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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #634,841
  • Oct 30, 2021 10:36am Oct 30, 2021 10:36am
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  • #634,842
  • Oct 30, 2021 11:00am Oct 30, 2021 11:00am
Hi Guys,
We can throw whatever we want into the markets. Techs vs Fundamentals will always be contentious. I personally don't trade fundamentals as it has let me down in more ways than one, in the past. What goes up must come down and vice versa. I am always in awe at Pat Chiko's way of reading the market with his daily scalping sessions. He does not take fundis into consideration. Expand that to a 4hr, daily, weekly and monthly timeframe and look at it like Pat and you will start to see what George is seeing, of course in a different way. It is simply an edge and not bulletproof. George has an edge that works for him and I am a similar trader but look at it slightly differently with my pivots. We could all be wrong but that is immaterial, as long as we follow our plan. We have important news events in the coming week which could be a spark to initiate the final quarter of this year. Just don't get caught on the wrong side. Nobody knows for sure what will happen.
Cheers.
Trade to trade another day
  • #634,843
  • Oct 30, 2021 11:03am Oct 30, 2021 11:03am
Quoting Mr.Burger
{quote} you short right? from when? at level?
1.3667 / 1.3750 ...

Quoting Wavegarrick
Hi Guys, We can throw whatever we want into the markets. Techs vs Fundamentals will always be contentious. I personally don't trade fundamentals as it has let me down in more ways than one, in the past. What goes up must come down and vice versa. I am always in awe at Pat Chiko's way of reading the market with his daily scalping sessions. He does not take fundis into consideration. Expand that to a 4hr, daily, weekly and monthly timeframe and look at it like Pat and you will start to see what George is seeing, of course in a different way. It is...
Well said Leon.

Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} The way u analyse the market is simply amazing.. The word analytical should have your picture next to it...bravo man bravo
Navin, please don't take my head off my shoulders, awesome man you are as well. Nice compliment from you as always, it means a lot. Thanks once again. I do hope we all end up being profitable as we all are putting in a lot of work and time into it.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #634,844
  • Oct 30, 2021 11:11am Oct 30, 2021 11:11am
ups............


















*** dont make it so serious






cheers
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not euphoria follower
  • #634,845
  • Oct 30, 2021 11:19am Oct 30, 2021 11:19am
I don't use techs or fundies and posted various live trades for months now, you decided if successful or not?...so what does this tell us ......over the years I've found that there are two types of traders, those who want to be right and those who want to make money.....which one are you?....Happy weekend
  • #634,846
  • Oct 30, 2021 11:26am Oct 30, 2021 11:26am
Quoting Bones
{quote} did he go to neutral or just change the threshold when price went to 13840 I also witnessed this range thing being as a primary reasoning after a 1000 pip wick south last year for short reasoning , {image} {image}
Bones, at the tail end of the analysis I gave there, I did state I will change my bias from bearish to Neutral if 1.3680 is violated, now having violated that level, there was a strong need to reassess the price from another perspective to know what's next and what could be wrong. This is not a defense of my bias or ideas, but a display of need for strong flexibility in a world of uncertainty. Always remember that I may be wrong and anyone may be wrong but in this world of forex trading, you need more rights than wrongs to remain in the business and this wrong times doesn't mean your analysis is useless but may need some modifications and adaptations.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #634,847
  • Oct 30, 2021 11:30am Oct 30, 2021 11:30am
Quoting Wavegarrick
Hi Guys, We can throw whatever we want into the markets. Techs vs Fundamentals will always be contentious. I personally don't trade fundamentals as it has let me down in more ways than one, in the past. What goes up must come down and vice versa. I am always in awe at Pat Chiko's way of reading the market with his daily scalping sessions. He does not take fundis into consideration. Expand that to a 4hr, daily, weekly and monthly timeframe and look at it like Pat and you will start to see what George is seeing, of course in a different way. It is...
like Pat, your posts are always interesting to read
Daddy, Brother, Lover, Little Boy
  • #634,848
  • Oct 30, 2021 11:41am Oct 30, 2021 11:41am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} From year 2011 to year 2020, only one year out of 10 years had 1072 pips, 9 other years had minimum of 1350 pips... Also noteworthy that it was year 2012 that had such 1072 pips range. The ranges further juxtaposed by introducing August to December Ranges also pointed minimum of 820 pips (August - December) last 10 years. So Making use of extreme possible new minimum independent of the previous yearly range data, still points at 90% chance of approximately 1100 pips occurrence. Now my question to you is, are we going to be roaming just 400...
I no longer do seasonal analysis. There are a lot of different metrics you can think of...
Btw, remembered about old projection made at the end of 2020, posted in February
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post13430095
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Quote
Now my question to you is, are we going to be roaming just 400 pips between November and December?
How should I know?
Air force
  • #634,849
  • Oct 30, 2021 11:50am Oct 30, 2021 11:50am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} I no longer do seasonal analysis. There are a lot of different metrics you can think of... Btw, remembered about old projection made at the end of 2020, posted in February https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post13430095{image} {quote} How should I know?
I have seen the chart you posted from February 26, it is cropped out and posted below.

You may know by simply by Combining November and December ranges of the last 10 years, then pick the Average.
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Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #634,850
  • Oct 30, 2021 12:06pm Oct 30, 2021 12:06pm
Quoting iqyu5an
ups............ *** dont make it so serious cheers {image}

I have similar chart setup since august but it’s only a long term



i am looking to sell from top
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #634,851
  • Oct 30, 2021 12:41pm Oct 30, 2021 12:41pm
Quoting Georginson
{quote} 1.3667 / 1.3750 ... {quote} Well said Leon. {quote} Navin, please don't take my head off my shoulders, awesome man you are as well. Nice compliment from you as always, it means a lot. Thanks once again. I do hope we all end up being profitable as we all are putting in a lot of work and time into it.

Coming from u, putting me in this light is such a massive compliment
Thank you George for such encouragement! ..lets make some corn next week
  • #634,852
  • Oct 30, 2021 1:06pm Oct 30, 2021 1:06pm
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Air force
  • #634,853
  • Edited 3:13pm Oct 30, 2021 2:17pm | Edited 3:13pm
H12 .
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  • #634,854
  • Oct 30, 2021 3:23pm Oct 30, 2021 3:23pm
My view is we'll see a surge up to 1.3850-1.39 on 4th Nov then a a meltdown to 1.33 and below rest of the year
  • #634,855
  • Oct 30, 2021 3:35pm Oct 30, 2021 3:35pm
Quoting mysterio
My view is we'll see a surge up to 1.3850-1.39 on 4th Nov then a a meltdown to 1.33 and below rest of the year
I think the "meltdown" period is behind us. Brexit is done, now its time to "fix" the 1.50 area and above. GU is bullish as it can be on the yearly chart and only bearish on the smallest timeframes...so every dip is a good buy. When I look at the US under Biden...its so fucked up its beyond imaginable. And it will get worse...eventually the USD will lose its reserve status and will turn into toilet paper. Euro? Who even knows if it will still be here in 10-20 years. It is great for tourists and travelling accross the EU, but economically its a disaster. It makes no sense to give 20 completely different countries with a different economy, the same currency. It won't survive longterm. And the rest? AUD? NZD? Those countries are gone...pure dictatorship and people over there even happy about it. They are safe against a flu, so it must be worth it. So in the end, british pound might be the safest currency to keep. It might be the "last man standing".
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #634,856
  • Edited 5:11pm Oct 30, 2021 3:43pm | Edited 5:11pm
Week Ahead with Nordling

Next week will be a crazy one with RBA, FOMC and BoE meetings. Let me share my expectations about these meetings.

Let's start with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA):

Australian core inflation rate is now at 2.1% and the inflation target of RBA is between 2-3%. So we can safely say that inflation is not a big concern in Australia. Unemployment rate currently stands at 4.6% which is even below the pre-pandemic level and considered as a natural unemployment rate. So with these numbers, i think RBA Monetary Decision will be a neutral and a quiet one.

FED (FOMC Meetings):

US core inflation stands at 4% which is double the FED's target. US unemployment came down to 4.8% which is considered as a natural unemployment rate. US GDP numbers came out lower than expected but it is still standing at 2% which is a good number overall. So that US Growth and Unemployment numbers are on target, it's time to deal with the inflation and start tapering. Hawkish FED is expected.

Bank of England (BoE):

UK Core inflation is 2.9% which quite high considering the target is 2%. It's definitely on the edge and concerning. UK unemployment is currently standing at 4.5% and it is natural. UK Growth rates came out very high standing at 5.5% right now, so we can easily say that with these numbers BoE can safely act on inflation. Hawkish BoE is expected. Probably an interest rate hike is coming this week. So i wouldn't recommend shorting the Pound against anything right now.
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #634,857
  • Oct 30, 2021 4:59pm Oct 30, 2021 4:59pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} I think the "meltdown" period is behind us. Brexit is done, now its time to "fix" the 1.50 area and above. GU is bullish as it can be on the yearly chart and only bearish on the smallest timeframes...so every dip is a good buy. When I look at the US under Biden...its so fucked up its beyond imaginable. And it will get worse...eventually the USD will lose its reserve status and will turn into toilet paper. Euro? Who even knows if it will still be here in 10-20 years. It is great for tourists and travelling accross the EU, but economically...
Yea I mean..nothing really to hugely to disagree about there. This is all long term fundamental stuff and speculative, I'm not a position trader strictly m1

Chart wise USD is headed to 96 area and GU has set up for a liquidity grab closer to 1.39 to head down for the rest of the year. DXY is just retracing after a major breakout on weekly.

I can't quite get why you're so down on the EU as it still has powerhouse economies-- UK is a bit of a basket case currently
  • #634,858
  • Oct 30, 2021 5:19pm Oct 30, 2021 5:19pm
Quoting mysterio
I can't quite get why you're so down on the EU as it still has powerhouse economies-- UK is a bit of a basket case currently
But thats the problem...some economies are strong, some weak, some productive, some less, too many differences, yet the same currency. If one country is doing poorly and would need central bank intervention, they can't do anything, as they share the currency with others. Now imagine the american continent would have one currency...it would be a mess. I get that the idea is to get the economies closer together this way...but not sure it can even happen, this is not the US, every country is totally different.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #634,859
  • Oct 30, 2021 5:39pm Oct 30, 2021 5:39pm
Quoting donfriday
{quote} I have similar chart setup since august but it’s only a long term i am looking to sell from top
I never loose! Either I win or learn!
Price action, my best indicator.
  • #634,860
  • Oct 30, 2021 8:00pm Oct 30, 2021 8:00pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
I don't use techs or fundies and posted various live trades for months now, you decided if successful or not?...so what does this tell us ......over the years I've found that there are two types of traders, those who want to be right and those who want to make money.....which one are you?....Happy weekend
Hi WaveSkierRob,

Admirable skill ?

Trading is a learned skill much like any other skill-based profession.
And in all cases the learning takes thought, application, dedication, perseverance, practice, experience and adaptability.
I imagine there must be people out there with an innate gift for trading, like virtuoso for Niccolò Paganini.

And I believe you’re consistently profitable trader without being born gifted, as you have worked at it to improve your skills to the required standard.

But, here’s some thought for such talented trader as you,

When you're so good people call hacks

Niccolò Paganini, an Italian violinist and street performer, was one of the most famous virtuoso of all time and the whispers about Paganini were thick but it was not only his abilities that made him a topic of conversation, but the thought that his skills were gifted to him from Lucifer himself.

Same goes to Sir Issacc Newton.
People were afraid of him. He had a math problem he could not solve and invented calculus to solve it.
The Queen knighted him to get him on her side just in case.

Even the son of God (he claimed to be one in this thread) couldn’t match your skill.
He was your associate, but now disappear.

There have always been conspiracy theorists who defy logic.
Hope Lucifer stay out of this business.

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I come from the future.
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