, it is closed source, so I can't tell you exactly how it works. But from gleaming the thread, I think it calculates the distance a certain currency pair is from its moving average on a given timeframe. Then, it will average the distance from the moving average of all currency pairs for a given currency (e.g. if EURCAD, EURAUD, EURCHF, EURJPY, EURUSD, EURNZD, EURGBP are 0.5, 1, 1.5, 0.5, 1, 1.5, and 1 ATR above their user defined moving average, respectively; then the average strength would be the average of the individual pair strengths... in this case 1).
In the case of your trade above, this is what the MADdash histogram would look like at the entry (a screenshot on 2021-10-18 at around 14:20).
The histogram suggests that over the longer terms (M30 and H1), EUR and USD are similarly strong (which makes sense because the currency is consolidating). However, on shorter time frames (M5 and M15 column) EUR is one of the strongest currencies. On the very short timescale, M1, EUR has pulled back, and this is why it is weak on M1 MADDash.
Anyway, I think that the indicator is useful for showing that there is breath behind the euro move. Also, it's tells us that euro is probably driving the increase in EURUSD (rather than USD per se).
Obviously, you'd have to study its behavior, but I think CSI's could complement roadmap quite well as a kind of addition to just using the MTF RSI indicator.
- #4,870
- Oct 25, 2021 7:45am Oct 25, 2021 7:45am
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Trader | 10,704 Posts
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
{quote} The histogram suggests that over the longer terms (M30 and H1), EUR and USD are similarly strong (which makes sense because the currency is consolidating). However, on shorter time frames (M5 and M15 column) EUR is one of the strongest currencies. On the very short timescale, M1, EUR has pulled back, and this is why it is weak on M1 MADDash.
EUR/USD gave us a nice consolidation trade plus a roadmap trade with my favorite 1-2 punch. Roadmap entry just over 2:1 with a target of 1.16000. second target if you didn't close it all would be 1.15750. Sometimes i use "scalfix" to adjust price scaling when it gets all squished up. If 1.1600 wasn't just below the entry i likely would of not taken the entry. But like mentioned a few days ago big numbers can often act like a magnet. I'm closed out 100% at 1.1600 as i am not yet confident in longer term direction.
- #4,876
- Nov 2, 2021 8:57am Nov 2, 2021 8:57am
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: couldn't give a flying duck | 7,365 Posts
- #4,878
- Nov 2, 2021 10:04am Nov 2, 2021 10:04am
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: couldn't give a flying duck | 7,365 Posts