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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #634,821
  • Oct 30, 2021 7:53am Oct 30, 2021 7:53am
To me it seems that Gbpusd has started another down phase. Let’s wait and see. Currently we have a retracement, but the direction is down
  • #634,822
  • Oct 30, 2021 8:18am Oct 30, 2021 8:18am
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} It is red, but it is already priced in bc it came out just as expected. It was not a surprise. Well i am making good amount of pips in that "wilderness" dude. You know me long enough and you evidenced that with your own eyes. It was not once or twice either.
so technically speaking like a said that could be bullish ,I don't trade EU or follow the fundamental
thats a doji with a little Sunday time to open in a major pivot ,bears should be nervous ,more than likely it's a $ story considering focus which fits with my cable view.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #634,823
  • Oct 30, 2021 8:20am Oct 30, 2021 8:20am
Quoting Bones
{quote} yes, then we have the chart How I read it is there is no established trend ,it never left a range environment , this chart is very difficult to project over distance ,luckily for you it found that amazing pivot and under played there, like forever... In candles thats piercing line off support ,but I would look to the open .If I was looking to Year end now Im thinking around open , at the start of the year I was thinking bearish like you it bothers me if that is a double top why it messes around like that. {image}
To be honest I'm not good with chart presentation to bring home my observation and bias, I'm more comfortable with write-ups to drive home my point.

I have indulged myself by making use of your interesting chart to explain couple of things...

✓ Why this prolonged and seeming unending delay of a break out? My humble answer is, last year (2020) move to 1.14 was not in anyway realistic but no thanks to Covid the whole financial instruments had abnormal movements which affected the world economy to a great extent, which means that this year's consolidating on the wild moves of last year, hence stability is being cautiously aimed at and major financial players don't have too much fund to play around with.
✓ Since July to this October this year, from the chart you posted, you will clearly see a case of lower highs (1.3983, 1.3957, 1.3913 and 1.3834) and lower lows of (1.3670, 1.3570 and 1.3411). Based on my view of momentum analysis, it is somewhat obvious that the bears are gradually gaining momentum with the Lower Highs and Lower Lows stated earlier. This tight consolidation can't continue forever and something has to break eventually.
✓ I looked deeply into the chart and discovered that year 2013 and year 2020 had similar monthly chart patterns, Year 2014 and this Current year 2021 are building up with similar monthly chart patterns too (having June/July as highs and December as Low or possible Low)
✓ Also noteworthy 7 of the last 10 years Decembers have produced either high or low prices of the year.

The integration Range and Price Action have proven to be super effective (not perfect though) in anticipating levels that can break in future. From my research I discovered that exchange rates usually respond to distance covered over a period of time, that's why price gets to a particular zone and reverses before taking on a full scale reversal or continuation.

The only reason price will not touch either 1.45 or 1.31 is if this year fails to attain 1100 pips range this year, which has never happened in the last 20 years. My bearish bias for a target of 1.3150 will only be invalidated if price closes above 1.3830 this remaining part of year 2021, as 1.3830 is the mid price of this year's high of 1.4249 and Low of 1.3411.

Sorry for the long post, I'm just trying to drive home some point.
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Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #634,824
  • Oct 30, 2021 8:23am Oct 30, 2021 8:23am
Quoting Bones
{quote} so technically speaking like a said that could be bullish ,I don't trade EU or follow the fundamental thats a doji with a little Sunday time to open in a major pivot ,bears should be nervous ,more than likely it's a $ story considering focus which fits with my cable view. {image}
Okay Bones. I unfortunately couldn't get a convincing answer from you either. ECB was dovish, PCE was priced in, EU numbers were good but it still collapsed. And TA, i don't pay much attention to TA.

So from all the ideas and theories, mine is the only one that explains the big bearish move of the Euro.

Have a good weekend.
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #634,825
  • Oct 30, 2021 8:27am Oct 30, 2021 8:27am
Quoting Mr.Burger
{quote} {quote} you guys, perhaps I have missed your long time previous post, where did first sell or buy ( in out ) I want to see base on risk reward ratio --- Cheers
Please can you be more clear on this question?
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #634,826
  • Oct 30, 2021 8:33am Oct 30, 2021 8:33am
for long-term, make it simple : as long as Q3 low provide strong support, market will be bullish. If not, market will continue Q3 trend ( bearish ) , till Q4 or 2021 close for consolidation.

not euphoria follower
  • #634,827
  • Edited 9:01am Oct 30, 2021 8:33am | Edited 9:01am
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} Okay Bones. I unfortunately couldn't get a convincing answer from you either. ECB was dovish, PCE was priced in, EU numbers were good but it still collapsed. And TA, i don't pay much attention to TA. So from all the ideas and theories, mine is the only one that explains the big bearish move of the Euro. Have a good weekend.
a lot of your reasoning is based on your opinion ,never reported by anyone
the market moved on the news realtime ,you know your pie in sky ideas are way out there=wrong ,conspiracy theory no way of knowing ideas
your never trade fundamental without some tech knowledge as a retailer since you don't have the resource
thats why nearly all retail are tech .I dabble fundi only for self improvement ,only on the themes everyone cares about

You can try answering all those yellow news items or spend time more wisely learning tech and filter everything but red items
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #634,828
  • Oct 30, 2021 8:41am Oct 30, 2021 8:41am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} To be honest I'm not good with chart presentation to bring home my observation and bias, I'm more comfortable with write-ups to drive home my point. I have indulged myself by making use of your interesting chart to explain couple of things... ✓ Why this prolonged and seeming unending delay of a break out? My humble answer is, last year (2020) move to 1.14 was not in anyway realistic but no thanks to Covid the whole financial instruments had abnormal movements which affected the world economy to a great extent, which means that this...
see thats a good post ,we can't bank on this not being the lowest range in 20Years at all is my major point ,what you do with ranges is valid but not stand alone valid ,no doubt in my mind you are good at picking up on major pivots ,but you must have some doubt off the monthly today.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #634,829
  • Oct 30, 2021 8:43am Oct 30, 2021 8:43am
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} So from all the ideas and theories, mine is the only one that explains the big bearish move of the Euro. Have a good weekend.
There was no ECB intervention, look at the dollar crosses. gold fell as well as the pound. rather, it is a dollar problem.
I don't really trust fundamental analysis, I prefer technical analysis.
  • #634,830
  • Oct 30, 2021 8:46am Oct 30, 2021 8:46am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} Please can you be more clear on this question?
you short right? from when? at level?
Daddy, Brother, Lover, Little Boy
  • #634,831
  • Oct 30, 2021 8:54am Oct 30, 2021 8:54am
Hi good people,

Let's all think about it ... we are all the same ...

People would rather be right ... than be happy ...

The need to be right ... is an obstacle to change for the better ...

Even if the change is a positive one... we oppose it... because, we feel that by accepting it... we would admit that we were wrong in the past.

Which... of course... is not very comfortable for Ego...

In fact ... if we want to change now ... we shouldn't feel bad about the choices we've made in the past ...

This is how we learn ... since we were born ... only from our own mistakes ... or from the mistakes of others ... (preferably...)

Thanks to everyone who read these lines!

All of you.

God bless us all!
The only impartial feeling is love. It is also the only feeling of God.
  • #634,832
  • Oct 30, 2021 9:03am Oct 30, 2021 9:03am
Quoting Bones
{quote} so I already said this is a very dangerous method your using ,nothing changed my mind... If I was you I would add the monthly charts to your work for any credibility and also help the system ,you know with that level of certainty it's going there ? read the monthly ,someone like you needs the monthly in your favour If it fell past that low off bat then that certainty could be warranted .
talking about years of data and months of data enough backup and so far he proven right to the pip 1.3830 as price respected every time it revisit this level being the 50% of the years range.

His way of seeing the market is the way of a position trader which may not be suitable for day trader though but respect his knowledge and way of seeing things well before it happens.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #634,833
  • Edited 9:55am Oct 30, 2021 9:15am | Edited 9:55am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} talking about years of data and months of data enough backup and so far he proven right to the pip 1.3830 as price respected every time it revisit this level being the 50% of the years range. His way of seeing the market is the way of a position trader which may not be suitable for day trader though but respect his knowledge and way of seeing things well before it happens.
did he go to neutral or just change the threshold when price went to 13840
I also witnessed this range thing being as a primary reasoning after a 1000 pip wick south last year for short reasoning ,
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #634,834
  • Oct 30, 2021 9:19am Oct 30, 2021 9:19am
Quoting Bones
{quote} a lot of your reasoning is based on your opinion ,never reported by anyone the market moved on the news realtime ,you know your pie in sky ideas are way out there=wrong ,conspiracy theory no way of knowing ideas your never trade fundamental without some tech knowledge as a retailer since you don't have the resource thats why nearly all retail are tech .I dabble fundi only for self improvement ,only on the themes everyone cares about You can try answering all those yellow news items or spend time more wisely learning tech and filter everything...
My theory is based on and backed with science dude. Months ago I showed you a university level macroeconomics book where i read "gdp and inflation is bad for the currency" Economists wrote it, not me.

I am so sick and tired of discussing the same thing with you again and again. What's funny is you saw me making lots pips trading this way for months and you are still denying it. Well, that's your decision but i will keep making money this way. Enjoy your weekend.
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #634,835
  • Oct 30, 2021 9:19am Oct 30, 2021 9:19am
Quoting Bones
{quote} see thats a good post ,we can't bank on this not being the lowest range in 20Years at all is my major point ,what you do with ranges is valid but not stand alone valid ,no doubt in my mind you are good at picking up on major pivots ,but you must have some doubt off the monthly today.
Yes, there are cautious doubts.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #634,836
  • Edited 10:28am Oct 30, 2021 9:39am | Edited 10:28am
transitory ,the unknown time span which is handy for those saying it
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #634,837
  • Oct 30, 2021 9:44am Oct 30, 2021 9:44am
Quoting Bones
transitory ,the unknown time span which is handy for those saying it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SD7IwntLcVs {image}
Just sell it everytime they claim that it's transitory against a hawkish CB such as NZD, NOK and GBP.

So it can be handy for you too. I did that when Lagarde said it is transitory and now i got 90 pips profit from eu and 90 from eursek
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #634,838
  • Oct 30, 2021 9:58am Oct 30, 2021 9:58am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} To be honest I'm not good with chart presentation to bring home my observation and bias, I'm more comfortable with write-ups to drive home my point. I have indulged myself by making use of your interesting chart to explain couple of things... ✓ Why this prolonged and seeming unending delay of a break out? My humble answer is, last year (2020) move to 1.14 was not in anyway realistic but no thanks to Covid the whole financial instruments had abnormal movements which affected the world economy to a great extent, which means that this...
The way u analyse the market is simply amazing..
The word analytical should have your picture next to it...bravo man bravo
  • #634,839
  • Oct 30, 2021 10:16am Oct 30, 2021 10:16am
@Nav
The girl did not make his choice yet..??

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If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #634,840
  • Oct 30, 2021 10:19am Oct 30, 2021 10:19am
The tattooing culture? Is it a way of having ones own Facebook on ones own body?
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